dukeaugustus

Month 3 (Mar 2012) Update: +247 pips

 

This week ends my 3rd month of the 2012 forward test of this, as well as end of first quarter of 2012.

 

March single month results: +247 pips

 

First quarter (Jan - Mar) results: +1121 pips

 

For details of per currency and per week results, see the weekly updated post #4.

 

General thoughts:

 

(1) March was the worse performing month so far in 2012, with the last 2 weeks having results of -166 pips and then break-even. Fortunately, the month still ended up in a net profit of +247 pips, mainly from strength of early part of March.

 

(2) For my own trading account, I actually ended the last week at over 90 pips profit (instead of breakeven): After GbpJpy took full profit, I was at the screen when I saw EurJpy made over 50 pips, then hit a long term trend line I had drawn previously for my other trading system, and bounced strongly back down. So I decided to close that trade out at a few pips above breakeven before the full loss. However, for consistency of this thread, I recorded a full loss for for EurJpy on this last week.

 

(3) After 3 full months of not a single trade, I will no longer use EurChf for my live trade. With Swiss bank authority interfering with this pair, it just no longer moves anymore in 2012. The closest to trigger was within 10 pips, once, in the entire 3 months period. Last week in March it hardly moved more than 10 or 15 pips either side of the week's open price. Just not worth the hassle of putting on trades for this.

 

(4) I have not decided what pair, if any, to replace EurChf in my basket. Any suggestion is welcomed.

 

(5) Given the slowness of this system. And the seeming lack of activities on this thread. I will probably only gives update here once every 2 to 3 months from now on. But I will try to update post #4 at least once every 2 to 3 weeks.

 

(6) Overall, I am still happy this this method, for something that requires only 10 minutes at start of week to place pending orders, and another 5 minutes max per week in managing this, I can't complain about the +1000 pips in 3 months.

:)

 

I love marketers!

 

I so agree, they are always good for a laugh.

 

I have recently found a very old page selling something called red-phoenix on this page:

http://www.fxredphoenix.com/vip.html

 

And I immediately started out laughing, because I also pulled out the recent page from Mr. Howard Hark for CovertCode here

http://covertcodesite.com

 

Notice anything obvious?? . . . Except for a name change from "De@n Gallagher" to "How@rd Hark", and changing his family story from "two handsome sons" to "two beautiful daughters", the wordings of the two letters are identical! LOL!!

 

These marketers are so LAZY, they don't even bother writing new sales letter any more. He has the same sale pitch WORD-FOR-WORD. It makes you wonder (or not) if anything he said in the sales letter is even true? Did he really work at some German Hedge Fund, and then broke some secret code and stole someone's formula?? Of course not, but it makes good fictional reading for the newbie traders.

 

It is both funny and sad, actually.

Recently I received an affiliate email linking me to this site: (I took out the affiliate link already):

 

http://[email protected]/

(change "@" to "a")

 

What caught my eyes was his claim of 92% win rate at better than 1:1 risk:reward ratio.

 

Naturally I assumed it was just hot air.

 

For example, his so-called video proof claim of "1442 pips in 40 days" is very misleading. He is counting every last pip in a trend before reversing. Which is of course impossible in real trading.

 

But having said that, I used his FAQ suggestions of SL = 45 pips, and TP = 50, 100, or 140 pips. And re-looked at those cherry-picked 40 days stretch in the video:

 

if TP1 = 50 pips, he had total of 8 wins (and zero loss) netting 400 pips; and

if TP2 = 100 pips, he had 6 wins and 2 losses, netting (6 x 100 pips) - (2 x 45 pips) = 510 pips; and

if TP3 = 140 pips, he had 6 wins and 2 losses, netting (6 x 140 pips) - (2 x 45 pips) = 750 pips.

 

These results are not bad at all. Although I would be happier if I can see his trades for longer than 40 days, like a year or so. We all know forex marketers love to cherry-pick their chart to show the best results.

 

Also I notice there was a potential losing trade in his video on a late Thursday that he totally ignored by saying no trading on Friday. However, even had I included that losing trade, at 45 pips loss, the overall gain is still very good.

 

Just wondering if anyone has seen this or the indicator before?

any one can upload it again the link does not work

 

In the mirrored link provided by Skygod in post #4, it seems at least the one from 2Shared still works at least as of couple of minutes ago. I did not check all the other mirrored links. But at least one still works. cheers.

Looks like COG (Center of Gravity) trading, I can't remember the exact thread that has COG shared here on II. You may need to do a search for either "Center of Gravity" or some system by the name of "MBFX". (or something like that)

hello could you tell how you count waves through AO. I am also using AO these days but still am not familiar with it.

Thanks.

 

I use the AO wave counting method per the A*I*M*S method, already shared somewhere else in this forum.

 

My understanding of counting wave with AO is still not perfect, my own style is to try to identify wave 3 "after-the-fact" and then attempt to profit from wave 5.

 

My method: on eurusd M5 chart, if price moves strongly in one direction late asian or early london session (this is subjective, I usually look for a sustained move over 75 pips or more), I will assume that is a potential wave 3, and I will then visually note the corresponding peak or valley of AO of this move. Then whenever AO crosses the zero line to the opposite side, I now assumes that retracement as wave 4; finally I will look for AO cross zero back again in the direction of wave 3, and I will take that as indication of going into wave 5.

 

There are other issues I also keep track of. For example, if my wave 4 retraces past the start of my wave 3, then I will consider my wave 3 as wrong, and the new move is now the new wave 3. Also I keep track of ADR, if my wave 3 has pushed price to about or well beyond average daily range, then I will not try to trade wave 5. Also, my "subjective" feel for how large a move makes a wave 3 changes over time. Simply lots of screen time, and "feel" for it after looking at it for a while. My general rule-of-thumb is a move of at least over 55 pips, ideally at least 70 or more pips, but less than 80% of average daily range.

 

As I said earlier, not a perfect method. Sometimes I get lucky, and my wave 5 turns out to be wave 3 and can give me a nice long run. Other times, my wave 5 will give me only a small run in my desired direction. Either case I try to profit from it.

 

And of course, sometimes in ranging days, it is very difficult to get a good wave count read. Then I do not use AO wave count method on such days.

 

Hope what I explains make sense. The concept is actually simple, but I am not very good at explaining it. If you want further reading on this, I think the "i*trade*A*I*M*S" manual does a better job of explaining than I do. Although they do not really trade the waves, but his way of using AO to count waves seems to click with me.

is this stuff working with u guys

 

It has been over 9 months since I started this sharing thread. To be honest, my trading now-a-days uses mostly price action + trend lines/support/resistance, and I also use the AO to help me count waves.

 

But to answer your question, I have found convergence/divergence in general do have some predictive value for my own trading. At one time I was using RSI, then for the past 6 months or so I was also playing with AO. But I think it does not matter so much which "oscillator" indicator you use (RSI, MACD, AO, Stoch, etc.) to look for divergence/convergence, but more on how well you as trader is "in-tune" with the particular indicator in its reading the price action. And to be good at that, I think requires personal experience and experiments, because each trader will find different solution that best fits his/her trading style.

 

For myself, the only oscillator-type indicator I use now is the AO, but I use it more for counting waves, less so for seeing divergence. (But of course I do pay heed if there is an obvious divergence coming up).

On 3/2/2012, I posted a similar request at post #45 on the "Currency Messenger" thread

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/16259-REQ-Currency-Messenger/page5

because this came from the same team who put out the Currency Messenger only a few months ago.

 

When I posted that post, at the time, I was complaining about the fact that the sales video was numbingly long and useless at over 33 minutes, and the fact they were using an unknown payment processor called "algocharge".

 

Funny enough, I just followed your new link, it seems they have done away with the video, and they also changed the payment processor to Clickbank.

 

Both are good changes. But I wonder if they are actually reading our threads here at II?

 

Despite my own reservation about this How@rd H@rk guy, will be interested in having a read if anyone is willing to share.

Thanks for share to both frida and meek13.

 

A quick question for frida, I too have been playing with the AO indi recently in my own trading. So I am curious, may I ask how do you use the AO indi?

 

Do you look at just the zero line. For example, buy only if AO above zero, and sell only if below zero?

 

Or do you look at only change of AO color. For example, even if AO is below zero, if bright red changes to dark red, that is already enough as confirmation towards buy?

 

Hope my question makes sense. And congrat on the 50 pips today.

I can confirm at least the sales page is still up, and always have at least "last 4 copies left" if I try to close the web page for the first time, and then "last 2 copies" if I try to close the page the second time. And if you close to page and re-open the page from start. Guess what, yes, it still has "4" copies then "2" copies left when you want to navigate away from that page.

 

If it is truly good, even at $500 a pop, surely 20 copies should be long gone by now?!

 

Not very honest sales tactic, but very common nevertheless.

H0ward H@rk is back for more

 

the other day I received this email, titled "We care about your success, mates":

 

Hi

 

We always care about our customer's success, so we

try to give them the best trading resources at the best

price that we can.

 

We have decided to let you access the Covert Code

at half-off special pricing for one more day.

 

So, if you haven't gotten Covert Code yet,

here is a good time to do so...

 

Keep in mind the only other people to ever see this incredible

resources are our private clients, who paid tens thousands of dollars

for coaching seminars

 

So... Is Covert Code For You?

 

Listen, I'm obviously biased but I firmly believe

this is the BEST possible trading system you can get

for your trading career.

 

You can bank on it.

 

Go here and invest in Covert Code today.

 

You'll be glad you did.

 

Talk soon,

Howard Hark

 

The link send me to this super boring with no real content over-30-minutes long sales pitch:

http://covertcodesite.c0m/

 

(don't bother watching it unless you have nothing better to do with 33 minutes of your life. I watched it and regretted spending the whole time watching)

 

and of course, if you hurry, you can get in to his inner circle by going to this page (which he so "generously" revealed after you watched through over 30 minutes of his mind-numbing sales pitch):

 

getcovertcode.c0m

 

At $97, I was almost tempted to get it just for laughs, but then I notice they don't take Paypal, and I never heard of the payment processor "algocharge".

 

Considering his great "reputation" from selling the Currency Messenger only 3 months earlier, and wondering why he is selling another product so much cheaper so soon after that, I think I will pass.

 

But if anyone is brave enough to purchase the C0vert C0de, I will still be interested in at least taking a look at it.

 

Meanwhile, I have just clicked the "unsubscribe" button from his future emails.

Month 2 (Feb 2012) Update: +358 pips

 

This past week was the last complete trading week for February, so here is a quick monthly update of my forward test for this.

 

February single month gain: +358 pips.

 

Net January + February gain: +874 pips.

 

For details of week-to-week and currency-by-currency details, please see weekly update in post #4.

 

General thoughts:

(1) Seems to be still performing positively so far;

(2) My biggest problem is my own trading psychology (read: I still try to micro-manage this, and always to my own detriment, for example, I still find myself closing winning trades early)

(3) Looking at 2011 results, this had a great run from Jan thru April, let's see if the next few months still add more pips to my account.

There is no real reviews anywhere apart from affiliates websites, nothing on FPA only this : hxxp://www.forexpeacearmy.com/public/review/www.scientificforex.com

 

I saw another review (which is more of a "preview" than "review") at Post #3 on this page:

http://[email protected]/forex-forum/tr@ding-systems/1683-scientific-forex-christin@[email protected]

[change all "@" to "a"]

 

 

Not an "actual user's review", and it is an affiliate site, it is more of a "read through the material and comment". But does get me curious about it.

Interesting, seems to involve breaking of long-running trendline as trigger combined with some oscillator type indicator.

 

But maybe Google Translate does not work quite well. What does he mean by "Our offer is unique because the Trading Method Windwinner is Weakness."?

 

Also, it is 1290 in euro. Not cheap.

Nice share kraven. After reading your thread, I have found myself looking out for "kraven's reversal candle" even at my M5 and M15 charts as part of my other trading methods. Surprisingly your "reversal candle" has very good accuracy even at such lower time frame. Thanks.

I just took a quick glance at the last two full weeks' (10 trading days) results, including today's session, (no time for longer back-test yet), I am seeing:

 

usdchf 10 losses, 0 win. And

eurusd 9 losses, 1 win.

 

I do not need help to have 19 losses to 1 win. At risk/reward ratio of 0.6/1, I will need 10 straight wins to come back to break-even.

 

Although this may be just a short term losing streak, but not very encouraging results at all.

Yeah, this does smell very fishy:

 

Why use a demo account to prove his method? Why shows only 3 days? It will be far more convincing if he shows his live account, over a much longer period of trading.

 

Also, if he is making +5% per day, over just a year or two, by compounding he must be multimillionaire by now. Then why sell to only 10 people for $8,777? That is only $87,770 total. Surely a tiny drop for a multimillionaire. For example, if his account is over $1.7 million dollars, then he can make more than $87,770 every "day" if he makes 5% or more per day (as he claims).

 

And if he is sharing the method out of the goodness of his heart, then why stop at only 10 people? Why not share to more people at a more affordable price?

 

Anyway, as I said in my first post, I doubt we will see this method shared. But it will be interesting to know what method he is trying to sell though.

This guy claims his system cannot lose, and will sell to only 10 people:

 

http://www.youtube.c0m/watch?v=gB801EhazZg&feature=youtu.be

 

He is the same guy from @siaForexMentor. Which generally has a positive rep.

 

But I always worry when I hear the "not possible to lose" claim.

 

Although I doubt we will ever see this one shared. But decided to post this here anyway, just for everyone's reference.

There have been several previous threads on this already. Here are the ones I can still easily find:

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/8789-Forex-Morning-Trade?highlight=forexmorningtrade

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/11266-Forex-Morning-Trade-EA?highlight=forexmorningtrade

 

But not sure why you're interested, here is the official results links page (change "@" to "a", and "0" to "o"):

http://[email protected]/trading-journal/

 

You will see that has been losing 4 months straight since October 2010: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan. Not sure when it will (if ever) recover.

Month 1 (Jan 2012) Update: 500+ pips

 

I have been, and will attempt to continue to, update on a weekly basis directly into Post #4 on the front page of this thread.

 

Then on a monthly basis, I will also try to do a simple summary report of my 2012 forward test up to the end of the last full week for that month.

 

So here is my first such monthly report: for January 2012:

 

For actual detailed break-down figures, please see Post #4.

 

Overall, the method is working out as planned. The first month of 2012 started off well. With total just over 500 pips in one month (approx 516 pips). Which is well above back-test average.

 

So I will continue to test with a live account. But I do expect some losing weeks to come. The long term expected weekly average was about 76 pips, or expected 300 pips per month. So January's weekly average of 129 pips and month's total of 500+ pips are both way above expected average.

 

Although I am not complaining. But I do expect the numbers to eventually come back down to long-term average. So I would not be surprised if we see some losing weeks soon.

 

Side Note:

(1) My live account did not get triggered on the last week for the USDCAD winning trade. For some reason, my broker must had increased the spread to at least 5 pips or more when the price actually reached and surpassed the pending order price by a few pips, before retracing. So I could only sit on the sideline watching it went back to take-profit price, without my money on it. Ah, well, that's trading for me. At least no harm's done.

 

(2) I notice EURCHF has not triggered any trade for a while now. The weekly range is now far tighter than last year's. But since non-triggered pending orders do not take up any margin, so I will still keep placing the pending orders at the start of each week. But if this continues for much longer, I will either have to (a) consider lowering my TP an SL and where Pending Order is placed, or (b) drop this pair completely. We'll see.

I have long noticed that there is a strong negative correlation between the value of the forex system sold, versus the number of internet marketers promoting the said system.

 

The fact that just about every forex affiliate out there is flooding my inbox promoting this (everyone all so "generous" giving me extra bonuses if I click their affiliate link to buy this), I am now far less excited about this than when I first read about it.

 

Also, mitch's post about Kevin Eaton being Jason Fielders programmer, and I also notice the price is just about the same as many other over-priced forex systems previously put out by Jason F.

 

I think this is very likely to be another over-priced over-hyped forex flavor of the month system. Sigh! Too bad, because I did have very high expectation in the early days for this. Now no longer.

I think its fishy. He is only showing his last results from Nov 2011

 

I can think of at least two possibilities:

 

1 - his equity curve probably only went side-way, or went down, during December - January, so better to not show it,

 

or

 

2 - he either stopped his test, or took holiday, since November. After-all, many traders do take a break around Christmas and New Years time.

 

One is hiding the recent unprofitable months, another is genuine no trading to share. We'll never know for sure, until we can see the method, and do some back-testing.

Newbie, How did you manage to change the Pivot Point Level colour, Do you have the decompiled file ?

 

Funny, I can see the pivots on all timeframes

 

Maybe Newbie will have a better answer for you. But, I believe there are two standard templates, one for white background, one for black background. The pivot line color is pre-set and differs according to the template you use. (But within the template, I do not think the user has option to change the pivot line color, though I am not a power mt4 user, so I can be wrong.).

 

On timeframe, the pivot lines still appear on different timeframe. We can only adjust the hour offset to determine at what time you want the pivot line to start drawing for that trading day.

 

A special note here: the author uses ThinkForex, which has broker time equals to GMT currently. As the pivot is calculated by end of day for each day, if your broker uses a different timezone, your pivot lines will differ from the ones the author uses in his videos. For example, I like to use alpari UK for most of my mt4 charting, but alpari is running at GMT+1, so the pivot lines on my chart are usually off by a few pips from the official lines. But I do not think that makes a big difference in the long run.

Been getting a lot of emails promoting this, here is their page specifically for forex:

www.forexprofitpredictor.c0m/CPO/2

(change "c0m" to "com")

 

some of the statistics from the video (if true):

 

* 60% win ratio

* slightly worse than 1:1 risk/reward

* took 1425 trades over 4 months

* average about 12 trades per day

* the account grew from $5000 to $30000

* there were long periods of equity curve side-way move as well as sharp drawdowns.

 

My current take on this:

(1) He seems to be trading this on far shorter timeframe than when trading on Dow. If one can trade more than 10 trades in forex per day, then it was not trading as swing or position trading as I understand it;

(2) One has to trade very large "number" of trades in order to post significant equity gain. For example, he needed over 1400 trades to post the kind of gain he is posting

(3) I like it so far because he is not claiming unrealistic win ratio or get rich overnight in only very few trades.

Already shared in another thread:

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/16006-1hourforex