fxfxfx

Yep,

That is what I meant ;)

Enty: Below the low of the blue candle - StopLoss Above the S/R Fib Confluence

Target:

2 Options:

1) 2x the risk

2) Wait how price re-acts at the last swing-low

Cheers

fxfxfx

Cheers

fxfxfx

It appears to me it was the second case occurring on 1H TF. Long UP bar with little wicks and long DOWN bar with little wicks, which, although it wasn't as long as the preceeding bar, did close in its lower half. Both formed a tweezers or railroad pattern, and this in Candlestick language should be a reversal formation. So that would make a legitimate entry. Do you confirm?

 

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/9949/201106101424.png

Hi alright,

Regarding your question of the re-entry: In this case you must make a deeper analysis as this is NOT a pin-bar it is more kind of doji (As you already recognized it correctly). Move down to a 1-hour chart and look how the move was formed -> Was it a normal move up and a normal move down OR a STRONG MOVE to S/R and then hardly BOUNCED back ?

If it was a normal move up and down -> Forget it...

If you see that 1 hourly candle moved to the S/R very STRONG (like a + and - pole of a magnet) and was STRONGLY rejected (like the + and + pole of a magnet) then the re-entry would be OK.

A strong UP-move (candle with very small wicks and a BIG BODY) and a strong DOWN-move (candle with very small wicks and a BIG BODY) form also together (when both are seen as one) a PIN-BAR (Hope this was not too complicated)...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Thank you for sharing your knowledge, my friend. I'm really enjoying all this.

So you mean to not enter at the pinbar close but wait for the price to retrace back to its 50%? Of course the r/r is much better but would we not miss the trade if the price didn't retrace?

On a side note, I've just updated my pic as I see, on what we can call a well established trend by now, what could be one more potential entry on another confluence and a doji bar, good for over 100 pips already. Am I speaking sh*t??

 

http://img862.imageshack.us/img862/8458/201106100920.png

Hi alright,

Let me explain me how I see the market situation:

Market was in a clear sideways-market -> This means: Lots of orders are now accumulated -> this means: The longer the sideways-market - the more powerful will be the breakout move.

In addition to this we have a change of trend. What does this mean ? Due to the fact the a NEW TREND hast now established, chances are low that the market suddenly change the trend again ;)

To summarize:

When I am in the middle of a strong trend or a sideways-market, my potential exit-point would be the last swing high or swing low (It depends on the market-situation).

When I am in the beginning of a NEW TREND - I expect that the market makes a bigger move and therefore I let the market breathe a little bit more. Also my expected target would be higher.

Regarding the 50% entry - Let me explain this to you:

You can either enter at 50% - then you have a little bit of risk that the market will not re-visit this level -> What can happen: Nothing -> Worst case you missed the move - but it is not a loss !

You can also do this:

Split your order in 2 parts ;)

1st Order with 1% Risk at the 50%-Level and target 2x your risk

2nd Order with 1% Risk at the Low of the pin-bar (In this case) and target 2x your risk or a S/R line in the near of it (Please note: The main trend goes to our favour)

So what can happen ?

* Price retraces to the 50% Level and does not retrace to the low and hit our stop-loss -> We lost 1% while risking 1% -> We close the 2nd pending order which was not triggered as the marked proofed to us that our analysis was wrong.

* Price triggers our normal entry-level AND our 50% entry-level and then suddenly retrace and hit our stop-loss -> Lost 1% +1% = 2% while risking 2%

* Price triggers our normal entry-level AND our 50% entry-level and hit the tp of the trade with the 50%-entry and then suddenly retrace and hit the SL of the normal entry -> Gained 2% and lost 1% while risking 2% -> Still made 1% Profit

* Price triggers our normal entry-level but NOT our 50% entry-level -> Gained 2% - Lost 0% -> Total Gain 2% while risking 1%

* Price triggers our normal entry-level AND our 50% entry-level and hit the tp of the trade with the 50%-entry and also the TP of the trade with the normal entry -> Gained 2% PLUS 2% -> We made our 4% Profit while risking 2%:) - So potential Risk/Reward is 1:2 as I stated before and also we have the option that we can move the SL of the trade with the normal entry to breakeven and play forward to the next S/R without any risk and already a locked gain.

In this case I wouldn't have taken the 50% option as it happend at the beginning of the new trend.

Hope this helps.

As far as I can see (at least at my chart) We would already be in profit and out of the trade if we had taken the PIN-Bar with the normal-entry ;) -> Assuming that we do not babysit the trade and trail the Stop-Loss ...

Hope this was useful...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Thank you for sharing your knowledge, my friend. I'm really enjoying all this.

So you mean to not enter at the pinbar close but wait for the price to retrace back to its 50%? Of course the r/r is much better but would we not miss the trade if the price didn't retrace?

On a side note, I've just updated my pic as I see, on what we can call a well established trend by now, what could be one more potential entry on another confluence and a doji bar, good for over 100 pips already. Am I speaking sh*t??

 

http://img862.imageshack.us/img862/8458/201106100920.png

Hi Diesel,

Thx for you great contribution ! This makes me really happy when I see when users are helping other users - This makes this really a wonderful place.

I see no "Thanks"-button (Obviously I thanked too many times yesterday/today) but again: THANK YOU :)

fxfxfx

Here is a secret share just for my indo friends in this thread!

 

I have just had professionally coded my own Custom Indicator that may be a help to those who already understand how to plot swings and breaks of them. I have never shared this before but wanted to save it for a special moment...

 

Below is an image of recent EURUSD. In the picture, the indicator is programed to follow fairly large swings however that can be customized whatever way you like. You can also customize how many pips it must break the swing by.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/jt.gif

 

and here it is. Enjoy!

 

http://www.mediafire.com/?xh6quaxcxs91xmt

 

this is for your personal use and not to be resold. Thanks for respecting my wishes on this.

Hi alright,

Very very good !

I see that you exactly analyzed the market AND you could also remember what I said how I trade :)

Just food for thought: What if you entered at the 50%-Retracement of the PIN-BAR (not the swing - the bar itself) and put your SL slightly above the high of the pin-bar.

How would the R/R then be ?

;)

Cheers

and thanks for not just following the thread but also actively PARTICIPATING with posts and screenshots.

Well from your statement in your 1st post

 

I take it, if you look at my picture again, the first arrow would mark the start of a downtrend since the previous low was violated, so we could enter short on a pinbar which formed at the confluence of fib and res line, taking notice as well that the higher resistance looks quite strong as retested and rejected violently a few times. That would have given over 100 pips till the lowest bottom. But here money management would be needed ;)

 

P.S. - was forgetting: risk/reward, considering as SL the high of the blue bar preceeding the pin and as TP at least the low at the point indicated by the 1st arrow, would be 1:1.5

 

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4206/201106092335001.png

Hi alright,

I also do not know this - except to delete the levels in the fib-tool itself.

It is also not needed to delete them.

It was only an excercise that you know what I mean by "Fibonaccy-cluster confluence". When we trade we apply this an other way -> But you must know what I mean by that -> And therefore also 1A and good work.

And: whow -> With such a speed :)

Cheers and thx

btw: How are you doin with all this Price-action stuff ? Did you get some trading ideas ? If not - do not worry - I will provide you with a few ;)

fxfxfx

Here'smy homework. Unfortunately I don't know how to delete single lines on the MT4 fibo tool, or I should say when many of them are overlapping, like in this case.

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/7471/201106092130.png

Hi izogrey,

Thx for you comments ;)

As you all may already recognized: These S/R-Lines acts as magnets ;)

A short question izogrey: May I ask you what kind of system(s) you used before and how successful are you ?

Are you following this thread because of a need or because of interest ?

I am only asking because I would like to know more about the background(s) of the users which are following this thread ...

P.S.: I do not see the "Thank you" - button anymore (May I pressed it too much today for all the useful posts which showed when a student made the homework correct)...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi fxfxfx,

 

Yep, you're right. This kind of analysis takes no more than a couple of seconds, under one minute, in any case ( after all the lines and fibos are already on the chart ). The secret is to do it totally detached from the result, just like when seeing a flower, or the clouds on the sky. The result ( which is the analysis itself ) isn't directly extracted by me. It appears from the chart, somehow on its own. I'm just quiet in order to "hear" it ... or "see" it, I don't know. :-)

 

It's very relaxing .. and I must say, in total contrast with what I practiced until now. :-)

 

And a last beautiful prove for this kind of analysis: the line noted "First stop down" has been placed when the price was just breaked down at "Breakout level". Very fine line ....

 

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/8995/aufirststop.gif

 

OK, I'm finished with AU, I will continue analysing and posting only UC, but I will continue the analysis of AU on my own, just because ... I cannot monitor only one pair. It's too boring for me ... :-)

 

And I want to thank fxfxfx for this great contribution, but also to you, the other homeworkers. It's great to see other opinions, styles ... and also it's great to see the unity in all these different opinions. Thank you all !!

 

Cheers

Fibonacci-Cluster at S/R

Hi all,

Next excercise:

Please do this with the last major move:

In an up-trend:

Try to find fibonacci-retracements from each low to the highest high of the move.

Do this with every low -> If there is a confluence with a S/R-Line and an other Fibonacci-Level, mark it ;)

Delete fibonacci-retracements where no confluence can be found...

In a down-trend:

Try to find fib fibonacci-retracements from each high to the lowest low of the move.

Do this with every high -> If there is a confluence with a S/R-Line and an other Fibonacci-Level, mark it ;)

Delete fibonacci-retracements where no confluence can be found ...

Find a pic here:

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/7878/fiboclusterconfluence.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi Diesel10,

I think you are on the right way to become a price-action-junkie like me :)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here is my Homework:

 

4hr EURUSD. Down. Strong Confluence at 50% level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/4hrhomework.gif

 

Daily EURUSD. Up. Strong Confluence at 38.2 level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/dailyhomework.gif

Hi harry007,

Good work :)

I think we are all now price-action specialists :)

Cheers

fxfxfx

hi FXFXFX

 

here my pic

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZiXy

 

 

 

 

 

cheers

Hi retireme,

exactly -> But to be more exactly:

This level is also a S/R-Resistance-Level (As you recognized it correctly) and is in confluence with the 50% Fib-Retracement -> 50% and 61% Retracement are also not that far away from each other - so price overshoot the 61% Retracement and finally found resistance at the 50% Level -> And then price was fought back below the 61% Retracement until it found again support at the last swing low which is also a major support (3 touches in history).

Thx for your great contribution.

Cheers

fxfxfx

3FX,

 

Was it because it was rejected 5 times previously in long term memory?

 

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Rgds

RM

Hi alright,

Good and sharp analysis :)

I really love to see people finding their way to price-action and learn so quickly that they do NOT need indicators, but simple horizontal line(s).

I really think that most of you guys gets now a feeling how the market works ;)

Makes me really happy !

Continue with your good work

Cheers

fxfxfx

I'm posting again my EJ picture after almost 9 hours to show what's happened in the meantime. My matching levels were 23.6 and 61.8. Well, the 61.8 acted as a perfect support generating an 80 pips move (white arrows) which bounced off the 23.6 by 30 pips (red arrow)! No comment... ;)

 

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4179/201106090948.png

Hi grooter,

1A -> Do you know now why price was NOT able to CLOSE ABOVE the S/R-Line and was hardly rejected from these levels ?

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here is mine. Best confluence I see at 61.8 fib level.

 

 

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Well done crisp,

do you get now a "feel" how the market moves ? Are you now able to spot possible good price-turning-points and where you have an edge ?

Please folks - Be aware that we see all this in realtime ! You draw the line(s) now and you will be prompted if your analysis was right/wrong - And we are doing NO LINE-FITTING here. Everything here is public and can be verified for us all ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here is my 4h EU chart with fibs.

 

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/1160/eu4hpachartwithfibs.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Best confluence I see on 61,8; 50 and 23,6 levels. Best out of those 3 is 50 level

 

Regards

 

Crips

well done nnn123,

If you all continue with this speed - you should all be able to read the market very quickly :)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here is mine with fibs.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZdSw

 

Which is a AU daily.

 

It has a one fib confluence at 1.0333, where 23% and a 61% are aligned.

I izogrey,

As always I love your sharp analysis ;)

Regarding your comment of the S/R line -> The nearer they are - the more powerful they are -> The more price-action confluences they have -> The more powerful they are ;)

Continue with your good work and analysis as you will need to do this on a regular basis if you want make cash with this (every serious) system -> But how long do you need for your analysis usually ? I am sure that it does not take soooo much time - Am I right ? ;)

Good job

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi 3fx,

 

Don't feel pressed if you cannot post lessons/homeworks. If you cannot post, that's it ... it's the life. We aren't here in a competition with deadline, we just try to build a virtual space of goooooooood quality. :-)

 

Regarding this, I think that all the human actions can be clasified in one of these three categories:

1) do it good, but not fast; ( I mean do it using all the potential resources )

2) do it fast, but not good; ( I mean not at maximum of possibilities, just a minimum of quality, but fast )

3) do it good and fast; ( this is veeeeery tricky, and it's possible only sometimes )

 

I think this thread ( and the trading in general ) should be in the first one :-)

 

UC confluence level:

 

I drew the SR line from confluence after I put Fibo ( and after I considered the short term price action ), but it's a short term SR line, not a strong one.

 

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/1531/ucconfluence.gif

Good work :)

I really like that so many people are doing their homework (Although I think that there must be more).

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here's mine.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8440/201106090110.png

Hi danyalati,

Both are correct ;) -> but you are one step ahead -> But you will know what I mean in the next lesson ;)

Thx for the good work

Cheers

fxfxfx

Which of these two would be more appropiate?

 

My eyes agree more with the frist picture, however the second ones abides by the rules.

 

http://i51.tinypic.com/oko5mf.gif

http://i55.tinypic.com/20z18uf.gif

Fibonacci - confluence

Hi folks,

What we learned with this lesson is what I meant by Fibonacci-confluence.

This confluence will strengthen every S/R-Line as you put the odds to your favour.

Let me explain this a little bit:

The fastest animal in the world is the hunting-leopard. But when he is hunting he does not choose the healthiest, fastest gnu -> He chooses a small gnu which is probably hurted - even he knows that he would be able to get also the healthy one: But he puts the odds to his favour (really clever *g*).

So in terms of trading this means.

We see what all the S/R - traders are seeing and where they probably put their orders... We also see what the fibonacci - traders are seeing and where they probably put their orders. When we have levels which are recognized by S/R-Traders AND Fibonacci-Traders -> Chances are high that the amount of orders got accumulated because at these levels are the orders of S/R-traders AND Fibonacci-traders -> We also trade in the direction of the trend -> so this alone gives you a very big edge !

Think about it ;)

Hope this post was useful...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi folks,

Next homework ;)

Please draw the fib-level from the last swing low to the top of the swing if you are in an uptrend or from the last swing high to the bottom of the swing if you are in a down-trend.

Find then levels where fib-levels are in confluence with S/R-Lines.

Find attached as example EURUSD Daily:

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/309/eurusdfibconfluence.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi izogrey,

Can you see now that you can predict (at a certain degree) the price-movement IN ADVANCE ?

You proved it yourself because you drew the lines IN THE PAST and price reacted as predicted IN THE FUTURE !

You surely would be able now to predict price much better than with ANY INDICATOR - and all with simple ****** horizontal lines !

What we did until now is to prepare for the battle and we drew basically our war-plan ;)

More will follow...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Sorry guys,

I was very busy today and really only had rarely time to maintain this thread - May you will get the next lesson today - But I can not guarantee it to you for 100% :(

So: No bad feelings if you do not get any lessons/homeworks for today ...

Hi there 3fx and people,

 

 

I had a bunch of busy hours today at job, so no chance to open MT4.

 

Anyway I just want to show you an update on UC based on the analyse from yesterday. Look how fine was the "Change of trend" line ( it's the same line I put there yesterday, I didn't move it, I swear :-) ). Here I have a question to 3fx: if a trade shoud be taken at "Breakout level", targeting at the high of the big long candle, where would be the SL ? I'm pointing the R:R ratio here......

 

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

And, because it's so boooooooooring to watch just one pair, I took also AUDUSD on the table.

 

Daily : DOWN ( even if the pressure is up, but this pressure hasn't any consequence on the close of daily candles )

 

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6636/aud1levels.jpg

 

H4: DOWN ( aligned with daily ). Look how good was the "First stop" line ( I drew it this morning, when the price were at the pink hand, just some pips below the breakout level so no lines-fitting here also :-) )

 

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3105/auh4levels.jpg

 

 

3fx, please correct if something is wrong, and also just tell me if posting updates is right or wrong for you.

 

 

Cheers@all

Hi izogrey,

Analysis is really good and updated charts with swings and trend-direction is also correct (As expected) :)

Regarding the setup:

I would never take a trade with a "potential" Risk/Reward-Ratio lower than 1:2 - 1:4 ! But you sharply recognized if you would went short that the R:R would be bad :)

I know - I mentioned in earlier post the word "breakout" - But I NEVER trade a breakout directly -> I trade the PULLBACK ! But you will see this all packed in one in a later post -> But for now it is important that you understand how the market moves, to be able to determine the trend and to know where price will probably stall or reverse ;)

Thx for your good work !

Cheers

fxfxfx

No problem with updating - In fact this is one of the most important things you have to learn !

You all will not do this for me - You all do your analysis for YOU ;)

And if you want to be successful you have to update all the things on a regular basis. It is not a must to update all the stuff here - but you prove yourself that you would be able to do this on a regular basis (so to say: You test yourself) ;)

Hi there 3fx and people,

 

 

I had a bunch of busy hours today at job, so no chance to open MT4.

 

Anyway I just want to show you an update on UC based on the analyse from yesterday. Look how fine was the "Change of trend" line ( it's the same line I put there yesterday, I didn't move it, I swear :-) ). Here I have a question to 3fx: if a trade shoud be taken at "Breakout level", targeting at the high of the big long candle, where would be the SL ? I'm pointing the R:R ratio here......

 

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

And, because it's so boooooooooring to watch just one pair, I took also AUDUSD on the table.

 

Daily : DOWN ( even if the pressure is up, but this pressure hasn't any consequence on the close of daily candles )

 

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6636/aud1levels.jpg

 

H4: DOWN ( aligned with daily ). Look how good was the "First stop" line ( I drew it this morning, when the price were at the pink hand, just some pips below the breakout level so no lines-fitting here also :-) )

 

http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3105/auh4levels.jpg

 

 

3fx, please correct if something is wrong, and also just tell me if posting updates is right or wrong for you.

 

 

Cheers@all

Another little tip

Hi folks,

Some people maybe have problems to "detect" these swings.

Here a little tip:

*) Use the zig-zag indicator

*) Use the fractals - indicator

They are both "build-in" indicators of every MT4 Platform.

Hope this helps

Cheers

fxfxfx

Little tip: horizontal trendlines

Hi folks,

as far as I can see some people do not know how to make the trendlines 100% horizontal

Make a double-click at the trendline that there will be 3 small squares -> so now they are selected. Then right-click at the trendline -> A context-menu will appear -> Choose "Trendline Properties" -> Switch to the "Parameters"-tab -> Copy the content of the 1st field "Value" to the 2nd field "Value" and finally click the "OK"-Button.

Now they should be 100% horizontal ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi nnn123,

looks good to me ;) As far as you know which is the zigzag and which are yours it's fine ;)

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534447-clip-35kb.png?nocache=1

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534619-clip-29kb.png?nocache=1

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307534661-clip-33kb.png?nocache=1

Hi 3fx,

 

My bad, I am lazy by nature but I am working on that. I used zigzag, but you realised that.

 

Anyway, I left the earlier lines as they were and have added the new ones as yellow.

 

Is this how I need to plot?

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8aQ

 

The left side

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8cC

 

And finally, Same chart, scrunched to show the rangebound to the left.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z8d3

 

Please let me know if I have not done it correctly.

 

Thanks.