fxfxfx

Hi nnn123,

cool !

You are one step ahead -> This lesson will come later ;)

Did you see how price reacted once price went outside the boundaries of the sideways market ? Breakout -> Pullback to the EXACT LEVEL of the outer boundary and then took off to north ? ;)

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307531839-clip-30kb.png?nocache=1

Thx for the great work ! Not only to you - of course also to the others !

It is really cool to see a place where people are willing to learn/work and help others :)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi 3fx,

 

Thanks for this thread. I have subscribed to it.

 

I have attached my daily chart as well.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z7MM

 

Please have a look and let me know.

 

Thanks for your help.

Yep :)

Be prepared ;)

hey fxfxfx

 

Can we expect new exercises today?

 

Regards

 

Crips

Hi nnn123,

S/R looks good :)

But what confuses me are the swings -> Look at the choppy area at the left -> I see that there are inside this choppy are some mini-trends...

And also after the breakout (your 1st blue line) there comes a re-tracement -> I would also color this blue as this is a retracement and the trend is still up...

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1307523951-clip-35kb.png?nocache=1

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi 3fx,

 

This is a good thread. I have subscribed to this thread.

 

This is what I have drawn, can you please have a look and let me know your views. Thanks.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/Z6KY

Hi danyalati,

1A ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Am I late to the party? Hopefully there lots more fun to be had.

 

I really appreciate how fxfxfx gave us homework. Normally I would just read through the whole thing and expect myself to do the whole method after just reading it once. I likde the idea of exercises

 

OK, I chose USDJPY, first exercise is easy

http://i52.tinypic.com/1sk1oh.gif

 

Swing high and Swing Lows. Rignt now we are in a downtrend

http://i55.tinypic.com/29qfwgn.gif

 

I had trouble with this. Please If I am wrong please correct me. I say we are in a downtrend on daily.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2z8ud6v.gif

Hi danyalati,

I will try to describe here the stages of a trader (At least it was so in my case).

Stage 1: You have no clue ... You start to google or look into FX-forums

Stage 2: You think you got it -> You got some information from the internet with basics and also some indicators and also some kind of EAs

Stage 3: You start using indicators and EAs

Stage 4: You are frustrated because you nearly tried every indicator or EA

Stage 5: You have no clue ...

Stage 6: You re-think your situation and come to the conclusio to use your brain and seek for systems which makes sense

Stage 6: You realize that price is the key

Stage 7: You start to seek for price-action systems

Stage 8: You have no clue

Stage 9: After reading and reading all the price-action stuff you find out that price-action is the key for the system but you have to bring it all together and you must find out the relationship between the things. You organize yourself.

Stage 10: You do it

Hope this helps.

That quote just calmed me down. Thanks for the reassurance to profitabilty. One of the article at Nial Fuller's website talk about leaning a system 100% instead of just giving it a try and moving onto another. I think I have been jumping systems.

Look forward to more teaching material!

Hi danyalati,

You will find price-action-elements in YTC - I think also in the earlier chapters afaik.

But: I do not trade the exact way he trades it as it does not suits to my lifestyle.

I trade a different way the he does -> But that does not matter as long as it is profitable;)

It is your choice to read it all ;)

Afaik it is really a lot to read the YTC-stuff ...

I do not know if it is clever to do both things as people may mix things up.

Maybe try this:

Read the YTC-Stuff and then my thread or vice-versa -> I hope you are not in a hurry to make money ;)

So it is up to you if you start to read YTC and then my thread or the other way or to do both at the same time ...

Cheers

fxfxfx

I completed vol. 2 of YTC scalper, and so far i cannot see any similarity

Do you think your method complements YTC at all? Do you think it would be good idea to read all of YTC. I seem to be going in a circle, since most of the price action I was taught as basic market ideas 1.5 years ago, then I started searching for strategies, and now back to price action.

Hi danyalati,

I can not see the pics :(

Cheers

fxfxfx

Am I late to the party? Hopefully there lots more fun to be had.

 

I really appreciate how fxfxfx gave us homework. Normally I would just read through the whole thing and expect myself to do the whole method after just reading it once. I likde the idea of exercises

 

OK, I chose USDJPY, first exercise is easy

http://www.mediafire.com/?ua4f2sv28fxkkqt

 

Swing high and Swing Lows. Rignt now we are in a downtrend

http://www.mediafire.com/?dmu6pdnvbvdqvll

 

I had trouble with this. Please If I am wrong please correct me. I say we are in a downtrend on daily.

http://www.mediafire.com/?tkpx3ipo5xitqqj

I compare the S/R with the human brain:

The human brain has:

A long-time-memory

and:

A short-time-memory

This means: the human brain knows very good what happened short time ago - but also what happened longer time ago and that got much attention to the brain -> the rest will be deleted ;)

Long-Time memory: Things that happened longer time ago - but got so much attention to you (maybe something happened more than 1 time) that you will remember it.

Short-Time memory: The things which happened short time ago. When in this short-time period happens something which seems to be very important for you -> Then it will find its way to the Long-Time-memory -> The rest will be deleted ;)

In terms of our chart:

Strong Support/Resistance -> Support/Resistance which happened in the last 2 major moves in the time-frame you trade and probably confluence with fib-retracement,... and so on -> And Trendlines which comes from higher time-frames.

Weak(er) Support/Resistance:

S/R-Lines which are not from the last few swings or so...

afaik the next S/R must be at about 1.4750 -> It should be the next blue line above the price at your 4-hourly-chart (at least I see the line at the PIC you uploaded) ;)

Hope this helps...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Maybe couple of minutes not longer.

What do you consider as a strong S/R lines?

 

Regards

 

Crips

Hi crips,

For entry I usually use strong S/R lines - for "potential" turning-points I use every single S/R - Line.

Which is the closest S/R line above the act. price ;)

btw: Good work :)

How long did you need for your analysis ?

Cheers

fxfxfx

well I would say that next big obstacle in our way to new hights is the 1.4930 area were the last high is on 4H chart and it is also the high on D1 which should be broken to move further up.

 

Regards

 

Crips

 

PS!! "yes" is the answere to those 2 questions.

Hi grooter,

Yes - when price CLOSES above the 3rd blue line from the top at latest -> But what can also happen is that price retrace upwards (but do not close above the last swing high) then retraces again downwards and makes a HIGHER low and finally retraces again and closes above the high of the HIGHER low - Whichever comes first.

OK - this is hard to describe... So here a pic:

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/2075/gbpjpy.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I would say down is the way to go. If it breaks that many levels there should be a lot of downwards momentum.

 

PS: so you say the downtrend would be broken in case it closes again above the 3rd blue line from the top? If I look at the chart from a distance I can see you are absolutely right, daily = GJ down

Hi izogrey,

Please consider that you draw the lines initially (which will take time -> OK you are totally right), but to update them takes only a few seconds ;)

the 4-hourly probably once or twice per day....

I suggest to draw the 4 hourly once a week completely new.

Cheers

fxfxfx

I'm just fine with the both questions, so ... let's go on forward.

 

After I draw all the lines, the analysis appeared in my eyes in some one or two seconds. It took me way much longer to draw the lines and text than to analyse. :-)

 

Well, it seems that I choose UC pair in order to learn how to wait ... But if I can trade UC consistently for ... let's say three months, then it's good to learn how to wait ! :-)

Hi izogrey,

One short side-note:

If price will close above your breakout-level, I would target the high of the last swing high (which is in your case the big BULLISH candle) -> Why: I will explain this later...

I come up with my version about UC ( I choose UC because I didn't managed to trade this consistently, for a long time, ever in my life ):

 

daily trend : UP

 

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6864/ucd1trend.jpg

 

h4 trend :UP ( even if it's close to change )

 

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

So, they are aligned. If the price will close above "Breakout level", it will encounter the red "Resistance area", and IF it will close above that area, it will probably go to "First stop". After that ? I don't know, we will see when we will be there ....

 

But if the price will close below "Change of trend", what then ? Daily and h4 trends aren't aligned anymore. I expect, in that case, that the price will go to the next line downward on H4 chart, but which is the probability of my expectation, given the UP daily trend ?

Hi izogrey,

1A :)

Quick question: How long did it take (after you draw all the lines) to make your analysis ?

If both trends are not aligned I usually wait until they are aligned ;) *g* -> Hope you got the idea behind it :))

Hope that I could have helped you all to see the market a little bit clearer.

One short side note: These techniques can be applied to ANY tradeable stuff (commodities, currencies, indices, stocks,...)

So - all in all you are all now analysts who can analyze the market within a very short time-period.

Cheers

fxfxfx

I come up with my version about UC ( I choose UC because I didn't managed to trade this consistently, for a long time, ever in my life ):

 

daily trend : UP

 

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6864/ucd1trend.jpg

 

h4 trend :UP ( even if it's close to change )

 

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2354/uch4levels.jpg

 

So, they are aligned. If the price will close above "Breakout level", it will encounter the red "Resistance area", and IF it will close above that area, it will probably go to "First stop". After that ? I don't know, we will see when we will be there ....

 

But if the price will close below "Change of trend", what then ? Daily and h4 trends aren't aligned anymore. I expect, in that case, that the price will go to the next line downward on H4 chart, but which is the probability of my expectation, given the UP daily trend ?

Hi folks,

One last homework:

Take a break - sit down and think a little bit:

Are you able to do these 2 lessons on a regular basis ?

Do I see the market a little bit "clearer" now ?

If you answer yourself both questions with YES - then continue with the thread and let me know it.

If both answers are NO - then you are free to leave the thread and use any kind of EAs or indicators which will do the work for you -> but be warned: In the long run you probably won't see much success :( In the best case you will probably end at breakeven.

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi guys,

If you have any question(s) about my comments: Feel free to ask me...

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi grooter,

Actually the daily is in a down-trend -> Although is looks strange, I would suggest to color the last swings also "Aqua or so" as price made a higher high but did not close above the high before (Some king of fake-breakout). Price-action looks a little bit strange, but I would say: As soon as price does not exceed the last high we are in a down-trend.

To summarize:

Daily: down

4-hourly: down

We are prepared to look for SHORT-opportunities (although I would wait until price would break significantly the lowest blue line at your chart as (you recognized it correctly) this represents strong support.

Question: Once price will break the lowest blue line of your charts -> Where do you think price will go (stall or reverse) ?

Thx

fxfxfx

GJ D1. Looks like a range, per your definition I should say uptrend? So H4 down, D1 up.

 

Since we have a bottom with so many lines, there would be quite some support here.

 

http://i56.tinypic.com/f2iw6c.gif

Hi crisp,

As soon as the price does not stop to make higher highs or close below the last start-point of the upward-swing - we are in an uptrend.

So summarize:

EU 4-hourly: UPTREND

EU Daily: UPTREND

So I would say that both are "aligned" and it should be save to look for BUY opportunities ;)

Look at the 4-hourly chart: Price broke the last high and made a new high (Actual candle) -> What will price probably do ? It will retrace probably again to the LAST high and then will bounce at this level to continue its upward-move.

Last high: 1.4656

Short question crips: Where do YOU think that price will go (or better: where would price probably stall or reverse) ? Look at the 4-hourly ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

at the moment on EU D1 "in a short term so to speak" we are in a up trend but... the price have not yet broke the high of the visible chart so I would be careful with that.

 

Regards

 

Crips

Hi alright,

This is really 1A :)

I hope you get now a little bit of feeling how the market moves and where the market can/will "potentially" stall or eventually reverse ?

Good job and: Well done !

Cheers

fxfxfx

Likely up to the level I marked with the yellow arrow?

 

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/4054/201106071013.png

Hi alright.

OK - so let's summarize:

H4-Trend is: UP

DAILY-Trend is: UP

I would say: Both are "aligned" ;)

Next question:

Once Price breaks the last high of the swing high of the 4-hourly, where do you think price will so (or better price will stop) ?

Hint: Get your 4-hourly-chart and draw horizontal lines at the tops and bottoms of the swings ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here my next homework. On the daily, the latest high is broken, so trend UP

http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/9494/201106071000.png

Hi crips,

What can I say, except: Wow - You did it really fast :)

The last thing to do is to determine now the trend (trend-changes) at the daily-timeframe - As we did it for the 4 hourly :)

Cheers

fxfxfx

Here is my homework on D1 tf

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/69/eud1pachart.gif/

 

Regards

 

Crips

Hi alright,

Good to see that you learned to see the market in this way ;)

What you see now is a very strong resistance-level as price tried to breach this level many times - We also see that we have higher lows (which shows pressure to the upward side). We won't see anything spectacular until the price CLOSES significantly above the last swing-high OR below the last swing low.

One question alright: Where do you think price will go once price closed above the last swing-high-level ?

Cheers

fxfxfx

According to what you showed us, the trend would appear to be UP, although it also looks rangy at the moment as the latest 2 swings, both high and low, are inside the previous bigger one. So a new higher high above 117.80 is required to officially confirm an uptrend.

 

P.S. - I like this exercise. ;)

Hi Harry,

Maybe you will become "Neo" and see the matrix in a new way and clear ;)

OK - folks you did your homework really good :)

Now comes the last homework for the chapter.

Do excercise 2 again at the same currency-pair, but with 1 timeframe above (In most cases this should be the daily charts).

Cheers

fxfxfx

at hindsight I dream I where in that H4 e/u Trade , big pipvalue at green my entry, red move the stop and white RR now near 1:5.

can be trading so easy ?

 

http://s1209.photobucket.com/albums/cc381/harry4xx/?action=view&current=eu_h4_june07b.gif

 

 

 

I really see new the charts and more clear, special the longer TF

Hi folks,

As I see you all did your homework.

I first must look at all your charts and analyze them.

But what we have learned until now is:

How to draw swings, how to draw support/resistance -> 1st Training

How to determine the trend ;) -> 2nd Training

Maybe this will shed a little bit of light in case you are wondering why we are doin this stuff.

This means -> At this stage (with the finalization of the 2nd Homework/Training) you should be able to see the actual trend ;)

So:

grooter: What is the actual trend of g/y 4hourly ?

alright: What is the actual trend of e/y 4hourly ?

harry007: What is the actual trend of e/u 4hourly ?

crips: What is the actual trend of e/u 4hourly ?

izogrey: What is the atual trend of usdcad 4hourly ?

Hope to hear from you soon -> Hope the picture now gets a little bit clearer for you ....

Cheers

fxfxfx

Hi harry007,

I personally watch at 5-7 pairs.

But I started with 1-3.

Maybe it is also a good idea when you focus at the beginning to 1-3 currencies.

When you find your rhythm (in Terms of drawing these lines/updating these lines on a regular basis) and you are trained and skilled - then you can extend the amount of pairs ;)

Cheers

fxfxfx

the white line is the break of the trend if price close below at uptrend or above in downtrend, the arrow show the new direction and the Trade

 

http://s1209.photobucket.com/albums/cc381/harry4xx/?action=view&current=eu_h4_june07.gif

 

 

 

 

hmm, not so many to trade at one pair , how many pair you trade FXFXFX?

Last homework was to draw the the swings of the last 2 major moves.

Please start with beginning of the FIRST major move on the left.

Follow the 1st impulsive swing -> Then usually a retracement-swing -> Followed by an impulsive swing,....

Then one of these 2 things will happen:

1) A swing occurs and the next swing will close above/below the start-point of the swing before -> If this happens then make this line in a different color.

2) An impulsive swing is followed by a retracement-swing the next impulsive swing fails to go above/below the last impulsive swing and finally closes above/below the end of the last retracement-swing.

Maybe a pic can explain this better:

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6871/trendchange.gif

Hope to see more pics of you...

Cheers

fxfxfx