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EUR/GBP extends recovery from weekly lows



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as the pound weakened on the back of weaker than expected UK trade balance data.

EUR/GBP extended its recovery from the 0.7800 area and touched a daily high of 0.7840 but lacked follow-through. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7833, still up 0.25% on the day but virtually unchanged on the week.

The euro weakened Thursday and briefly dropped below 0.7800 versus the pound following ECB President dovish remarks. However, EUR/GBP found support at 0.7798, the same level it bottomed earlier this week.

EUR/GBP technical levels

On the upside, EUR/GBP could find immediate resistances at 0.7863 (Nov 5 & 6 highs), 0.7883/85 (Oct 31 high/20-day SMA) and 0.7900 (psychological level). On the downside, supports could be found at 0.7800/0.7798 (psychological level/Nov 3 & 6 lows), 0.7789 (Oct 2 low) and 0.7766 (2014 low Oct 1).

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Nov 06, 2014
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GBP/USD ignored the disappointing Trade Balance



FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/USD is still trading above 1.58 area practically ignoring the UK Trade Balance.

The pound has become immune to weaker-than-expected data, as just released Trade Balance was practically ignored by the currency. No wonder, given the series of disappointments from PMI releases, and the recent impressive sell-off of the pair. The yesterday’s Services PMI printed lowest level since May 2013, and it pushed the pair to 14-month low. The pair may take a pause for now waiting for the key US release to come, and if the American report proves to be better than expected, it may kill any hope for the pound sending it below 1.58 round number.

What are today’s key GBP/USD levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.5890, with support below at 1.5777, followed by 1.5719 and 1.5606 with resistance above at 1.5948, followed by 1.6061 and 1.6119. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.6002, and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.6041. Hourly RSI is bearish at 32.


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Nov 06, 2014
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EUR/USD falls below 1.2500 on Draghi's comments on Thursday - BTMU



FXStreet (Łódź) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ remarks that following Mario Draghi's comments on the balance sheet size and hints on further easing EUR/USD dropped below the 1.2500 level.

Key Quotes

"The power of communication. For so long earlier this year, the ECB’s communication wasn’t having much impact but once action is taken by a central bank to back up its words, then communication can turn into a very powerful tool. And so it was yesterday with ECB President Draghi’s explicit comment on balance sheet size and clear hints on further easing pushing the EUR/USD rate well below the 1.2500 level that had been holding for a time."

"The explicit mention of the balance sheet going back to “2012 dimensions” also served the purpose of undermining the speculation fuelled by a market report that there were divisions within the ECB Council over President Draghi’s communication style, like communicating a balance sheet target when it was agreed not to. Not only did Draghi mention “2012 dimensions”, he made clear that referred to the time after the second LTRO when the balance sheet hit its EUR 3trn peak.0"

"In terms of what has changed, Draghi also intimated that the ECB staff forecasts next month will be lowered again – the current inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. The European Commission this week put inflation in those years at just 0.8% and 1.5%."

"So we are quite likely to see a notable change to the 2015 level although it is debatable whether the 2016 level will be changed. Apart from the fall in crude oil prices, there has not really been any dramatic change in economic conditions."

"Indeed, Italy and France have backed away from fiscal austerity, helping the growth outlook. Nonetheless, the change in inflation outlook appears the key factor for allowing Draghi to hint at further action by stating that the ECB Council has been “tasked with preparing further measures if needed”."

"Finally, from an FX perspective, our current EUR/USD forecasts were based on the assumption of no full-blown sovereign debt QE (1.1800 Q3 2015). That assumption is looking questionable at the moment and hence our forecasts may require downward revisions."

"Draghi did emphasise the widening monetary divergence ahead and with asset purchases set to continue for two years, EUR/USD will continue to fall. We are still not convinced of sovereign debt QE being unleashed in December and hence for now we will maintain our 1.2500 end-2014 target."


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Nov 06, 2014
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Nickel inventory rises



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminium, Lead, Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the data showed a rise in the inventory levels of Nickel.

Aluminium inventory declined by 9150 tonnes today, while Nickel inventory increased by 1104 tonnes. Copper inventory fell by 625 tonnes, while Zinc Inventory and Lead Inventory declined by 3300 tonnes and 1950 tonnes respectively.

Nickel prices are heading for a weekly loss on LME ahead of the report from China which may show export growth slowed down. Nickel slid as much as 0.7% while aluminum fell 0.6%.


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Nov 06, 2014
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A “dot hike” from the Fed on the cards? - BAML



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Ralph Axel, Rates Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes the forthcoming consensus for the US jobs report in Nonfarm Payrolls could be a catalyst for a shift in sentiment around the feds first rate hike.

Key Quotes:

"A consensus or moderately below-consensus jobs report on Friday we believe can create an even greater divergence between the market and the Fed around the latter's expected tightening cycle”.

“While such a report would result in an unchanged market or even lower yields on a weaker report, it could cause the Fed to increase its dots in next month's dot plot - a "dot hike" - which given the very large discrepancy between the market and dots should be a substantial hawkish surprise for markets."

"The unemployment rate this Friday is the key number for the Fed, and we would view a 5.9% rate, which is the consensus, as providing a great opportunity to sell the front end of the rates market, preferably using EDZ6 euro/dollar contracts or 5y Treasuries, futures or swaps. If the unemployment rate drops to 5.8% or lower, especially with a weak nonfarm headline number, our conviction in this trade would increase materially


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Nov 05, 2014
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USD/JPY hits fresh highs above 114.70 ahead of ADP




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY continued to rise and reached a fresh 7-year high ahead of the release of employment data in US at 114.76. The pair remains near the highs as the US dollar climbs further across the board.

“The USD has recovered overnight, boosted not only by the strong outcome for the Republicans in yesterday’s election, but also by comments by BoJ’s Governor Kuroda, who has vowed to do whatever he can to achieve the BoJ’s 2% inflation target and noted that he sees no limit to the measures the central bank can take”, mentioned analysts from TD securities.

USD/JPY with data ahead

Volatility could persist over the coming hours. At 13:15 GMT the ADP employment report will be release and it could have an impact on the USD/JPY. The private payroll is expected to show an increase of 220.000; a larger number could boost the US dollar.




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Nov 05, 2014
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Gold continues to fall




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extend their slide ahead of the US session tracking broad based strength in the US Dollar and the strength in the US Equity futures.

Gold is trading 2.46% lower at USD 1139/Oz levels while the US Dollar Index has inched 0.58% higher to 87.67 levels. The S&P futures are trading 0.50% higher at 2015.45 levels. The yellow metal failed to find any support from a slight weakness in the European PMI indices, since the equities in the Europe remained resilient.

The yellow metal may dip further today if equities in the US rise further in anticipation of a more aggressive stimulus measure from the European Central Bank.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1144, above which prices can re-test 1161 levels. Meanwhile, immediate support is seen at 1118 levels.




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Nov 05, 2014
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USD/CHF climbs to 0.9650




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF erased most of yesterday losses during the last five hours and climbed to 0.9650, reaching a fresh daily high, slightly below the price it had at the beginning of the week.

Greenback is rising across the board on Wednesday, after US elections and ahead of the ADP employment report. Despite falling against the US dollar the Swiss franc is the best performer among European currencies.

USD/CHF with support at 0.9575/80

The pair bottomed yesterday at 0.9578 and today during the Asian session approached the mentioned level that offered support again. Afterwards turned to the upside and climbed further on European horus.

Again USD/CHF has approached 2014 highs that lie barely below 0.9700. From current price (0.9635/38), immediate resistance lies at 0.9650/55 and above here at 0.9665 and then 0.9690 (Nov 3 high). To the downside, support might now lie at 0.9615 and below 0.9575 (Nov 4 low).




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Nov 05, 2014
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AUD/USD retreats form 0.8750




FXStreet (Córdoba) - Despite the decline of the US dollar against European currencies, AUD/USD retreat during the American session, trimming gains.

The pair bottomed during the Asian session at 0.8644 and then rose sharply. The recovery was capped by 0.8750 and then pulled back. Recently the pair printed a fresh session low at 0.8710 and currently trades at 0.8720/25, up 0.33% for the day.

Earlier the retail sales report from Australia showed an increase of 1.2% surpassing expectations while export and imports also rose above expectations. Afterwards the central bank left rates unchanged as expected.





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Nov 04, 2014
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United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) up to 46.4 in November from previous 45.2




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Nov 04, 2014
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USD/JPY attempts to trades above 113.50, but rejected




FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief period of consolidation in between 113.15 and 113.50, USD/JPY accelerated to return above 113.50 and testing daily highs at 113.75; however, pair received a rejection of this level and now it is below the 113.50 again.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 113.41, down -0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 114.08 and low at 113.17. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

USD/JPY sentiment

"The pair has still an unfilled gap at 112.30 yet seems chances of a turn towards the level are limited," Valeri Bednarik from FXStreet comments. "Above 113.90 on the other hand, the pair will likely advance towards fresh highs year highs around 114.50/60."

In the short term, with a successful break above 113.50, the USD/JPY will find resistances at 113.75, 114.00 and 114.20. To the downside, supports are at 113.30, 113.15 and 113.00.




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Nov 04, 2014
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Silver trades below USD 16.00




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels.

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack.

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts.

Silver Technical levels

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels.



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Nov 04, 2014
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Silver trades below USD 16.00




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels.

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack.

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts.

Silver Technical levels

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels.



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Nov 04, 2014
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AUD/NZD hovering around 1.1240




FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/NZD remains flat on Tuesday after RBA decision and ahead of key economic data from New Zealand.

The pair bottomed during the Asian session after economic numbers from Australia and the RBA statement at 1.1207, reaching the lowest price since last Friday but then bounced to the upside and printed a daily high on European hours at 1.1272.

AUD/NZD technical outlook

In the short term the pair remains moving sideways, in a range between 1.1210 and 1.1270; with a bias that favors the aussie. But the area around 1.1300 has become a key resistance.

After Wall Street closing bell the NZ employment report will be release and is likely to impact in the kiwi. Weak numbers could push the pair to test 1.1300 while to the downside, 1.1190 - 1.1200 is an important support area to consider if employment figures surpass expectations.



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Nov 04, 2014
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NOK slumps, dragged by oil prices




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Norwegian krone is among the worst performers in the FX market given its high exposure to oil prices, which continue to fall.

Both Brent and crude oil prices are about 2% down on the day, with the latter having scored a low of $75.90, last seen October 2011. Saudi Arabia cut its prices Monday for oil sold in December in the US, triggering the sell-off. Oil prices are down about 25% from mid-June highs.

EUR/NOK has risen over 130 pips, or 1.59%, throughout the day and reached its highest level since September 2009 at 8.6226 in recent dealings. Meanwhile, USD/NOK gained nearly 1.5% and reached a 5 ½-year peak of 6.8916.



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Nov 04, 2014
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US index futures hint at a weak opening on Wall Street




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The equity futures in the US declined as investors await evidence, in the form of macro data, that the economy can sustain a withdrawal in stimulus.

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.19% at 17,253 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.25% down at 2006.15. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.35% lower at 1162.00.

Earnings reports may provide further clues to the health of the U.S. economy. Prudential Financial Inc., 21st Century Fox Inc., and Walt Disney Co. are among the S&P 500 companies posting financial results this week.




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Nov 04, 2014
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GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185”.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
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GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185”.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com-Greet cTrader weekly demo contest winners of the Round 2!

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Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 53.5 to 55.3 in October


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Nov 03, 2014
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Bullish outlook for USD/CAD - TD Securities



FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts observe that the headwinds for the CAD such as weaker commodities, continue this week so the bull trend for USD/CAD should remain in place for now.

Key quotes

"The week ahead will be hallmarked by two dual releases in the form of US and Canadian trade figures tomorrow and both countries’ employment reports on Friday."

"In a nutshell, we are expecting Canadian trade to surprise on the upside and we have an on-consensus view on Canadian employment, whereas we are slightly below consensus on US trade but above consensus on US employment."

"The first hurdle for the CAD will be trade—and we think risks here are somewhat asymmetric; ok-to-good data do little positive for the CAD but another disappointing outcome will hurt the CAD more. If both our employment forecasts come to fruition (-10K in Canada vs +239K in the US), funds will surely have another big up day Friday."

"Governor Poloz speaks this afternoon at an event organized by the Canadian Council for Public Private Partnerships. We do not expect his speech to break new ground on the BoC latest thinking but the press conference scheduled at 14.00ET bears watching, as it will provide journalists the opportunities to ask the questions they could not ask upon the release of the MPR on October 22nd."

"We remain conviction bulls on USDCAD; the headwinds we noted for the CAD last week—softer commodities and wider (more USD-supportive– remain evident at the start of the week and the charts are shaping up quite bullishly; the 40-day MA hold last week suggests the broader bull trend is intact, the consolidation (bull flag) break out points to more immediate gains and new highs, the higher weekly high negates a mildly negative weekly candle in the week before last."

"We think modest dips are a buy and we would be reluctant to fade gains from here—USDCAD is shaping up for a move (recall weekly technicals point to 1.18+)."



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Nov 03, 2014
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US Equities to open on a flat note




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open on a flat note today ahead of the monthly manufacturing data.

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.17% at 17,280 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.10% down at 0.10%. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.06% lower at 1170.30.

The equity futures remained flat throughout the Asian and the European session after the weak Chinese manufacturing data renewed the concerns of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.




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Nov 03, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates