AUDUSD trapped in a Triangle: market holds breath before a breakout
The AUDUSD pair is rising after rebounding from support, with traders closely watching the 0.6495 resistance level. The price currently stands at 0.6433. Discover more in our analysis for 23 May 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025 support AUDUSD's current uptrend
Traders anticipate a breakout from the consolidation range, which could trigger a strong directional move
AUDUSD forecast for 23 May 2025: 0.6545
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate strengthens but remains confined within a sideways consolidation. The US dollar is under pressure due to ongoing fiscal risks and the lack of progress in trade negotiations. Additional support for the Australian currency came from expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second half of 2025.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points. Markets now price in over a 50% likelihood of a second rate cut at the next meeting in July.
Against this backdrop, AUDUSD trading remains mixed and volatile. The price is squeezed in a consolidation range with the upper boundary at 0.6495 and the lower one at 0.6360. Traders are closely monitoring this phase as such consolidations often end with a strong breakout.
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