US 500 forecast: the index halts its decline
After the sell-off, the US 500 rebounded and formed a support level. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
Recent data: US GDP growth in Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%
Market impact: the data is negative for the US stock market
Fundamental analysis
A much weaker-than-expected US quarterly GDP growth release, with the actual figure coming in at 0.7%, below the forecast of 1.4% and the previous 4.4%, is generally perceived as a negative signal for the US 500 index. This outcome indicates a noticeable slowdown in economic activity, thereby increasing concerns that corporate revenue and earnings growth over the coming quarters may be weaker than previously anticipated.
For the US 500, the initial reaction may be mixed, but the overall balance of factors is more likely unfavourable. On the one hand, weaker GDP increases the probability of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the future, which typically supports equity valuations via lower bond yields and a lower cost of capital.
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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
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