US 500 forecast: quotes approach resistance, but the downtrend continues
The US 500 index remains in a downtrend, which is unlikely to be long-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July
Market impact: for the US stock market, such data has a mixed effect
Fundamental analysis
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP. The July 2025 reading of 50.1 shows that the economy in the service segment continues to grow, but very weakly, and is almost on the verge of stagnation. The figure came in below the forecast of 51.5 and barely changed from the previous 50.8, indicating a lack of strong growth drivers and possibly declining business confidence in the industry.
For the US stock market, such data has a mixed impact. On one hand, weak service sector figures cool expectations for corporate earnings growth in consumer-facing industries and raise concerns about the sustainability of domestic demand. This could put negative pressure on the broad US 500 index, especially in cyclical sectors that depend on economic activity.
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