Date: 27th July 2026.
Fed Decision in Focus as Oil Falls, Gold Holds Above $4,000 and US Dollar Weakens.
Investors are bracing for a central bank decision from the US, UK, and Japan. The best-performing currencies at the weekly open so far are the Swiss Franc, Euro, and the Australian Dollar. The worst-performing currency is the US Dollar, which is trading 0.30% lower.
The price movement is partially due to the upcoming central bank decisions and economic data. However, this was also influenced by the pause in hostilities between the US and Iran after 13 consecutive nights of attacks. This has caused lower oil prices, higher stocks, and a weaker US Dollar.
US Dollar
The price of the US Dollar over the past month has been trading within the range of 100.00 to 101.60. This is the region that is pricing in further rate hikes, but not necessarily an ultra- restrictive policy. The price is also witnessing a clear correlation between the currency and the conflict in the Middle East.
As tensions rise and the conflict escalates, the US Dollar clearly trades higher due to its safe-haven status. Traders are opting for the USD as their safe-haven trade due to high interest rates and Gold’s uncompetitive pricing.
The absence of new US strikes on Iran overnight marked another step towards de-escalation after nearly two weeks of sustained military exchanges. As Washington and Tehran refrained from launching further attacks, investors interpreted the pause as a sign that diplomatic efforts were gaining traction. For this reason, the US Dollar Index fell during this morning with a bearish gap measuring 0.24%.
Though, investors should note that the geopolitical situation within the region particularly amongst Iran, Israel, US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel remains uneasy. In addition to this, the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision is also largely influencing the US Dollar.
Crude Oil Drops Over Renewed Hopes in Middle East Conflict
The price of Crude oil saw a significant decline on Monday due to de-escalation within the region. The price closed on Friday evening at $90.85 and opened this morning at $84.60, measuring a 6.85% decline. This decline is vital as the Federal Reserve will soon make its rate decision.
The Iranian Army Chief told the country’s national TV channel that it is no longer taking retaliatory action in order for Iran and Omani officials to meet and resolve shipping through the strait. The US is also doing the same, which gives investors the sense of lower tensions and lower risk. For this reason, oil prices are significantly lower and still declining.
If the Strait of Hormuz does reopen and oil supply continues to increase, the price of oil could potentially fall back down to $70 per barrel. Most momentum-based indicators are also pointing towards a similar price movement. However, this will depend on whether ships can indeed pass through the strait.
HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart
If oil prices continue to fall, this could add further pressure on the US Dollar while slightly supporting Gold prices.
Gold Rebounds As The Dollar Falls
The price of Gold is trading above $4,000 after finding support from the weaker US Dollar. Some countries have also confirmed that they are taking advantage of the lower Gold prices in order to prop up their portfolios. In particular, China was seen active in the Gold market due to lower Gold prices and a strong Yuan. Chinese gold imports rose to a two-year high in June, to about 173 tonnes, according to the latest customs data.
If the US Dollar continues to decline, Gold prices could retain momentum. However, this will largely depend on whether the US Dollar Index falls below 100.00 and on the Federal Reserve. Currently, markets expect the Federal Reserve to pause and then hike in September. If the Fed hikes earlier or indicates consecutive hikes, Gold could quickly retrace back below $4,000.
HFM - Gold 30-Minutes
Key Takeaways:
The US Dollar weakens as easing Middle East tensions reduce safe-haven demand ahead of key central bank decisions.
Crude oil dropped nearly 7% after signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran ease supply disruption concerns.
Gold remains above $4,000, supported by a weaker US Dollar and strong physical demand, particularly from China.
The Federal Reserve decision takes centre stage, with investors watching for clues on the timing of future interest rate hikes.
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
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