US 500 forecast: the index has updated its all-time high
The US 500 has updated its all-time high and is now correcting. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US Durable Goods Orders in November fell by 2.2%
Market impact: the data has a moderately negative impact on the equity market
Fundamental analysis
The indicator declined by -2.2% month-on-month, which came in worse than the forecast of -1.5% and significantly weaker than the previous reading of +0.7%. This dynamic points to cooling demand for capital-intensive goods and may signal a slowdown in corporate investment plans in the coming months. For the US equity market, this usually acts as a moderately negative signal, primarily for sectors that depend on the industrial cycle and business investment. Investors may factor in more restrained revenue growth for industrial companies and equipment suppliers, which reduces overall optimism.
For the US 500 index, the effect is generally constraining. On the one hand, weaker orders worsen expectations for economic growth and profits among cyclical companies, putting pressure on the index. On the other hand, softer data may ease inflation concerns and support expectations of a more accommodative central bank policy, which partially offsets the negative impact.
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