US 30 forecast: the index recovers from the decline and renews its all-time high
Volatility in the US 30 index remains elevated, with the trend reversing upwards once again. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.
US 30 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the US federal budget balance came in at 198 billion USD
Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market
Fundamental analysis
The latest US federal budget data for October 2025 showed a surplus of 198 billion USD, far exceeding both the forecast of 42.3 billion USD and the previous figure of -345 billion USD. This improvement in the budget balance signals strong revenue inflows from tariffs, which could have a mixed macroeconomic impact on US equities. On the one hand, a positive budget balance reduces the government’s borrowing needs, which can ease pressure on Treasury yields – a development typically seen as supportive for the stock market.
For the US 30 index, the short-term reaction is likely to be moderately positive: a stronger fiscal position boosts confidence in the sustainability of public finances and reduces sovereign debt risks. However, in the medium term, the trajectory of the index will depend on whether investors interpret this surplus as a sign of underlying economic strength or not.
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