EURUSD weekly forecast: US budget deficit and trade wars in focus
Last week the euro reached new peaks but EURUSD corrected by week’s end, stabilising amid the US holiday and market readiness to react swiftly to changing conditions. This weekly EURUSD forecast analyses factors that could drive the pair to fresh 2025 highs.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
Market focus: Donald Trump signs measures set to push the US budget deficit to its limits. On 9 July maximum trade tariffs come into effect.
Current trend: The medium-term uptrend remains intact; short-term consolidation is near 1.1780.
EURUSD forecast for 7-11 July 2025: Growth target – retest of the 1.1836 high; support levels – 1.1680 and 1.1439.
Fundamental analysis
EURUSD fundamentals remain mixed and contradictory. The dollar strengthened after the US jobs report showed 147,000 new jobs created in June – above forecasts and May’s reading. Unemployment fell to 4.1 % despite expectations of a rise. These figures lowered the chance of a near-term Fed rate cut and briefly restored dollar demand as a relatively stable currency.
In the UK and eurozone, attention turns to central bank policy. The Bank of England signals readiness to cut rates in August amid fears of overheating and a sharp economic slowdown. The ECB remains more reserved: President Christine Lagarde stated that further steps depend on data and that current rates are near neutral. This gives EUR local stability while the dollar weakens overall.
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