US 500 forecast: the index is once again heading towards a new all-time high
The US 500 may enter a correction, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: the US core PCE came in at 2.8% year-on-year
Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the stock market
Fundamental analysis
The published core PCE figure came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.9% and the previous reading of 2.9%. For the market, this is an important signal, as the core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge. The decline shows that inflationary pressure continues to ease, reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance and increasing the likelihood of a more dovish rate path in the coming months.
For the US 500, such data is a moderately positive factor. The market reaction is likely to tilt upwards, as expectations of further easing in inflation reduce uncertainty around the Fed’s decisions. However, the rise is unlikely to be sharp: the figure declined by only 0.1 percentage point, and inflation is already close to the range the Fed considers sustainable.
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