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REQ: F0rex T!me Tr@ding M@chine


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Hi Guys,

 

This seems to be an interesting system. However the thing that bugged me about those videos was the "fuzziness" of the exit criteria. The guy mentioned a 30 pip trail being used in all trades which were shown in the performance stats., though I can't see how some of the really big moves were caught with a relatively tight trail for trading off the daily charts.

 

I wanted to check this out with an EA, though I don't think my coding skills are at that level yet lol.

 

I've created an indicator here:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/YZYRZ9G4T6

 

This will plot all fibo time lines we need for live trading automatically. However, I have a problem in reading back the times from the fibo lines - I don't think there's a way to do that. Do any expert coders out there know how to do this?

 

The other option is to calculate the time lines myself, which I managed to do in terms of days. I count the daily bars between each month start date and then use the following calculations:

 

Line1 = Days+Days*.38

Line2 = Days+Days*0.618

Line3 = Days+Days

etc.

 

This would work great, however I then have the problem of working out the actual date (or appropriate daily bar) where the line would be plotted.

 

This isn't a simple matter of calculating Start Date + Line3*86400 (86400 because dates are calculated in seconds) for example because the chart only shows trading days Mon-Fri and adding dates in this way will need to cater for weekends which gets very messy.

 

I think that this system has great potential, though we really need an EA to blast through some tests, particularly using those trailing stops as this would take a very long time to manually check as we'd need to go down to lower level charts to see how price moves throughout the day to see if it would hit the stop.

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Hey soundfx,

 

This system does look inspiring. I work a full time job and this is ideal for me! Thanks so much for creating the indicator. I wish I knew how to code. I'd gladly help out with any designs for this system. I hope someone else will step in and help with the design because things look promising here!

 

Thanks so much!

Rosheen

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Hi Rosheen,

 

No probs - I'm glad the indicator helps. I find it handy rather than drawing fibos on each chart.

 

Try out the system in demo for a couple of weeks and see how it goes. I guess that you're going to have a problem adding in the trailing stop at the right time if you're out at work, so you could instead review each trade at the end of the day. If you've had a big winner you could either take profits or add the trailing stop to the running trade at that point. Any trades currently losing it's probably best to leave them to either turn into profitable trades the next day or hit the stop - if you cut these trades early you could be missing out on the next big move.

 

It's worth trading as if you were trading live and using 2% of account balance for starters. Money management is a juggling act and it may be handy for us to devise an EA (or use an existing one like Swiss Army etc.) which monitors active trades and applies trailing stops when appropriate.

 

It's probably possible to create an EA to do everything (though with lots of pips at stake we'd be advised to monitor it regularly and take profits if we've had a good run) - the difficulty is interpreting where those fibo lines are being plotted. With simple entries once a day we don't really need an EA, however it would be handy for calculating correct lot sizes. If we have multiple running trades on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and GBPJPY then all trades must be no more than our selected risk (2% of account balance conservative or 5% of account balance aggressive). This can be tricky to calculate manually because we need to take into account trades which have "locked in" profits with trailing stops and ignore them from the calculation, however we also need to include the pips to stop for any trades which are currently running against us - so that if all trades get stopped out, we still only risk 2% or 5%.

 

I don't really know as yet how the fibo time lines help - sometimes they lead to great trades and other times they don't. I've seen Daily bar breakout systems before which have filters for the breakouts which can be applied to each Daily candle and as a general rule they can do well too in the long run. However, looking back at historical entries it does seem as though these fibo time lines have some sort of "edge". They often appear just before, or shortly after the start of a big price move - it's all a bit like Gann and his phases of the moon etc. and quite eerie lol, though these lead to good trades quite often :)

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Soundfx,

 

It does seem like this system has an edge over the other daily breakout systems. It could very well be that the system is designed around fibbo areas and a lot of traders use fibbos to trade off of. I have to go over the videos again because there is a lot to take in, and some things are a bit fuzzy....like you pointed out about the 30 pip trailing stop.... Thanks again Soundfx!

 

Rosheen

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Ok guys,

 

I managed to work out how to calculate the lines within an EA and have created it. I'm away for the weekend so need some help with testing and optimising this.

 

Here's the code:

 

http://www.multiupload.com/X6YWANZGUN

 

I've run some sample tests, though I noticed after running them that my Alpari demo data had a gap from 15th Oct 2010 to 1st Nov 2010 for some reason and this would have affected my earlier trades in 2011. EURUSD with 100 pip trailing stop and 0 pip filter doubled the account in 6 months with my (slightly incorrect) data. USDCAD doesn't move as much so 100 pips for a trail is too big. Some adjustments will be needed for GBPJPY and GBPUSD too.

 

The system relies on picking up decent trends and I tried using SMA 60 or SMA 200 and only buying above or selling below, though this didn't improve performance. I also tested straight breaks of daily candles with filters and the gains were nothing like those with trades entered on the fibo lines.

 

I'm not 100% sure that the entry triggers are correct, though I believe that the calculated Fibo line dates should be ok. Based on my understanding from the videos, the entry rules are:

 

GBPJPY: If we have a Fibo line on today's candle then we set buy/sell orders on yesterday's candle.

 

The rest: If we have a Fibo line on yesterday's candle then we set buy/sell orders on yesterday's candle.

 

The rules should cater for cases where we have two lines in a row and normal entries too. Calculated Fibo lines should always relate to Mon-Fri dates, so there's no ambiguity about not lining up.

 

See if you can run this through on some decent data. Try different parameters for filters and trailing stops - or use the MT4 optimisation function to check loads of parameters. If you're really ambitious try different pairs - I recommend EURJPY and AUDUSD for starters. Don't forget to post your results here!

 

I hope you guys will get involved in testing this, as it took a long time to put together and I was in two minds whether to post it here or not.

Edited by soundfx
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Hey Soundfx,

 

First off..let me thank you for the EA...what a thing of beauty and a joy to behold! It's really a wonderful creation! I must tell you though that I have no experience in doing the kinds of tests you are asking about, but I will gladly put the EA on my demo and let it run on a few pairs and see how it goes. I wish I weren't so restricted with time, but I am. I have 2 jobs, I'm the Mother of a 3 yr old, and I have a house to try and care for....same story as a lot of people I am sure. I will try and help you out in any way I can though..

 

I have a few questions. I noticed no fibo lines are drawn with the EA. Is that right or should there be the vertical fibbo lines? Just a few thoughts too..I am also wondering about the padding option. I see you have hard coded GBPJPY as a padding of 30 and the other pairs with 20. We might want to try some other volatile pairs which would require padding of 30 or more. Is that option available with the 'Others Filter', or are the 'Others' strictly the EurUsd, GbpUsd and UsdCad pairs? Also...what are your feelings about breakeven options? Would it be wise to have the stop loss go to breakeven + 1 (or some other pips of profit besides 1) at a value of the user's choice....say go to breakeven after 60 or 70 pips and then start trailing with the 100 pip trailer once price moves to breakeven? I don't know how that would affect the total statistics... you said you doubled your account after 6 months....I'm wondering if moving to breakeven would actually help or hurt those statistics? It would prevent some big losses, but it might also close a trade which turns around and goes in the right direction afterall. I don't know...I'm just throwing it out on the table.

 

In any event, your EA looks very promising and I will help in any way I can. Thanks so Much!

Rosheen

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Hi Rosheen,

 

A forward test just running the EA in demo will be handy too, though we really need to backtest to work out the optimum parameter settings. Backtesting is an art in itself though there are a few places on the web where you can read about it.

 

I was going to forward test the system with manual entries, though I should have set the EA going instead, to avoid missing entries when I wasn't around.

 

To answer your questions...

 

The EA calculates where the Fibo lines would be, but doesn't draw them on the screen. Use the indicator to draw the lines and run the EA on the same chart and you'll be able to see if it's picking up the correct entries.

 

GBPJPY at the moment is treated as a special case with 30 pip stops and different entry criteria, any other pairs will follow the "others" rules for stops.

 

If we use other high volatility pairs which work well, we may want to add those as special cases into the EA too. You can run EURJPY and set Others stop to 30, however the entry criteria will be the same as for EURUSD for example (which is different to GBPJPY) - we'd need to change the code a bit to change the entry criteria (if that was required).

 

I too have thought about breakeven options and it's definitely something worth considering though as you say it can be a "double edged sword". I'll see if I can add that option when I get a chance, probably later on this week.

 

I only managed to double my account using specific settings on EURUSD which weren't the same as in the original system - hence the need to backtest all possibilities to find out which settings work the best.

Edited by soundfx
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Soundfx..

 

You are Awesome! I can't thank you enough for all the time and energy you've put into this. I will put the EA and indicator on a few pairs on demo and let you know how it makes out. I will have to evaluate at the end of day to see if the trade should continue running. it's probably best to do it that way as I am sometimes my own worst enemy when I am staring at trades...lol.... My mind plays tricks on me and I end up closing out trades that would have been big winners for me. This is another good reason why this system might just work for me.... I will be at work and will have no way of letting my emotions take over.... probably a very good thing!...lol... Okey dokey ... I'll keep you posted on how things are going ... I will pick EurJpy and EurCad pairs... I will give them a buffer of 30... I know they will still go by the 'others' rules of entering... let's see how they do over the next 2 weeks.... thanks so much Soundfx !!!

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