Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

[ryuroden]

TD Securities, ANZ: outlook for NZD

RBNZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's quarterly survey shows that the CPI expectations for the year ahead were 2.94% compared with 3.12% in a similar survey held the previous quarter, while inflation expectations for the next 2 years decreased from 3.00% in the previous survey to 2.86%.

Strategists at TD Securities note that during the next 2 years inflation expectations are likely to stay higher than actual inflation. In their view, in September the RBNZ can reverse its emergency 50-basis-points rate cut made in March after a massive earthquake in the nation's second largest city. Then the central bank is expected to stay on hold for several months judging the impact of the overseas economic issues on the outlook for exports and commodity prices.

Impact of China’s PMI

Analysts at ANZ believe that New Zealand’s currency is supported by the positive preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data. Investors’ risk sentiment has slightly improved after the Asian stocks performed well.

The market players will look for the drivers mainly from the global risk picture. On Wednesday, however, one should watch important 2Q retail sales figures.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD broke above resistance at $0.8320.

According to ANZ specialists, support for kiwi lies at $0.8220. If things go bearish and the pair falls below the psychological level of $0.80, it may drop to the 3-month minimum sliding during the next 2 weeks to its 200-day MA at $0.7868.

[ryuroden]

NAB: Aussie rose versus the greenback

Australian dollar rose today versus its US counterpart from the day’s minimum at $1.0385 to the levels in the $1.0500 area.

There are 2 reasons for Aussie’s gains: firstly, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data that brightened the market’s sentiment and, secondly, comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor, Ric Battellino.

The HSBC preliminary PMI went up from 49.3 in July to the 2-month maximum at 49.8 in August.

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe that the figures mean that investors don’t need to be too pessimistic about the growth pace in China.

Battellino claimed that inflation remains a big concern for the RBA. The official underlined that the strength of the national currency doesn't warrant intervention by the central bank and in the current situation the attempts to weaken Aussie’s rate would bring no results.

Economists at National Australia Bank think that such remarks mean that the central bank will stay on hold on the September 6 meeting, while the fixed-income market has been widely expecting about the possible rate cuts.

[ryuroden]

Jyske bank recommends buying USD/JPY

Currency strategists at Jyske bank advise investors to buy the greenback versus Japanese yen stopping below 75.75 and targeting 79.50 as they think that the pair USD/JPY will move gradually up on the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

Charmer Charts: comments on EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Charmer Charts note that if the single currency manages to stay above $1.4330/55 versus the greenback, it will manage to rise to 1.4520.

The specialists warn, however, that if the pair EUR/USD slides below 1.4330, it will be poised down to 1.4285.

[ryuroden]

UBS: pound may rise above $1.66

Technical analysts at UBS are bullish on GBP/USD despite the fact that pound didn’t managed today to overcome resistance at $1.6575. In their view, sterling will eventually rise to $1.6618 and $1.6661. The specialists think that the key support for British currency lies at $1.6421.

[ryuroden]

BBH and UBS regard QE3 as unlikely

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that the although investors’ sentiment has worsened during the last several weeks, the markets will get disappointed as the Fed, in their view, won’t announce the third round of quantitative easing in the current circumstances. According to the specialists, the markets will remain in the risk-off mode and the demand for safe haven currencies will continue being high.

Strategists at UBS also don’t expect the QE3. The bank thinks that the Fed will try to reassure investors by outlining the central additional monetary policy tools against the nation’s economic weakness without committing to use them. As a result, that might disappoint dollar bears.

The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak tomorrow at 6:00 pm (GMT+4) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

[ryuroden]

The background of Bernanke’s speech

All eyes today are on Ben Bernanke’s speech that will take place at 6:00 pm (GMT+4). The market is speculating whether the Federal Reserve’s Chairman signals the third round of quantitative easing or not.

Professor Lew Spellman, from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin takes a glance back examining how the Fed’s monetary policy has been changing since 2008. Spellman points out that the Federal Reserve’s approaches towards QE1 and QE2 were quite different: QE1 was a defensive step aimed to contain GDP collapse, while QE2, on the contrary, was an offensive measure.

It’s difficult to assess the results of QE2 and definitely say whether this program helped the recovery or not. The clear thing is, however, that the inflation expectations have increased – the main argument of those who don’t expect QE3.

At the same time, it’s also important to realize what the general approach of Bernanke is – as his colleagues say, the central banker is a man of action: he would rather err doing too much, rather than too little, when dealing with the consequences of financial crisis. Bernanke is also known for criticizing Japanese monetary authorities in 1999: in his view, the Bank of Japan didn’t do enough to fight deflation and encourage economic growth, while it should have kept interest rates low until inflation picked up and buy government bonds.

Commerzbank: EUR/USD prospects after Bernanke

Analysts at Commerzbank note that investors are very nervous.

If the comments of the Fed’s Chairman sound uncertain, the pair EUR/USD will get under pressure.

However, the specialists believe that as Bernanke used weak economy to justify the previous QE steps, there’s little chance that he admit that the strategy of monetary stimulus was wrong.

So, it may happen that Bernanke’s views on economy aren’t as pessimistic as many are thinking. In such case the markets will likely calm down and EUR/USD will get some support.

[ryuroden]

Jyske Bank: EUR/USD will break the «wedge»

Currency strategists at Jyske Bank note that from the beginning of the week EUR/USD remained in range between $1.4350 and $1.5000 ahead of Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. However, the latest trend on yield spreads, equities and commodities shows that the pair has strong downward potential.

That’s why the specialists recommend selling the single currency stopping above $1.4580 and targeting $1.3855. In their view, euro is trading within the “symmetrical wedge” and will break this formation this week. The bank forecasts that if the Fed’s Chairman announces QE3, EUR/USD will break the model to the upside; otherwise there will be a downside breach.

Martin Weale on the prospects of further QE in Britain

Martin Weale, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member, doesn’t think that it’s necessary to expand the central bank’s emergency 200 billion pound ($326 billion) bond-purchase program now.

However, the official says that his opinion may change if UK economy significantly weakened and inflation falls below the 2% target level. According to Weale, more QE will be necessary if the nation’s banks become more reluctant to lend, though he doesn’t believe such outcome is very likely.

[ryuroden]

The results of the central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole

The main message of the central bankers’ meeting that took place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend was that monetary policy can’t sustain the expansion of the global economy alone.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called American authorities to improve the situation at the housing market and be careful not to harm the short-term economic growth.

Ewald Nowotny, the member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said that the euro zone nations have to expand the bailout fund.

August was a rather difficult month for the Fed and the ECB as the central banks were forced to support the economy: the Fed pledged to keep the borrowing costs at the record minimum at least until the middle of 2013, while the ECB began buying Spanish and Italian bonds to ease the concerns about the debt crisis.

The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who took the post in July, warned that the world’s economy is entering dangerous phase. In her view, the risks are higher as the policy makers aren’t determined to take the necessary decisions.

The greenback weakened after Bernanke’s speech

Here are the key points of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Friday speech:

- The Fed has a range of tools that it may use to encourage the nation’s economy if needed (though Bernanke didn’t signal QE3).

- September FOMC meeting is stretched for 2 days and will take place on September 20-21 (Bernanke may try to take time and convince FOMC, primarily Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser, in the necessity of more monetary easing).

Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that the decision to lengthen the meeting will keep the market expecting more monetary stimulus.

European and Asian stocks are up, the pair EUR/USD reached maximum at $1.4550, though strategists at UBS advise investors to be cautious because euro is facing the risks from German economic slowdown and concerns about euro zone's debt markets.

[ryuroden]

Noda will become Japan’s Prime Minister

Japan’s finance minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected head of Democratic Party of Japan, the nation’s ruling party, and is on his way to take the prime minister’s seat. Tomorrow the DPJ is going to use its majority in the lower house to appoint him as premier to succeed Naoto Kan.

The main challenges for Noda will be to help the economy that contracted during the 3 quarters in a row and restore confidence in his party.

Noda’s expected to lift up the taxes in order to pay for reconstruction and shore up the welfare system – the policymaker has recently claimed that there should be no retreat from a pledge to double the sales tax to 10% by the middle of the decade. Analysts at Nomura Securities note that this might support Japanese bond market. Japanese authorities plan to spend 19 trillion yen ($248 billion) over the next 5 years to rebuild from the earthquake and tsunami.

Strategists at Barclays Capital think that Japan's currency interventions policy won’t change as the DPJ's regime will maintain. However, the specialists say that the situation will change if Noda manages to form coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito – Kan failed to do that after March 11 earthquake.

On August 24 Moody’s Investors Service lowered Japan’s credit rating by one step to Aa3 due to the government’s lack of efforts about reducing the nation’s huge debt.

Citigroup is bullish on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF

Technical analysts at Citigroup believe that as the pair USD/CHF managed to close yesterday above the 55-day MA at 0.8089, it will be able to rise to the 200-day MA at 0.8921 climbing to the levels last seen in May.

[ryuroden]

Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/CHF

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has broken above 4-month downtrend resistance line at 1.1772 and tested the levels above the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2010 to 2011.

In their view, this means that the pair EUR/CHF has potential for an advance to 1.2346/1.2400 (December 2010 and March 2011 minimums and June 2011 peak). The long-term target for euro is set at 1.2708 (55-week MA).

However, in the short run the bank expects the European currency to stall below the psychological resistance at 1.20. In their view, support for the pair is found at 1.1809 (June minimum) and 1.1557 (August 17 maximum).

ING: USD/JPY will trade in the 75/85 yen area for 6 months

Currency strategists at ING Commercial Banking believe that Japan has so far elaborated a more interventionist approach concerning the appreciation of its national currency.

The specialists refer to the steps taken by Japanese authorities – the creation of a credit facility which encourages Japanese corporations to invest overseas and monitoring of open positions at the commercial banks.

According to ING, Japan is now more likely to intervene if USD/JPY approaches 75 yen. As US currency remains weak, the analysts expect the pair to trade during the next 6 months between 75 and 80 yen.

BMO Capital: trading on hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane season is traditionally lasting from June 1 to November 30, so even though Irene that kept US under a strain last week has passed, there may be other storms.

Currency strategists at BMO Capital note that it’s possible to gain on the hurricanes which are likely to go through the Gulf and disrupt oil production.

In their view, it’s necessary to catch the moment when the storm begins to build off Africa and start buying the currencies of oil-exporting countries like Canada and Norway.

[ryuroden]

Michael Spence: 50% possibility of global recession

Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence sees the 50% chance of global economic recession.

In his view, the main risks come from Europe and the United States – the combined contraction of their GDPs will affect China’s exports and growth hitting other emerging economies.

Spence thinks that though after the 2008 crisis China managed to cushion the blow with a stimulus program, this time it wouldn’t be able to solve the problem that easily: with inflation that has reached 6.5% it would be insane for the nation’s authorities to encourage further credit growth.

Wells Fargo, Citigroup: US dollar-positive factors

Bloomberg says that US dollar has added 1.2% in August versus a of the developed world’s nine most-traded exchange rates after losing 14% from this time last year through July.

Currency strategists at Wells Fargo advise investors to buy the greenback versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc through the end of the third quarter as yen and franc are already very expensive and the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan intervene to stem their gains.

At the same time, analysts at Citigroup claim that the currencies of commodity-producing nations such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada lose some of their attractiveness due to the global economic slowdown. In their view, if the commodities and equities keep suffering, one should buy US currency in the short term.

According to the data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the greenback is undervalued by 47% versus CHF and by 31% against JPY. The OECD also says that USD is 37% below fair value against AUD and 20% versus CAD.

Never the less, economists at Royal Bank of Scotland believe that until dollar can demonstrate some independent strength, in particular, until it is supported by stronger economic data, it won’t show much of advance. The bank forecasts the greenback to end the third quarter at $1.45 versus euro and at $1.06 versus Aussie.

[ryuroden]

Commerzbank: ECB may stop hiking rates

According to the data from the European Commission, economic sentiment in the euro area fell from 103 in July to 98.3 in August, while the economists were looking forward to the decline only to 100.5. European quarterly GDP growth went down from 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year to 0.2% in the second quarter.

The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed yesterday that as the euro zone’s economic growth slows down, the central bank is reviewing its assessment of inflation risks – the results will be released in September.

It seems that Trichet’s views have changed: at the beginning of August 2 he said that risks to the inflation outlook were on the upside, while now the situation is quite the opposite. Analysts at Commerzbank note that this may mean that the European Central Bank’s rate hiking cycle is over.

As a result, the single currency fell versus the greenback. The pair EUR/USD dropped from yesterday’s maximum at $1.4550 to the levels in the $1.4400 area.

UBS: EUR/USD and AUD/USD technical levels

Analysts at UBS are bullish on the single currency and Australian dollar versus the greenback. Here’s their technical forecast.

EUR/USD

Resistance: $1.4578;

Target: $1.4697 (June 7 maximum);

Support: $1.4328, $1.4259.

AUD/USD

Resistance: $1.0786;

Target: $1.1007 (late July maximums);

Support: $1.0561.

[ryuroden]

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD

The advance of the single currency versus the greenback stopped at $1.4550 – between July 4 maximum at $1.4577 and July 27 maximum at $1.4535 – and euro eased to $1.4400/50.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that EUR/USD may slide lower, to $1.4316. At the same time, the specialists say that in the longer term the outlook for the pair will remain bullish as long as it’s trading above 2-month support line at $1.4272.

If euro breaks down this level, it will be poised down to August minimum at $1.4055.

Standard & Poor's about European economy

Standard & Poor's warned yesterday that the risk of double dip recession in the euro area has increased due to slowdown of the region’s economic growth. The rating agency notes that high unemployment and recent slump of equities may affect spending – S&P is going to watch the dynamics of consumer demand in the coming quarters.

The specialists still think, however, that Europe will be able to avoid the double dip due to such drivers of growth as demand from emerging markets and the recovery, though sluggish, in corporate capital spending.

Euro zone GDP growth slowed from 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year (q/q) to 0.2% in the second quarter casting doubts on the euro area’s prospects over the next 18 months through 2012. In addition, the agency notes that there’s still strong divergence on the European nations’ economic growth.

Standard & Poor's lowered the region’s growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.7% this year and from 1.8% to 1.5% in 2012.

WSJ: What Greel default would mean for Europe?

Economists at Wall Street Journal note that the yield on Greek 1-year government bills hit 60% yesterday. In their view, the nation’s default seems inevitable and its terms will be extremely brutal for investors with recovery rates possibly even lower than the currently anticipated 50%.

It’s very difficult to foresee the consequences in case of Greek default, but the economists believe that they’ll be beyond expectations.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, European banks have a total exposure of 94 billion euro to the Greek economy (French institutions account for 40 billion euro, while the German ones – for 24 billion euro). The International Accounting Standards Board is worried that European financial institutions have been fudging their exposure to Greece, so the situation may be actually much dimmer.

The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that European banks need urgent recapitalization. WSJ points out that the banks should seek private resources at first, but then they are to be granted with public funds if necessary. If the banks get no additional capital, there will be a significant credit contraction derailing economic growth of the core nations of the currency union. As a result, the demand for exports of the peripheral countries will fall causing a downward spiral throughout the single-currency region.

The WSJ analysts worry that it may be too late for recapitalization now as investors won’t surely be eager to pump more capital into the banks. In their opinion, such efforts should be taken a year ago.

According to WSJ, European authorities face a choice – to rescue banks or to save peripheral European economies – the first option seems to be more costly as until now Greece was supported mainly be pledges of action.

Wall Street Journal warns that the tensions between the region’s nations are likely to escalate: the European Financial Stability Facility may be seriously affected by Finland’s insistence to get additional collateral from Greece.

[ryuroden]

TD Bank: Canada’s economic forecast

Analysts at TD Bank reduced Canada’s economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3% in 2011 and from 2.5% to 2% in 2012.

According to the specialists, Canadian economy is very tightly connected with the US one, so if American GDP contracts, the same will happen with Canada’s economy.

The bank expects that the United States will avoid recession in the coming quarters, but if it's wrong that would mean serious problems for Canada.

According to the data released today, Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.4% on the annual basis 3.6% advance in the first 3 months of 2011. US annual economic growth pace in Q2 was revised downwards from 1.3% to 1%.

[ryuroden]

Mizuho: risk aversion eased, yen weakened

China’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 29-month minimum of 50.7 in July to 50.9 in August.

Currency strategists at Mizuho note that investors’ risk aversion has decreased. That made Japanese yen weaken versus the majority of its counterparts. The pair USD/JPY reached week’s maximum at 77.23 yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of regional shares is rising during the 6th day in a row.

According to the data of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, last week Japanese invested 146.3 billion yen ($1.9 billion) overseas. That’s the most since last September.

[ryuroden]

Daiwa Securities: Japan can’t conduct interventions frequently

According to the government survey of 61 large manufacturers, 63% of respondents are calling for sustained currency market intervention to weaken yen. The participants of the survey see the average rate of USD/JPY in a fiscal year through March 2012 at 81.10 yen and EUR/JPY – at 112.80 yen.

Never the less, analysts at Daiwa Securities claim that it’s difficult for Japanese monetary authorities to conduct currency interventions frequently. There are political obstacles as such moves would be criticized by other leading nations. In addition, it’s very hard to reverse the market that keeps regarding yen as a safe haven against the global growth concerns and euro zone’s debt crisis.

[ryuroden]

Wells Fargo: bullish middle-term forecast for NZD/USD

In August New Zealand’s dollar weakened versus its US counterpart falling from the August 1 maximum at 0.8841 to end the month in the 0.8500 area. However, analysts at Wells Fargo are still bullish on NZD/USD in the medium term.

Among the positive factors for kiwi the specialists cite recovery in the country's economic activity and higher inflation that increases the possibility of the RBNZ rate hike.

The specialists expect New Zealand­­­­'s dollar to recover paring last month’s decline. In their view, in the first half of 2012 the pair will trade at record highs in the 0.9100 region.

[ryuroden]

BMO Capital expects good NFP data

US August Non-Farm Payrolls data are released tomorrow at 4:30 pm (GMT+4).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the number of jobs in the United States increased in August by 75K after gaining 117K in July. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.1%.

ADP report showed that the number of employed in American private sector rose by 91K versus 109K in July.

The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed in Jackson Hole that the nation’s economic growth was insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment.

Analysts at BMO Capital believe that the data may surpass the expectations. The specialists advise investors to take risk selling US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart in the short term targeting 0.9520 and stopping at 0.9920.

[ryuroden]

UBS: we face the crisis of capitalism

George Magnus, economist at UBS regards the current crisis in the developed nations as the crisis in capitalism: companies seeking for greater profits and productivity are cutting jobs. As a result, income inequality in the US approached the highest level since the 1920s.

The specialist advises the policymakers to turn to Karl Marx for the possible solutions. In his view, it’s necessary to lower employer payroll taxes and to create fiscal incentives to encourage companies to hire people, to allow eligible households restructure mortgage debt and to ease capital adequacy requirements for well-capitalized and well-structured banks so that they could credit smaller companies.

ING: SNB rate outlook

Economists at ING think that the Swiss National Bank won’t lift up interest rates until the middle of 2012.

The specialists note that strong Swiss franc has seriously affected the national economy: according to the data released today Switzerland’s economic growth slowed down from 0.6% in the first 3 months of the year to 0.4% in the second quarter. In their view, the same pressure will be seen on the figures for the third quarter.

The effect of SNB's recent rate and liquidity injections will be seen in the final quarter of the year. Never the less, ING believes that the central bank won’t be able to ensure 2% growth rate in 2011.

[ryuroden]

Barclays Capital sees potential for pound’s advance

Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that if Switzerland and Japan manage to stop appreciation of their national currencies, British pound may strengthen.

The specialists say that there are several reasons for that. Firstly, exports don’t account for a big part of UK GDP, secondly, sterling’s advance doesn’t tend to affect stock markets and, finally, pound may be undervalued. In addition, the investors won’t expect UK government to stem pound’s growth.

Barclays underlines that the pair GBP/CHF showed better results than EUR/CHF when the SNB Vice President Tomas Jordan said on August 11about the possibility of pegging franc to euro. Pound also performed well when Japan intervened on August 4.

The strategists say that the only potential negative effect on pound may come from Britain’s economic weakness.

[ryuroden]

Commerzbank: sell EUR/USD

The single currency fell from last week’s maximum versus the greenback at $1.4550 set on Monday to the levels below $1.4200 today. The pair EUR/USD breached the short-term uptrend support line.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank advise investors to sell euro. In their view, the pair is on its way down to $1.4055/1.3997 (August minimum, 200-day MA and the 200-week MA).

According to the bank, the bears will make several attempts to break down. The specialists say that if the European currency closes the week below $1.3837, it will be poised down to $1.2000 in the longer term.

[ryuroden]

BNZ: forecasts for NZD/USD

Analysts at BNZ believe that the fair value New Zealand’s dollar versus its US counterpart has declined by 4 cents during the past month to $0.6950/0.7050 as the risk appetite index fell from 46.4% to 36.2%. As the pair NZD/USD is currently trading in the $0.8400 area, it seems to be overvalued.

However, the economic data from New Zealand is encouraging and the demand for kiwi is high. That means that the currency has become less sensitive to the surges of risk aversion. As a result, the specialists expect the pair to enjoy solid support.

According to the bank, NZD/USD will climb to $0.8700 by the end of the year. Support for the pair lies at $0.8110, while resistance is at $0.8570 in the short-term.

[ryuroden]

BMO Capital Markets: GBP/USD forecast for 2011-2012

British pound has been trading within a downside channel versus the greenback: it fell August 19 the maximum at $1.6618 to the levels in the $1.6100 zone.

Currency strategists at BMO Capital Markets believe that GBP/USD will keep declining during the next quarters.

The specialists think that sterling will trade in the $1.6200 region during the third quarter and then hit $1.5800 by the end of the year. According to BMO, in the first 3 months of 2012 the pair will reach its lowest point at $1.5500 and then start rising to $1.5700 in the second quarter, $1.6100 in the third and $1.6400 in the final quarter of the next year.

[ryuroden]

UBS: EUR/CHF will keep declining

The single currency dropped versus its Swiss counterpart from last week’s maximum of 1.1975 reached on Monday to Friday’s minimum of 1.1000.

Currency strategists at UBS point out that euro’s decline was accelerated by concerns about the euro zone’s debt crisis and disappointing US labor market data. In their view, worries about the new slump of EUR/CHF are increasing as can be seen from rising option implied volatilities in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.

The bank warns that the pair may lose more during the next few weeks unless the Swiss National Bank tries to stabilize the rate of its national currency.

[ryuroden]

J.P.Morgan: trade ob ECB meeting

The European Central Bank meeting is taking place on Thursday. The ECB will announce its benchmark rate at 3:45 pm (GMT+4).

Strategists at J.P.Morgan Asset Management advise investors to be very attentive to the language of the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

If Trichet’s comments sound less dovish than the market hopes, that may give euro a lift versus the greenback. The specialists recommend selling EUR/USD on its advance in the $1.45 with target at $1.41 and stop at $1.47.