How I made $6,000.00 in few minutes.Fib method by TRADERBEAUTY

[phorbo007]

Hi Jane - Incredible run up in the ES. Did you add more shorts to your 31 contracts as planned? I'm learning a lot watching you trade this. Thanks.

[Traderbeauty]

thanks

not yet- waiting for the 88 fib which is 2104.25 to the tick.

you have to understand- i banked already many points in this down move so unless the market goes really high i am not going to be hurting.

in the meantime i keep banking points-

for example- friday i shorted 2093.75 , 2097.5 and 2100.75 and got out of all at 93.50 for around 10 points.

i have orders now through the night and monday which is going to be slow to short at 2106.75 and exit at 2099.25 which is another 7 points- nothing wrong with that- already have the orders with brackets.

but i do expect it to reverse as i said from the 2104.25 area.

jane

[phorbo007]

thanks

not yet- waiting for the 88 fib which is 2104.25 to the tick.

you have to understand- i banked already many points in this down move so unless the market goes really high i am not going to be hurting.

in the meantime i keep banking points-

for example- friday i shorted 2093.75 , 2097.5 and 2100.75 and got out of all at 93.50 for around 10 points.

i have orders now through the night and monday which is going to be slow to short at 2106.75 and exit at 2099.25 which is another 7 points- nothing wrong with that- already have the orders with brackets.

but i do expect it to reverse as i said from the 2104.25 area.

jane

 

I understand, you are trading a "core" short 31 contracts as a swing trade but also "scalp" intraday to bank some points. I originally thought you were going to add more shorts at 78% fib (2089) as planned but looks like you are waiting some more. Ok, diligently watching.

[Traderbeauty]

yes- you are correct

i have long term positions, mid term position which i can hold overnight but getting out with 5-10 points when i can and then i have the day trading where i get between 1 and 6 points normally.

i did not short at the 78 fib and let me explain why.

look at the image- see the volume at the bottom and the size of the bars- it was very obvious that the market is still going up. i waited , i saw that the 78 was broken to the upside meaning i should be waiting for the next level which is the 88 fib.

and way and behold- the market was showing signals of decelerating- let me explain ( dont have too much time so have to be short).

volume is the gas for the car and the body ( of the bar) is the millage we get - so look at the fist up bar- high volume and high millage- same for the second one going up- LOOK AT THE THIRD-

guys- i am teaching you stuff here that is priceless and most of you keep hunting for worthless indicators while you need NONE.

look at the third bar up- we have the same volume ( gas ) actually slightly higher- but look at the millage-sucks- market used the same amount of gas but only got 1/3 or 1/4 of the miles ( look at the body size).

now use your brain- WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? the car or the engine is not doing well- meaning - the upside direction is not doing so well- or at least starting to stop at least temporary.

look at bar 4- the same story- lots of volume but hardly any up move- that means that there are a lot of sellers here.

volume is the only indicator that will not lie to you- if the volume was made out of buyers only the body would have been huge but its very small- again- meaning- there are a lot of sellers and most likely the move is over.

i waited patiently and shorted 9 more contracts right at the level i forecast way before at 2104.25 - the daily is showing 2103.75 but i did my calculations on a smaller chart and fine tuned it and got in almost at the top of the market- all by using volume charts, fib levels and some common sense.

if the market continue to go up i will short and exit , short and exit etc till it rotates.

my next short is at 2106.75 and exit at 2099.5 ( orders already in)

hope that you learn something because this is the same for day trading- i am just showing you the daily so you can follow as if its in slow motion.

take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/n2th356.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

on post #28 i forecast that there will be a reversal at 2104.25 to the tick - the high was 2104.75 and since then the market dropped almost 30 points.

not bad missing one tick.

 

market now is at 2075.5 as i write this post.

would love to hear from any of you that had another method to catch the top almost to the tick.

seems like i am talking to the wall (:

jane

[DayTraderProfesional]

Hi Traderbeauty,

I was on my screen when the market was at this area and previuosly i readed your comment. Nice and accurate call!!!

[v777]

your analogy of the Gas & Car ...Volume & Mileage was worth the price in admission :-) ... now to figure out what fibs to use at the right times off of which pivots ... but thanks for sharing that little gold nugget ... big thumbs ups to those type of nuggets >:D<

[Traderbeauty]

thx v777

 

So here is the next lesson-

 

One of the biggest problem in trading is to derive where will our target be- there are some lame solutions like automatic stops or just using previous high low etc.

 

I dont use any of these. listen very carefully because no one will teach you that or explain it to you.

 

This is like newton law- i look where i got my signal and derive my target accordingly.

 

So here is my forecast-since we got out signal right at the 88 fib i expect it to go down to the 112 fib extension which is 1965.75 - bottom right arrow.

 

now here is some extra magic- i measured for symmetry using the F9 key so first measure is the two left arrows which is the last move down. i use the last low of 2104.75 and add that exact distance and this is just amazing - i am getting the same exact level 1965.91 - so we are talking about 1 tick difference.

 

so- bottom line- my target now is 1965.75 but i am going to add 1 or 2 points just to make sure i get a fill.

so now you can make the math- i got in at 2104.25 and will exit at 1967 for about 137 points- if that is not good or accurate then please correct me.

 

now- keep in mind that things can change because the market is active and keeps changing all the time but this is almost 7000$ per 1 contract that is very good.

 

so lets keep watching and see what is happening in real time.

p.s- i am not really thrilled with the last two days down move compared to the volume- i would expect a mich stronger move using that gas-volume- but there is nothing i can do other than plan.

 

take care and good night

 

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/QImHt6B.jpg

[⭐ laser1000it]

 

now here is some extra magic- i measured for symmetry using the F9 key so first measure is the two left arrows which is the last move down. i use the last low of 2104.75 and add that exact distance and this is just amazing - i am getting the same exact level 1965.91 - so we are talking about 1 tick difference.

 

TB, without pressure can You explain in detail ? TIA.

[admis]

TB, without pressure can You explain in detail ? TIA.

 

Let Jane sleep well... ;)

If your question concerns the target, there is nothing to explain more than mention that Jane utilizes AB=CD pattern (as on the image below):

[⭐ laser1000it]

Thanks Admis good explanation. Betray to me the F9 key (sorry)

[Traderbeauty]

Thanks admis

it was just too late at night when i posted it- just wanted to share with you all how simple it is to decide where your target is going to be.

now- again- things can change and if they do then i have to make changes to everything.

but when you have the symmetry ( ab=cd) confluence with the 112 fib almost to the tick you just ask yourself how can that be...

i guess we will all find out very soon.

[wcicom]

I don't think initial up leg is over yet Jane, seems like today's low was a perfect wave 4, with wave 5 taking out 2104.75 is yet to come.

[Traderbeauty]

thx wcicom

could be- i let the market tell me what to do.

if thats the case i will short again at the 1.272 fib extension.

[wizard101]

good resistance on poss lower high "right shoulder" if she can hold the 161.8/78.6% confluence.....

 

http://screencast.com/t/c3VBskzwfr

[crlsalva1]

ES Price = 2,118 now what do we do?

[Spectral_Analyst]

A statistically significant performance edge can be measured by looking at atleast 2-3 years of trades taken using a setup. What is the Maximum adverse excursion and favorable excursion of this method that you have described in this thread?

 

Edge = (Average Profit per trade)x (Number of profitable trades) - (Average Loss per trade)x(Number of Loss trades)

 

When this edge shows positive for a period of more than few years on a month to month average basis, we can say the method has an edge, or in other words, fibs move the market and the inefficiency is being spotted by this setup, which is giving it the edge.

 

Every trader has a jackpot trade once in a while, from a $6k win to a few Million dollar win, depending on the size you trade. Personally, i got couple of 170%++ gain trades couple of time, recent one being during the brexit and before that during the yuan devaluation. 8.5% gain on a trade while trading with 20x leverage. But that wont make my method a working setup. When i calculate my MAE, it goes to around 20% of my trade price, making it a high risk setup in a long run.

 

Hitting a home run and specifically dedicating a thread to it creates something called "Availability heuristic" which is a huge bias a trader fights with on a daily basis. Our memory of events may make us attach more importance to things than they actually are.

 

Not being too philosophical, only difference between science and religion is, science gives you complete data to test and establish facts, while religion shows specific cases where it was right, to enforce faith in its believers.

 

This method can be shown to have an edge by calculating MFE, MAE, Edge, Drawdown from all the MtoM trades taken in last few years than by analyzing a few selective charts and trades, till then its a on the other side of the line between science and religion.

 

Nonetheless, i appreciate the effort made in posting by the members.

 

Take care.

[Traderbeauty]

All I was trying to show with this thread is how important and how good are fib levels when you combine them with leg analysis.

My longer term analysis obviously was wrong so now i will wait patiently to a longer term divergence with a nice retracement and will exit some shorts.

BTW- this is the method that i am using every single day ( at least most of the time ) to trade with the market direction intraday and its working almost 90% of the times every single day.

The reason why its working is because this is how the basic natural moves of the market are moving.

When you have a higher high higher low you expect the market to continue from a fib to a fib and if the fib is broken then you know that we have a move on a higher time level.

In my previous post I had a perfect reaction off the 88 fib but if you look carefully you will see that i wrote that things can change because the market is active and scenarios can change and this is exactly what happened.

You cannot stick to a move - you need to adjust and adapt you reaction according to the market.

Its like playing chess against the market- it makes a move- you react- you have a plan but if the market changes his move you have to do the same.

Basically we are at highs that are very fragile, market is over extended and over bought, if you look at the daily chart you can see that it went up but the volume was not that high so again- i expect a move down .

in the meantime i continue with day trading where i can go long and short many times during the day and has nothing to do with my positions.

Traderbeauty-Jane

[wcicom]

Hi Jane and everyone following this post.

 

If anyone saw my posts in Jane's first thread on the subject of Fibonacci trading from last year, know that I am the biggest advocate of Fibonacci trading, probably even bigger than Jane, simply have been doing this for more years than Jane.

 

With that said....trading Fib levels successfully with consistently large percent profitability - is not quite that simple.

As important as Fib levels are, especially major ones like - 61.8, 78.6, 88.6, and extensions like 127, 161.8 and 261.8. But as with most tools in trading - I have seen overwhelming majority of these levels fail.

 

This brings me to the chart below, we can see initial impulsive swing lower, then near perfect "ABC" zig-zag correction, but then.....instead of Market following initial decline lower with even more dynamic sell off - something else happened - Markets put in a "lazy" swing lower which resembled corrective action more than anything else and an accumulation phase. At that point Market was telling us that initial sell off was "it" for the most part, and Market structure was not indicative of strong decline resuming. The point is - even though I am a huge proponent of Fibs - Fibs do not work on their own nearly enough to trade of off in isolation. Market Structure, Pattern and velocity of swings are all necessary prerequisites before Fibs can show strong and reliable CIT zones.

 

 

P.S. Not sure why image is not showing

Edited July 10, 2016 by wcicom

[Traderbeauty]

wcicom

I totally agree with you- fibs are just the street address where a trade or move can happen.

In order to be a successful trader you need to learn how the market moves- I dont want to call it price action because normally its just double tops-bottoms or trendlines etc.

You need to dig much deeper and watch each leg going up or down- then apply fibs and that will give you the exact answer where the market is going.

You need to do that in different time frames and only then you can see the exact entire picture.

trading just plain fibs is dumb and i am not sure what that means- how can you just trade fibs ? you need to use price action- for example - higher highs - higher lows and then enter long at a fib or short at a fib extension.

one thing i can say- the bigger the time frame is- the less accurate the fibs are going to be so that is why my main trading chart is renko spectrum 4-1 ticks but i also watch constantly the 8-2- but my trading is the 4-1 .

[⭐ elishar]

ES Price = 2,118 now what do we do?

 

 

 

There is a nice looking Broadening Top in the SPX, so this is what could happen in the near future:

 

 

 

 

 

[Traderbeauty]

very very good elishar

[wcicom]

Hi Jane,

 

In your post above you were asking how can you trade just Fibs. When you said in your earlier posts that when the Market will get to such and such number, and sometimes a hundred points higher than where it was at that time - you would sell that level. With Market being so far away from your predetermined price....certainly no other info was available yet, so wasn't it at that point intent to trade just Fib levels ?

Edited July 12, 2016 by wcicom

[stnc]

Hi Jane,

 

I want to say thank you many times! But first of all, I apologize for my English :) It is not native to me.

Your posts are really help me to be more patient and wait for opportunities without trying catch every single market move.

 

In general I'm new for the trading and just learning, but already made a lot of mistakes because after some course education I thought that trading is easy. Right now i see that it's with simple idea, but not easy at all.

 

After a series of losses I started to learning more deeper and found OFA materials and not so long ago found your posts also.

I learning and practice about one year now (unfortunately I have only 2 trading days per week) and this materials really improve my skill.

 

I try to combine your way Fibs and OFA Mark+DB levels (high-low volume areas, important transaction areas, CWAP, VWAP) and it gave a good results. Before that i trying to go long-short on every top-bottom and consolidations. Now I'm waiting the market only where fibs and ofa levels stick together. And most of time it works! Market often doing something on these levels.

 

So again, thank you very much for what you are doing :)

** i can't find a thanks button here, see only reputation star **

 

But in fact, I continue to losing because I still don't understand how to enter. And even with these good levels market very often hit my stops if I place it early or I miss the move because trying to wait more or can't find any signals.

Could you please be so kind and give me some advice about entries?

 

 

 

Here's today my miss example. I grab some windows on one screen to show it:

I waited a top of the move at 2044.50-2045.50 (dayly and intraday fibs). Market stops at the 2025.25.

Great, but I didn't take any actions, because it was only 10 mins from open and the price could be volatile or go further.

Usually i waiting about 15-30 minutes from open or when 1 minute volume become less than 10k.

 

After the top the price went down to the 38 fib level (orange arrows on the screenshot).

It is also a low volume area on the day profile (blue arrow), so this is a area where I wanted to go long if I can find setups.

I also waited for a possible longs on 61 fib (near VAH of previous day) and 78 (low volume area of prev day) - green arrows.

 

But when the price came to the 38 fib and started to go up, i didn't see anything

- on OFA chart there was a lot of sellers hitting the bid with only one last blue (weak) on every candle. The buyers showed themselves only at 2139.50 and further (gray arrows) - this is already a far price with a big stop to enter.

- on renko 2-1 just a candle tail without any transaction and higher high, higher low.

 

Yes, potentially I could enter near 2140.00-2140.50 with stop bellow candle at 2139.50 but from this 38 fib I looked for a target 2141.75-2142.50 (50-60 fibs of down move and day VPOC, you can see these fibs on renko 2-1).

Target may be greater if buyers will continue to push up, but we don't know it.

So I missed the reverse and also I afraided to enter long on higher prices, because this move near the long time top and can start to consolidate or reverse to go short.

 

Am I wrong? How are you doing your entries?

 

Many thanks for your respond!

With best regards :)

 

http://i.imgur.com/qdl1PH9.png

Edited July 12, 2016 by stnc

[Traderbeauty]

Wcicom

Stnc

 

I will only post an example of my method for Day Trading:

dont have too much time so will make it short:

 

Market opened and and went up- I got a nice confirmation ( plain renko 1 tick no need for any fancy bars) to go short.

Since the fib at the top was perfect ( left arrow) there was no need to even wait for a confirmation- you could just put an order AHEAD of time at 2138.75.

So what did i do here ? I used price action- or better say- leg action and forcasted the moves of the market.

Since there was higher high and higher low i looked to enter long and i did that right at the fib.

So bottom line- i knew what to do ( meaning shorting first and then going long) but i used the fibs as addresses and locations only.

I did not trade fibs - i traded leg action- but the fibs gave me an exact entry- so fib is just a tool but you need to learn how to read the market.

These 2 trades should have given you 4 points for the short and almost 10 points on the long- not bad for a days work.

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/ldzbA5x.jpg