Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Bulls' Disappointment Pressures on US Dollar

 

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On Wednesday, the US currency fell to a two-month low against the euro and was significantly loosing ground against the other competitors. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data on ADP non-farm employment change in the United States in April was disappointing. Put it to a very weak statistics on the trade balance - and we get a new wave of concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates in the near future.

 

Recall that at the last Fed meeting it has been said that in the first quarter of this year, the US economy faced a slowdown, but this is a temporary phenomenon, and in the second quarter things should get better. But the data is for April and this is the second quarter, but instead of expected 199 000 the number of non-farm employment in the US for the month increased by only 169 thousand. On Friday will be released official data on employment, and usually they are not very different from the ADP information, so the market will be prepared for the worst, in advance laying weak data in the price.

 

Analysts believe that in order to keep the dollar on the high position which it has achieved due to expectations of Fed rate increasing, bulls need more than just a phantom possibility of this increase. It should be confirmed by the statistics, that the US economy is indeed recovering, and then the central bank will simply have no choice but to tighten the monetary policy.

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Market Pulse 05/07

 

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The main event of the day on Thursday will certainly be parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom, the results of which could affect the fact whether the country will remain a member of the European Union. Australia today has already published a number of data on the labor market, including such important statistics as the unemployment rate and the employment change for April. We also should not forget about the data on unemployment claims in the US, which will be released during the US trading session.

 

6:00 ** Factory Orders - March (Germany)

6:45 ** Industrial Production - March (France)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that in March, the volume of industrial orders in Germany rose after the previous month decline. The volume of industrial production in France, according to forecasts, should also show a slight increase.

 

12:30 *** Building Permits - March (Canada)

 

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Changing in the volume of permits for housing construction in Canada is an important leading health indicator of the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Strong data could support the currency.

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - May (USA)

12:30 ** Counting Claims - April (USA)

 

Strong influence on the market (USD). Recently, these data have a significant impact on the the US dollar dynamics. The market takes them into account, since the statistics on the labor market is one of the main landmarks for the Fed.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Market Renewed Subject of OPEC Production Cuts

 

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On Thursday, the oil is under the pressure again. Vista Brokers Analysts say that traders have fixed profits after a long rally in the market. In addition, OPEC once again reminded of themselves. The market expects that at the next meeting exporting countries will leave production quota of "black gold" on the same level.

 

Recall that from the beginning of the year oil prices rose by about 50% due to lower production in the US, as well as the volatile situation in the Middle East. On Wednesday, prices in oil market rose to this year highs amid the dollar weakness, caused by the negative statistics, as well as inventories decrease in the United States. For the first time in this year, crude oil inventories, according to EIA, were down by 3.9 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing terminal in Oklahoma fell last week by 12 thousand barrels that is rather a lot, given that in recently they have steadily increased.

 

However, the problem of oversupply in the market has not disappeared, and as soon as geopolitical risks cease to attract the active attention of traders, it is once again coming to the fore. During morning trading, Brent crude oil fell to $ 67.31 per barrel compared to $ 68 per barrel at the close of trading on Wednesday, as well as with a maximum of 2015 at $ 69.63, also reached on Wednesday. WTI fell to $ 60.44 from $ 61 a barrel at the close of the previous session. Note that after the data on the reduction of inventories in the US, this brand of oil rose in price at once by more than $ 2, reaching a high of $ 62.58 a barrel.

 

Analysts also say that the oil market is beginning to be affected with the approaching meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 5. OPEC representatives have repeatedly expressed their unwillingness to reduce the quota production of the resource, arguing that with the fear of losing market share and injustice of this requirement, only facing these countries, but not the United States and Russia.

 

At the last meeting the organization left the daily production quota at 30 million barrels per day, while the world price at that time fell almost doubled in comparison with June. At the next meeting the quota will be even less likely reduced, since recently oil prices rebounded. Most likely, for the reduction will traditionally perform Venezuela and Algeria, as well as Iran. The main opponent of such a strategy is Saudi Arabia, which is the leader of the cartel.

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Vista Brokers: Pound Drops prior to UK Parliamentary Elections

 

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Today parliamentary elections started in the UK, and their results could materially affect the pound. Vista Brokers analysts say that prior to the opening of polling stations pound declined, updating session lows. At the time of writing, the election has already started and the British currency continues to fall against the US dollar.

 

Today's elections will determine the composition of the government and, therefore, a political course that the country will follow the next five years. The peculiarity of these elections is that chances of Conservatives and the Labour Party to win, according to preliminary surveys, are roughly equal. However, if the Conservatives win, the country expects a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union. It shall entail great risks for business and the economy both for the country and the EU as a whole.

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Vista Brokers: US Labor Market Data Encouraged Market Participants' Optimism

 

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On Thursday morning, the euro continued to strengthen against the US dollar, renewing multi-months highs. Vista Brokers analysts say that market participants continued to take a lead from the weak data on the US employment from ADP, as well as comments of the Fed's chairperson, Janet Yellen. The dollar fell against most of its competitors in the foreign exchange market; German government bond yields rose.

 

However, later the dollar's decline was replaced by the growth, when during the US trading session was published data on unemployment claims in the United States. During the week ended May 2, the number of initial claims rose by 3,000 to 265,000, while analysts had expected the growth to 277,000.

 

Thus, the number of applications remains at 15-year low, being below 300,000 a ninth consecutive week. This picture can be regarded as a clear signal of the US labor market recovery. Of course, market participants could not ignore this signal, and the dollar has jumped to session highs against the euro after the publication. The strong data on unemployment claims has also encouraged investor's hope that today's statistics on the employment from the Labour Department would not be so disappointing as the data from ADP.

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Market Pulse 08.05

 

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During the US trading session on Friday will be published most anticipated data of the day - the official employment data in the United States. After the ADP non-farm employment change data on Wednesday was much worse than forecast, investors expect the confirmation or refutation of this statistics from the Labour Department.

 

6:00 ** Industrial Production - March (Germany)

6:00 ** Trade Balance - March (Germany)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Expectations for these two indices are rather optimistic, although probably a greater impact on the dynamics of the euro against its main competitor today will have expectations regards the evening statistics on the US labor market. However, in March, analysts expect a slight increase in industrial production and an increase in the positive balance of foreign trade.

 

7:15 ** Consumer Price Index - April (Switzerland)

 

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). The Consumer Price Index is one of the key benchmarks for the central bank, so these statistics can affect the dynamics of the Swiss franc. In April, it is expected a weak growth on a monthly basis and a decline year on year.

 

8:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - March (UK)

8:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - March (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports in the reporting month. Higher values are favorable for the currency, reflecting the lower outflow of money from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - April (Canada)

12:30 *** Employment Change - April (Canada)

12:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - April (Canada)

12:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - April (Canada)

 

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Expectations for labor market data in Canada are not too optimistic: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate in April rose by 0.1%, while the number of employed increased much less than in March. Weak data may renew talks of new stimulus measures from the Bank of Canada.

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - April (USA)

12:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - April (USA)

12:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - April (USA)

12:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - April (USA)

12:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - April (USA)

12:30 ** Participation Rate - April (USA)

12:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - April (USA)

 

Strong influence on the market (USD). These may cause a surge in volatility in financial markets and attract attention of traders. Forecasts are quite optimistic: reduction of unemployment by 0.1% and a strong enough job growth in April. However, the picture is spoiled by the ADP data, which showed a much smaller increase than expected. As a rule, official statistics as a whole repeats this data.

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Vista Brokers: Pound Rose amid Likely Conservatives Victory in Parliamentary Elections

 

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During morning trading on Friday, the British pound continued to recover ground against the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts note that the currency has returned to the upward trend on Thursday evening, when the first data of exit polls on the results of parliamentary elections in the UK was released. Just a few minutes after polls were closed, the media have published survey results, according to which a majority in parliament will probably get the Conservatives.

 

Recall that this elections were called one of the most unpredictable in the history of Great Britain, as a preliminary survey had showed virtually the same chance of winning for the Conservatives and the Labour party. Many experts have suggested that none of major parties will be able to form a majority in parliament, so they will have to negotiate a coalition. However, it seems that the Conservatives, led by the current Prime Minister David Cameron will remain at the helm for another five years. And by the way, Cameron may also keep the post.

 

According to a survey published by the British media, the Conservatives won 316 seats, while the opposition Labor party - 239. Scottish nationalists should get 58 seats.

 

Amid this information, the pound rose from $ 1.5245 to $ 1.5448, moving further away from the reached last month six-year low of $ 1.4567. Also currency rose against the euro.

 

Analysts warn, that enthusiasm, due to the fact that the Conservatives can keep the lead, is premature, because the official results have not yet been announced. In addition, in the case of his re-election David Cameron promised to hold a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU, so that the country will soon face the new turmoil. Do not forget about the Scottish nationalists, who can make a coalition with the Labour party. The question of the independence of Scotland in the United Kingdom is also acute.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Weak Data from China Supported Gold

 

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On Friday, the precious metal is growing, restoring the position after the previous day decline. Vista Brokers analysts say that gold has increased from 1181.6 to 1186.1 dollars per ounce after the release of disappointing statistics on the trade balance, as well as export and import in China. Risks associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy increased investor interest in gold as a safe asset.

 

Balance of foreign trade in April has reached the point of 34.1B, but analysts expected an increase to 34.5B. The volume of exports from the country decreased by 6.4% against the expected growth of 1.6%. The volume of imports showed a significant decline - by 16.2%, after the March figure was also down by 12.7%.

 

Recall that on Thursday gold was losing ground after the US data on unemployment claims was stronger than expected. The Labor Department reported that the number of initial claims for the week ended May 2 rose by 3,000 to 265,000. Analystsexpected the rise in the number of applications to 277 thousand. Despite the increase, the index remains at the 15-years low.

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Market Pulse 06/22

 

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The most important event on Monday is the Euro summit and the meeting of the Eurogroup. At the unscheduled meeting will be discussed the possibility of providing the financial assistance to Greece. At the last meeting Eurogroup representatives have not reached an agreement with representatives of Athens on the reform program, it is possible that the country may leave the euro zone. The deadline for the agreement is the 30th of June.

 

14:00 ** Flash Consumer Confidence - June (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Eurozone consumer confidence index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and development in the future. The growth rate reflects the confidence in the economy, favorable affecting the currency.

 

14:00 ** Existing Home Sales - May (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The volume of home sales in the secondary market. The important indicator of the US housing market health, has a tendency to affect markets. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

 

17:30 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - June (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). John Cunliffe takes the post of BOE Deputy Governor of financial stability. Traders and investors take his words into account, because they may contain clues to changes in the regulation or evaluation of the state of the economy.

[Vistabrokers]

Greece is on the Verge of Default

 

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Vista Brokers analysts note that on Friday, the euro was mostly falling against the US dollar amid growing fears over a default by Greece. Although at the end of the last week the position of the US currency was still weakened - the dollar has fallen against the single currency and the Japanese yen due to shifting of the Fed rate hike expectations. The EUR / USD has fallen on Friday by 0.09% to 1.1352, dropping throughout the day to 1.1293.

 

The single currency remains under the pressure as Greece for many months can not enter into an agreement with international creditors (EU, ECB and IMF), that is why it has no access to external financial assistance. Until June 30, Athens must implement the next payment to the International Monetary Fund, and if for the next week, the agreement is not reached, Greece will have to default. Such a scenario may lead to the country's exit from the euro zone.

 

There is another thing to do - Greece may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance, but it happens only if creditors will agree with conditions, in particular, spending reducing and providing of a budget reform plan that will satisfy the "troika".

Edited June 22, 2015 by Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Oil is Rising amid Expectations for Greek Debt Deal

 

On Monday, oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" upward trend is supported with the expectation that as a result of today's talks at the Eurogroup meeting, Greece will receive financial assistance. On Sunday, Athens has given international lenders a new reform plan, and it is hoped that it will be finally adopted by the "troika" (EU, ECB, IMF).

 

During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange in London Brent futures for delivery in August have risen by 0.7% to $ 63.46 per barrel. Analysts remind that on Friday these futures have hit $ 62.34, the lowest level since June 5, before closing at $ 63.02 per barrel (-1.93%).

 

Market tensions eased after Greece on Sunday has introduced the new reform plan, stating that the country may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance. If the agreement between Athens and creditors is not reached until 30 June (deadline of paying to the IMF), Greece may be forced to default.

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Market Pulse 06/23

 

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Tuesday in the Forex market is full of important information. Australia has already published the house price index, and China - the manufacturing PMI index from HSBC. In European countries today will be published indices of activity in various sectors of the economy.

 

7:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (France)

7:00 ** Flash Services PMI - June (France)

7:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (France)

7:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (Germany)

7:30 ** Flash Services PMI - June (Germany)

7:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (Germany)

8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (euro zone)

8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - June (euro zone)

8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for most indices are optimistic. The data on the manufacturing sector are considered to be the most important.

 

12:00 *** FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks - June (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Powell is actively involved in the Fed monetary policy changing. His comments may have an impact on the market, as they show sentiments of the Federal Open Market Committee members.

 

12:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - May (USA)

12:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - May (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). The change in the number of orders for durable goods is a leading indicator of production trends, as well as investment activity. It is expected that the overall index has declined in May, but the core one, which excludes volatile orders for transport equipment, has increased.

 

13:45 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The index of purchasing managers in manufacturing shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation. The growth of the rate or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.

 

14:00 ** New Home Sales - May (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Sales of new buildings in the USA completes the picture of the housing market after the statistics on sales in the secondary market. It has a high value. New home sales index is regarded as an indicator of confidence in the economy.

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Vista Brokers: Greece Deal Optimism Supported Euro

 

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On Monday there was a Eurogroup meeting, where an urgent problem of providing financial aid to Greece was discussed again. Vista Brokers analysts note that optimistic expectations regards the results of this meeting have supported the euro - EUR / USD has hit a session high of 1.1404.

 

The single currency continued to grow, despite the fact that at the meeting both parties (Athens and the "troika" of creditors) have not reached the long-awaited agreement. However, the chairman of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum called the new reform plan submitted by Greece on Sunday, “broad and comprehensive”. He also noted that international creditors have not yet had the opportunity to analyze the plan in full, and when they do, perhaps the next meeting will be held. Investors expect that later this week the agreement will be concluded. Optimistic expectations were also supported by the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who has expressed his hope for the deal with Greece by the end of the week.

 

Later, the euro has lost its positions against the dollar after the release of the US existing home sales. Sales have risen in May by 5.1% against expected 4.8% after the previous month index had decreased by 2.3%.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Falls prior to Fresh API Data

 

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On Tuesday, futures on West Texas Intermediate are declining, having lost in early European trading 0.44% to $ 60.12 per barrel. Vista Brokers analysts say that investors are waiting for the fresh data from the American Petroleum Institute, which will show the last week change in volume of crude oil and petroleum products inventories in the US. Statistics on stocks reflects the change in the volume of consumption of the world's largest buyer of oil, so that this data is quite important for the market.

 

On Wednesday, the oil market participants will also expect official statistics from the Energy Department, which is expected to show a decline in crude inventories in the United States by 1.8 million barrels for the week ended June 19.

 

Analysts recall that some time ago the pressure on the "black gold" price was provided with the fact that the level of oil production in the US is in no hurry to fall, despite the reduction in the number of drilling rigs. Thus, according to Baker Hughes, the number of drilling rigs has been declining for the 28th consecutive week, but production thus remains at the level of 9.6 million barrels per day, which is the highest since 1970s.

 

Nevertheless, today on ICE Futures Exchange in London August futures for Brent have fallen by 0.08% to $ 63.29 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI is at $ 3.17 a barrel.

 

Waiting for the evening data on stocks in the United States does not prevent participants of the oil market, as, indeed, participants of all financial markets, from closely monitoring the situation in negotiations of Greece and its creditors. Recall that on Monday at the meeting of the Eurogroup agreement has not been reached, but many top officials of the euro zone have indicated that it is likely to happen later this week.

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Market Pulse 24.06

 

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On Wednesday, the German IFO Institute will publish its indicators on the state of the German economy. It should also be noted that in the US the final GDP data will be released.

 

8:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - June (Germany)

8:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - June (Germany)

8:00 ** IFO - Expectations - June (Germany)

 

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for indexes of the German IFO institute are not too optimistic. It is expected that the current assessment indicator will remain on the level of the previous month, while the other two will reduce. The most important of these three indicators is considered the business climate one, based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. In June, analysts expect a reduction of the index.

 

8:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). It indicates the number of executed loans to buy housing. It allows to evaluate the activity in the British mortgage market, according to data from the largest banks.

 

12:30 ** Final GDP - Q1 (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is expected that the final data for the first quarter will show a decrease of the US economy by 0.2%.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Fell to 2-week Low

 

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Negotiations of Greece and international lenders continue to keep the market in suspense. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Tuesday EUR / USD has dropped to a two-week low – 1.1136 after earlier hope for the conclusion of negotiations for some time was supporting the growth of the pair. Not only the continuation of the "Greek saga" has weakened the euro, but the rally of the US dollar.

 

On Wednesday, euro zone finance ministers have set the time period within which the agreement on Greece to be negotiated, and it is no longer on June 30 but on 25 - the experts gave 48 hours to analise a next reform plan provided by Athens.

 

In the US, controversial macroeconomic statistics, together with statements of the FOMC member Jerome Powell, have supported expectations about this year Fed interest rate hike. Thus, Powell has said that he estimates the probability of the rate hike in September, as 50/50. With regard to statistics, data on durable goods sales were lower than forecasts, but the volume of home sales in the primary market has increased by 2.2% to the highest level since February 2008 – 546 000, that significantly exceeded forecasts.

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Vista Brokers: Asian Stocks Rose on Expectations regards Greece

 

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During the Asian session on Wednesday, major stock indexes in the region have risen. Investors hope that a deal of Greece with international creditors is about to be concluded – as Vista Brokers analysts say. Supported with optimistic expectations, the Japanese Nikkei 225 has risen by 0.60%, Shanghai Composite – by 0.84% ​​and S & P / ASX 200 – by 0.27%.

 

Today, the left wing of the Greek Parliament has expressed confidence that on Thursday the deal with creditors, concluded by the government, will be approved by Parliament, despite the fact that yesterday, some members of the ruling party "Syriza" have aggressively embraced the possibility of the agreement. After all, to please creditors Tsipras had to agree to raise taxes and reduce pension costs. Recall that last Sunday Athens gave "troika" an updated reform plan, which was called by Eurogroup representatives sufficiently comprehensive. It gave hope to financial markets participants that the Greek saga may finally end soon.

 

The next stage of talks will be held on Thursday - representatives of Greece and creditors had 48 hours to study the updated reform plan, discuss some details and to finally adopt the decision. Perhaps that is exactly what will happen tomorrow.

 

Analysts say that during the Asian session today were published minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting. An interesting moment that came to be known of the protocols is that one of the board members, Takahide Kuichi, voted to reduce the amount of assets purchases by the Bank of Japan from 80 to 45 trillion euros, saying that aggressive incentives have unpleasant side effects that harm the economy. Thus, the central bank left the size of the program unchanged, but the voices were 8 to 1.

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Vista Brokers: Gold Gains Momentum

 

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During Wednesday's morning trading, gold was gaining momentum. Vista Brokers analysts note that precious metals market participants are closely watching the developments with regard to Greece. Negotiations are nearing completion, and it is really a very important moment for all of the financial markets - after the decision is made, the picture for the many tools can change greatly.

 

August gold futures on Comex have risen by 0.10% to $ 1,177.80 per ounce. Silver - by 0.36% to $ 15,793 per ounce. Copper, which is often in opposition, has dropped by 0.07% to $ 2.611 per pound, making a breather after the rally earlier in the week caused by hopes for a stable growth of China's economy.

 

Gold futures (overnight) have decreased amid yesterday's dollar rally after the strong data on the primary housing market in the US and because of concerns about Greece. On Tuesday, the US currency has showed the strongest daily growth in almost a month, when it became known that in May, sales in the primary real estate market have increased by 2.2% to 546,000 (the highest level from February 2008).

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Market Pulse 25.06

 

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On Thursday particularly saturated with information is the American trading session, during which will be released some important data, including the unemployment claims statistics in the United States.

 

6:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - July (Germany)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The leading GfK consumer climate index characterizes the opinion of consumers with respect to income, the desire to spend and to the economy in the beginning of the reporting month.

 

8:00 *** SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks - June (Switzerland)

 

Strong impact on the market (CHF). Comments of Jordan on the situation in the economy are closely monitored by traders and investors, who arelooking for hints of further SNB action.

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)

12:30 ** Continuing Claims - June (USA)

12:30 ** Core PCE Price Index - June (USA)

12:30 ** Personal Spending - June (USA)

12:30 ** Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator - June (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Among above indicators the most important considers to be the unemployment claims indicator, in particular, initial claims, which are the important indicator of the labor market. It is expected that during the reporting week, the number of Americans who had applied for benefits for the first time increased. Growth in consumer spending could have a positive impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: US GDP Data was in Line with Expectations

 

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On Tuesday, market participants were mostly monitoring negotiations on Greece, occasionally distracted by the release of statistics. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the greatest attention was attracted by the final data on the US GDP for the first quarter. The data was in line with expectations - was revised from -0.7% to -0.2%.

 

Also in the US was published a number of less significant, but still accounted by the market indices. The GDP price index in the first quarter remained at the same level against the expected decline by 0.1%. Also better than expected was the growth of the personal consumption index – the figure increased in the first three months of this year by 2.1% vs. 1.9%.

 

With regard to the continuation of the "Greek saga," due to which the market is constantly in a fever, then according to the words of the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, international lenders have found some bugs in the latest reform plan, provided by Athens. Recall that the decision of Greece to be taken today. Or the country will face a default, or the resumption of the program of financial assistance from the EU, the ECB and the IMF.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Asian Session Was under the Sign of Greece Again

 

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During the Asian trading session on Thursday, stock markets in the region were declining, as well as the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts remind that today is a "day X" for Greece - the country has only a few hours to somehow avoid default.

 

Today the European Union leaders once again gather in Brussels to discuss the possibility of Athens salvation. If no agreement is concluded, Greece will not be able to make a payment on the IMF loan in the amount of 1.6 billion euros on 30 June. In such a case it will default, in consequence of which the country could leave the euro zone, which will bring the financial markets even more uncertainty.

 

Let's go back to the Thursday's Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was actually holding close to the previous session's close. Japan's Nikkei has fallen by 0.3% after earlier on Wednesday, it has risen to the highest level since 1996 on optimism about Greece's agreement with creditors. Support for major Japanese index has also information that the US President Barack Obama is actively working on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where Japan has an important economic role.

 

The dollar index DXY has fallen by 0.1%. The euro was traded higher against the US currency, as the hope of a favorable outcome of the situation with Greece still persists. It should be noted that on Wednesday was published the final data on changes in US GDP for the 1st quarter, which coincided with the forecast (-0.7% with revision to -0.2%). Now the market is too busy with Greece to pay much attention to this fact, but the positive GDP figures confirm expectations about the Fed rate hike in September.

 

On the commodities market, crude oil has not changed in price, remaining close to the level of $ 60.28. Brent crude oil has risen by 0.3% to $ 63.68. Spot gold has risen by 0.2% to $ 1,177.22 per ounce.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Is in Limbo because of Greece

 

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On Thursday, oil futures can not determine with the direction, moving up and down. Vista Brokers analysts say that traders are awaiting the outcome of Greece's talks with international creditors, which continues today in Brussels.

 

During the European trading session on the Nymex crude oil futures for delivery in August have fallen in price by 0.22% to $ 60.14 per barrel. Recall that the day before August futures have fallen by 1.21% to $ 60.27 after it became known that in the US last week, gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels and distillates - by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time oil reserves fell by 4.9 million barrels, far exceeding the forecast.

 

August futures for Brent today have fallen on ICE Futures Exchange in London by 0.04% to $ 63.47 a barrel, after falling 1.49% to $ 63.49 on Wednesday.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 06/26

 

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On Friday, a lot of important data will be published during the Asian trading session. In New Zealand, has already released the trade balance data. Analysts Vista Brokers recommend to pay attention to the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, as well as the speach of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

 

23:30 *** Consumer Price Index - May (Japan)

23:30 ** Household Spending - May (Japan)

23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - May (Japan)

23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - May (Japan)

23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index - June (Japan)

23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - June (Japan)

23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - June (Japan)

 

Strong impact on the market (JPY). According to forecasts growth of consumer prices in Japan in May was 0.4% after 0.6% the previous month. Growth of the consumer price index in Tokyo is expected at 0.5%.

 

14:00 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - June (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan allows to estimate the consumer confidence in the current and future state of the economy. It is a very important leading indicator of future spending. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

 

14:15 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - June (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the state of the UK economy may seriously affect the dynamics of the pound, because on their basis market participants will draw conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Calm before the Storm

 

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On Thursday, trading in EUR / USD was restrained amid expectations of the result of Greece's negotiations with international creditors. Vista Brokers analysts say that because of the situation, which may result with a default of the country in the near future, in financial markets therewas a tense silence - the calm before the storm. Periodically, markets were showing signs of excitement after another appeared news on the progress of negotiations.

 

Nevertheless, it is worth noting published during the day statistics, most of which, however, traders left unattended. During the European trading session in Germany was released leading index of consumer climate for July. The index fell to the level of 10.1 from the level of 10.2 in June, as expected.

 

Later in the United States was released the data on unemployment claims. For the reporting week the number of applications has increased by 3000, which coincided with the forecast. The number of counting claims has increased, while analysts had expected a decline. The core PCE price index also came in line with forecasts, and changes in the level of personal spending was slightly better than expected (0.9% vs. 0.7%). The level of personal incoms of Americans has risen in May by 0.5% against the expected 0.6%.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Market Is still Calm

 

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On Friday, oil contracts are traded in a narrow range as investors' views are still facing to the negotiations on Greece. Vista Brokers analysts note that quotes are about the same level for quite a long time, so that sooner or later this calm will surely turn into the storm. It is not clear just – where it will be directed.

 

Today during the Asian session August futures for Brent have risen by 19 cents to $ 63.39 per barrel, ending the previous session lower by 29 cents. WTI futures for August delivery have fallen by 6 cents today to $ 59.64 per barrel, while on Thursday the contract ended the day lower by 57 cents.

 

Experts believe that the assumption of the imminent change in the dynamics of the oil market can be drawn from the technical picture, which is now formed on the market. Since the beginning of the year Brent quotes are in a classic upward channel, borders of which the price will leave sooner or later and as a result it can be formed a strong movement, downward or upward.

 

From a fundamental point of view quotes must get a driver to leave the channel, for example, a decision on Iran's nuclear program. This question is recently a bit faded into the background – everybody is watching on Greece. But the question on Iran, in theory, should be definitively settled next week. Most likely, sanctions will be lifted from the country, and over the next month Tehran would increase exports, which can lead to a decrease in oil prices. Another scenario is also still possible - sanctions may remain in force, and it will support quots.

 

Do not forget about the correlation of oil with the US dollar, a position of which in the international currency market have an impact on all instruments, measured in dollars. Not far off is September, when many market players expect the first Fed rate hike, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar and, as a consequence, on the oil market.