Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 13

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.38

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0279, STOP LOSS 1.0475

 

Trade signals:

 

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0648, TAKE PROFIT 1.0457, STOP LOSS 1.0692

 

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4566, STOP LOSS 1.4745

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2350

 

EUR/JPY: SELL at 128.16, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 128.82

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.7154, STOP LOSS 0.7330

 

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9745, TAKE PROFIT 0.9882, STOP LOSS 0.9669

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570

 

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

 

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

__________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4572

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 14

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Demand on the US dollar keeps on rising on Monday with the DXY index approaching the 100 points figure. Poor China’s trade figures pulled the investors back from the commodity currencies into the safe USD – even despite the remaining uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike terms. On Tuesday the market will focus on the retail sales data and the producer price index (12:30 GMT). Upbeat forecasts create room for a broader USD strength: all the indicators promise to have snapped out of the red zone in March.

 

EUR/USD remains under pressure for a 6th consecutive day in a row. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Tuesday is light, while on Wednesday we’ll watch the ECB meeting and press-conference. No changes in policy are expected, but it is curious to know how Mr. Draghi appraises the current QE effect. Greek question will remain unanswered at least until April 24. Next bearish target for EUR/USD lies at 1.0460, while the upside will likely stay limited by the 1.0700 mark in the current fundamental environment.

 

GBP/USD hit a fresh 5-year low of 1.4565 on Monday, testing the waters below the March minimums (1.4630). The market will be watching the UK inflation data tomorrow: according to the consensus, CPI stayed flat in March, supporting the deflationary concerns. We review the cable’s prospects as bearish with the May 7 election risk being a kettle bell. Daily close below 1.4630 would pave the ground to 1.4220 in the coming weeks.

 

Commodity currencies are expected to stay under pressure ahead of the China GDP release on Wednesday. According to forecasts, growth slowed from 7.3% to 7.0% in Q1. AUD/USD is trading on a brink of a precipice, tickling the 0.7550 support on Monday. Get ready to sell Aussie on a daily close below this level.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4584

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 14

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.60

 

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4415, STOP LOSS 1.4745

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570

 

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560

 

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2575, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2490

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.0620/37

 

USD/CHF: BUY lower at 0.9710/00

 

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4590

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: what to expect from the ECB?

14 April 2015

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

On Wednesday don’t miss the European Central Bank’s meeting (11:45 GMT) & Mario Draghi’s press conference (12:30 GMT).

 

The ECB is expected to keep its policy unchanged: low rates + buying 60 billion euro of government bonds a month. The market’s attention will focus on what Mario Draghi will say.

 

As the recent economic data from the euro area showed improvement, Draghi is expected to observe that the quantitative easing program is already bringing positive results. At the same time, it’s clearly too early for him to sound too optimistic and give any comments about reducing the size of QE. Data released recently showed that the euro area’s Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in February after declining by 1.1% in January. The region’s manufacturing PMI also rose in March. This Friday don’t miss Europe’s final inflation figures for March.

 

Last week ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said that if inflation expectations rise faster than expected towards the ECB’s target of below-but-close-to 2%, the QE program could be stopped earlier than planned, which is September 2016. Draghi will probably try to smooth Mersch’s comments and press the point that tapering QE is for now out of question. This may add pressure on the euro.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4598

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 15

 

The strength of the US dollar was undermined by lower-than-expected retail sales and producer prices data. However, the weakness in American currency looks temporary and represents an opportunity for short-term longs.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating below 1.0600. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. As it’s too early for the regulator to give hints on QE tapering, the euro may find itself under pressure. We think of selling its attempts to recover targeting 1.0460 with stop loss at 1.0705.

 

GBP/USD is trading in the 1.4700 area after there was buying interest in the 1.4600 area. Inflation data came out weak, and this is a bearish factor for the pound. Taking into account uncertainty caused by approaching election, we’ll be selling British currency. On the downside the short-term target is at 1.4500. Main resistance is at 1.4850.

 

USD/JPY has so far been unable to settle above 120.50/80. However, support at 119.50 and 119.20/00 as well as at 118.70 looks pretty good as well. The pair slipped down this week as Shinzo Abe’s economic advised said that the exchange rate should be closer to 105 yen per dollar. All in all, we may see the test of support before the pair makes another go up.

 

AUD/USD is indecisive ahead of the release of China’s Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down from 7.3% to 7.0%. The target at 0.7500 is getting closer and closer. Resistance is at 0.7635 and 0.7738.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4599

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 15

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0788, STOP LOSS 1.0555

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.20

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2670

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9560, STOP LOSS 0.9802

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475 (revised)

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

 

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4613

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

ECB press-conference: key points

15 April 2015

 

-ECB left monetary policy unchanged at 0.05% in April;

-QE proceeding smoothly (60B euros per month) and proves to be effective; purchases intended to run until Sept. 2016;

-ECB stimulus needs to be fully implemented to work;

-Draghi sounds rather optimistic on the economy;

-Financial market conditions improved;

-Improved borrowing conditions lift borrowing activity of firms and households;

-Euro zone's exports are becoming more competitive due to the weak euro;

-Lower oil supports the domestic demand;

-Economic recovery to broaden and strengthen;

-Inflation is expected to pick up later in year;

-ECB won't expand QE in case if inflations unexpectedly dips. All the pullbacks will be seen as temporaly.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2593

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 16

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0401 (revised)

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT from 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9540, STOP LOSS 0.9745 (revised)

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2440 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95

 

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT from 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

 

Trade ideas:

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7663

 

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7483

 

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4629

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 17

 

By Kira Iukhenko

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k3XQ0cfs8M

 

US dollar index keeps on falling for a third day in a row. US economic data keeps on disappointing the market: on Thursday we’ve seen weak housing market figures. On Friday the market will focus on March CPI (April: +0.2%).

 

EUR/USD recovered to 1.0770, regaining almost 50% Fibonacci retracement from the early-April downtrend. Growth remains limited by the 1.1050 mark: Greek default fears keep on weighing the sentiment. Greece will have to pay more than 1 billion euros to IMF in early-May. We will see, is the euro strong enough to close above 1.0700 today. Watch the final euro zone’s CPI on Friday (no revision expected). Mario Draghi will speak to IMF on Saturday.

 

GBP/USD pushed to 1.4940, but stays below the major resistance at 1.5000. We’ll watch the UK labor data tomorrow. Jobless rate is expected to have lowered to 5.6%. Political risk for the pound will increase closer to May 7 election, so be ready to sell the cable higher.

 

AUD/USD jumped to 0.7800. Aside from the weak USD, Aussie was supported by upbeat Australia’s labor market data. Jobless rate declined to 6.1%, while employment increased above forecast. However, note that AUD/USD is forming trend continuation pattern these days. Watch the 0.7915/30 resistance area.

 

USD/CAD – “la vedette” of the past few days. The pair plummeted to 1.2250 as the BOC promised not to cut rates. Watch a bunch of Canadian data on Friday (13:30 GMT). Forecasts are mostly upbeat. Yesterday’s drop below the 1.2350mark was a strong bearish signal for the market. Next support – 1.2180 (bottom of the daily Cloud). USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. USD bears are much less aggressive here.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4631

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.3800

17 April 2015

 

-EUR/NZD reached sell targets 1.4120 and 1.4000

-Next sell target - 1.3800

 

EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions – reaching the support levels 1.4120 and 1.4000 – both of which were set as the sell targets in our recent forecast for this instrument. The price earlier corrected up to the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of April. The price reversed down from this resistance zone with the strong Japanese candlestick reversal pattern – Evening Star (highlighted below).

 

If EUR/NZD breaks the support level 1.4000, the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.3800. Strong resistance remains at 1.4200.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Apr-17%200939%20AM%20(1%20day)%20650.png

 

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4642

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

GBP/JPY: buy target - 180.00

17 April 2015

 

-GBP/JPY reversed from support level 176.00

-Next buy target - 180.00

 

GBP/JPY recently reversed sharply from the strong support level 176.00. This support level also previously reversed the price 3 times in January and February, as you can see below. The support zone near 176.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate upward impulse wave (1) from October. The upward reversal from 176.00 completed the previous medium-term ABC correction (2) from December.

 

GBP/JPY is likely to rise in the active intermediate impulse (3) toward the next buy target 180.00. Buy stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR below the support level 176.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Apr-17%200930%20AM%20(1%20day)%20650.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4640

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Is the US dollar rally over?

17 April 2015

 

By Kira Iukhenko

 

US dollar was hurt by a range of negative news on the past week. As a result, possibility of the Fed’s rate hike in June has once again come under question. According to the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, 65% of surveyed economists expect the first hike to come in September. Such projections limit the bullish USD prospects in the coming weeks.

 

The most important question today is whether the first quarter economic slowdown is seasonal or will become a trend. We need to see the April data to get the answer. On the new week the US economic calendar is rather light. On Monday watch the existing home sales, on Thursday - April manufacturing PMI and on Friday – core durable goods orders.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4644

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 20

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9585

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7695

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 129.45

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0385

 

Trade signals:

 

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.0740, TAKE PROFIT 1.0955, STOP LOSS 1.0680

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

 

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

 

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4669

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

CFTC: speculators cut USD longs

20 April 2015

 

By Kira Iukhenko

 

According to the most recent СFTC report, released on April 17, investors keep on lowering long USD positions. Cost of net USD longs fell by 0.6 bln to $39.7 bln. Dollar longs are contracting for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since March 17.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/April/20/cot-values-usd.png

 

The greenback is retracing lower versus all the major currencies. Even the EUR shorts corrected lower a little bit. Net speculative positions for CHF, NZD and MXN turned bullish. By the way, peso was one of the strongest drivers for the greenback last week.

 

GBP, JPY and CAD positions remained almost unchanged. The next report will likely reflect loonie’s upside in the second part of the past week.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/April/20/cot-standings1.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4674

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 21

 

US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday.

 

EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic.

 

GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected.

 

USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70.

 

AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4677

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

21 April 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0730 (EUR 338m), 1.0800/10 (922m), 1.0850 (462m);

 

GBP/USD: 1.4830-35 (GBP 350m);

 

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 504m), 118.50 (200m), 118.70 (200m), 121.00 (551m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.2200 (USD 295m), 1.2250 (657m), 1.2300 (350m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 261m), 0.7750 (290m), 0.7800/10 (280m), 0.7855/60 (280m);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7600 (NZD 441m), 0.7645 (389m), 0.7800 (813m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7225 (EUR 221m);

 

EUR/JPY: 129.00 (EUR 694m);

 

AUD/JPY: 92.85/90/93.00 (AUD 225m).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2612

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 21

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.65

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 128.85

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0331

 

Trade signals:

 

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

 

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4692

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 22

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_9Fcgvsbks

 

US Dollar

 

The US currency is struggling to recover following the last week’s selloff with the USD index reaching 98.70 on Tuesday. The US corporate profits are coming out slightly better than expected – in comparison to reduced forecasts. This factor could render some support to the US financial markets in the near term. You should also watch the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday.

 

EUR/USD

 

ZEW economic activity indices came out mixed on Tuesday with the German figures missing expectations (53.3 vs. 55.6 expected). On the contrary, euro area index surprised to the upside (64.8 vs. 63.7 expected). Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light tomorrow, while on Thursday the market will focus on a block of PMI indices. Greek problem will remain on the table this week, pressuring the euro. Volatility could jump with every new headline, so watch the news flow.

 

EUR/USD has already given up 50% of the last week’s gains, falling below 1.0700. Continued USD recovery could put more pressure on the pair. Targets lie at 1.0660 (recent low) and 1.0620 (trend support).

 

GBP/USD

 

Cable follows the market trend, descending from the last week’s peak of 1.5050 (55-day MA). We expect the pair to reach 1.4810/00 area in the coming sessions. On Wednesday, the BOE is scheduled to release its meeting minutes. However, we doubt that many Committee members support a rate hike in the current environment.

 

AUD/USD

 

Watch Australia CPI on Wednesday – consumer prices are expected to have added only 0.1% in Q1 compared to 0.2% in Q4. We expect AUD/USD to stay under pressure: low inflation supports policy-easing expectations on a May 5 meeting. Technical support is seen in the 0.7700/0.7680 area these days. A break lower would open the way back to 0.7600 and 0.7550.

 

USD/JPY

 

The pair was in demand on Tuesday, testing the 55-day MA (119.60) to the upside. Watch the 120.50 resistance line that connects the March and April highs. Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance – deficit is expected to tighten.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4711

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

22 April 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 375m), 1.0700 (672m), 1.0740 (288m), 1.0800 (1bln);

 

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 525m), 121.00 (1bln);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 295m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.2285 (USD 200m), 1.2375/80 (700m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.7655/60 (AUD 225m), 0.7800 (687m);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 1bln), 0.7800 (686m).

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2615

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 22

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 118.95

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0331

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.15, TAKE PROFIT 129.75, STOP LOSS 127.35

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.7093, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 178.35, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 177.45

 

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4719

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Societe Generale: forecasts for majors

22 April 2015

 

Here are the fresh forecasts by the largest French bank:

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/April/20/socgen1.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4725

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 23

 

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0775/1.0800 area created by the line connecting December and April highs. This together with concerns about Greece lets us think that the euro remains a sell. Support is at 1.0682, 1.0660 and 1.0640. Don’t miss the release of the euro area’s key manufacturing & services PMIs at 07:00-08:00 GMT. Slightly better readings are expected.

 

GBP/USD rose above last week’s highs testing 1.5080 to meet resistance provided by the daily Ichimoku and 55-day MA. Support is at 1.4860. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday were regarded as a bit hawkish. Technically the pound looks good in the short term and may rise up to 1.5160. Be cautious with longs though: sterling is going to have hard times ahead of approaching elections. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

 

USD/JPY recovered this week from support at 118.50, but met resistance in the 119.75 area (55-day MA) ahead of 120.35/50. Traders start to speculate about the Bank of Japan’s meeting on April 30, and the pair may retest 120.00. On Thursday watch US new home sales and unemployment claims.

 

AUD/USD is above 20-day MA (0.7680), but below the recent highs (0.7840). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation figures reduced expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut in May. On Thursday China will release HSBC flash manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

 

USD/CHF jumped as the SNB announced that pension funds can be subject to negative rates. The pair’s consolidating in the descending triangle, so one may set buy stop and sell stop pending orders near its borders.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4737

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 23

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.073, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 119.29 (revised)

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4930 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9862 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9559 (revised)

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.42

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0508, STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

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*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4743

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for Apr. 24

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x50T3MdjR5A

 

The greenback came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the bearish news flow from the US disappointed the market. Unemployment claims came out above the forecast (295K), while new home sales disappointed to the downside (only 481K). What is important, April manufacturing PMI disappointed to the downside (54.2), raising fears that slow growth is extending into Q2. We’ll watch US durable goods orders on Friday (forecast – upbeat).

 

EUR/USD trade remains volatile with the pair recovering to 1.0800 in the US opening despite the weaker-than-expected euro block’s PMIs. The pair is still unable to set a clear move. Next resistance lies at 1.0840 and 1.0890/0900, while strong support is seen at 1.0660. Watch April German Ifo business climate index on Friday. Euro group meeting also starts tomorrow – watch the headlines about Greece.

 

GBP/USD holds below the yesterday’s 1.5080 resistance as the March retail sales disappointed to the downside on Thursday (-0.5% vs. +0.4% expected). Cable is struggling to overcome the 55-day MA these days. We see the road open for a test of 1.5150 and 1.5200 in the coming sessions.

 

AUD/USD remains supported, but holds slightly below the 0.7800 mark. Resistance lies at 0.7820 and 0.7915/30. USD/JPY failed to overcome the 120.50 resistance on the wave of broad USD selloff. Support is seen at 119.00 and 118.50.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/April/20/cal%20eng.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4753

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 24

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0910 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4955 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.85 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

Trade ideas:

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7755, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7675

 

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

 

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4757