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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402EURUSDH1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD reached a new three-week low this morning.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1019 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0956, which is the 1st pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0915, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1019, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has reached a seven-month low this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4061 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.3860, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.3800, which is the next key level, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4061, being the Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is consolidating under the recently breached short-term uptrend channel.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 112.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 111.02, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.60, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.83, which is the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is consolidating around the daily pivot point in indecision.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9935 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 0.9976, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance and also coinciding with the previous high. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0041, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9871, being the 1st pivot support of today.

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is consolidating under the recently breached daily uptrend channel.

 

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3768 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.3895, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3641, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has once again breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7219 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7120, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7105, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7219, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is retesting to return within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1220.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1250.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1254.31, could develop next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1212.21, which is the metal’s 1st pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2402OILUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is plummeting, as one more meeting between oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 32.36 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 30.90, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.09, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.17, being 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

The British Prime Minister David Cameron is prepared to engage the Bank of England in order to keep Britain in the European Union. According to his speech on Tuesday, the policymakers “will make sure that the Treasury and the Bank of England and other authoritative organisations set out the facts, set out the figures so people can make a judgment.”

 

In the meantime, the pound continues to weaken against its major counterparts, with the GBPUSD hitting a new seven-year low yesterday afternoon and trading below 1.3900 marks.

 

Mark Carney, the BoE Governor, is ready to loosen the monetary policy, saying that the Bank is open to the interest rate cuts and extending a bond-buying programme if required. Even though the slowdown in the global economy has not yet significantly affected the UK growth. He also emphasized his view that the local interest rates will be unlikely to be raised from the record low of 0.5% over the next three years.

 

Second Estimate UK GDP data release will open this morning at 9:30 am London time. The change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services within the country is expected to remain unaltered from the last quarter at 0.5%. Provided the release will not show significant deviations from the forecast, this event is unlikely to significantly affect the British Pound.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1110

 

Target 2: 1.0910

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

 

Daily control level: 1.1050

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3022022016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4180

 

Target 2: 1.3765

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0159

 

Daily control level: 1.4405

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 113.65

 

Target 2: 110.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.50

 

Daily control level: 113.40

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9980

 

Target 2: 0.9790

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

 

Daily control level: 0.9950

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3800

 

Target 2: 1.3675

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

 

Daily control level: 1.3660

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7280

 

Target 2: 0.7110

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

 

Daily control level: 0.7065

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1254.00

 

Target 2: 1200.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.77

 

Daily control level: 1201.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 34.00

 

Target 2: 30.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.98

 

Daily control level: 33.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.02.2016

 

 

 

 

The main event for today will be a G20 summit held in Shanghai, where leaders will gather to discuss means to support the sluggish global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it is imperative to speed up existing structural reforms and use more effectively fiscal and monetary measures in order to attain that.

 

“Global growth prospects remain clouded in the near term, with emerging-market economies losing steam, world trade slowing down and the recovery in advanced economies being dragged down by persistently weak investment,” the OECD said, as it urged the leaders to deal with these conditions.

 

The OECD’s mission is to monitor reforms within G20 countries in order to achieve an earlier set of goals of increasing global economic growth by 2% until 2018. In order to do that, more than 800 reforms were introduced since 2014, however, their implementation still remains delayed.

 

Concerns regarding developments in China is also expected to take a priority in G20 discussions. The world’s second-largest economy has reported a growth of 6.9% for 2015, which was the country’s weakest in last 25 years.

 

On the over hand, Germany has shown a strong opposition to proposed loosening of the current fiscal stimulus programme. Wolfgang Schaeuble, at a meeting with his counterparts before the summit, warned that space for further monetary easing is exhausted and using additional debt to boost a growth will lead to “zombifying” of economies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1110

 

Target 2: 1.0920

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

 

Daily control level: 1.0980

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3025022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4110

 

Target 2: 1.3805

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

 

Daily control level: 1.4405

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.40

 

Target 2: 110.60

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

 

Daily control level: 113.40

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3025022016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9950

 

Target 2: 0.9810

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

 

Daily control level: 0.9950

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3675

 

Target 2: 1.3375

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

 

Daily control level: 1.3735

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7320

 

Target 2: 0.7145

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 0.7145

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1257.00

 

Target 2: 1207.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 25.19

 

Daily control level: 1220.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3025022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 35.00

 

Target 2: 31.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.99

 

Daily control level: 31.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.02.2016

 

 

 

 

Today’s trading session is promising to be quiet in regards of economic releases. Nevertheless, investors are awaiting some important events this week.

 

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will deliver the employment set of data which will highlight the current labour market conditions. This time, the market consensus expects the number of employed people during the previous month to increase to 195.000 from 151.000 of January.

 

Average Hourly Earnings data though is predicted to slide lower to 0.2% this month in comparison to 0.5% of the last release. Lastly, the Unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unaltered at 4.9%.

 

Tomorrow’s session is promising to be quite busy with the economic forecasts. Firstly, the data on Chinese Manufacturing Sector will be released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The official PMI data is not expected to change and remain at 48.4 level, whereas Caixin survey, later on, is awaiting a slight drop to 48.2 from 48.4 of a month ago.

 

Following that, the Reserve Bank of Australia data will capture the attention of traders. The majority of economists do not expect any changes in the monetary policy of the institution. However, the rate statement will likely to give some hints regarding the future economic outlook together with the commentary regarding the current economic conditions.

 

This Tuesday’s afternoon, the major data event is the US ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index release. The data is expected to improve to 48.6 this time, nevertheless remaining in the contraction zone below 50.0 level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1004

 

Target 2: 1.0815

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 1.1070

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4010

 

Target 2: 1.3700

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

 

Daily control level: 1.4050

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 115.35

 

Target 2: 112.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

 

Daily control level: 111.00

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3029022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0060

 

Target 2: 0.9885

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 1.0100

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3655

 

Target 2: 1.3370

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0143

 

Daily control level: 1.3735

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3029022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7210

 

Target 2: 0.7030

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

 

Daily control level: 0.7145

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1248.00

 

Target 2: 1195.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.60

 

Daily control level: 1244.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3029022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 34.65

 

Target 2: 30.75

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

 

Daily control level: 30.75

 

 

 

 

 

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ACFX SPECIAL REPORT – TURKEY

 

 

 

 

The Turkish economy has experienced a minor miracle in recent years. This country’s economy has risen like a phoenix from the debt crisis of the late 1990’s. The transformation has turned Turkey into a regional industrial powerhouse.

 

Economic growth and prosperity have brought Turkey an enhanced status on the international stage. The benefits to Turkey such as cementing itself as a member of the exclusive club of G-20 nations and a greater in international negotiations.

 

A strong and growing economy brings with it a greater confidence. The Turkish Government has been able to flex its muscles as it looks to protect its economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East region.

 

Unfortunately, this brought the Turkish Government into direct political conflict with the goals of the Russian Federation.The cost to the Turkish economy has been damaging as sanctions imposed by the administration of Vladimir Putin’s Russian Government is expected to be in the region of US Dollar 9 billion per year.

 

The sanctions that have been imposed by the Russian Government could not have come at a more unfortunate time. Emerging nations such as Turkey have benefited from an extended period of low US interest rates.

 

The US Federal Reserve has committed itself to increasing interest rates during 2016. The prospect of higher yields received from investments in US debt has resulted in capital flowing away from Emerging Market nations such as Turkey.

 

The uncertainty that has shown itself in the forex markets as investors have reduced their exposure to the Lira and bought the US Dollar. However, the weakness in the Lira can be traced back to July 2011. From a monthly aspect, USDTRL at this period was trending in an uptrend with the price-action moving above the support of the cloud and the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY CHART

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYMonthly.png

 

The weekly time frame demonstrates the importance of using a top-down approach when one tries to analyze the markets. Although an Ichimoku Kinko-Hyo strategy should allow a trader to focus on the one-time frame, it can be seen that breaches beneath the cloud have offered buying and not shorting opportunities. In fact, it can be seen that corrective moves down to both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have opportunities to buy the US Dollar and sell the Lira. Although I would like to stress that these trends are intact until they end.

 

 

WEEKLY CHART

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYWeekly.png

 

The daily time frame has allowed investors to jump on the trading opportunity in the direction of the higher monthly and weekly time window. At the moment, however, USDTRL is currently trading within the cloud congestion area, and the Chikou Span is not giving any clear directional signals. Traders of the USDTRL would now be waiting for a move above the cloud, and the 3.0050 level as this could be sufficient for the Chikou Span could confirm resumption of an upside breakout.

 

 

DAILY CHART

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDTRYDaily.png

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.03.2016

 

 

 

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the interest rate unchanged at 2% level, as expected. However, markets price in the probability that at least two cuts within 2016 will take place.

 

The RBA in its policy statement this morning reiterated that persistently low levels of inflation could be a base for the consequent monetary policy easing. The inflation is expected to be low for the next two years, with very low levels of oil price adding to that pressure.

 

The Australian job market also remains a concern to the policymakers as the global economic slowdown is affecting the state of the country’s economy. Tomorrow’s quarterly GDP release is expected to add a further light to the country’s outlook.

 

Australian Dollar rallied higher on the news, recovering from a week low with AUDUSD reaching 0.7162 this morning.

 

The rest of this trading day will concentrate on Purchasing Managers indices released in UK and US, the leading indicator of the economic health in these countries.

 

The British Manufacturing PMI figure is released by Markit at 9:30 am London time. Investors awaiting a decline to 52.3 this time, down from 52.9 figure announced in February.

 

The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 3:00 pm this afternoon, with the US data still expected to remain in contraction zone at 48.2, which is the case since last November. A volatility of the USD pairs should be expected during the time of release.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3001032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0960

 

Target 2: 1.0780

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

 

Daily control level: 1.0965

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3001032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4070

 

Target 2: 1.3760

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

 

Daily control level: 1.3830

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3001032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.00

 

Target 2: 111.35

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.33

 

Daily control level: 114.10

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3001032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0065

 

Target 2: 0.9895

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

 

Daily control level: 0.9945

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3001032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3675

 

Target 2: 1.3400

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138

 

Daily control level: 1.3735

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3001032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7230

 

Target 2: 0.7050

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 0.7170

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3001032016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1265.00

 

Target 2: 1211.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 27.18

 

Daily control level: 1210.00

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3001032016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 35.80

 

Target 2: 32.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

 

Daily control level: 32.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2016

 

 

 

Moody’s Investors Service has lowered the China’s government credit rating outlook from stable to negative, according to the agency’s publication this morning. The long-term primary unsecured debt rating and issuer’s other ratings are affirmed at ‘Aa3′.

 

The main factors to proceed with the revision of the forecast were the deterioration in the country’s financial performance and weak prospects for their further improvement, reflected in the increasing government debt and rising contingent liabilities.

 

The enduring fall in the country’s reserves due to the outflow of capital could likely deteriorate the country’s external strength. Even though the Chinese reserves still remain of a massive size of US$ 3.2 billion, they have decreased by US$ 762 billion since the peak in June 2014.

 

Investor’s uncertainty regarding the authorities’ ability to carry out reforms to address imbalances in the economy, according to the agency, also remains of concern.

 

Besides, the current fiscal and monetary policy provisions to reach 6.5% growth target are feared to slow the implementation of the necessary reforms, undermining the strength of the Chinese institutions, hence weakening their credibility.

 

Nonetheless, the current rating remained unchanged as a large size of the country contributes to its credit potency. ”Although GDP growth is slowing, it will remain markedly higher than most of China’s rating peers. The size of the buffers available to face current fiscal and capital outflow challenges allows for a gradual implementation of reform and therefore supports an affirmation of the rating at Aa3”, the agency reports.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0950

 

Target 2: 1.0780

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 1.0860

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4100

 

Target 2: 1.3800

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

 

Daily control level: 1.3895

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 115.25

 

Target 2: 112.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.28

 

Daily control level: 112.00

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0055

 

Target 2: 0.9885

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

 

Daily control level: 0.9945

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3545

 

Target 2: 1.3270

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139

 

Daily control level: 1.3595

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7255

 

Target 2: 0.7090

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

 

Daily control level: 0.7115

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1255.00

 

Target 2: 1207.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

 

Daily control level: 1210.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3002032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 35.75

 

Target 2: 31.95

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.92

 

Daily control level: 33.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.03.2016

 

 

 

 

There is a view spreading among traders that the fall in oil prices, which started in the middle of 2014, might have bottomed out as production is slowing down and the demand remains strong.

 

This morning oil prices continued to show growth as investors are confident that the near future demand for raw materials will increase. The Brent oil reached US$ 37.47 high, and WTI surged to US$ 35.92 last afternoon according to the trading data.

 

Nevertheless, most analysts do not expect a sharp rise in the oil prices anytime soon, as the supply continues to exceed the demand, and the global stocks of the raw material are increasing with the unsold commodity.

 

According to estimates, around 1 to 2 million barrels above average demand are currently produced on the daily basis. In addition, some experts believe that the recent attempt of the non-OPEC oil producing countries to freeze the supply will not be able to curb the oversupply in the market.

 

Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration announced a 10.4 million barrels increase held in inventory by commercial firms during last week. This is the highest level since April 2015.

 

The news though did not affect the highly dependent Canadian dollar, which continued to strengthen last afternoon. Australian Dollar has also surged higher and was trading at 0.7323 against the US Dollar this morning, being the pair’s this year high. The US Dollar Index stayed largely unaffected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3003032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0950

 

Target 2: 1.0780

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

 

Daily control level: 1.0896

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3003032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4230

 

Target 2: 1.3925

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

 

Daily control level: 1.3895

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3003032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 114.70

 

Target 2: 113.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

 

Daily control level: 113.15

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3003032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0045

 

Target 2: 0.9880

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

 

Daily control level: 0.9945

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3003032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3545

 

Target 2: 1.3275

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

 

Daily control level: 1.3500

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3003032016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7375

 

Target 2: 0.7205

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

 

Daily control level: 0.7115

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3003032016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1263.00

 

Target 2: 1215.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.79

 

Daily control level: 1224.45

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3003032016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 36.55

 

Target 2: 32.80

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.87

 

Daily control level: 33.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2016

 

 

 

This afternoon at 1:30 pm London time the Bureau of Labour and Statistics publishes its latest monthly Non-Farm Employment Change data.

 

This publication is part of the Jobs Report that also includes the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate releases.

 

The NFP report gives investors’ information on the number of new employees hired during the prior month.

 

Market participants monitor all the components that make up the Jobs Report. However, the NFP does tend to have an overbearing impact on the market and can cause large amounts of volatility in all liquid asset classes and the forex market.

 

The NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports are published very early after the end of the prior month. Therefore, they can give traders and investors an early warning of economic changes. As such, the Jobs Report is a valuable tool for helping one to decide if new risk should be taken or if current exposure management should be modified.

 

Jobs related data such as the NFP is important because it is a barometer of the conditions of the United States economy and is also a leading indicator of possible changes to consumer spending.

 

The market consensus expects to see 195.000 new vacancies to have been filled in February. Today’s forecast if realized would be an increase from the previous 151.000 places that were reported in the prior months release.

 

The overall trend of the data continues to be positive, however, it is important to consider the NFP data together with the effect on wage levels, released at the same time. The Average Hourly Earnings data, this time, is expected to drop to 0.2%, down from 0.5% of the previous release.

 

The Federal Reserve would welcome a rise in the level of wages as this will mean that the low-interest rate policy could be relaxed further over the coming year.

 

Should the NFP actual announcement exceed, the market estimates the US Dollar price would usually strengthen against its major pairs.

 

High volatility around the time of the Jobs Data releases should be anticipated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1035

 

Target 2: 1.0850

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

 

Daily control level: 1.0820

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4325

 

Target 2: 1.4015

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

 

Daily control level: 1.4030

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 114.80

 

Target 2: 112.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.22

 

Daily control level: 113.15

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0000

 

Target 2: 0.9840

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

 

Daily control level: 0.9980

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3540

 

Target 2: 1.3270

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

 

Daily control level: 1.3475

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7440

 

Target 2: 0.7265

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

 

Daily control level: 0.7115

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3004032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1287.00

 

Target 2: 1240.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.64

 

Daily control level: 1224.45

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3004032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 36.50

 

Target 2: 32.80

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86

 

Daily control level: 33.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil prices extended the price gains into the Monday opening session on investors’ optimism that the demand for the commodity will grow, whereas the supply is expected to be reduced.

 

The drop in the number of operating oil rigs has boosted hopes of the market participants that the long-lasting decline in the oil price will finally rebound. The report, released by Baker Hughes on Friday indicated the eleventh week for the oil rigs decline.

 

Moreover, the possibility that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will finally agree to a production freeze at their next meeting on March 20 is also strengthening investors’ confidence. At the moment, four large commodity’s producers among which are Saudi Arabia and Russia, intend to limit the oil supply at the January levels.

 

Thus, Brent reached US$ 39.70 high at this week’s opening session with the commodity retesting the top of the downtrend channel which was formed last May. WTI also continue to strengthen as it was trading close to US$ 38.00 level this morning.

 

Positive news from China seems to add the support to the world’s most traded commodity also as Chinese government voiced its plans to emphasize the growth over the economy restructuring. The target for 2016 was firmly set between 6.5% and 7% when the National People’s Congress was held this weekend.

 

A number of measures are set to be taken, including tax cuts which will allow the local companies more fund to invest. A broad social financing measures will also be taken to support the slowing down world’s second largest economy.

 

The US dollar was seen to weaken for the last three trading days, with the index reaching 97.01 low last Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1075

 

Target 2: 1.0900

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

 

Daily control level: 1.0900

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4365

 

Target 2: 1.4070

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

 

Daily control level: 1.4100

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 115.00

 

Target 2: 112.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19

 

Daily control level: 113.10

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0005

 

Target 2: 0.9840

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

 

Daily control level: 0.9990

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3460

 

Target 2: 1.3200

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

 

Daily control level: 1.3475

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7485

 

Target 2: 0.7310

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 0.7115

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1283.50

 

Target 2: 1235.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.13

 

Daily control level: 1248.70

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3007032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 38.00

 

Target 2: 34.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

 

Daily control level: 34.30

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

In overnight news, continuing concerns over the slowdown of the Chinese economy was highlighted by extremely disappointing international trade numbers. According to the Customs General Administration of China, international traded dropped to 210 billion in February. This statistic compares unfavourably to January data of 406 billion.

 

It was expected that the month on month trade balance number would decline to a more modest 339 billion. This morning’s number is the lowest published reading since March of 2015 and is also the steepest decline since May 2009.

 

Reading deeper into this data from China, an alteration of the date of the Lunar Year had a dramatic effect on the export numbers. This view is backed up by an analyst report from Capital Economics of Singapore which said. “In 2015, the holiday fell unusually late which meant that more of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders and less of the post-holiday disruptions took place in February, causing exports to jump 48.9 percent year-on-year.”

 

Later this morning, the United Kingdom Brexit debate will come strongly into focus when the Bank of England Governor, Mr Mark Carney will give testimony to a Parliamentary Committee in London on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union.

 

The Brexit debate is heating up between the “in” and “out” campaigners within the ruling Conservative Party. Therefore, it will be fascinating to see how Mr Carney and his deputy Mr Cunliffe manage to stick to an impartial line when it is an open secret that the Bank of England favours keeping the UK inside the European Union.

 

For most of today in Brussels, European Finance Ministers will meet. This meeting will take place just two days before a crucial European Central Bank meeting. The ECB President has on many occasions promoted a dovish bias on interest rates by saying that the central bank will do what it takes to bring inflation back to target. However, to date, Mr Draghi has failed to back up this rhetoric. The ECOFIN meeting could give valuable insight into the mood of European Finance Ministers and their appetite to move further down a path of stimulus.

 

This afternoon, we have news from Canada with announcements from the construction sector with both Housing Starts and Building Permits publications due to be released. The news from Canada has added significance as this data release will come just one day before a crucial Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

Tuesday is rounded off with data from Australia when the WestPac Banking Corporation will publish its Consumer Sentiment report. This data is followed by more news from the banking and property sector when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to announce Home Loans data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1100

 

Target 2: 1.0925

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 1.0935

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4410

 

Target 2: 1.4100

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

 

Daily control level: 1.4125

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3008032016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.60

 

Target 2: 112.20

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

 

Daily control level: 114.30

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0025

 

Target 2: 0.9855

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

 

Daily control level: 1.0010

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3410

 

Target 2: 1.3155

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

 

Daily control level: 1.3380

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7555

 

Target 2: 0.7380

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 0.7385

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3008032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1289.00

 

Target 2: 1242.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.83

 

Daily control level: 1255.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3008032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 39.70

 

Target 2: 36.20

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

 

Daily control level: 36.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific Region on Monday showed a positive trend before this week’s meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This supported investors’ optimism caused by the results of the ECB meeting last week, when the bank took a more aggressive approach to support the troubled euro zone economy than initially expected.

 

This action led markets to hope for a speedy recovery of the euro area and also intensified an increase the demand for risky assets.

 

Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meetings of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve’s held on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current levels, which are -0.1% and 0.25-0.5% respectively.

 

For now, the US Dollar remains a centre of attention of market participants this week. Even though the probability of the interest rate hike is next to a zero, traders should not yet discard the possibility for a surprise.

 

In addition to the standard monetary policy announcement by FOMC, this quarterly event will also present updated economic forecasts and the press conference by the Fed Chairwoman, who is expected to bring more light in the future direction of the US monetary policy.

 

Last week the US dollar was significantly weakened by the ECB’s policy decision, with the dollar index declining below 96.00 mark. Looking its daily chart, the world’s major reserve currency continues to trade a downtrend scenario, hinting that the uptrend established in the middle of 2014 might be coming to an end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403EURUSDH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1256

 

Target 2: 1.1030

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

 

Daily control level: 1.0820

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403GBPUSDH1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4507

 

Target 2: 1.4241

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

 

Daily control level: 1.4130

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDJPYH1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 115.11

 

Target 2: 112.67

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.216

 

Daily control level: 112.55

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDCHFH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9926

 

Target 2: 0.9734

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

 

Daily control level: 1.0090

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403USDCADH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3367

 

Target 2: 1.3083

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

 

Daily control level: 1.3225

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403AUDUSDH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7642

 

Target 2: 0.7452

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 0.7400

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403GOLDH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1274.70

 

Target 2: 1225.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.65

 

Daily control level: 1237.00

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/1403OILUSDH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 41.33

 

Target 2: 38.07

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.629

 

Daily control level: 37.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged at the meeting this morning. The policymakers, however, warned that current economic conditions remain of concern, hence, will likely become an impediment to reaching the previously set inflation objectives.

 

“The BOJ is trying hard to reduce the impact that negative rates are having on the financial sector because banks have been very critical of this policy,” commented Hiroaki Muto, an economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center to the Reuters this morning.

 

At the moment, he interest rate was left at -0.1%, with the current quantitative easing program remaining at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen money base expansion and ETF buying program intact.

 

It was also decided to exempt US$90 billion in short-term funds from the negative rates, as concerns from the investment industry suggested that funds could end up in bank deposits.

 

However, perhaps the biggest surprise to investors was the alteration of the statement language, suggesting that a further progression of the interest rates into negative territory might be coming to an end.

 

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 113.56 this morning after the news were announced. The Nikkei index, on the other hand, weakened, as it was trading almost 1% lower on a day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1210

 

Target 2: 1.0990

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

 

Daily control level: 1.1070

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4430

 

Target 2: 1.4170

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

 

Daily control level: 1.4250

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3015032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 115.00

 

Target 2: 112.60

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

 

Daily control level: 114.20

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9965

 

Target 2: 0.9780

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

 

Daily control level: 1.0090

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3400

 

Target 2: 1.3130

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

 

Daily control level: 1.3405

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7600

 

Target 2: 0.7400

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

 

Daily control level: 0.7420

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3015032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1261.00

 

Target 2: 1211.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.89

 

Daily control level: 1262.00

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3015032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 39.00

 

Target 2: 35.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.68

 

Daily control level: 39.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee is due to give it latest interest rate decision. Back on December 15, the FOMC decided to commence a policy change which forecasts interest rates being increased a further four times during 2016. Such a policy shift would lead to the Fed Funds rate increasing to 1.4% by the end of the year.

 

However, just a few hours before the March meeting and with the state of the domestic economy not convincing many market participants that we are ready for a rate increase, anytime soon it would appear that a rate rise later today is not on the agenda. In light of this, it would seem that time is running out for Chairwoman Yellen to push through and complete a four hike dot plot scenario.

 

According to latest data, the market has priced in a small probability that interest rates will be increased today by the FOMC from the current 0.50% target. Interestingly, however according to market pricing, the likelihood of a rate hike happening today has grown.

 

The change in market sentiment and how it views the possible course that the FOMC could take today and during the rest of 2016 is being influenced by a continuation of the strong jobs numbers and what is seen as a more positive economic outlook.

 

Yellen and her fellow committee members although dependent on data are mindful that their policy decisions should not be viewed to be overly influenced by the most recent financial news release.

 

Trying to keep the correct balance between market expectations and affecting the market through the application of forward guidance is a difficult task. Notwithstanding this, and due to current developments and the overall positive momentum in the data, it would not be unexpected to see a more hawkish tone being set by the FOMC later today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3016032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1215

 

Target 2: 1.0990

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

 

Daily control level: 1.1070

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3016032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4285

 

Target 2: 1.4015

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

 

Daily control level: 1.4450

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3016032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.35

 

Target 2: 112.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

 

Daily control level: 114.20

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3016032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9960

 

Target 2: 0.9780

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

 

Daily control level: 1.0090

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM301603216.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3480

 

Target 2: 1.3220

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

 

Daily control level: 1.3405

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3016032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7550

 

Target 2: 0.7365

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 0.7420

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3016032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1256.00

 

Target 2: 1209.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

 

Daily control level: 1262.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3016032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 38.25

 

Target 2: 35.15

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58

 

Daily control level: 39.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US dollar tumbled on the FOMC statement last afternoon when policymakers decided to revise down monetary policy targets, set according to the much-discussed dot plot.

 

Even though the benchmark interest rate remained unchanged, the promised earlier four rate hikes this year were reduced to two, as the country’s economic growth and inflation expectations were also downgraded.

 

According to the statement, a risk from the global economic and financial developments persists, with the local jobs market needing some improvements. The US stock market had an edgy start of the year and despite some improvements, still trading downtrend scenario. That could suggest tightening the monetary policy will be too early for now.

 

Even though Federal Reserve remains flexible with their action and ready to respond whenever it is necessary, it is nevertheless not an option to consider the negative interest rates yet.

 

The US Dollar Index declined to a one-month low, reaching 95.55 level last afternoon. Oil prices resumed the upward trend, with the WTI trading above 40.80 levels this morning.

 

Gold reacted positively too, as investors are looking for a safe harbour for their investments. The precious metal returning to trade within recently breached uptrend channel when it reached 1263.75 on the news.

 

Today, traders’ attention will switch to the interest rate decision and the monetary policy summary by the Bank of England at 12:00 pm London’s time. The rate is expected to stay without changes at 0.5%. Volatility in GBP pairs could be observed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1325

 

Target 2: 1.1100

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

 

Daily control level: 1.1050

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM301732016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4385

 

Target 2: 1.4115

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139

 

Daily control level: 1.4450

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 113.90

 

Target 2: 111.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.24

 

Daily control level: 113.85

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9870

 

Target 2: 0.9685

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

 

Daily control level: 0.9920

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3265

 

Target 2: 1.2965

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

 

Daily control level: 1.3405

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7660

 

Target 2: 0.7460

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

 

Daily control level: 0.7420

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1285.00

 

Target 2: 1236.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.51

 

Daily control level: 1225.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3017032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 40.15

 

Target 2: 37.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

 

Daily control level: 36.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US dollar declined on the overly dovish FOMC statement this Wednesday. The move lower resulted in a break of the ten-month uptrend channel and could be an important sign for the future direction of the world’s major reserve currency. The decline followed the last week’s plunge as a reaction to the European Central Bank’s policy and is a strongest decline of the currency within the last two years.

 

Despite concerns, analysts believe that it is still unlikely that the US dollar will simply collapse against its major counterparts. This is due to the relative strength of the US economy in comparison with conditions in the rest of the world.

 

In the wake of the cautious Fed stance gold has reclaimed the upside momentum with the metal currently trading above the 1260.00 mark. Gold has always been considered investor’s safe harbour, it is logical that we are now seeing the increased demand for the metal among such a vast uncertainty in the world’s markets.

 

Surprisingly, the oil has also joined the best market performers’ league, as it reached a new 2016 high this morning. Looking at the commodity’s 4-hour chart, it might be still too early to get excited about the long-term change of direction. Taking the WTI as an example, the commodity is still trading below the recently breached uptrend channel and needs to return to its limits so more bullish bets could be made.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1430

 

Target 2: 1.1195

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

 

Daily control level: 1.1050

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4625

 

Target 2: 1.4325

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

 

Daily control level: 1.4215

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 112.70

 

Target 2: 110.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

 

Daily control level: 113.85

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9765

 

Target 2: 0.9570

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

 

Daily control level: 0.9920

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3135

 

Target 2: 1.2830

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

 

Daily control level: 1.3405

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7740

 

Target 2: 0.7515

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

 

Daily control level: 0.7420

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3018032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1281.00

 

Target 2: 1233.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.01

 

Daily control level: 1225.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3018032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 41.80

 

Target 2: 38.60

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

 

Daily control level: 38.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Gold market demonstrated a downward momentum as investors engaged in profit-taking. The metal has been appreciating in value since the middle of December 2015, but this month it showed signs of stagnation, hinting that a move further up might come to a halt. This morning the metal was trading at US$ 1240.49, versus US$ 1270.76 high of last week.

 

By looking at the technical indicators, we can see that the Gold price has breached the 4 hours uptrend channel last Monday. Also, it failed an attempt to return to the channel limits by the end of the week, which could be another sign that the metal might retrace.

 

The edging down in the precious metal’s price also coincided with a recovery in the US dollar value by the close of the Friday’s trading session, as both products historically have a negative correlation.

 

The recent events have shown that the US and European Central Banks are inclined towards the keeping the monetary easing measures for longer as the corresponding economies still have a hard time to recover. Nevertheless, some analysts believe, there are considerably fewer policy tools left to implement. Hence, this could support the new downturn bias in gold.

 

Oil prices also retraced as well since last Friday. The commodity reached a new high of this year and WTI surpassing a US$ 42.50 mark. The next critical level and support of US$ 40.00 are also a downside target, which the oil could retest before deciding on the move further.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1385

 

Target 2: 1.1150

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

 

Daily control level: 1.1250

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4610

 

Target 2: 1.4310

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0151

 

Daily control level: 1.4400

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 112.70

 

Target 2: 110.35

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

 

Daily control level: 113.85

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9790

 

Target 2: 0.9600

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

 

Daily control level: 0.9920

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3175

 

Target 2: 1.2870

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

 

Daily control level: 1.2915

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7695

 

Target 2: 0.7490

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

 

Daily control level: 0.7420

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1278.00

 

Target 2: 1230.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.2

 

Daily control level: 1225.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLJ6M3021032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 40.70

 

Target 2: 37.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66

 

Daily control level: 41.25

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3022032016NY.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Friday.

 

However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.1252).

 

EURUSD has subsequently traded down to S2 (1.1197) which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci support level.

 

Bounce off S2 could see EURUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.

 

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to hold above S2 could see EURUSD trade down to S3 (1.1167) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3022032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Monday.

 

However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.4399).

 

GBPUSD has subsequently sliced through S2 (1.4297) which coincides with the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support level area.

 

Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above S2 and possibly S1 (1.4332).

 

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above S2 could see GBPUSD trade down to S3 (1.4229)

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3022032016NY.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.

 

However, this morning a resumption of the downtrend has occurred following a rejection of R1 (112.21).

 

USDJPY has subsequently sliced through the Daily Pivot (111.71) and tested and bounced off S1 (111.45)

 

Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above the Daily Pivot and possibly R1.

 

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the Daily Pivot could see USDJPY re-test S1

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3022032016NY.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.

 

During the morning USDCHF has attempted to re-test yesterday’s high and today’s R1 level (0.9731)

 

A breach of R1 could lead to a continuation of the move higher that sees USDCHF test R2 (0.9758) and the upper level of the down channel.

 

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the R1 could see USDCHF re-test the Daily Pivot.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3022032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders wait for the outcome of Canadian Government’s Annual Budget Statement.

 

This volatility initially led to a test of the Daily Pivot (1.3072) and then a spike that was however rejected at R1 (1.3127).

 

Market uncertainty could continue in the lead up to tonight’s major event.

 

Before the release of the budget statement moves above R1 and below S1 (1.3043) could be seen as potential fading opportunities

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3022032016NY.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders digest the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor upbeat assessment of the Australian economy.

 

This volatility initially led to a broad trading range with both R1 (0.7614) and S1 (.0.7556) being tested.

 

As AUDUSD has now initially rejected the 50% Fibonacci support level a resumption of the prior uptrend could see AUDUSD re-test R1.

 

Alternatively, a failure to hold above S1 could lead to the price action trading down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.7515).

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3022032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning XAUUSD has resumed its uptrend following a bounce off the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support area.

 

The move higher sliced through R1 (1252.56) but failed to reach R2 (1261.65) as the price action found resistance at a prior weekly swing level (1260.00)

 

A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold retest the 1260.00 level and then R2).

 

Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot (1246.50) could lead to the price action trading back down into the 61.8% Fibonacci support area.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3022032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil has experienced a two day down trend. However, lower prices were yesterday rejected at S1 (40.70),

 

This morning Oil has traded within a tight range at the highs of yesterday’s price action and above today’s Daily Pivot (41.25).

 

A continuation of the uptrend could see Oil test the R1 (42.10)

 

Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot could lead to the price action trading down S1 (40.74)

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has breached the uptrend channel, and is now heading to retest the bottom of the daily channel.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1220 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.1148, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1100, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD is heading to retest the bottom of the daily uptrend channel after it was unable to support the move higher.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4266 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4135, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4065, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4342, which is 1st pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is retesting the top of the downtrend channel.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 113.20, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 113.50, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 111.67, which today’s 1st pivot resistance level.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel. In addition, the pair is looking to reconfirm the breach of the daily uptrend channel.

 

USDCHF needs to break below 0.9716 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 0.9698, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9668, which is the 2nd pivot support of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9795, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel and today is looking to reconfirm it.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3069 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3000, being the next key level together with 1st pivot support of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3195, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is consolidating above the recently breached uptrend channel.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7602 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7654, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7710, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7520, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel as the US dollar has gained strength.

 

Gold needs to hold below 1250.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1222.39, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1211.93, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1250.15, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2303OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil is retesting the bottom of the newly created extension of the uptrend channel.

 

The commodity needs to break above 40.70 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 41.97, being 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 42.70, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.35, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2016

 

 

 

 

This morning will begin with the monthly report on the UK Retail Sales at 9:30 a.m. London time, released by the Office for National Statistics.

 

The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. As the consumer spending constitutes the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause a volatility of the GBP pairs.

 

The change in the inflation-adjusted sales is forecasted to decline to -0.7%, after the 2.3% improvement in the February’s release. As British Pound continues to weaken, the figures lower than expected could put downward pressure.

 

Following that the weekly US Unemployment Claims data will come into the spotlight at 1:30 p.m. London time. Also known as Jobless Claims, the indicator represents a measure of completed unemployment insurance forms that were submitted by individuals for the first time within a previous week.

 

Initial jobless claims have a big impact on financial markets because it shows a new and emerging unemployment and provides a gauge of strength in the US labour market. As employment figures and consumer spending are directly correlated, the statistics give an overview of the US economic activity.

 

The forecasted value for today’s release stands at 267.000, with the expected increase from the previous 265.000 number.

 

At the same time, traders will be on the lookout for the US the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders report, which usually has a high impact on the FOREX market.

 

This report measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods, excluding transportation items. The value for the previous period was published as 1.8% while the forecast for this reporting period is -0.2%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3024032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1285

 

Target 2: 1.1070

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

 

Daily control level: 1.1260

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3024032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4260

 

Target 2: 1.3970

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147

 

Daily control level: 1.4400

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3024032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 113.50

 

Target 2: 111.20

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14

 

Daily control level: 112.20

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3024032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.9840

 

Target 2: 0.9660

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

 

Daily control level: 0.9670

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3024032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3355

 

Target 2: 1.3050

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

 

Daily control level: 1.3020

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3024032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7630

 

Target 2: 0.7435

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

 

Daily control level: 0.7650

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3024032016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1243.00

 

Target 2: 1198.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82

 

Daily control level: 1260.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3024032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 41.25

 

Target 2: 38.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

 

Daily control level: 42.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

This afternoon at 12:30 pm London the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its latest Final GDP report.

 

This report measures the annualized increase or decrease of all production which includes services that the US economy producers.

 

This report is produced on the quarterly basis and is released some 85 days after the quarter ends.

 

GDP data is released in three different versions being the Preliminary, Final and Advance GDP numbers. Of the three data sets, the Advanced GDP is the most followed as it is the earliest release and therefore usually has the greatest effect.

 

GDP data is an important measure of countries economic wellbeing as a productive activity. Expanding or contraction productivity can be used as an early barometer which measures expanding or contracting economic activity.

 

The prior GDP release showed indicated an expansion of 1.0% with the market consensus expecting today’s number to be unchanged.

 

In general, a GDP release that is greater than the forecast should lead to an appreciation of the US Dollar.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3025032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1285

 

Target 2: 1.1070

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

 

Daily control level: 1.1260

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3025032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4300

 

Target 2: 1.4005

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146

 

Daily control level: 1.4400

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3025032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 113.95

 

Target 2: 111.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14

 

Daily control level: 112.35

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3025032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.9845

 

Target 2: 0.9670

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 0.9735

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3025032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3390

 

Target 2: 1.3090

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

 

Daily control level: 1.3020

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3025032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7615

 

Target 2: 0.7425

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 0.7650

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today the Easter bank holidays carries on in many European countries, among which are France, Germany and Italy. Hence, the morning trading session is promising to be quiet.

 

Observing the markets, the Japanese Yen was the major underperformer this morning, when USDJPY reached 113.68 high. This action was mainly due to the stronger Nikkei 225 index, which undermined demand for the low-risk currency.

 

Oil price continued to rebound from the last week lows and is heading for a second straight monthly gain. Thus, Brent oil was trading at US$ 41.55 this morning, whereas WTI extended to US$ 40.36. That could probably decrease the expectations that Saudi Arabia, the major oil exporter, would abandon it currency peg to the US Dollar, which is in place since 1986.

 

Looking forward to the afternoon session the US Personal Consumption Expenditure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1:30 pm London time. The data representing the amount of goods and services consumed by individuals in the month of February, this time, is expected to decline to 0.2% after it showed 0.3% increase last month.

 

At the same time, the US personal spending numbers will also be published. The previous results of the change in inflation-adjusted value of consumer expenditures showed 0.5% increase, whereas expectations for today’s data stand at 0.2%

 

Pending home sales will round up this news day at 3:00 pm. The data shows a change in the number of homes, which are still awaiting to be sold but already having a contract transaction and is forecasted to improve to 1.2%, up from -2.5% of last time.

 

Should US data come better than expected that could boost the recovery of the US currency? The US Dollar has opened this week with the gap up extending to 96.40 mark, which is the currency’s six- week high.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1265

 

Target 2: 1.1065

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

 

Daily control level: 1.1190

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4265

 

Target 2: 1.3985

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

 

Daily control level: 1.4185

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM302803216.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 114.25

 

Target 2: 112.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

 

Daily control level: 112.35

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3028032016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.9850

 

Target 2: 0.9680

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

 

Daily control level: 0.9735

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3415

 

Target 2: 1.3125

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

 

Daily control level: 1.3020

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7600

 

Target 2: 0.7420

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

 

Daily control level: 0.7540

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1238.00

 

Target 2: 1194.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.45

 

Daily control level: 1224.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3028032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 41.35

 

Target 2: 38.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45

 

Daily control level: 42.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US Dollar is trading higher this morning as traders await a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman later this afternoon. As always, Janet Yellen’s presentation will be closely scrutinized by the market participants, who will look for clues regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy.

 

On the March 16, the FOMC delivered a statement, which gave a dovish message to the markets as it reduced the projected amount of interest rate increases for 2016. This action will likely lead to a lower dollar and expected to boost the US economy.

 

The shift towards a policy that seeks to devalue the US currency was highlighted by FOMC Chairwoman’s message to the worlds gathered press that US Dollar strength transitory. Although this term was used this was the first time it was applied in regards to the Dollar’s value.

 

The main goals of the policymakers are the price stability and a healthy US job market. Nevertheless, a weaker US Dollar policy is welcomed by the global markets as this could lead to price stability and less deflation there too. Furthermore, the policy of deliberately weakening the US Dollar could act as a spur for growth both within the USA and across the globe..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSDM3029032016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1295

 

Target 2: 1.1095

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

 

Daily control level: 1.1140

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSDM3029032016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4400

 

Target 2: 1.4105

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

 

Daily control level: 1.4105

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPYM3029032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 114.45

 

Target 2: 112.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

 

Daily control level: 113.10

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHFM3029032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9815

 

Target 2: 0.9650

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

 

Daily control level: 0.9790

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCADM3029032016.png

 

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3320

 

Target 2: 1.3050

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137

 

Daily control level: 1.3020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSDM3029032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7630

 

Target 2: 0.7450

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

 

Daily control level: 0.7490

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GOLDM3029032016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1243.00

 

Target 2: 1199.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.07

 

Daily control level: 1224.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CLK6M3029032016.png

 

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 40.70

 

Target 2: 37.90

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.39

 

Daily control level: 40.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30.03.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel as investors hopes regarding the US rate hikes are fading after the yesterday’s speech of Janet Yellen.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.1370, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1430, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the newly created uptrend channel.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4326 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4496, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4248, which is pair’s 1st pivot support level.

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY plummeted lower as the US dollar is weakening.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 113.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 111.83, being the 2nd pivot support. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 111.60, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.02, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDCHFH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is dropped lower on the dovish speech of Janet Yellen made yesterday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9693 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 0.9600, being the pair’s next key level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9554, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9700.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003USDCADH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is testing the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3112 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.2935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. After the target is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3112, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has reached a nine-months high this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7593 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7715, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7770, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7593, being the pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is trading within the newly created downward trend channel, bouncing off the bottom off it.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1217.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1225.84, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1138.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1206.32, which is the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/3003OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil is has bounced off the bottom of the uptrend channel and is trading higher this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 39.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 40.94, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 41.35, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.00, being the commodity’s next key level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.04.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The beginning of the week started with heightened event risk when last Tuesday the Federal Reserve Charwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen spoke about the Economic Outlook of the US and global economy during a talk given to the Economic Club of New York.

 

This speech was extremely dovish on the prospect of future interest rate increases when Yellen spoke of the need for a stabilization of foreign economies and markets and the impact of the strong US Dollar.

 

This week will end how it began with today’s New York session preceded by the monthly Jobs Report which is due to be announced at 1:30 PM London time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Jobs Report, which is made up of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases.

 

Although all three reports are important as together they give a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market, the Non-Farm Payrolls number always receives the lion’s share of the attention.

 

In a prelude to this afternoon’s data releases, yesterday, the US Department of Labor published the missing piece of the Jobs Report picture when it announced the Unemployment Claims data. Unemployment Claims had been in steady decline since they hit a peak during the time when the great recession ravaged the United States and global economy.

 

As unemployment claims are published on a weekly basis, there is a lot of data points to consider however the downtrend in this number does support the good overall picture that we have seen in the monthly release of the Jobs Report. The prior week’s announcement was 265K, and the consensus view was that there would be a slight increase in claimants with a rise to 266K. Yesterday’s actual number was 276K.

 

Back to today’s releases, the markets are expecting the NFP number to be reported at around the 206K level which would be well below the prior month’s 242K. It should be noted that the actual NFP number published has tended to ignore analysts assessments in recent months. Therefore trying to glean anything from such forecasts would seem to have little value.

 

The Unemployment Rate report has also indicated that there is strength in the US employment market as the amount of those seeking employment has dropped from over 10% back in 2009 to 4.9% that was reported in the March publication. As the rate of unemployment is now so small, it would be tough for the NFP numbers to continually show such strength as fewer and fewer citizens are now looking for work.

 

Which brings us to the final part of the Jobs Report, which is, of course, the Average Hourly Earnings release. It is to be expected that businesses would begin to increase salaries offered as a means to retain and recruit employees? However, although the Average Hourly Earnings number have only on the occasional month indicated that wages are in fact increasing, there have been other months such as the March publication which were very disappointing.

 

We end where we started with Janet Yellen at the FOMC and the dual mandate of price stability and a healthy jobs market. The Federal Reserve is dependent on data, therefore, although it would like to see continued strength in the Jobs Report numbers, its will be hoping that the Average Hourly Earnings numbers begin to move in line with the rest of this publication.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1455

 

Target 2: 1.1300

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

 

Daily control level: 1.1305

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4520

 

Target 2: 1.4230

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

 

Daily control level: 1.4315

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 113.50

 

Target 2: 111.55

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

 

Daily control level: 112.70

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9685

 

Target 2: 0.9545

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

 

Daily control level: 0.9665

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3145

 

Target 2: 1.2860

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

 

Daily control level: 1.3215

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7745

 

Target 2: 0.7585

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

 

Daily control level: 0.7630

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3001042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1252.00

 

Target 2: 1212.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 20.00

 

Daily control level: 1222.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3001042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 39.55

 

Target 2: 36.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

 

Daily control level: 39.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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