Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.09.2015 Many commentators and market professionals have commented that United States Federal Reserve decision not to increase rates was due to worries over inflation and the recent economic contraction in China. This morning we received further bad news from China when Markit released poor Caixin Flash Manufacturing numbers. A Flash PMI reading of above 50.0 would indicate that the economy is experiencing Industrial expansion. This morning’s numbers, however, continued to disappoint with the Flash Manufacturing PMI remaining stubbornly in a downtrend. Furthermore, this latest measure of industrial activity which was measured at 47.0 not only came in under the prior month’s number of 47.3 but also disappointed forecasters who had predicted a reading of 47.6. So with the Chinese economic contraction continuing to cloud the thoughts of the decision makers, across the Pacific Ocean in Washington, D.C, should the turmoil that is currently being faced by the Emerging Markets take centre stage as one of the key policy consideration together with the slow pace of inflation growth and the drop off in in commodity prices? There is, of course, another policy concern that although has been mention has taken a bit of a back seat to the Emerging Markets and low inflation environment story. That is the strength of the US Dollar which in recent months has now become an obstacle to the Federal Reserve acting on its policy goals. A US Dollar at the current price levels can have two major detrimental effects. First of all, US Dollar strength can have a negative impact on the competitive advantage of US exporters. The simple reason for this being that US goods become more expensive and, therefore, more difficult to export. The slowdown in US exports will also put a damper on economic growth and expansion in the industrial and service sector. The impact of the high US Dollar can be immediate as Europeans elect to stay on the continent rather than their take vacations in Florida and the Pacific West Coast. On the other hand, US consumers will take advantage of the cheaper Euro and British Pound and flock to Europe where they can spend their Dollars. The other impact a strong US Dollar can have on the US economy and therefore FOMC thinking is a fear that the 2% inflation target will not be reached in the foreseeable further. With commodity prices already at lows and with the cost of Chinese and European industrial products keenly priced the very idea that the Federal Reserve will embark on a cycle of interest rate rises will strengthen the US Dollar and further worsen an anaemic domestic inflation picture. This leads us back to the FOMC’s decision not to increase interest rates last week and the probability that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee will play the same hand when they meet in October and December. With the Federal Reserve seemingly unwilling to hike interest rates in fear that a move too soon will choke off the US recovery, what will Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank do to counteract the lack of action by the US Federal Reserve? We already had a response which is more monetary easing in the form of QE2 if it is required. With the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane only last week mentioning the possibility of a UK interest rate cut and with China also easing it would appear that the new normal of low-interest rates, low growth and low inflation is here to stay for some considerable time. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1220 Target 2: 1.1015 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5480 Target 2: 1.5245 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.5525 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.20 Target 2: 119.05 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.08 Daily control level: 119.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9845 Target 2: 0.9660 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.9705 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3355 Target 2: 1.3150 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.3215 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7180 Target 2: 0.7000 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.7160 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1136.00 Target 2: 1111.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.80 Daily control level: 1137.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH123092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.35 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78 Daily control level: 47.25 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.09.2015 This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers. This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month. The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date. Due to the size and breadth of this report the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond. The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity. Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union. The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase. The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.8, as compared to the previous number of 108.3. A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure. The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth. As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly. Today’s Ifo release is even more relevant due to the recent news that broke, that the German global automotive giant, Volkswagen had manipulated data on US diesel car emissions. That a well-respected and much-loved brand such as Volkswagen had allowed its standards to slip has sent shock waves through the global automobile industry and dented consumer confidence and trust. Although the feedback thus far, is that this case of data manipulation is not an industry wide transgression, the fallout could have a detrimental effect on Brand Germany. We have already seen equity values in automakers tumbled across world stock markets. The timing of this news could not have been more inappropriate with global indices breaking down from technical bearish long term patterns. The Volkswagen Company, since its rebirth from the ruins of ashes of the Second World War, has been a champion of innovation and efforts to produce automobiles that are efficient and as non-polluting as possible to the environment. The very idea one of Europe’s industrial champions had misled its clients for sure is going to depress consumer confidence at the very time when the global economy is flat-lining. It is expected that the fines that will be imposed on the Volkswagen group will be large. The company has already set aside EUR 6.5 billion, but many expect that potential financial penalties could top USD 18 billion. However, what could be more costly is the reputational cost of this scandal. The Volkswagen Company now needs to work in overdrive to reassure the public that this will not happen again. Most of all, what is needed is an independent, consumer sponsored body that can independently test and verify vehicle emissions. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1290 Target 2: 1.1085 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5365 Target 2: 1.5130 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119 Daily control level: 1.5525 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.25 Target 2: 119.25 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.02 Daily control level: 119.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9890 Target 2: 0.9710 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9735 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3415 Target 2: 1.3225 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.3230 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7090 Target 2: 0.6910 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7160 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1143.00 Target 2: 1117.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76 Daily control level: 1137.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH124092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 46.50 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86 Daily control level: 47.25 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.09.2015 A little over a week ago, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen announced that the committee that she chairs had decided to keep the Fed Funds target rate at 0.25% In a statement and the following press briefing, the FOMC boss emphasized a rather dovish tone. There are now, only two more rate decisions dates left for 2015 that take place on October 27 – 28 and December 15 -16. With time seemingly running out, many traders, investors and other market participants are now expecting that there would be no move taken to increase the Fed Funds rate at the two up and coming meetings. There are now increasing concerns over the economic slowdown in China. This is compounded by a pessimistic picture developing in other emerging market nations with fears that a sharp contraction in Latin Americas biggest economy, Brazil will affect other countries in the region. There are also ongoing concerns with respect to the weak inflation picture with CPI data falling a long way short from its 2% target number. The anaemic inflation outlook is now compounded by the strong United States Dollar with the Green Backs strength now being a source of imported deflationary pressure as American business and industry are able to purchase foreign products and services at less expense. The strong US Dollar will also have an eventual effect on growth, especially if it continues to appreciate in value. The concern is now growing amongst US producers that their products are being priced out of the market and making it increasingly difficult to export to global markets. With so many factors stacked up against increase the Feds Fund rate before the end of 2015, it was understandable that the FOMC decided to hold back on an interest rate increase in September. However, last night during a very long speech that was given to the University of Massachusetts, Janet Yellen decided to reignite the debate on the merits of a 2015 interest rate increase. Stating that the future outlook for US economy “generally appear solid”, Yellen went on to say the FOMC was “on track” to increase interest rates. In contradictory statements, Janet Yellen during yesterday’s speech attempted to cover all her bases. On the one had the FOMC boss said of the current emerging market crisis that she and her fellow policymakers did not expect to significant impact on policy. At the same time, on the question of inflation and a potential slow increase in CPI data. Janet Yellen said, “should such a development occur, we would need to adjust the stance of policy in response”. From this viewpoint and as written in prior articles, if the time was not right to increase interest rates in September, why should the Federal Reserve take the next step and move in October or December. How much will really change during the last quarter to end a period of six years of historical low Federal Funds rates. Especially as such a move will cause the US Dollar to further strengthen and thus making US domestic production more uncompetitive. Last night’s speech was a case of Janet Yellen trying to reel in the dovish sentiment that followed the overly accommodating comments of last week’s FOMC announcement. This deliberate attempt of forward misguidance will, of course, keep the markets on edge for the next three months. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH125052015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1340 Target 2: 1.1120 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111 Daily control level: 1.1050 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH125052015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5360 Target 2: 1.5125 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.01118 Daily control level: 1.5525 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH1250520151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.00 Target 2: 119.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03 Daily control level: 120.55 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH125052015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9850 Target 2: 0.9650 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 0.9800 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH12505215.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3400 Target 2: 1.3200 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.3305 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH12505215.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7120 Target 2: 0.6930 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7160 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH125052015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1165.00 Target 2: 1137.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.14 Daily control level: 1121.25 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH125052015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 46.00 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85 Daily control level: 47.25 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.10.2015 According to Christine Lagarde, who heads the International Monetary Fund global growth for 2015 is unlikely to keep pace with the performance of 2014. Furthermore, the IMF president only expects a small pickup in global growth for next year. Mrs. Lagarde pointed to the slowdown in China as a major concern. However, the IMF boss in a passing shot across the bows of the United States Federal Reserve said that there is potential for a “vicious cycle” occurring due to the expectations that the Feds Fund rate will be increased by the end of the year. Lagarde spoke of her concerns over the global economy at the Council of the Americas. The World Bank and IMF are due to hold their annual meetings next week. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund is due to publish its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. There are now substantial fears that a move to a cycle of increasing interest rates would further damage the economies of Asia, Latin America and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and Brazil. Next week’s IMF and World Bank meetings will give those hoping the FOMC keeps a foot on the brake, the opportunity to push the debate towards keeping the Fed Funds rate at the present level. Christine Lagarde highlighted her fears by saying: “The good news is that we are seeing a modest pickup in advanced economies. The moderate recovery is strengthening in the euro Area; Japan is returning to positive growth, and activity remains robust in the US and the UK as well.” “The not-so-good news is that emerging economies are likely to see their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth.” “On the economic front, there is … reason to be concerned. The prospect of rising interest rates in the United States and China’s slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility.” “Rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar could reveal currency mismatches, leading to corporate defaults… and a vicious cycle between corporates, banks, and sovereigns.” The timing of Lagarde’s comments would have been carefully chosen. With the Federal Reserve due to meet on October 27 to 28, this incisive intervention was aimed to sow seeds of doubt in the minds of the FOMC boss Janet Yellen and her hawkish colleagues on the committee. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH101102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1280 Target 2: 1.1060 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.1145 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH101102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5235 Target 2: 1.5050 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.5215 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.75 Target 2: 118.85 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98 Daily control level: 119.50 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9820 Target 2: 0.9840 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9815 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3400 Target 2: 1.3210 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.3455 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7100 Target 2: 0.6930 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.6995 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1128.00 Target 2: 1100.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 13.91 Daily control level: 1134.65 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH101012015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59 Daily control level: 44.85 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.10.2015 It is once again upon us, the once a month Friday Job Report. The significance of today’s jobs numbers is great with the United States Federal Reserve due to give us their interest rate decision rate on October 27 – 28. The FOMC failed to increase the Fed Funds interest rate in September with the chairwoman of the committee, Janet Yellen citing concerns over weak inflation and the contraction in the global economy and more specifically the Emerging Market nations of China and more recently Brazil. Yesterday, the Department of Labor published a disappointing number which saw Unemployment Claims increase to 277,000. The market had expected an increase to 273,000, with the prior week’s number standing at 267,000. This afternoon Jobs Report, brought to us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will include the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate and the headline Non-Farm Employment Change. Will the September report give the US Federal Reserve the confidence to begin its much-delayed agenda to normalize the interest rate environment? The forecast is predicting that the US job market to add 201,000 places for September. However, traders will also be looking at the August number to see if there will be an upward revision to the rather disappointing 173,000 data release. The forecast for Average hourly earnings is that the pace of expansion will drop from the prior months 0.3% to 0.2%. The Federal Reserve will be hoping for an uptick in this data will be a signal that wage inflation is healthy and expanding at manageable levels. The disappointing Unemployment Claims data was accompanied by an equally soft ISM manufacturing number. Although the market had predicted a decline from 51.1 to 50.8 the actual release was reported as 50.2. This brings the manufacturing sector close to levels of contraction. Yesterday was not all about disappointing data as the Total Vehicle Sales release of 18.2M beating expectations of 17.5M and the prior release of 17.8M. With the data being so mixed, the Federal Reserve will really need to see a Jobs Report that shows marked improvement and that is supported by substantial revisions to the August NFP data. The sentiment prior to today’s announcement points to the FOMC not taking any action on interest rates in 2015 with just 20% predicting a rise in October and 40% in December. With the members of the Federal Reserve leaning unconvincingly and without conviction towards an increase in 2015, today’s Jobs Report is going to give Janet Yellen and her team lots to think about. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1300 Target 2: 1.1085 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 1.1145 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5240 Target 2: 1.5015 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115 Daily control level: 1.5215 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.85 Target 2: 118.90 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95 Daily control level: 119.50 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9855 Target 2: 0.9680 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.9815 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3365 Target 2: 1.3165 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.3455 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7110 Target 2: 0.6945 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.6995 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1127.00 Target 2: 1099.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.21 Daily control level: 1119.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH102102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66 Daily control level: 44.85 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.10.2015 Friday’s dull afternoon was livened up considerably once the job data news was released. The data for the month of September reported that only 142,000 new jobs had been created. This report would have had the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen scratching her head. The market had been expecting Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change data post 201,000 new positions filled. This news sent the equity markets rallying and the US Dollar crashing. In the further gloomy news, there was an expectation that the August release would be revised considerably higher. However much to the markets surprise, the revision was actually downwards with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing that there was in fact 59,000 fewer jobs created for the months of July and August. There was also bad news on when it came to salaries with the Average Hourly Earnings number also missing expectation as it posted a decline to 0.0% versus market expectations of 0.2%. The only bright spot on the horizon was the Unemployment Rate data which was reported as remaining at a low 5.1% for the second month in succession. Friday’s jobs announcements round off a bad week for the US Labour market with Thursdays Unemployment Claims report that was released by the Department of Labor also disappointing the markets. The September Jobs Report caught many market participants off guard would have would have shocked Janet Yellen and her fellow committee members on the Federal Reserve. However, there is also an undercurrent developing that the FOMC had knowledge that something was not totally healthy with the jobs picture. This would go a long way to explaining the overly dovish September, Federal Reserve meeting. The main consequence of this stunning news has now seen the market price has pushed out the timing of an interest rate increase out to March 2016. Will the FOMC now still go ahead an increase interest rates in 2015? October now looks well and truly looks off the table. December could still happen but we now only have two months of data left for the Federal Reserve to consider. This means that there needs to be a rapid improvement in the data if the Federal Reserve is to act on interest rates this year. With some much uncertainty surrounding the United States and global economy and with US jobs numbers looking extremely soft the obvious course of action the Federal Reserve to take is do nothing in 2015 as it increasingly appears that now is not the time to increase interest rates. Furthermore, although market expectations should not dictate Federal Reserve policy, the pricing-in, of an interest rise for March 2016 would seem logical, as it gives Janet Yellen and her colleagues more data points to consider before they decide to increase interest rates. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1335 Target 2: 1.1100 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.1145 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5305 Target 2: 1.5075 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116 Daily control level: 1.5105 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5305 Target 2: 1.5075 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116 Daily control level: 1.5105 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9800 Target 2: 0.9610 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.9795 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH1051020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3255 Target 2: 1.3040 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.3250 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7135 Target 2: 0.6970 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7000 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH1051020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1154.00 Target 2: 1121.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40 Daily control level: 1104.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH105102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.00 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.72 Daily control level: 44.20 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.10.2015 The Reserve Bank of Australia this morning hosted its monthly policy meeting. The outcome of the meeting was the decision by the RBA to keep its benchmark cash rate on at 2% for the sixth straight month in succession. This inaction was widely expected, especially as last month’s decision by the United States Federal Reserve to keep their own Fed Funds rate on hold was reinforced by a very soft Jobs Report which took many market participants and commentators by surprise. The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a window of opportunity to be patient whilst it gauges the effect of its recent policy of monetary easing. Especially as it seems unlikely that a US rate hike will not happen during the FOMC’s October or December meetings with the markets now pricing in an initial rate increase for March 2016. The Reserve Bank of Australia, in its statement, cited internal factors as being a key reason why the central bank declined to choose a path of further easing by pointed to a better than expected economic outlook. There will further news from other central banks tomorrow. The trading day starts early on Wednesday with the Bank of Japan issuing its monthly Bank of Japan Report. This is followed by news from London when we expect to see no change to the Official Bank Rate which currently stands at 0.50%. However, traders and investors will be anxious to see if there is a shift in the prior month’s committee member bias. In September, the dovish sentiment won the day with the vote strongly in favour in keeping the rates unchanged with a majority of 8 to 1. The way the members vote is not the whole story. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement should give us an insight on the current strength or weakness in the dovish bias. Furthermore, the markets will be looking for any references to the United States and more specifically, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and last week’s poor Jobs Report. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1295 Target 2: 1.1065 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116 Daily control level: 1.1145 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5250 Target 2: 1.5030 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.5105 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH10612015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.45 Target 2: 119.45 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99 Daily control level: 118.65 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9845 Target 2: 0.9660 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.9795 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3190 Target 2: 1.2975 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.3250 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7165 Target 2: 0.6970 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7050 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1150.00 Target 2: 1120.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61 Daily control level: 1129.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH106102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.00 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070 Daily control level: 44.20 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.10.2015 As many have expected the International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year. The IMF has reduced its forecast by 0.2% from 3.3% to 3.1%. Furthermore, the IMF has also cut it’s estimated for 2016 from 3.8% to 3.6%. These amendments to World growth were included in the IMF’s latest report in which it reiterate its pessimistic view on the global economy by saying “A return to robust and synchronized global expansion remains elusive”. The IMF pointed to key areas of concern which it believed could play a significant part in stunting future growth. Geopolitical risk High on the agenda is the recent escalation of tensions in Syria and the Russian intervention to support the Government in Damascus. The fears of escalating Geopolitical tensions and concerns that the fluid and unstable situations in Ukraine, Middle East and Africa could cause major uncertainty and further polarize the conflicting interests. The Turkish Government has now gone as far as to hand out to its Russian counterpart a stiff warning. This followed Russian Airforce fighter incursion into Turkish airspace. The prospect of a NATO nation engaging the Russian military on the Syrian border is a worrying scenario and will do little to calm market volatility. Lower oil and commodity prices The IMF also mentioned bleak commodity picture which has done much to weaken, Russia, Australia, Nigeria and has led to belt-tightening in the Middle East. The decline in the price of Oil has in recent weeks stopped with Light Sweet Crude now trading back up to the US Dollar 50.00 per barrel. Potential for a sharper than expected Chinese slowdown The Chinese Government has a policy goal to evolve the nation’s economy from one that is an investment based to one that of a developed consumption profile. The concern is that the Chinese economic metamorphosis is not managed correctly. This could lead to a larger than expected economic contraction. The prospect of the Chinese Government losing control of its tightly run economy could have unforeseen circumstances not just for China but the global economy. Furthermore, any over-correction could take a long time to fix. Therefore, China watchers will be hoping that any transition takes place with a soft economic landing. Greece Although Greece is no longer in the international headlines, the problems that this country faces are immense. The Greek people recently voted back into power a SYRIZA-led coalition with the Prime Minister, Mr. Alexis Tsipras being the unlikely poster boy of European austerity. The Greek issue has not been solved. The can has just been kicked down the road until the next crisis happens. Emerging Markets Some but not all of the Emerging Markets have been caught in the eye of a hurricane. This is due to a debt-fuelled binge, a strong US Dollar and a fall in commodity prices. The markets had expected that the United States Federal Reserve was going to increase interest rates in September. However, the decision to keep rates on hold and following the worse than expected jobs report, some of the pressure on Emerging Market economies has been lifted. That the FOMC has now included the risk of international conditions as a key area of concern should give the likes of Brazil and Malaysia some hope in the medium term. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1380 Target 2: 1.1600 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113 Daily control level: 1.1170 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5330 Target 2: 1.5120 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.5135 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.50 Target 2: 119.25 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96 Daily control level: 118.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9755 Target 2: 0.9570 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 0.9765 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3140 Target 2: 1.2930 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.3135 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7245 Target 2: 0.7085 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7050 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1162.00 Target 2: 1131.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52 Daily control level: 1129.60 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH107102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 51.00 Target 2: 47.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80 Daily control level: 46.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.10.2015 A few months ago there was a strong possibility that the Bank of England Governor would be the first amongst his peers to increase interest rates. However, with the FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaking in an overly dovish tone during the September Federal Reserve meeting, the window of opportunity for a Bank of England interest rate nominalization has diminished considerably. If we now add to the equation, a very poor recent United States Jobs Report and a heightened degree of uncertainty emanating from the Federal Reserve, over their intentions, the task of the Bank of England’s Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has become a more difficult one to say the least. Not so long ago, the markets had expected the Federal Reserve to make their move and increase US interest rates by the end of 2015. However, with so much changing in recent weeks, the markets have now pushed back the timing of the first rate increase to March 2016. In the United Kingdom, traders and investors have taken their cue from what is happening across the pond in the United States. With the Bank of England’s, 2% inflation target not expected to be reached by the back end of 2016 the markets have now pushed back the timing of the initial move to happen by late 2016 or early 2017. Market have not always been very good at predicting interest rates. What is certain is that the Bank of England will not move today and increase the Official Bank Rate from its present 0.5% level. Such a surprise move would be a seismic shock to the markets. The Bank of England is not in the business of delivering shocks as its main policy goal is to ensure price stability. If one was to discount the possibility of the Bank of England moving on interest rates before the Federal Reserve, what are the factors we need to consider? From a hawkish, perspective let’s consider the following. The UK labour market metrics, it can be argued are now calling for an interest rate rise to happen ahead of the inflation curve. Furthermore, it should be considered that the current low levels of Consumer Price Index data is a product of low energy prices. If we consider that the current low level of demand for energy and its oversupply to the market is supposed to be a temporary condition, then the current level of inflation is also transitory. Once energy prices move back up to what are seen as prior normal levels, then it can be argued that CPI data will move in step and reach the 2% inflation target that is required by the Bank of England. There is also a very strong dovish counter argument. The question is where will inflation come from. Commodity prices are still depressed and the Labour market is improving but one would not say that wage inflation has expanded to unmanageable levels. The call for Mark Carney and his counterpart at the FOMC, Janet Yellen is this. Can they trust the trend in the data sufficiently to make a call on future inflation? This is a very difficult task for all Central Banks as they need to effectively aim at a moving target which is a product of data that is not yet available. A case in point being the extremely bad US jobs data that was released prior to the end of October FOMC meeting. The current level of inflation and the data that produced this result are known. The question is, can Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, with a degree accuracy time their move to ensure that both overtly expansive inflation is avoided whilst at the same time a premature action does not take place which cripples the fragile growth that the UK economy has enjoyed recently. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1340 Target 2: 1.1135 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH10812015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5415 Target 2: 1.5215 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.5135 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.85 Target 2: 119.15 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88 Daily control level: 119.75 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9515 Target 2: 0.9650 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.9765 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3140 Target 2: 1.2930 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.3135 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7280 Target 2: 0.7125 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080 Daily control level: 0.7050 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1160.50 Target 2: 1130.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.28 Daily control level: 1129.50 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH108102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 50.00 Target 2: 47.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.73 Daily control level: 46.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.10.2015 The latest release of Federal Reserve minutes told us that the members of the committee were, on the whole, confident that the United States economy could bear the cost of an interest rate rise in the latter part of 2015. This was despite the fact that the deteriorating Jobs Report that followed the FOMC meeting gave the markets little confidence that domestic economic conditions are improving. The FOMC chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee viewed it “prudent” to keep the Fed Funds interest rates at the <0.25 target. The Federal Reserve continued to be a hostage to data with the policy decision makers looking for confirmation that the United States economy is on the path of sustainable growth and that inflation would reach the 2% target which is deemed by the majority of Central Banks as normal healthy. The FOMC has now according to the minutes highlighted the risks of a continued contraction in China and the Emerging Market nations. There is a fear being that US Dollar would strengthen further as it is fuelled my higher US interest rates. The stronger US Dollar would have the effect of harming the competitiveness of exporters and in turn further depress the domestic growth outlook. It now looks unlikely that the FOMC will move on interest rates in October. Furthermore, a December Fed Funds interest rate increase is now become more and more a distant possibility with the markets over the past week pricing in a move in happening in March 2016. Confidence and confirmation are now quickly becoming the new Federal Reserve catch phrases. The use of this language by the FOMC only highlights the indecisive mood that has now gripped the committee. The minutes of the Fed meeting told a story of the Doves on one side, deciding to sit on the fence in fear of acting prematurely and the Hawks on the other side, arguing the case of an interest rise so as to avert inflationary pressures causing unwanted consequences. The consequence of the current Federal Reserve failure to act leads to a growing view that FOMC policy is diverging from tight constraints of monitoring inflation and the labour market. Federal Reserve policy has morphed since Janet Yellen took up its leadership. We now have a Federal Reserve that takes into consideration every possible crisis, be it Greece, China, the Emerging Markets and then fails to act. The fear of pulling the plaster will create a belief that the Federal Reserve will never act because the conditions will never be perfect for a rate increase. The FOMC needs to grasp the bull by the horns. The conditions will never be optimal for a rate increase as there will always be another crisis around the corner. The Federal Reserve should act on interest rates once the metrics on jobs and inflation tell them that conditions or more or less met. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1375 Target 2: 1.1175 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.1235 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5450 Target 2: 1.5240 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.5260 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.75 Target 2: 119.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84 Daily control level: 120.10 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9735 Target 2: 0.9560 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.9740 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3115 Target 2: 1.2915 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.3075 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7340 Target 2: 0.7180 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7160 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7340 Target 2: 0.7180 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7160 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH109102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 51.00 Target 2: 48.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79 Daily control level: 48.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.10.2015 The annual Columbus Day holiday is once again upon us which means it’s a Bank holiday in the United States. With citizens of Japan and Canada also enjoying bank holidays, trading is typically erratic and low in liquidity. Away from the celebrations, three of Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s colleagues on the committee will be giving speeches. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Mr. Dennis Lockhart will be addressing the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s Fall Conference, in Orlando on the subject that is of greatest concern to policymakers and the markets. This being his view on the United States economic outlook. Later in the day, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Mr. Charles Evans will address the 49th World Steel Association and this is followed by the Federal Reserve Governor, Mrs. Lael Brainard, will be speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington on the subject of the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. With so many of her colleagues speaking about the economy the state of the US economy, the Columbus Day holiday will no doubt give the FOMC Chairwoman the time to contemplate the economic outlook. With the October rate decision soon to be upon us there is a small possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to increase interest rates. However, the Bank of England Governor, Mr. Mark Carney has expressed his viewed that a move on interest rates is not contingent on the Federal Reserve acting first. Carney expresses this view last Thursday when he said. “The exact timing of the Fed move is not decisive for the timing of the move by the Bank of England”. A much more hawkish view on interest rates, was expressed by a former Bank of England, Mr. Andrew Sentence when he said that Central Banks are giving too much significance to areas of concern that are short term in nature such as the current low price of Crude Oil. Mr. Sentence went on to say, “We have independent central banks because they are meant to be courageous, they are meant to try and get ahead of the curve, they are meant to do things that politicians might find difficult and they don’t seem to behaving in that way at the moment”. With a more aggressive tone coming from both former and current Bank of England policymakers, it might be for the Janet Yellen to ditch her prudent attitude on interest rates and take the plunge. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1460 Target 2: 1.1260 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.1235 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5410 Target 2: 1.5215 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.5260 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH1121020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.00 Target 2: 119.40 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81 Daily control level: 119.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH1121020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9735 Target 2: 0.9560 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.9740 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3060 Target 2: 1.2680 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.2990 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7400 Target 2: 0.7230 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7300 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1172.00 Target 2: 1139.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.45 Daily control level: 1136.50 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH112102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 52.00 Target 2: 48.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.78 Daily control level: 48.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.10.2015 Today, two of the biggest economies within the European Union are to release significant data. From the United Kingdom, we will have the latest inflation data and from the Euro Zones industrial engine, Germany we will have sentiment data which will be published after the damaging Volkswagen scandal has come to light. UK CPI release The action begins early this morning at 9:30 am London time, when the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers. The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate. The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance. The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011 when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.The data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to remain near zero in the near future. The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows the UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extent prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone. The recent hawkish comments on interest rates emanating from both current and past Bank of England officials has helped the British Pound appreciate over the past 5 trading sessions. This bullish feel to the Pound has continued into this morning. If a pickup in inflation is reported today the potential for an acceleration in the buying of the Pound should not be ruled out. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1455 Target 2: 1.1260 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.1345 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5410 Target 2: 1.5215 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.5300 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.80 Target 2: 119.25 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78 Daily control level: 119.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9715 Target 2: 0.9540 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.9595 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3095 Target 2: 1.2895 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.2900 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7440 Target 2: 0.7280 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7300 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1179.00 Target 2: 1146.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.57 Daily control level: 1136.50 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH113102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 46.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79 Daily control level: 50.55 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.10.2015 According to data published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, inflation dropped below zero. Although not a huge shock, the latest Consumer Price Index reports that inflation now stands at -0.1. This latest report places CPI data well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%. This would imply that the Governor of the Bank England, Mr. Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee are now further away than ever in increasing the benchmark rate of interest. For the ordinary person on the street of London and the rest of the United Kingdom, the drop off in inflation is not actually bad news. Deflation, however, is for many an economist is a nasty word. One only need to look at Japan which has suffered from deflation for over a decade. However, the similarities between the Japanese and the United Kingdom’s economy are few and far between. The big difference being that of public debt, with the Japanese economy struggling to cope under a mountain off borrowings that equates to over 200% of GDP. The UK, on the other hand, has a much more manageable debt burden which is just under 90% of the country’s GDP. Back in April of this year, inflation dropped beneath zero, however, since then, the level of CPI has hovered around 0.00%. This is not bad news for the average British citizen as this means that the cost of living has not risen. Additionally, average earnings in the UK have also risen and this has had the effect on making the majority of those in paid employment richer. Prices in the UK have been pushed lower. The reason for this is due to the drop-off in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper and Tin. Furthermore, the glut in Crude Oil supply has also led to the cost of fuel and energy prices falling. The well-publicized supermarket wars have also meant that the average price for the grocery basket is now lower than a year ago. The fall in food prices has coincided with the appreciation in the British Pound which has driven down the cost of food imports. A seasonal factor behind the decrease in food prices is due to good weather conditions creating an abundant supply of cheap food products. With inflation flat lining, the pressure is now off the Bank of England to increase interest rates. The Bank of England’s is now predicting that inflation will reach 1% by the spring of 2016. It does seem a little optimistic that in a little under half a year that inflation will pick up by over 1%. Especially as news this morning out of the Far East, from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicated that Chinese CPI missed expectations by dropping to 1.6% EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1470 Target 2: 1.1284 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 1.1355 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5345 Target 2: 1.5150 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.5385 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.45 Target 2: 119.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74 Daily control level: 120.35 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9660 Target 2: 0.9495 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9645 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3135 Target 2: 1.2940 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.2900 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7325 Target 2: 0.7160 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.7380 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1189.45 Target 2: 1157.15 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.69 Daily control level: 1136.50 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH114102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 45.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.84 Daily control level: 50.55 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.10.2015 The countdown to the October 27-28 Federal Reserve Meeting has begun. However, for those in the FOMC who wanted to see an uptick in the United States economy, the data continues to be depressing. Yesterday afternoon’s economic data from across the Atlantic missed both the market and analyst expectations by a wide mark with both the retail and PPI numbers reporting much lower than expected. With respect consumer spending, the Core Retail Sales was expected to report a contraction to -0.1% but in reality the actual that was released was published as -0.3%. The Retail Sales number which also includes automobiles, the expectation that there would be an increase to 0.2%, however, the report published by the Census Bureau indicated that consumer spending had only increased by 0.1%. The news data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with regards to the PPI was much worse. The Core Producer Price Index which excludes, food, energy and trade was expected to be reported as a small increase to 0.1%, however, the release was reported as a very disappointing -0.3%. The PPI number was no better with the expected decline to -0.2% being obliterated by an actual of -0.5%. The Federal Reserve will be hoping that it will have better news data this afternoon on both the jobs and inflation front with the weekly Unemployment Claims and both the CPI and Core CPI data. The case for increasing interest rates this year, continues to wane and now seems impossible that we will see a hike in October and improbable that the FOMC moves in December. This view has been reinforced by two Federal Reserve Governors urging patience with respect to the timing of the first rate increase. The Governors in question being Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo. Brainard on Tuesday even went as far to say that the risk of moving prematurely was greater than the risk delaying the first increase. With the Federal Reserve unable to find a consensus on the timing of an interest rate increase it would surmise to say the markets views of pricing in of a rate increase in Q2 of 2016 would make good sense. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1565 Target 2: 1.1380 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 1.1355 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5585 Target 2: 1.5370 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.5200 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 119.55 Target 2: 118.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74 Daily control level: 120.35 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9675 Target 2: 0.9405 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.9645 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3040 Target 2: 1.2830 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.2900 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7380 Target 2: 0.7210 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7380 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1200.00 Target 2: 1167.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.40 Daily control level: 1163.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH115102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 48.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80 Daily control level: 48.85 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.10.2015 Wednesday’s rather disappointing US, Retail Sales, and PPI numbers had the effect of sending the US Dollar lower as traders and investors priced out the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing its Fed Funds interest rate at the October or December meetings. Although the possibility of an October decision to increase interest rates remains highly unlikely, yesterday’s inflation and jobs data increased the prospect of Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee moving on rates in December. According to data released on Thursday, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, as expected, reached -0.2%. However, there was positive news with respect to Core CPI number which excludes Food and Energy, increased to 0.2%. On the job front, the Department of Labor published some very positive news with Unemployment Claims dropping to 255,000. The prior number stood 262,000 and the market had expected an increase to 262,000. The positive news on the inflation and job front had the effect of reversing the previous bearish sentiment for the US Dollar. Traders from just one afternoon of positive data realigned themselves to the possibility that a December rate hike had increased. The American economy is, of course, monitored and discussed more than any other major developed market. The last two days market data only goes to highlight the importance of the finances of this nation. Even though interest rates have remained at record lows for a very long time, growth in the US economy has failed to take off. A rise in interest rates is, of course, inevitable and many analysts and market participants are pushing for this to happen now so that the US economy can get over what has become a psychological barrier. The United States, very much like the Japanese and European Union economies has changed over the past twenty or so years. Technological has not only transformed how we work but also changed what we produce. Demographics are also having a huge impact with populations becoming older combined with a falling unemployment rate, the need to have such rigid targets for inflation, growth, and employment now look redundant. There does seem from the outside a degree of excessive resistance by the FOMC in increasing interest rates. Many have said that the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen has become a hostage to the data and is unable to act. However, the responsibility in the hands of the FOMC is, however, enormous. Not only must the decision makers take the correct action but also more importantly, avoid taking the wrong action. If interest rates are prematurely raised in December, the shock to the market and the real economy will be tangible if the FOMC then has to reverse its decision, as was the case of Sweden, Norway and Canada where a hawkish stance on interest rates had to be abandoned due to a deteriorating domestic economy. The understandably cautious stance taken by the FOMC continues to point to an interest rate increase in the spring of 2016. That is unless wage inflation begins to increase excessively. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1480 Target 2: 1.1290 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 1.1355 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5560 Target 2: 1.5340 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5200 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 119.65 Target 2: 118.15 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76 Daily control level: 120.35 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9580 Target 2: 0.9415 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9645 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.2965 Target 2: 1.2825 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.2950 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7415 Target 2: 0.7235 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7365 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1198.00 Target 2: 1165.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.36 Daily control level: 1163.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH116102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 45.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.82 Daily control level: 45.75 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.10.2015 This morning’s news that Chinese growth data continues to decline has somewhat overshadowed the start of an official and high-profile visit by the Chinese President to the United Kingdom. With growth rates exceeding 6%, most countries in the West would look with considerable envy at first glance what appears to be the very healthy growth numbers. However, this morning’s announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics that Chinese quarterly GDP had dropped from 7.0% to 6.9% would be weighing on the mind of President Xi Jinping during his meetings with British Prime Minister David Cameron. There was an expectation that that this morning’s Gross Domestic Product release would be lower than July’s release. However, the decline was less than the 6.8% that the market had expected. This had the effect of limiting the decline in Asia equity markets such as the Shanghai Composite, Hong King Hang Seng and Japanese Nikkei Index. The drop off in growth has significance from an emotional standpoint in that the drop beneath 7.0% takes Chinses GDP to levels last seen at the beginning of 2009. This follows a downgrading of 2014 from 7.4% to 7.3% which is the lowest level of GDP for 25 years. For 2015, the Chinese Governments growth target is in the region of 7%. Although, in comparison to the rest of the world, growth numbers in the region of 7% are still very impressive, there was many who feared that the Chinese economy risked a hard landing. That the decline was less than expected does lend itself to the view that the action taken by the Chinese Government to limit the impact of the recent slowdown will avert the risk of this hard landing taking place. The Chinese Government, the Central Bank and Financial Regulators still have to address the big issues of ever increasing non-performing loans, industrial overcapacity and a lack of demand from the outside world for domestic produce. Although this morning’s GDP number would have given both Chinese Government and the markets much encouragement there is still concern that the growth number could slip to 6.5%. If such a scenario was to play out the impact on jobs would be both measurable and painful. The Chinese Government has already embarked on an aggressive program of stimulus. However, the benefit so far would seem to be one of delaying the inevitable much steeper slowdown. The question many now are asking is what more can the Chinese authorities do in terms of stimulus and would further and more aggressive action bring the level of GDP back above 7%. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1445 Target 2: 1.1260 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 1.1395 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5545 Target 2: 1.5330 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.5410 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.10 Target 2: 118.60 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75 Daily control level: 120.35 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9600 Target 2: 0.9345 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9555 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH119102051.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3010 Target 2: 1.2795 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.2950 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7415 Target 2: 0.7235 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7365 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1192.80 Target 2: 1160.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.32 Daily control level: 1185.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH119102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 46.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.84 Daily control level: 45.75 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.10.2015 This week, there will be a plethora of Central Bankers commenting. However, with the ECB road show heading to Malta, the focus this week will be on this Thursday’s press conference. The European Central Bank, President, Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues on the Governing Council will hold their scheduled policy meeting on October 21st to 22nd against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty over the timing of a the United States, Federal Funds increase. There has over the past few months, been increasing speculation that the ECB will expand its current large stimulus program Eurozone economies continue to struggle. The problems facing Greece have for now been discreetly brushed under the carpet and a German industrial giant in the form of Volkswagen has now been hit by a major scandal which could damage the German economy. Furthermore, with Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny stating that CPI data is “clearly” below target, the prospect of a QE2 program would seemingly look more and more inevitable. There has been chatter amongst analyst that Light Sweet Crude has put in a bottom and would soon be trading above its 200 period’s daily moving average. Crude, however, has failed to make any headway above its major daily averages and with the US50.00 per barrel area offering stiff resistance, the view that higher Oil prices in the medium term will bring inflation back on track is rather premature and unproven. Much like their colleagues across the English Channel at the Bank of England and further afield at the United States Federal Reserve, the Central Bankers at the ECB are very much dependent on the data. As the data has yet to confirm that Euroland has returned to sustainable growth, the prospect of the ECB extending the duration of the current QE program past September 2016 or increasing the size of the assets to be purchased becomes a possibility. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1415 Target 2: 1.1240 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 1.1380 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5565 Target 2: 1.5360 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.5410 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.15 Target 2: 118.80 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70 Daily control level: 120.35 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9645 Target 2: 0.9485 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.9495 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3120 Target 2: 1.2910 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.2900 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7330 Target 2: 0.7160 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.7365 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1186.00 Target 2: 1155.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.66 Daily control level: 1178.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH120102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.50 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85 Daily control level: 45.75 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.10.2015 The Canadian Liberal Party has been elected to power on an anti-austerity programme. With Greece having elected the leftist SYRIZA Party to power and with the British Labour Party also electing a traditional leftist leader in the shape of Jeremy Corbin, it would appear that there is a groundswell of opinion forming in many developed countries that reject the accepted mantra that austerity is the only medicine that can bring sustainable growth and jobs. The real test for global populist left-leaning movements will happen later this year when the Spanish public vote in a general election that takes place on December 20. The fear within the corridors of European power that are located in Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin is that the charismatic leader of Podemos, Mr Pablo Iglesias could cause enough damage to the traditional Spanish political parties that a seismic shock that is centred in Madrid ripples across the whole of the European Union. After ten years of rule by the Conservatives, the citizens of Canada decided that a change was needed. This change was made with the young and charismatic leader of the Liberal Party Mr Justin Trudeau sweeping to power with a 54% landslide victory. Mr Trudeau who comes from a political dynasty is the son of the former Prime Minister has vowed to increase public spending and invest in infrastructure as part of a plan to boost demand and growth in what has been a flagging economy. With respect to taxation, the Liberal Party manifesto has identified wealth inequality as an issue and plan to address this problem by increasing taxes on the wealthy and reducing them on the middle classes. The scale of the victory gives the Liberal Party a strong mandate. Governments are not known to be good at spending public money. This new Canadian experiment that promises fiscal stimulus will be watched closely by other developed nations. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1435 Target 2: 1.1260 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 1.1300 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5540 Target 2: 1.5340 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.5410 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.15 Target 2: 118.80 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70 Daily control level: 119.40 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9640 Target 2: 0.9480 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081 Daily control level: 0.9495 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3080 Target 2: 1.2875 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.2900 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7340 Target 2: 0.7175 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084 Daily control level: 0.7310 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1191.50 Target 2: 1160.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.05 Daily control level: 1167.15 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH121102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 47.70 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.76 Daily control level: 45.75 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.10.2015 The European Central Bank roadshow hits Valetta, Malta today. This latest ECB meeting and press conference will take place against a backdrop of increasing speculation that the President of the ECB, Mr. Mario will announce further stimulus measures. Sluggish German manufacturing and export data has caused concern, however, this has been discounted by the German Economy Ministry that views these disappointing readings as being due to seasonal factors. The main issue for the ECB, of course, is the outlook for Euro-Zone inflation. The recent dip of Euro-Area inflation to -0.1% has coincided with what seems to be an overly optimistic outlook expectation that inflation will reach 1.7% by Q4 in 2017. The other main concern is what Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee of the Federal Reserve decide to do with respect to interest rate increases. It would seem fairly obvious that the ECB would want to wait for the FOMC to either move first or at least offer further clarity on its future monetary policy. Only then will the ECB take further measures. The fear being that an ECB decision to increase stimulus will not have any significant impact if this takes place prior to the Federal Reserve moving on rates. The consensus for today’s press conference is that the ECB will not announce any changes to current policy. However, it would be likely that the downside risks will be emphasized in what should be a dovish press conference. This would be line with comments made by other members of the ECB board. The ECB does have additional tools that it can implement and Mario Draghi has informed the markets that the Central Bank will do whatever it takes to bring back growth and inflation to the Euro-Area. These measures could include extending the duration of the current programme or expanding the scope of asset purchases. Although such move would be in line with the ECB mandate the German Bundesbank may offer some resistance to such a move as it would question why would more QE work? If, as it is expected the ECB announces that no further measure will be taken today, it is clear that this is not the end of this story. The ECB will leave the door ajar for further stimulus. It is to be expected that Mario Draghi and fellow board members will do their best to guide the market and talk down the value of the Euro. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1415 Target 2: 1.1260 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080 Daily control level: 1.1300 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5515 Target 2: 1.5315 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.5410 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 120.50 Target 2: 119.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60 Daily control level: 119.40 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9665 Target 2: 0.9520 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076 Daily control level: 0.9525 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3245 Target 2: 1.3025 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111 Daily control level: 1.2935 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7295 Target 2: 0.7120 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.7240 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1182.75 Target 2: 1152.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.49 Daily control level: 1180.75 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12210.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 47.50 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.72 Daily control level: 47.00 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.10.2015 Yesterday afternoon, the ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi surprised the markets by the extremely dovish tone of the scheduled press conference that took place in Valetta, Malta. As expected the ECB did not cut its key benchmark interest rate from the current 0.05% level. However, following on from comments made over the summer, that the ECB will do what it takes to get the Euro-Zones economy back on track, the announcement that the European Central Bank will now “re-examine” its Euro 1 trillion quantitative easing stimulus programme at the December meeting sent the Euro crashing against the US Dollar. Draghi said during the press conference that “The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December meeting.” It would now appear that almost everything will be considered as a policy tool, that can introduce inflation and sustainable growth back into the Euro-Areas flagging economies. By reading between the lines that ECB Governing Council must have some good insight from the United States Federal Reserve that it will not act on US interest rates before December. If this is the case and with the US Dollar continuing to depreciate in value, the ECB felt had to act now. Yesterday’s comments can be seen as a passing shot across the bows of the market. The threat to expand European QE programme should see the markets now price this event into their forward outlook. The reason why the ECB took this action now is due to the realisation that the current QE programme is not having the desired effect of boosting the Euro-Area. Although the current trend amongst the Euro-Zone economies is positive, the issue of soft inflation data continues to be a concern to Mario Draghi and his colleagues. Furthermore, the recent economic problems that are facing China and the Emerging Market has only added to the ECB’s worries as this could have an impact down the line on European economies. The question many economist and analyst will of course ask is will an aggressive expansion of the ECB’s stimulus programme only squander more tax payers money? The problem with QE is that it is not a one shot cure for an economy that is facing issues of chronic low inflation and stagnant growth. One only needs to look at older stimulus programmes that have been adopted by the United States and Japan. The Bank of Japan and the FOMC have continuously stimulated their economies by applying further QE. The effect of adding further QE acts as a booster to the medicine that has already been administered. A failure to boost QE will see the positive effect of such a programme wear-off. In this context and with a degree of hindsight it was fairly obvious that the ECB would have to expand its programme. This brings us to some more questions. 1. Are the major global economies now addicted to a diet of quantitative easing? 2. Furthermore, will we ever see the economies of the United States, Euro-Area and Japan ever move back to a situation which can be described as normal or is this the new normal? Only time has the answer to these questions EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1200 Target 2: 1.1015 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 1.1385 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5495 Target 2: 1.5290 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.5505 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.30 Target 2: 120.05 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64 Daily control level: 119.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9810 Target 2: 0.9650 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082 Daily control level: 0.9580 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3195 Target 2: 1.2980 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 1.2935 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7295 Target 2: 0.7120 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7180 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1190.00 Target 2: 1161.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46 Daily control level: 1162.35 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12310.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.69 Daily control level: 46.25 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.10.2015 This morning at 10:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate number. This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month. The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date. Due to the size and breadth of this report the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond. The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity. Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union. The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase. The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.1, as compared to the previous number of 108.5. A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure. The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth. As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1100 Target 2: 1.0910 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094 Daily control level: 1.1140 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5410 Target 2: 1.5200 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.5420 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 122.15 Target 2: 120.75 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70 Daily control level: 120.20 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9875 Target 2: 0.9715 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3230 Target 2: 1.3055 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112 Daily control level: 1.3040 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7295 Target 2: 0.7100 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086 Daily control level: 0.7180 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1177.00 Target 2: 1148.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.65 Daily control level: 1158.75 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH126102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 46.00 Target 2: 44.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56 Daily control level: 45.90 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.10.2015 Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting will not be accompanied by a press conference. However, we will get from the FOMC a monetary statement. The lack of a press conference should discount the possibility of the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen announcing a rise in interest rates. Although a December rate move is not priced in by the markets, it would be expected that the Federal Reserve would like to keep its options open. The FOMC’s need for flexibility could, therefore, see the committee give the latest monetary policy statement a somewhat hawkish slant. The outcome of Wednesday’s meeting could, therefore, see the Federal Reserve announce a US Dollar supportive statement. Following the European Central Banks extremely dovish statement we have seen the Euro put a ceiling at its recent highs. Therefore, a statement by the FOMC that is seen by the markets as hawkish could potentially see the US Dollar experience a broad rally. The Federal Reserve is not the only Central Bank that is due to meet during this week. The Bank of Japan will add to the debate when it meets on October 30. The Bank of Japan could decide to increase its QE programme, however, there is also a possibility that the Japanese Government decides to adjust its fiscal policy. With so much news out during this coming week, combined with the expectation that the Fed will attempt to push the hawkish line in its monetary statement, there is potential for USDJPY to break above an area of resistance around the 121 level which ties in with a potential break above the 200 period daily moving average. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1200 Target 2: 1.0950 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092 Daily control level: 1.1000 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5450 Target 2: 1.5250 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.5380 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.70 Target 2: 120.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70 Daily control level: 121.10 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9900 Target 2: 0.9745 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082 Daily control level: 0.9750 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3270 Target 2: 1.3050 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.3120 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7325 Target 2: 0.7160 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082 Daily control level: 0.7200 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1177.00 Target 2: 1148.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.30 Daily control level: 1158.75 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH12710.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 45.50 Target 2: 42.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 45.62 Daily control level: 45.20 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jecilos Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 How correct is this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.10.2015 According to latest estimates, there is only a 4% chance that the United States Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this evening. The market also sees a low likelihood that an increase in the Federal Funds rate will happen in December with this scenario priced into expectations by 25%. The chances of a March hike increases notably with the market pricing in this expectation by 50%. With the market making its own mind on the timing of the first interest-rate increase and if we discount anything happening today, it is, therefore, important to take a close look at the language of the report. Especially as we have been receiving conflicting messages from the FOMC with some Governors wanting to see a rate increase to happen this year and others want it to happen in 2016. The Federal Reserve has what is known as a dual-mandate which is to look after interest rates and employment. However over recent times the FOMC has begun to take into account issues that are external to the US economy. This can now be considered as the third mandate. The question vexing many market analysts and no doubt the decision makers on the FOMC is should the Federal Reserve just stick to its dual mandates or is it right to look at the external factors? In this modern, interconnected global economy, the FOMC has no choice but to take into external factors when it considers its monetary policy. Furthermore, it is fairly obvious that all central banks are now actively briefing one another and where possible planning together so as to solve the problems facing the global economy. The FOMC is obviously treading very carefully as it plans its next move with China, the Emerging Markets and Europe being of high consideration. China for the past two decades has seen its economy expand at a phenomenal pace. However during 2015 the Chinese economy has grown at its slowest pace in 25 years. The Chinese Government and Central Bank have taken steps to cushion the country’s economy from the first major contraction since the open door policy was brought into being. The steps taken include a devaluation of this country’s currency and a cut in the rate of interest by 25 bp. Europe is also high in the FOMC’s thinking. The European Central Bank President Mr. Mario Draghi has said that the ECB’s QE programme could be extended. We now have a scenario of China / EU easing happening at a time when US rates will increase. The fallout from this is a strengthening US Dollar and its negatives implication for US competitiveness on the global markets. Back to the dual mandate, the US economy and the employment outlook. The jobless numbers calculated on a three-month average have been good but not impressive. There are two more payroll numbers to be released before the meeting in December together with inflation and manufacturing data. The Federal Reserve, therefore, does have some time to look at the incoming data. The two most recent job numbers were below expectation. However, the FOMC could be tempted to act if it sees the next two NFP releases reach levels above 200,000. Some would say that the FOMC has been overly cautious as it waits for all the boxes to be ticked before it moves ahead and tightens its monetary stance by increasing interest rates. The problem for Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee is that whatever they do would is bound to displease someone. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1130 Target 2: 1.0950 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 1.1080 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5400 Target 2: 1.5205 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 1.5380 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.00 Target 2: 119.70 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.74 Daily control level: 121.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFH1281020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9940 Target 2: 0.9785 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077 Daily control level: 0.9800 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3375 Target 2: 1.3155 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.3120 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7280 Target 2: 0.7115 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7255 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GOLDH128102015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1180.00 Target 2: 1152.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.08 Daily control level: 1160.60 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/OILUSDH1281020151.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 45.00 Target 2: 42.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44 Daily control level: 45.20 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted October 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.10.2015 The zero interest rate will last for at least month and a half, with no changes in the current rate, the Federal Reserve statement asserted last night. In their view, economic conditions have not altered significantly leaving the possibility for the hawkish move as soon as this December’s meeting. As the investors had expected the Federal Reserve to remain dormant regarding the interest rate well until next year, the reference to the next meeting came as a surprise, sending the EURUSD pair to the new lows sharply. The pair reached below 1.0900 mark within the first hour of the statement release, being the EURUSD two and a half month low. The US Dollar strengthened further, with the index yesterday’s high at 97.875, gaining more than 270 pips just within a week. The line that was saying the global economic and financial developments “may restrain economic activities somewhat” was this time removed from the statement. It was also added that employment conditions are recovering at a satisfactory pace with “labour market indicators, on balance, show that underutilization of labour resources has diminished since early this year”. Nevertheless, as the economy expanding at the “moderate pace”, there are still no improvements in the inflation rate outlook, with the inflation continue to run well below the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. It was commented however that the indicator underperformance is due to the low energy prices and the prices of non-energy imports. The votes came 9 to 1 with Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey M. Lacker expressed his view in favour of the interest rate hike once again. The investors were expecting the next interest rate hike not earlier than the March 2016, with most views have now shifted towards the late January. “The Fed statement was the first since 1999 in which policymakers pointed to a possible rate increase at the next meeting”, Michael Feroli, a previously economist at the US Central Bank, now at JPMorgan, commented to Reuters. The Federal Reserve will now have some time to look at several important data before the next meeting on 15-16 December. Even though the two recent NFP releases were below expectations, FOMC could be tempted to act these numbers will improve before the middle of December. The Bank will also closely observe the economic conditions outside the United States. The weakened markets such as China and Japan seeing the capital outflows to the more profitable venues, pushing the US dollar higher. The likely additional quantitative easing measures in Europe, announced last week, are having similar consequences to the world’s major reserve currency. Stronger Dollar, therefore, could hurt the domestic exporters, and could make it even harder to reach the desired inflation target. It also sets additional obstacles for the jobs market to improve. That might explain why the Fed might prefer to test waters and leave the door open, without making any solid commitments ate the moment. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1020 Target 2: 1.0830 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 1.1080 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5370 Target 2: 1.5167 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.5380 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.90 Target 2: 120.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.812 Daily control level: 121.25 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.0060 Target 2: 0.9820 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 0.9800 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3320 Target 2: 1.3070 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127 Daily control level: 1.3275 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7200 Target 2: 0.7000 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7300 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1172.00 Target 2: 1140.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95 Daily control level: 1180.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2910OILUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.00 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57 Daily control level: 46.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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