alayoua Posted March 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013 Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data. Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/ Forex Economic Calendar : 2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan) 2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) 2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Forex News : 2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ... 2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900 2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness 2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00 EURUSD : HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 04:55 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054 Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941 --------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 04:55 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022 Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834 --------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 04:56 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case. Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07 Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013 Dimitriadis presents a resolution process to the Cypriot Parliament The Cypriot Central Bank governor Panicós Dimitriadis has announced a bank restructuring plan that will allow banks to reopen on Tuesday. Dimitriadis said on Thursday that the bill would protect bank deposits up to €100K according to sources. Earlier, the Popular bank allowed costumers to withdrawal cash but limited by individual to 260 euros a day. Bloomberg has published that the bill has the approval of the Troika, however, the Eurogroup is weighing the close of the Cyprus Popular bank and the bank of Cyprus. With European data disappointing and U.S. economic data surprising to the upside investors have returned to selling euros. Not only has tail risk in the Eurozone returned with the ECB threatening to pull support from Cyprus if an agreement is not reached by Monday but the outlook for growth has taken a turn for the worse, compounding the euro's problems. Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted at a faster pace in the month of March with the Eurozone PMI Composite index dropping to 46.5 from 47.9. While this is not the lowest reading that we have seen in the past 6 months, the cracks in Germany are reappearing. The Eurozone's largest economy is no longer able to provide umbrella support for the rest of the region and is now weakening alongside France, Italy and Spain. Tomorrow's German IFO report will most likely tell the same story of weakness in the Eurozone economy. The deteriorating growth outlook and risks posed by Cyprus and Italy (lets not forget about the unresolved elections) makes the euro less attractive than the dollar and should continue to add pressure on the currency. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22032013/ Forex Economic Calendar : 2013-03-22 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Cyprus Parliament Vote on Banking Restructuring, Wealth Fund Bill 2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Mar) 2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Expectations (Mar) 2013-03-22 14:00 GMT | Belgium. Leading Indicator (Mar) Forex News : 2013-03-22 05:59 GMT | EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid 2013-03-22 05:51 GMT | USD/JPY breaks down to yesterday's 94.50 lows 2013-03-22 05:43 GMT | Cyprus mission in Russia fails 2013-03-22 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD looking at 1.5200 asks EURUSD : HIGH 1.29244 LOW 1.28882 BID 1.28994 ASK 1.28999 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 41:37 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2925 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.2942 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.2960 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further devaluation is limited to the supportive barrier at 1.2879 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as new step of downtrend expansion, targeting 1.2861 (S2) and 1.2844 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2925, 1.2942, 1.2960 Support Levels: 1.2879, 1.2861, 1.2844 ------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.51945 LOW 1.5165 BID 1.51878 ASK 1.51888 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 41:38 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: A bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.5208 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.5234 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 1.5156 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5127 (S2) and 1.5100 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5260 Support Levels: 1.5156, 1.5127, 1.5100 ---------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 95.132 LOW 94.545 BID 94.683 ASK 94.688 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 41:39 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the 95.14 (R1) resistance level. Violation here would suggest next intraday targets at 95.34 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 94.41 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 94.22 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 94.02 (S3) Resistance Levels: 95.14, 95.34, 95.55 Support Levels: 94.41, 94.22, 94.02 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Software | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013 Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities Already finished Eurogroup and FMI press conference, attending IMF chief Christine Lagarde, Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, EU's commissioner for economic affairs Olli Rehn, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Jorg Asmussen, and ESM managing director Klaus Regling, the Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities “on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme,” the official Eurogroup statement reads. The agreement comes from all sides of the table, including all Euro area members states, along with the ECB, the IMF, and the ESM, also known as Troika. No further Cyprus parliament voting will be needed as the levy part of the deal has been “avoided”, EU chairman said, remarking “should be no doubts about that,” referring to any kind of discount on deposits below insured € 100k accounts. Main focus on the deal has been reduced to the banking sector, also explained Mr Dijsselbloem, where "solution focuses on troubled banks," and the insured deposits. Among other measures, solution passes through a “split in a good and a bad bank”, said EU's chairman, with the “bad” one “gone” in some uncertain future time. Laiki Bank, the “bad” bank, “will ultimately disappear," said IMF's Lagarde. Bank of Cyprus would be the “good” one, where under € 100k secured deposits would be transferred. Asked if there is any chance the “bad bank” survives, Dijsselbloem said there could be a small part left, but that only time could tell. For the amount of haircuts in unsecured deposits, no concrete answers were also given, saying "numbers will have to be calculated," noted Dijsselbloem, adding: "can't put a number on that yet." Olli Rehn also referred to upcoming EU memorandum by mid April as a source for further answers. When questioned if all this agreement was mainly just to “buy some time,” EU commissioner denied it.-https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25032013/ Forex Economic Calendar : N/A | United States. Fed's William Dudley speech 2013-03-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Feb) 2013-03-25 17:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech 2013-03-25 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (YoY) (Feb) Forex News : 2013-03-25 06:24 GMT | EUR/USD still bearish despite the good news - UBS 2013-03-25 04:01 GMT | Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities 2013-03-25 01:42 GMT | EUR/JPY soars on Cyprus tentative deal 2013-03-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD holds below 1.0460 -------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30482 LOW 1.29414 BID 1.30342 ASK 1.30348 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 35:13 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: The pair accelerates on the upside and determined positive market sentiment. If it manages to climb above the resistance level at 1.3049 (R1) there is a chance for a move towards to next targets at 1.3065 (R2) and 1.3081 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, pair looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3010 (S1). Below here locates initial targets at 1.2993 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3065, 1.3081 Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2993, 1.2975 -------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52598 LOW 1.52233 BID 1.52434 ASK 1.52445 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 35:13 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5260 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and might expose our next targets at 1.5291 (R2) and 1.5322 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5208 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5177 (S2) and 1.5144 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5260, 1.5291, 1.5322 Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5177, 1.5144 ------------------------------------ USDJPY : HIGH 94.962 LOW 94.354 BID 94.657 ASK 94.664 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08 : 35:14 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus stays at 94.97 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 95.20 (R2) and 95.43 (R3). Downwards scenario: Progress below the initial support level at 94.48 (S1) might trigger protective orders and stopped current consolidation development. Our intraday targets are seen at 94.25 (S2) and 94.01 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.97, 95.20, 95.43 Support Levels: 94.48, 94.25, 94.01 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Software | Free Forex Demo Account | Best Forex Broker | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013 Cypriot central bank to meet tonight on capital controls In an effort to avoid the money's outflow, the Cypriot central bank will meet tonight in an extraordinary session to introduce capital restrictions according to the Cyprus' president Anastasiades. The president also said, in a recent speech, the capital controls will be a temporary measure but difficult measures will be implemented in the following days. Meanwhile, Cypriot banks will open on Tuesday except Bank of Cyprus and Laiki. Earlier on the day, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, affirmed that the Cypriot plan would be used as template for another countries in the eurozone. Investors were afraid for more levys and capital restrictions across the union. Renewed jitters on Cyprus and fears of contagion to other indebted sovereigns in the bloc periphery have been weighting on EUR after the increased vulnerability seen in Cypriot deposits. And speaking of anti-climaxes, Cyprus appears to have reached an agreement to avoid bankruptcy but, whilst it protects savers with less than €100,000 on account in Cypriot banks, bond holders in Laiki Bank will lose their funds and depositors with more than €100,000 in Laiki will lose a substantial part of those funds. The accounts will be frozen while the bank is closed down and most of its debt transferred to Bank of Cyprus and that could result in larger investors losing up to 90% of their funds. That isn’t going to make Cyprus popular with their Russian and Eastern European tax avoiders and it won’t make Europe popular with Russia either. That’s could be a problem because Russia controls a massive amount of the energy used by Europe. If Cyprus and the EU wanted to make enemies, other than invading Russia, they couldn’t have hatched a better plan. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-26-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-03-26 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) 2013-03-26 12:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Feb) 2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Mar) 2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) FOREX NEWS : 2013-03-26 05:51 GMT | AUD/USD unchanged as RBS Stevens speech a non event 2013-03-26 05:19 GMT | EUR/USD down to 1.2660 now and option 2013-03-26 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY higher on Kuroda's promises; Again 2013-03-26 01:32 GMT | GBP/JPY recovers ground as Kuroda speaks MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis ------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/18.gif Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative medium-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.2894 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.2919 (R2) and 1.2945 (R3) Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2829 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.2806 (S2) and 1.2784 (S3) as possible intraday targets. Resistance Levels: 1.2894, 1.2919, 1.2945 Support Levels: 1.2829, 1.2806, 1.278 ---------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/23.gif Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh low yesterday however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bullish side on the short-term perspective. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.5208 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.5234 (R2) and last one at 1.5261 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish further gains might lead to the price depreciation. Next immediate support could be found at 1.5142 (S1). Break here is required to open route towards to our targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5093 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5261 Support Levels: 1.5142, 1.5118, 1.5093 -------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/33.gif Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.45 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 94.67 (R2) and 94.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 93.86 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 93.64 (S2) and 93.43 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 94.45, 94.67, 94.90 Support Levels: 93.86, 93.64, 93.43 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013 European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks. MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected … deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in." Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading. Wall Street rises despite bad US data and Cyprus. The US stocks market traded higher on Tuesday as market didn't pay much attention to the lower-than-expected US consumer confidence but better-than-expected home prices. The Dow surged to new all-time high. The Dow Jones advaced 111.90 points or 0.77% to close at 14,559.65. The S&P 500 added 12.08 points or 0.78% to end the day at 1,563.77. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 17.18 points or 0.53% to finish at 3,252.48. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-27-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-03-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) 2013-03-27 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Confidence (Mar) 2013-03-27 12:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index 2013-03-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY) FOREX NEWS : 2013-03-27 07:24 GMT | EUR/USD muted after German data 2013-03-27 06:25 GMT | Time to build a short position in JPY again – RBS 2013-03-27 04:28 GMT | USD/JPY climbs above 94.80 helped by USD buying across the board 2013-03-27 03:27 GMT | NZD/USD, exporters keen buyers of NZD dips – BNZ MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/19.gif Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.2868 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.2890 (R2) onto 1.2912 (R3). Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Key support level lie at 1.2837 (S1), below here opens a route towards to our initial targets at 1.2815 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2890, 1.2912 Support Levels: 1.2837, 1.2815, 1.2793 http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/25.gif Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSDUpwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5170 (R1), subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5190 (R2) and 1.5210 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: If the price failed to establish further positive bias today, we expect to see retest of our key support level at 1.5147 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5128 (S2) and 1.5 109 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.5170, 1.5190, 1.5210 Support Levels: 1.5147, 1.5128, 1.5109 http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/34.gif Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 94.90 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 95.08 (R2) and 95.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument might retest our next support level at 94.58 (S1) later on today. Market decline below it would create bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 94.40 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.22 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.90, 95.08, 95.25 Support Levels: ….. Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | ECN Broker | Forex Trading Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 28 2013 Capital controls in Cyprus to affect international transactions he Cypriot government has revealed the details of the capital controls it intends to impose on transfers before banks reopen on Thursday. The restrictions are aimed at preventing an outflow of money and are supposed to last seven days. The capital controls, which will affect all accounts regardless of their currency, will involve a ban on taking out sums of money in cash greater than 3000 euros on one trip out of the country and a monthly 5000 euro limit on credit and debit card transactions abroad. Additionally, cashing cheques will be prohibited and savings accounts frozen until their expiry date. Restrictions on ATM withdrawals have not been listed among the capital control measures, even though they currently exist. The financial markets are still mulling over the repercussions of the Cyprus drama and their angst is being fuelled by comments by Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, that the EU sees the Cyprus deal as a template for any further bailouts. i.e. bond holders will lose their fund entirely and larger savers would have some of their funds syphoned off to aid the bailout. That was later denied according to a report on Bloomberg but investors with funds in EU banks are understandably edgy and all eyes will be on the Cypriot withdrawals over the weeks ahead. The fear of a run on European banks and the political pressure that would produce is ever-present and there are many reports about the rise of the German Anti-Euro political party. The Euro remains at the weaker end of its range in anticipation of those events http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-28-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-03-28 07:00 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Mar) 2013-03-28 12:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) 2013-03-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jan) 2013-03-28 23:30 GMT | Japan. Unemployment Rate (Feb) FOREX NEWS : 2013-03-28 02:23 GMT | AUD/USD turns bearish as stocks decline in Asia 2013-03-28 02:22 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 94.10 lows post-Kuroda 2013-03-28 02:03 GMT | New Zealand: M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb): 6.6% vs 6.4% 2013-03-28 01:40 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps pushing below 1.2250 Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/115.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: The low of the 26-03-2013 offers an important resistive level at 1.2829 (R1). Any penetration above it might shift the balance to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.2859 (R2) and 1.2889 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend evolvement might occur below the immediate support level at 1.2752 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable our next targets at 1.2722 (S2) and 1.2693 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.2829, 1.2859, 1.2889 Support Levels: 1.2752, 1.2722, 1.2693 Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/26.gif Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies above the local high at 1.5149 (R1). If the break occurs here, next attractive level could be exposed at 1.5165 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5181 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.5127 (S1). Loss here would suggest next targets at 1.5110 (S2) and 1.5092 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5149, 1.5165, 1.5181 Support Levels: 1.5127, 1.5110, 1.5092 Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/35.gif Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 94.42 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 94.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Fresh low offers a key support measure at 93.98 (S1). Decline below it would enable next targets located at 93.83 (S2) and 93.69 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.27, 94.42, 94.58 Support Levels: 93.98, 93.83, 93.69 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platform | ECN Broker Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted March 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 29 2013 The Cyprus moment The euro zone could be slipping into a new period of turbulence even before it has had a chance to return to growth. And yet the improvement previously discussed in these pages has been confirmed: borrowing conditions for governments have improved and some, such as Ireland, have made a successful return to the markets. Ratings on sovereign debt have stabilised. One sign of an easing of financial tensions in the zone is that the internal balances in the Eurosystem, as reflected in Target 2 balances, have narrowed to a degree. These are encouraging but fragile signs that could be compromised by the difficulties in managing the Cypriot crisis or by the political uncertainty in Italy. Is there a new European crisis brewing in Cyprus? The country’s banking system needs to be recapitalised, failing which the European Central Bank (ECB) – which is not responsible for solvency issues – could cease to provide support. However, given the size of the banking sector (seven times GDP) the sums in play by far exceed the country’s repayment capacity. The EUR 17bn of total needs (of which EUR 10bn for banks) account for one year’s GDP for Cyprus, which is only the 26th biggest economy in European Union. A loan of this amount from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) would push government debt up to the unsustainable level of around 200% of GDP. The main risk would then be the snuffing out of the Cypriot economy for many years, with no certainty that any financial aid would in fact be repaid. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29032013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Feb) 2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) 2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Spending (Feb) 2013-03-29 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) FOREX NEWS : 2013-03-29 07:07 GMT | EUR/USD hovering around 1.2800 2013-03-29 06:00 GMT | GBP/USD holding around 1.5200 2013-03-29 05:36 GMT | Japan data disappoints; Yen advances a bit 2013-03-29 03:53 GMT | EUR/JPY gravitating around 120.70 ---------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.28367 LOW 1.27934 BID 1.28082 ASK 1.28086 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 09 : 14:14 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.2836 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.2859 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.2884 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand price could retest our next support level at 1.2787 (S1) later on today. Successful penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2764 (S2) and 1.2740 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2836, 1.2859, 1.2884 Support Levels: 1.2787, 1.2764, 1.2740 -------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52187 LOW 1.5177 BID 1.51814 ASK 1.51827 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 09 : 14:15 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the local high of the day - at 1.5218 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5244 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.5167 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.5153 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.5140 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5218, 1.5231, 1.5244 Support Levels: 1.5167, 1.5153, 1.5140 ----------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 94.299 LOW 93.973 BID 94.046 ASK 94.061 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 09 : 14:16 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 94.25 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 94.51 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fractal level accumulation on the 93.95 (S1) zone offers an important technical level. Discounted value of USDJPY might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 93.82 (S2) en route to support at 93.69 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.25, 94.38, 94.51 Support Levels: 93.95, 93.82, 93.69 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 01 2013 US Data, Italian Politics and Holidays While it has been and will continue to be an exceedingly quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with most of the major markets closed for the Easter holidays, there were still have a few pieces of U.S. data released this morning. Personal income rose 1.1% in the month of February while personal spending rose 0.7%. USD/JPY barely reacted to the news because there's no one trading today but both numbers were better than expected and consistent with a continued recovery in the U.S. economy. The stronger increase in incomes versus spending is also a healthy trend that makes the light at the end of the tunnel shine slightly brighter for the Federal Reserve. The final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers will be released later this morning but no revisions are expected and so the data should be a nonevent for the U.S. dollar. Now that the situation in Cyprus has been pacified, the focus in Europe has shifted back to Italy where there were rumors that Berlusconi is open to a coalition with Bersani. He has since denied this possibility, saying instead that a grand coalition with an agreement on program reforms is the only acceptable option. Recent polls suggest that 50% of Italians are ready to vote again. - https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb) 2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.ISM Prices Paid (Mar) 2013-04-01 22:30 GMT | AU.AiG Performance of Mfg Index (Mar) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-01 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD offered below 1.28; Italy and Cyprus main focus 2013-04-01 04:06 GMT | GBP/USD, premature to abandon bullish H&S pattern - BBH 2013-04-01 02:59 GMT | AUD/JPY lowest in 2 weeks, holds above 97.50 2013-04-01 01:26 GMT | USD/JPY dips further, 94.00 holds --------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.28129 LOW 1.2771 BID 1.27834 ASK 1.27842 CHANGE -0.25% TIME 08 : 02:10 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher ahead. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.2810 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.2844 (R2) and 1.2866 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.2768 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.2742 (S2) and then 1.2701 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2810, 1.2844, 1.2866 Support Levels: 1.2768, 1.2742, 1.2701 ------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52018 LOW 1.51777 BID 1.51892 ASK 1.51904 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 02:10 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.5207 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5256 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5182 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5161 (S2) and 1.5133 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5207, 1.5231, 1.5256 Support Levels: 1.5182, 1.5161, 1.5133 -------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 94.373 LOW 93.832 BID 93.943 ASK 93.950 CHANGE -0.28% TIME 08 : 02:11 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 94.34 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 94.59 (R2) and 94.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 93.85 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 93.60 (S2) and potentially to 93.34 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.34, 94.59, 94.86 Support Levels: 93.85, 93.60, 93.34 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading Accounts | Currency Converter | Forex School | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 02 2013 Spain will revised down its 2013 GDP forecast to -1.0%; Negotiating new deficit target Spain is discussing with the European union a new 2013 budget deficit target around 6% of the GDP, the current target is 4.5%, according to a Reuters information citing Spanish officials sources. The Spanish government needs to renegotiate a new target as they would revise down the Kingdom of Spain 2013 GDP forecast to -1.0% from the -0.5% expected before. Today's Asia-Pacific session has had a common denominator in the form of a falling USD across the board, and specially against Yen, that has seen a 1-month fresh high printing a low at 92.55 in the USD/JPY pair, something not seen since early March. Strangely enough, Gold has printed fresh session highs at $1604 at the same time. The other main driver of the season has come from Australia and the RBA holding rates at 3%, with scope to ease further if market conditions are met, the statement said. Local share markets traded in a mixed way with Tokyo leading the loses at some point down more than -2%, but last at -0.83%, with Shanghai -0.38%, and Kospi -0.44%, while Australian ASX is up +0.34%, and Hang-Seng +0.10%. As the London open gets closer, after a long 4-day weekend closed for holidays, the USD finds some bids, making EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD to ease a bit, while USD/JPY recovers some ground. European futures markets show a mixed open ahead, with small advances and declines in main equity indexes. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-02 07:43 GMT | Italy. IT Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 2013-04-02 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 2013-04-02 12:00 GMT | Germany. DE Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2013-04-02 14:00 GMT | USA. Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-02 04:51 GMT | EUR/USD adjusts value within bearish context 2013-04-02 03:58 GMT | USD/JPY enters 92.40/75 demand after 92.95 break 2013-04-02 03:46 GMT | AUD/USD higher as RBA on holds 2013-04-02 03:40 GMT | RBA holds rates at 3%; statement more neutral EURUSD : HIGH 1.28775 LOW 1.28399 BID 1.28616 ASK 1.28621 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 01:01 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum and determined medium-term positive bias. Next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.2878 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2892 (R2) and 1.2907 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 1.2844 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 1.2830 (S2) and 1.2815 (S3) as next possible targets. Resistance Levels: 1.2878, 1.2892, 1.2907 Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2830, 1.2815 ------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52584 LOW 1.52183 BID 1.52374 ASK 1.52384 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 01:02 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the local high at 1.5259 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.5269 (R2) and 1.5279 (R3). Downwards scenario: A downside pressure could be maintained if the price penetrates below the key supportive measure at 1.5225 (S1). Clearance here would open way for a price move towards to lower supports at 1.5214 (S2) and 1.5203 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5259, 1.5269, 1.5279 Support Levels: 1.5225, 1.5214, 1.5203 ------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 93.322 LOW 92.565 BID 92.840 ASK 92.845 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:03 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive losses last few days and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 93.03 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to our next targets at 93.30 (R2) and 93.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low at 92.56 (S1) offers a key supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it would suggest next intraday targets at 92.32 (S2) and potentially 92.08 (S3). Resistance Levels: 93.03, 93.30, 93.55 Support Levels: 92.56, 92.32, 92.08 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best ECN Trading Account | Forex Trading Education | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 03 2013 Cyprus FinMin steps down after finalizing bailout deal Cypriot finance minister Michael Sarris submitted his resignation on Tuesday, just after concluding bailout negotiations with Troika officials. Labor minister Haris Georgiadis has been nominated to the post shortly after. According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, other changes in the Cypriot government might follow today. It also suggests that Michael Sarris was replaced due to the Cyprus president Nicos Anastasiades’s dissatisfaction with the way he handled the crisis. As for the bailout deal, it was agreed that Cyprus would receive the first tranche of the aid in May. The fiscal adjustment period has been extended until 2018. The bailout loans will carry interest of 2.5% and repayment, spread over 12 years, is to begin in 10 years time. Michael Sarris also said that it was uncertain when the capital controls could be lifted completely. Popular opinion in Brussels is that the worst outcome for the euro currency union would be if one of the member-states were forced out. On this pretext, the ECB has so far bailed out the banking systems of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. When Cyprus faced a run on its banks two weeks ago, the eurocrats stepped in with a new proposal to shore up reserves: forfeiture of 9.9% on deposits over €100K and 6.7% below that level. This has come to be known as a "bail in." The reaction was immediate and intense. Cypriots took to the streets to protest the anticipated losses and breach of the government's deposit insurance guarantees for amounts under €100K; riot police were deployed. The Russian government was upset it was not consulted and that its citizens' deposits would face even steeper losses. The talking heads lamented the grave precedent that this move would set. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-03-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2013-04-03 08:30 GMT UK. PMI Construction (Mar) 2013-04-03 09:00 GMT EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2013-04-03 13:15 GMT USA. US ADP Employment Change (Mar) 2013-04-03 14:00 GMT USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) FOREX NEWS 2013-04-03 05:54 GMT EUR/USD regains 1.2800 2013-04-03 03:44 GMT Precious metals resume the selling off 2013-04-03 03:24 GMT GBP/JPY barely above 141.00 dragged on Pound weakness 2013-04-03 01:27 GMT GBP/USD breaks into 2-week low; no significant demand until 1.4950/1.50 Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/110.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: market sentiment is shifted to the negative side after the losses provided yesterday however market appreciation is possible above the next resistance at 1.2826 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2844 (R2) and 1.2860 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low at 1.2794 (S1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.2777 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.2761 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2826, 1.2844, 1.2860 Support Levels: 1.2794, 1.2777, 1.2761 Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/25.gif Upwards scenario: GBPUSD broke all supportive means yesterday and determined clear negative bias on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.5109 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.5125 (R2) and 1.5141 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the support at 1.5074 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.5059 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.5043 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5109, 1.5125, 1.5141 Support Levels: 1.5074, 1.5059, 1.5043 Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/32.gif Upwards scenario: Price deviates from its initial downtrend formation on the hourly chart. Local high at 93.67 (R1) is a key technical point on the upside. Penetration above would suggest higher targets at 93.84 (R2) and 93.99 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen at 93.32 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 93.14 (S2) and 92.95 (S3) price levels. Resistance Levels: 93.67, 93.84, 93.99 Support Levels: 93.32, 93.14, 92.95 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 04 2013 IMF will lend 1 billion euros to Cyprus The IMF announced on Wednesday that its contribution to the Cyprus bailout would amount to 1 billion euros. It has also presented the harsh conditions of the aid. These include increases in taxes: the corporate tax is to be raised from 10% to 12.5%, while the income tax from 15% to 30%. Additionally, Cyprus is required to introduce more austerity measures in order to reach a 4% GDP surplus target in 2018. "There will be protection for the most vulnerable groups. The social welfare system will be reviewed to streamline administration costs, minimize the overlap of existing programs, and improve their targeting to ensure that public resources reach those in need," IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. She also added that the funds should be approved by the IMF board at the beginning of next month. The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but given the recent weakness in German economic data and problems in Cyprus, there's speculation that the ECB could lay the foundation for a rate cut. If that were the case, it would be signaled in Mario Draghi's post monetary policy meeting press conference. There are plenty of reasons for why the ECB may be warming to the idea of more stimulus but German stocks have recently climbed to 5 year highs and the EUR has fallen – two factors that help to support the region's economy. That may not be enough to wash away the ECB's concerns but it's a factor in this week's central bank meeting. Either way, we don't expect any optimism from the ECB and pessimism alone could sink the EUR if Draghi even hints that a rate cut is possible. The cracks are beginning to show in Germany and Cyprus could be the first of many weaker southern European nations such as Slovenia to seek emergency funding from the ECB. To preempt some of these difficulties, Draghi may want to ease. When the ECB plans to change monetary policy, they usually like to prepare the market for the move by dropping hints early. However if we are wrong and Draghi sounds calm and unconcerned about the recent deterioration in economic data and the problems in Cyprus and Italy, it would be just what the EUR/USD needs to stage a stronger recovery towards 1.30. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-04-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR N/A Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and press conference 2013-04-04 11:00 GMT UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision 2013-04-04 11:45 GMT EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision 2013-04-04 14:30 GMT USA. Fed's Bernanke Speech FOREX NEWS 2013-04-04 04:50 GMT USD/JPY jumps above 93.5 as BoJ delivers 2013-04-04 04:33 GMT EUR awaits ECB frozen near 1.2850 2013-04-04 02:50 GMT Gold could fall sharply another $200 – RBS 2013-04-04 00:43 GMT AUD/USD higher on better data than expected --------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/114.gif Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.2853 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 1.2869 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 1.2883 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 1.2824 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 1.2807 (S2) and 1.2790 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2826, 1.2844, 1.2860 Support Levels: 1.2794, 1.2777, 1.2761 ---------------- Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/29.gif Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5141 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 1.5158 (R2) and 1.5175 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably declined during the Asian session and further downside extension is protected now by support level at 1.5098 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.5082 (S2) and 1.5065 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5158, 1.5175 Support Levels: 1.5098, 1.5082, 1.5065 ------------- Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/34.gif Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our next resistive mean at 94.37 (R1) next visible targets could be exposed at 94.55 (R2) and 94.72 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: The short oriented traders expected to be in play below the next support level at 93.87 (S1) to confirm downside evolvement. Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to our next targets at 93.68 (S2) and 93.49 (S3). Resistance Levels: 94.37, 94.55, 94.72 Support Levels: 93.87, 93.68, 93.49 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex School | Currency Converter | Best Forex Trading Software | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 05 2013 More Risk From Portugal The euro area has had a rough few weeks: Cyprus agreed a bailout program that will decimate its economy, Italy’s Pier Luigi Bersani, the Democratic Party leader, failed to put together a government, borrowing costs for businesses in the peripheral countries continue to rise, unemployment reached record highs, and purchasing manager indices across the region greatly underperformed expectations. There may be one more piece of bad news to add to the pile before the week is out: Portugal’s budget for 2013 may fall apart, and with it the Portuguese government. During his New Year’s Day address, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva called on the constitutional court to rule whether the budget, which consists of tax increases and spending cuts worth 5.3 billion euros ($6.8 billion), is legal. If the court rules against the budget, an estimated 2 billion euros of the austerity measures may be compromised. This would immediately derail Portugal’s progress toward hitting its fiscal targets, only weeks after the country’s international creditors relaxed them. Rejection of the budget could also cause the government to collapse if the ruling Social Democratic Party cannot find alternative austerity measures to get Portugal back on track with its bailout program. It is unclear exactly when the constitutional court will make its ruling, but it may be before the week is out. Concerns over what the court might say could account for an increase in Portuguese two-year bond yields to over 3.8 percent today, before falling back to around 3 percent again later in the day. This isn’t what a country looking to exit its bailout program and regain full market access needs. -FXstreet.com https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-05 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1) 2013-04-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb) 2013-04-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 2013-04-05 12:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Mar) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-05 04:35 GMT | USD/JPY dives below 96.30 on massive taking profit 2013-04-05 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD negates market sentiment climbing above 1.29 2013-04-05 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD dips to 1.0400 lows 2013-04-05 02:09 GMT | EUR/JPY biggest single day rally on record above 125.30 ---------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.29379 LOW 1.29186 BID 1.29188 ASK 1.29196 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:49:51 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Yesterday high at 1.2950 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.2977 (R2) and 1.3003 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly chart technical indicators readings are positive though Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.2915 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2889 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.2977, 1.3003 Support Levels: 1.2915, 1.2889, 1.2860 ------------------------ GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52428 LOW 1.5214 BID 1.52279 ASK 1.52290 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08:49:52 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: GBPUSD lost momentum after the gains provided yesterday. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be exposed at 1.5259 (R1). Further appreciation above it would enable intraday targets at 1.5284 (R2) and 1.5309 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back formation might get acceleration below the support level at 1.5208 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5182 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5158 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5259, 1.5284, 1.5309 Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5182, 1.5158 --------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 97.195 LOW 96.134 BID 96.314 ASK 96.321 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08:49:52 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.23 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 97.63 (R2) and 98.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 95.94 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 95.54 (S2) and 95.08 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 97.23, 97.63, 98.04 Support Levels: 95.94, 95.54, 95.08 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex School | Currency Converter | Best Forex Trading Software | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 08 2013 Portugal to slash spending after court ruling setback Following the Portuguese constitutional court decision last Friday, in which certain austerity measures from the 2013 budget were rejected, Portugal's Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said on Sunday the government will implement further cuts to compensate the unexpected budgetary setback, so that it can meet targets set by the Troika. Passos Coelho said in a televised address to the country that the court ruling was, cited by Reuters, "a serious obstacle for and risk" this year and next, but showed commitment to comply with the EU/IMF rescue program. The Prime Minister ruled out an increase in taxes but one of the measures being explored was to cut on more spending, as mentioned above. The government is also seeking more flexible conditions from international lenders, so that they can successfully complete the bailout programme in 2014. According to Reuters: "Analysts expect Portugal to be able to agree replacement measures with the European Union and International Monetary Fund to make up for the court ruling, which could cost it between 900 million and 1.3 billion euros." http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-08-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2013-04-08 10:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) 2013-04-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey 2013-04-08 23:15 GMT | USA. US Fed's Bernanke Speech 2013-04-08 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes FOREX NEWS 2013-04-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/JPY moves above 151 first time in 3 years 2013-04-08 03:41 GMT | EUR/USD next upside target near 1.3115 – BBH 2013-04-08 03:22 GMT | USD/JPY to remain bid; 100.00/101.50 eyed – RBS 2013-04-08 02:47 GMT | AUD/USD to stay above parity for the remainder of 2013 – NAB --------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/118.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.3040 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 1.3063 (R2) and then final aim would be 1.3087 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our key support level locates below the session low at 1.2972 (S1) mark. Break here is required to prolong bearish extension and validate our intraday targets at 1.2949 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3063, 1.3087 Support Levels: 1.2972, 1.2949, 1.2926 ----------------- Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/210.gif Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5363 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5388 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5413 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5301 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next initial targets at 1.5276 (S2) and 1.5251 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5388, 1.5413 Support Levels: 1.5301, 1.5276, 1.5251 ------------------ Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/35.gif Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 98.85 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 99.23 (R2) and 99.60 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible bull back on the hourly chart might face next hurdle at 98.07 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next retracement target at 97.66 (S2) en route to final aim at 97.25 (S3). Resistance Levels: 98.85, 99.23, 99.60 Support Levels: 98.07, 97.66, 97.25 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Blog | Currency Converter | Forex Trading Platform | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 09 2013 German Fin Min urges Portugal to find new austerity measures German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a radio interview on Monday that Portugal should come up with a new set of austerity measures, after the country’s high court rejected parts of the plan put forward by the Portuguese government, deeming them illegal. “Portugal has made lots of progress in the last year to gain access to financial markets,” the German finance minister said. “But after this (constitutional court) decision it will have to find new measures.” Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has already announced plans of carrying out cuts in health and education spending, in order to meet the targets set by the Troika and avoid asking for a second rescue package. He assured however that no new tax hikes would be introduced in 2013. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-09 06:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Feb) 2013-04-09 08:30 GMT | UK. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb) 2013-04-09 12:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Mar) 2013-04-09 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Mar) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-09 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD hits 3 ½ week high; fresh upside potential 2013-04-09 03:11 GMT | NZD/USD testing long term resistance below 0.85 2013-04-09 02:14 GMT | USD/CAD finds 1.0160 double bottom; upside risks - TDS 2013-04-09 01:48 GMT | AUD/USD higher on China CPI ------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30679 LOW 1.3009 BID 1.30454 ASK 1.30461 CHANGE 0.28% TIME 08:39:23 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Price stabilized near it local high’s however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3069 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3095 (R2) and 1.3120 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the support barrier at 1.3037 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3012 (R2) and then 1.2987 (R3) Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3095, 1.3120 Support Levels: 1.3037, 1.3012, 1.2987 ------------------------ GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52781 LOW 1.52508 BID 1.52717 ASK 1.52722 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:39:24 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook on the medium-term perspective remains positive. Further market appreciation is possible above the key resistance at 1.5293 (R1). Next targets could be found at 1.5318 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 1.5237 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 1.5214 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 1.5190 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5318, 1.5341 Support Levels: 1.5237, 1.5214, 1.5190 --------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.663 LOW 99.091 BID 99.207 ASK 99.213 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08:39:24 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Down trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited tow to the next resistance level at 99.65 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 100.12 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 100.57 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 98.86 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to our initial targets at 98.37 (S2) and 97.89 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.65, 100.12, 100.57 Support Levels: 98.86, 98.37, 97.89 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 10 2013 Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on Spanish rating Moody’s rating agency announced today that it maintains a negative outlook on Spain’s Baa3 credit rating. One of the main reasons for this decision was the agency’s conviction that the country will fail to reach the 4.5% deficit target fixed by the EU. In Moody’s opinion, Spain will only manage to bring down its deficit to 6% this year, failing thus to reach the 4.5% target required by Brussels. In the report, which was released in the European morning, the agency assures that the continuous deviations from the deficit objectives and the recurring revisions of the estimates carried out by the Spanish government undermine its credibility. Even though the agency acknowledges the country’s fiscal consolidation efforts and highlights the good results obtained in 2012, it also warns against the multiple threats to the Spanish economy. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10042013/ N/A | China. New Loans (Mar) 2013-04-10 17:00 GMT | USA. 10-Year Note Auction 2013-04-10 18:00 GMT | USA. US FOMC Minutes 2013-04-10 22:30 GMT | New Zeland. Business NZ PMI (Mar) 2013-04-10 04:29 GMT | EUR/USD, above 1.31 where true strength test begins 2013-04-10 03:31 GMT | NZD/JPY at 95 not outside the bounds of possibility - BNZ 2013-04-10 02:26 GMT | AUD/JPY pushes again above 104 highs post China trade deficit 2013-04-10 02:22 GMT | AUD/USD strengthens bullish case; 1.0516 new high post China trade -------------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30907 LOW 1.30731 BID 1.30754 ASK 1.30763 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08:35:48 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the moving averages out technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3103 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3128 (R2) and 1.3154 (S3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.3068 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.3042 (S2) and 1.3015 (S3) might be triggered. Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3128, 1.3154 Support Levels: 1.3068, 1.3042, 1.3015 ------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.53389 LOW 1.53125 BID 1.53201 ASK 1.53205 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08:35:49 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5341 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5361 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.5311 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5292 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5271 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5341, 1.5361, 1.5382 Support Levels: 1.5311, 1.5292, 1.5271 --------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.314 LOW 98.914 BID 99.129 ASK 99.135 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:35:50 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: We are not expecting busy session ahead however upwards extension above the resistance at 99.65 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 100.12 (R2) and 100.57 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 98.74 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 98.32 (S2) and 97.89 (S3) later on today. Resistance Levels: 99.65, 100.12, 100.57 Support Levels: 98.74, 98.32, 97.89 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 12 2013 CORRECTION - BOJ Kuroda: Easing to last until sustainable prices achieved BoJ Kuroda speech was just published, with the governor saying that the objetive of achieving the inflation target with 2 years in mind, adding that the BoJ easing will not necessarily be limited to just 2 years. He said that the easing is actually planned to last as long as needed to achieve sustainable prices. He pointed out on his speech that capital spending is the key element to monitor and improve to end the vicious deflation cycle. Mr. Kuroda will make prompt policy adjustment as required on varies areas, prior examination of indicators such as the capex as mentioned, consumption, exports, conducting regular examinations every single month. Finally, he said to be confident BoJ can meet its bond buying target with purchases across the yield curve, adding that monetary policies do not have as a result the depreciation of the local currency but policies are aimed to end deflation, not to affect the Yen rate. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 24h EMU. Eurogroup meeting 2013-04-12 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 2013-04-12 13:55 GMT | US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 2013-04-12 16:30 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-12 04:37 GMT | EUR/USD having a hard time at key supply 1.3140/60 2013-04-12 04:07 GMT | AUD/USD edges higher during Asia session, 1.0553 last 2013-04-12 02:40 GMT | USD/JPY holds 99.38/45 demand for now 2013-04-11 22:48 GMT | EURJPY advances for 6th day in a row, prints new highs above 131.00 EURUSD : HIGH 1.31261 LOW 1.30994 BID 1.31129 ASK 1.31135 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08:52:50 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers key resistance level at 1.3140 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 1.3176 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance for today at 1.3212 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.3083 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.3046 (S2) and 1.3008 (R3) later on today. Resistance Levels: 1.3140, 1.3176, 1.3212 Support Levels: 1.3083, 1.3046, 1.3008 --------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.54096 LOW 1.53814 BID 1.53932 ASK 1.53938 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08:52:51 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the gains provided yesterday. Penetration above the resistive structure at 1.5413 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.5444 (R2) and 1.5477 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.5363 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5330 (S2) and 1.5297 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.5413, 1.5444, 1.5477 Support Levels: 1.5363, 1.5330, 1.5297 ----------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.803 LOW 99.358 BID 99.515 ASK 99.520 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:52:52 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 99.95 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 100.48 (R2) and last one at 101.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low offers key supportive barrier at 99.09 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum on the downside and expose our intraday targets at 98.62 (S2) and 98.12 (S3) Resistance Levels: 99.95, 100.48, 101.04 Support Levels: 99.09, 98.62, 98.12 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Brokers List | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 15 2013 Eurogroup releases statement on Cyprus Eurozone finance ministers, who are holding talks in Dublin today, have released a statement on Cyprus in which they assure that the country has met all the requirements, allowing for the bailout deal to be completed. According to the document: The Eurogroup notes with satisfaction that the Cypriot authorities have implemented decisive bank resolution, restructuring and recapitalisation measures to address the fragile and unique situation of Cyprus' financial sector. The Eurogroup commends the authorities for their demonstrated resolve in implementing these important measures in a tight timeframe and reiterates its appreciation for the efforts made by the Cypriot citizens over the last weeks.” Eurozone finance ministers expect the bailout fund ESM board to give the green light to the proposal of granting Cyprus a 10 billion euro bailout on April 24. The first tranche of the aid could then be released by mid-may. Following the release of the statement on the Cypriot bailout, Eurozone finance ministers, who hold talks today in Dublin, announced that the loan repayment for Ireland and Portugal would be extended. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem confirmed that the Eurozone finance ministers agreed to give seven more years to Portugal and Ireland to repay their bailout loans amounting to 78 billion euros and 85 billion euros, respectively. He also informed that the maturity extension will most probably be approved at the upcoming Ecofin meeting, which kicks off later today. EU Commissioner Olli Rehn expressed hope that Ecofin would give the green light to the measure, which in his opinion is an important step on the road to exiting the rescue program. http://blog.fxcc.com/13536/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-15 09:00 GMT | EMU. Trade Balance s.a. (Feb) 2013-04-15 12:30 GMT | USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) 2013-04-15 13:00 GMT | USA. Total Net TIC Flows (Feb) 2013-04-15 14:00 GMT | USA. NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-15 04:34 GMT | Draghi testimony key in the week ahead for euro – UBS 2013-04-15 04:08 GMT | EUR/JPY, stops below 127.70 tripped 2013-04-15 03:45 GMT | USD/CAD catching a firm bid, trading up 43 pips at 1.0184 2013-04-15 03:08 GMT | NZD/USD again below 0.85 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/126.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3103 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3128 (R2) and 1.3154 (R3) Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low – 1.3043 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3015 (S2) and 1.2988 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3128, 1.3154 Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3015, 1.2988 -------------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/214.gif Upwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5355 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5384 (R2) and 1.5415 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 1.5306 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5282 (S2) and 1.5257 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5355, 1.5384, 1.5415 Support Levels: 1.5306, 1.5282, 1.5257 -------------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/38.gif Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 98.62 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 99.17 (R2) and 99.71 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 97.55 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 97.08 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 96.57 (S3). Resistance Levels: 98.62, 99.17, 99.71 Support Levels: 97.55, 97.08, 96.57 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 16 2013 Portugal unveils new austerity measures to appease the Troika Troika inspectors arrived in Lisbon on Monday in order to carry out the seventh review of the country’s bailout program, since it had received 78 billion euros of aid in 2011. Portugal had to come up with new austerity measures to meet the budget gap of about 1.3 billion euros, which emerged after the Portuguese Constitutional court ruled that four of the measures proposed by the PM Pedro Passos Coelho’s government were illegal. Currently the 2 billion euro bailout tranche is blocked. If the Troika’s review has a positive conclusion, the money will be released and Portugal will also have a better chance of obtaining the 7 year loan repayment extension, approved on Friday by Ecofin. Passos Coelho said today that the additional 600 million euros would come from cuts in healthcare, education , social security and public services and another 600 million euros from reductions of administrative costs. These new austerity measures have been heavily criticized by the left-wing opposition and labor unions. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-16 09:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Apr) 2013-04-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2013-04-16 13:00 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech 2013-04-16 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-16 03:38 GMT | Kiwi retreats as macro risks weigh on sentiment 2013-04-16 03:32 GMT | EUR/USD holds above 1.3035 2013-04-16 02:13 GMT | Gold has peaked, beginnings of a new chapter - RBS 2013-04-16 01:57 GMT | EUR/AUD rockets higher as China Data spurs Aussie weakness --------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30815 LOW 1.30305 BID 1.30747 ASK 1.30753 CHANGE 0.3% TIME 08:33:21 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: A bullish tone dominates during the Asian session and further buying interest might arise above the next resistance at 1.3108 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3143 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an increase towards to 1.3179 (R3). Downwards scenario: Key support level lies at 1.3043 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2969 (S3) later on today. Resistance Levels: 1.3108, 1.3143, 1.3179 Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3008, 1.2969 ----------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.53097 LOW 1.52729 BID 1.53043 ASK 1.53049 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:33:22 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies above the fractal level at 1.5345 (R1). If the break occurs here, next attractive level could be exposed at 1.5374 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5403 (R3). Downwards scenario: However our both moving averages are pointing down and if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.5271 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.5242 (S2) and 1.5212 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5345, 1.5374, 1.5403 Support Levels: 1.5271, 1.5242, 1.5212 -------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 97.71 LOW 95.79 BID 97.438 ASK 97.439 CHANGE 0.69% TIME 08:33:23 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 98.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 98.83 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 99.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible depreciation below the technically important support level at 97.08 (S1) would allow further market decline on the medium-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 96.53 (S2) and 95.99 (S3). Resistance Levels: 98.27, 98.83, 99.39 Support Levels: 97.08, 96.53, 95.99 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Traders Blog | Forex Trading Systems | Forex Account | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 17 2013 IMF cuts global growth for fourth consecutive time, European recession likelihood 50% International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area’s recovery lagging behind the rest of the world. The global economy will continue to grow a further 3.3% this year, less than the 3.5% forecast in January, after 3.2% growth in 2012, the fund noted today, cutting its prediction for this year a fourth consecutive time. Moreover, the Washington-based IMF sees the 17-country euro area shrinking 0.3% , compared with a 0.2% retreat in January, with France joining Spain and Italy in the contraction. “The main challenge is still very much in Europe,” IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said. “Europe should do everything it can to strengthen private demand. What this means is aggressive monetary policy and what this means is getting the financial system to be stronger -- it’s still not in great shape.” As central banks in U.S. and Japan enact unorthodox policies such as asset purchases to rekindle and reinvigorate demand, pressure is mounting on the European Central Bank to do more. The IMF report describes a “three-speed” recovery led by emerging markets including China, with the U.S. forging ahead and Europe trailing after fighting a debt crisis that has forced bailouts of five countries in the region. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/17042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : N/A | Germany. 10-y Bond Auctionctus 2013-04-17 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes 2013-04-17 14:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision 2013-04-17 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Beige Book FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-17 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD edges lower after impressive close above 1.3155 pivot 2013-04-17 04:09 GMT | Medium-term bearish view on the Indian Rupee - Nomura 2013-04-17 03:34 GMT | AUD/USD rejected from 1.04 resistance 2013-04-17 03:32 GMT | EUR/AUD winning streak continues, more gains to follow? EURUSD : HIGH 1.31879 LOW 1.31699 BID 1.31740 ASK 1.31745 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 58:06 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.3199 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.3225 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.3251 (R3). Downwards scenario: Pair looks likely to test our supportive means today. Devaluation below the support at 1.3150 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.3124 (S2) en route to final target at 1.3098 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3199, 1.3225, 1.3251 Support Levels: 1.3150, 1.3124, 1.3098 ----------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.53722 LOW 1.53479 BID 1.53479 ASK 1.53488 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 58:07 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the yesterday high at 1.5379 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5396 (R2) and 1.5411 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Downside expansion might face next hurdle at 1.5347 (S1). Break here is required to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 1.5327 (S2) and 1.5307 (S3) in potential. Resistance Levels: 1.5379, 1.5396, 1.5411 Support Levels: 1.5347, 1.5327, 1.5307 ------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 98.432 LOW 97.514 BID 98.323 ASK 98.328 CHANGE 0.8% TIME 08 : 58:08 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 98.58 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 98.87 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 99.13 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 98.08 (S1) might activate bearish pressure. Next aim for the downtrend expansion locates at 97.81 (S2) and then final target for today could be met at 97.52 (S3). Resistance Levels: 98.58, 98.87, 99.13 Support Levels: 98.08, 97.81, 97.52 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Broker | Free Forex Demo Accounts | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 18 2013 Weidmann opens the door to an ECB rate cut and foresees a lost decade in Europe Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank’s president, has affirmed that the European Central Bank could cut its interest rates if economic data continues worsening, according to an interview published by WSJ. Market has been speculating about the possibilities of the ECB cutting rates and now with inflation below the 2.0% it seems more than likely in May or June. However, Weidmann said the ECB “might adjust in response to new information," but he doesn’t “think that the monetary policy stance is the key issue." "A point that I think is important to make, perhaps less for my central bank colleagues than for finance ministers,” Weidmann pointed, “is that the medication monetary policy makers administer only cures the symptoms and that it comes with side-effects and risks." In Weidmann's words, the important thing is the development of the reforms at the national and European level. The Bundesbank president also stated that the European recovery will take as much as a decade. The opinion is contrary to other European leaders who said that the worst of the crisis is over. "Overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade,” Weidmann affirmed. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 24h | G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting 2013-04-18 08:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 2013-04-18 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13) 2013-04-18 14:00 GMT | USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr) FOREX NEWS : 2013-04-18 05:58 GMT | EUR/USD flat-lining around 1.3040/45 2013-04-18 03:58 GMT | BoC unlikely to hike rates until H2 2014 - Nomura 2013-04-18 03:17 GMT | Australia activity will soften into the June quarter – NAB 2013-04-18 01:59 GMT | China house prices continue to rise EURUSD : HIGH 1.3061 LOW 1.30207 BID 1.30491 ASK 1.30496 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 09 : 05:28 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Price consolidates after the initial downtrend development yesterday. Price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Break here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3102 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, technically important supportive structure lies at 1.3001 (S1). If the price manages to overcome it, we would suggest next initial targets at 1.2979 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3) in perspective. Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3102 Support Levels: 1.3001, 1.2979, 1.2957 ------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52557 LOW 1.52328 BID 1.52532 ASK 1.52538 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 09 : 05:29 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: GBPUSD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.5270 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.5287 (R2) and 1.5304 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5216 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5199 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5182 (S3) Resistance Levels: 1.5270, 1.5287, 1.5304 Support Levels: 1.5216, 1.5199, 1.5182 USDJPY : HIGH 98.367 LOW 97.634 BID 98.064 ASK 98.069 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 09 : 05:30 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Next visible fractal level locates at 98.44 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend formation. In such case, resistances at 98.70 (R2) and 98.96 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.81 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 97.56 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 97.29 (S3) mark. Resistance Levels: 98.44, 98.70, 98.96 Support Levels: 97.81, 97.56, 97.29 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 22 2013 Japan escapes censure on the G-20 meeting he G-20 communiqué provied little fresh headlines to market participants, with the main take away on FX-relate news being the permissive stance towards Japan's monetary policies to beat deflation. The G20 communiqué is basically echoing the same position by the G7 back in February. As noted by Eamonn Sheridan of Forexlive: "Leading into the G20 meeting market concern was that Japan would come under fire for its deflation-fighting policies (which have, as a side-effect, a weaker yen or are have as a central component the aim of a weaker yen, depending on your point of view). It became clear on Friday that Japan had escaped censure from the G20 over its policies, a position made officially clear at the conclusion of the meetings." The section in the G20 communique that makes references to currencies, stated: "We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments. We will refrain from competitive devaluation and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes, and we will resist all forms of protectionism and keep our markets open." It added: "We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. Monetary policy should be directed toward domestic price stability and continuing to support economic recovery according to the respective mandates of central banks. We will be mindful of unintended negative side effects stemming from extended periods of monetary easing." http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-22-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-22 08:00 GMT | Switzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin 2013-04-22 12:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar) 2013-04-22 14:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Confidence (Apr)Preliminar 2013-04-22 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Mar) FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-22 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY marches towards 100.00, BOJ rate decision due out end of week 2013-04-22 04:01 GMT | USD and Yen ease post-G20; Napolitano reelected 2013-04-22 03:23 GMT | Prefer to keep selling GBP/USD – RBS 2013-04-22 02:52 GMT | EUR/USD drifting sideways as range bound behavior continues ----------------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/133.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.3084 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 1.3097 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 1.3110 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today might lead to the recovery action in near term perspective. Next immediate support locates at 1.3046 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish pressure towards to our targets at 1.3033 (S2) and 1.3020 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3084, 1.3097, 1.3110 Support Levels: 1.3046, 1.3033, 1.3020 -------------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/218.gif Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5251 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 1.5269 (R2) and 1.5287 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative tendency development might occur below the key support level at 1.5216 (S1). Break here would open road towards to next supportive measure at 1.5198 (S2) and then final supportive bastion could be found at 1.5180 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5251, 1.5269, 1.5287 Support Levels: 1.5216, 1.5198, 1.5180 ------------------------------------------------------------ Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY : http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/314.gif Upwards scenario: Intraday market sentiment is shifted to the negative side after the losses provided during the Asian session, however market appreciation is possible above the next resistance at 99.89 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 100.19 (R2) and 100.49 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possibility of the price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 99.37 (S1). Break here could provide sufficient momentum and expose our next intraday targets at 99.05 (S2) and 98.75 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.89, 100.19, 100.49 Support Levels: 99.37, 99.05, 98.75 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading System | Forex Trading Software | Best ECN Broker | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 23 2013 Slovenia Bailout Would Be Spanish-Cypriot Mongrel The ink on the provisional bailout agreement for Cyprus was hardly dry last month before bond markets shifted their attention to Slovenia, another small euro- area country with a banking problem. The Slovenian government’s borrowing costs subsequently shot up. The fear that Slovenia might be the next Cyprus, with international creditors again forcing losses onto bank bondholders and uninsured depositors, is only partly justified. Slovenia isn’t Cyprus, and its rescue program, when it comes, will probably look like a hybrid between the Spanish-style bailout and the Cyprus-style bail-in. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-23 07:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI 2013-04-23 07:58 GMT | EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI 2013-04-23 14:00 GMT | US. New Home Sales 2013-04-23 21:00 GMT | NZ. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-23 04:19 GMT | Upcoming economic data the catalyst for EUR/USD? 2013-04-23 04:08 GMT | USD remains our currency of choice - JPMorgan 2013-04-23 03:29 GMT | EUR/JPY consolidates around 129.00 support, Eur PMI on tap 2013-04-23 02:52 GMT | USD/JPY breaks below 99.00 bids -------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30677 LOW 1.30328 BID 1.30415 ASK 1.30419 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08 : 40:20 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: EURUSD determined clear sideways tone on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3056 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. The 1.3032 (S1) mark is key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3019 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3069, 1.3082 Support Levels: 1.3032, 1.3019, 1.3005 ---------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52979 LOW 1.52544 BID 1.52593 ASK 1.52598 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 40:21 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains in power on the hourly chart frame. Next resistance is seen at 1.5280 (R1). Clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our initial targets at 1.5297 (R2) and 1.5312 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5248 (S1). Loss here would shift our technical outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5232 (S2) and 1.5216 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5280, 1.5297, 1.5312 Support Levels: 1.5248, 1.5232, 1.5216 ----------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.384 LOW 98.589 BID 98.693 ASK 98.695 CHANGE -0.53% TIME 08 : 40:22 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY trades under the bearish pressure today and posting new local lows. Though break above the resistance at 99.35 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 99.73 (R1) en route towards to final aim at 100.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 98.53 (S1). Clearance here would suggest further downtrend development towards to possible targets at 98.16 (S2) and 97.76 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.35, 99.73, 100.13 Support Levels: 98.53, 98.16, 97.76 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Automated Forex Trading System | Best ECN Forex Brokers | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 24 2013 Spain might get EU deficit target extension The EU signalized on Tuesday that Spain might be granted two more years to reach the deficit target. Additionally, the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durão Barroso said yesterday that 2013 deficit targets for other EU countries could also be eased. EU sources suggested that the European Commission could allow Spain to have a budget deficit of 6.5% this year and that deadline for it to reach 3% could be extended by two more years. Barroso said that the correction of budgetary imbalances in Greece, Portugal and Spain has been very impressive and that the European Commission is considering extending the deadlines for the correction of excessive deficits also for other EU Member States, as the objective is to combine the adjustment of deficits and debt with growth in the short term. Yesterday weak German PMI data release (47.9 actual vs. 49.1 estimates) fueled more talk of possible ECB rate cuts in the coming months. Although the EURUSD did close below the 1.3000 level, some analysts found the lack of follow through to the downside impressive and believe the key will be to see how it reacts to data in coming sessions. The main report due out today will be the German IFO which is released at 8:00 GMT. Economic data out of the UK is light in the coming session, with Mortgage Approvals due out at 8:30 GMT. The US session will also be fairly quiet with Durable Goods due out at 12:30 GMT. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24042013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-24 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate 2013-04-24 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals 2013-04-24 12:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders 2013-04-24 20:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-24 04:26 GMT | EUR/USD pressured by German PMI data, German IFO on tap next 2013-04-24 03:08 GMT | GBP/USD still forming possible “bear flag” on daily chart 2013-04-24 02:25 GMT | AUD/JPY still range bound after Aussie CPI data disappoints 2013-04-24 02:09 GMT | NZD/USD eases below 0.8450 ---------------------------- EURUSD : HIGH 1.30104 LOW 1.29882 BID 1.30053 ASK 1.30059 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 44:38 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the downside recently, turning short-term bias to the negative side. However upwards penetration above the resistance at 1.3012 (R1) would enable bullish forces and might drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3031 (R2) and 1.3051 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 1.2987 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 1.2970 (S2) and 1.2953 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3012, 1.3031, 1.3051 Support Levels: 1.2987, 1.2970, 1.2953 ---------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.52502 LOW 1.52265 BID 1.52483 ASK 1.52491 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 44:38 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.5253 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 1.5267 (R2) and then final aim would be 1.5282 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, any prolonged movement below the support at 1.5225 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to supportive means at 1.5211 (S2) and 1.5197 (S3) later on today Resistance Levels: 1.5253, 1.5267, 1.5282 Support Levels: 1.5225, 1.5211, 1.5197 ---------------------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.761 LOW 99.193 BID 99.386 ASK 99.391 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 44:39 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Fresh high at 99.77 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 100.13 (R2) and 100.48 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the initial support level at 99.15 (S1) might trigger protective orders execution and drive market price towards to supportive means at 98.77 (S2) and 98.40 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.77, 100.13, 100.48 Support Levels: 99.15, 98.77, 98.40 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Exchange Market FX Brokers | Forex Blog | Currency Converter | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 24 2013 Enrico Letta named Italian PM Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, who was reelected to the post last weekend, has given the mandate to form a government to center-left deputy leader Enrico Letta on Wednesday.After accepting the nomination the new Italian Prime Minister said that he would form "a government of service to the country." He stressed that politics in Italy should regain credibility in order to make head against the crisis. He said that the situation in Italy was very difficult at the moment and that the most urgent issues which should be addressed were unemployment, poverty and problems faced by small businesses. He suggested that the Eurozone should not press so much for austerity and rather focus on boosting growth in the area. 46 year old Enrico Letta is the second youngest Prime Minister in the history of Italian politics. He is the nephew of Gianni Letta, Silvio Berlusconi's close ally and despite his young age he has extensive government experience (he held various ministerial positions in the Italian government and served as a Member of the European Parliament for the North-East region) The cabinet formed by Letta will receive support mainly from Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party, Letta's Democratic Party (PD) and Mario Monti's centrist Civic Choice. http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-25-2013/ FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-25 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product 2013-04-25 12:30 GMT | USA. US Initial Jobless Claims 2013-04-25 14:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech 2013-04-25 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR : 2013-04-25 05:04 GMT | Window still open for the Yen to recover – JPMorgan 2013-04-25 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD – Will next week’s ECB Rate decision end the range bound behavior? 2013-04-25 03:28 GMT | GBP/USD buoyed by Verizon/Vodafone buzz 2013-04-25 02:25 GMT | AUD/USD drifting higher towards resistance at 1.0345 -------------------------------------------------------- Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/136.gif MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Retracement action is reasonable scenario for EURUSD today. Our focus is shifted to the key resistive barrier at 1.3061 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3079 (R2) and 1.3096 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion would attack our support levels at 1.3017 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3). However prior reaching our targets, market should manage to overcome key resistive structure at 1.3034 (S1). Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3079, 1.3096 Support Levels: 1.3034, 1.3017, 1.3000 ------------------------------------------------------------ Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/219.gif Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.5334 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.5347 (R2) and 1.5361 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect retest of our next support level at 1.5298 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and enable our lower targets at 1.5285 (S2) and 1.5270 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5334, 1.5347, 1.5361 Support Levels: 1.5298, 1.5285, 1.5270 ------------------------------------------------------------ Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/315.gif Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 99.77 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.13 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 100.48 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created below the next support level at 99.15 (S1). In such case we would suggest next interim target at 98.77 (S2) and then our final aim at 98.40 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.77, 100.13, 100.48 Support Levels: 99.15, 98.77, 98.40 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alayoua Posted April 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2013 Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 26 2013 All eyes on the ECB This week's data releases were disappointing on balance. While economic numbers in the US and China continued to come in on a weak(er) note, the eurozone's business climate readings failed to improve again. The UK's GDP report, however, was a nice exception, showing that the economy returned to growth earlier this year. With German business sentiment figures down again (but overall still signaling growth), the French numbers pretty mixed at low levels and Italy's reading (to be released next Thursday) likely up from depressed lows, EMU-wide sentiment does not show signs of recovery after the weakness of the last two months. This should further challenge the ECB's expectations of a stabilization in activity in 1H13 followed by a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Coupled with recent dovish remarks from Council members and the "lively debate" during the last meeting, this indicates that the central bank should cut the refi rate (but not the deposit rate) by 25bp within the next five weeks. The exact timing of the rate cut is a close call. But our guess is that June is more likely than May, also because the ECB will have the 1Q13 GDP numbers at hand and will have finished its macroeconomic update procedure by then. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26042013/ N/A | Japan. BoJ Interest Rate Decision 2013-04-26 08:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Chairman Jordan Speech 2013-04-26 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product Annualized 2013-04-26 13:55 GMT | USA. US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 2013-04-26 04:54 GMT | USD/JPY dives lower after Bank of Japan monetary policy release 2013-04-26 04:07 GMT | EUR/USD choppy trade continues, ECB meeting on tap next week 2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | AUD/USD higher on weaker USD and stronger commodities 2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | US Dollar leaking lower during Asia trade EURUSD : HIGH 1.30474 LOW 1.29977 BID 1.30294 ASK 1.30301 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 45:17 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Price stabilized after the yesterday depreciation. Today we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3049 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3066 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, market bias remains negative. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3017 (S1). Break here is required to validate lower targets at 1.3000 (S2) and 1.2982 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3066, 1.3082 Support Levels: 1.3017, 1.3000, 1.2982 -------------------------- GBPUSD : HIGH 1.54716 LOW 1.54287 BID 1.54539 ASK 1.54546 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 45:17 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up TREND CONDITION : Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.5479 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.5502 (R2) and then 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.5426 (S1). Further correction development would open road towards to next target at 1.5402 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5378 (S3) mark. Resistance Levels: 1.5479, 1.5502, 1.5524 Support Levels: 1.5426, 1.5402, 1.5378 ----------------- USDJPY : HIGH 99.411 LOW 98.225 BID 98.552 ASK 98.559 CHANGE -0.7% TIME 08 : 45:18 OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium Upwards scenario: Price accelerates on the downside though chance of market appreciation is seen above the key resistance at 99.22 (R1). Next targets could be found 99.66 (R2) and 100.07 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 98.17 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 97.78 (S2) and 97.39 (S3). Resistance Levels: 99.22, 99.66, 100.07 Support Levels: 98.17, 97.78, 97.39 Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | Forex Demo Account | Currency Converter | FXCC ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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