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Gold - Technical Analysis


ddukic

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Gold 02/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-02112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: Same story as for the EUR/USD. We went a nice tour a little up and back down in order for the institutional traders to perform their daily duties. Now, what?

 

I wrote my opinion for the long term evolution of Gold’s price and I don’t want to return over it.

 

I am telling u, for all short positions, the stop loss is the 200SMA, 38usd higher. For the long positions, the question is where to open it because the respective stop loss is about 50usd below.

 

It is up to you my friends.

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Gold 05/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-05112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS

 

SUGGESTIONS: In my opinion, the price of Gold goes to the level of 1.626,87usd. Pre-condition the “breaking” of the U3 blue trend line that originates from May 2012. In addition, please note that the 4.25 Fibo grade that I was mumbling about all last week, is not totally dead yet. The present level price is within its influence and it is not impossible to observe from here a reversal.

Another interesting target is the U2 trend line, the parallel of the U1 trend line, i.e. the channel U1-U2.

 

The running short positions continue. Below the U3 trend line you should increase slightly your short exposure. If the 4.25 Fibo grade reacts, you should drastically decrease your short exposure.

 

The “Bulls” stay calm and enjoy Autumn.

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Gold 06/11/2012 - Chart Review and Analysis

 

Gold 06/11/2012 - Chart Review and Analysis

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-06112012.jpg

 

SUGGESTIONS: It’s too early to comment on the “young” reversal we observe in the Gold’s chart. The previous comments made on the Gold’s evolution are still valid.

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Gold 7/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-07112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: Ouaou !! What a “rebound”. My friend Barak won the elections and the Gold became more expensive.

 

So, I hope that my friends the “Bears” will be already in their caves enjoying the profits made.

 

The “Bulls” are already on the scene. They are confident and ready to earn their share of earnings. So, my friends please keep your long positions opened. The next level to watch and defend your self is the level of the 200SMA. Above the 200SMA you have the opportunity to “attack” by increasing your long exposure.

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Gold 08/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-08112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: There is no much change similar to the one observed in some currency pairs. The Gold kept the level gained on the announcement of the winner of the American Elections. There was a shortly lived increase of volatility but the level was finally kept.

 

There is a kind of “triple top” set up at the level of 1.730,83usd, as well as a “head and shoulders” set up designed during the sessions of the last five days.

 

So, I imagine that my friends the “Bears” are already out of the party. In your place I would have stayed out of the party until the price gives signs of downwards move.

 

The ‘Bulls” stay cool with their long positions opened. At this point I suggest you a “trailing stop loss” strategy in order to secure some of the running profits you enjoy now. Otherwise, technically speaking the stop loss of the long positions is set below the 1.673,32usd.

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Gold 09/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-09112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: I mentioned in previous comments that a “head and shoulders” set up was forming after the up move of the price on the announcement of Obamas re-election. “Whatever does not go down, goes up”, experienced traders sustain. So, the price moved up. At this right moment is under the 200SMA and pretty soon in the day we will observe its evolution. Don’t forget to consult the Fibo Retr scale marked with blue arrow. This Fibo scale measures the reaction’s extension against the fall from the level of 1.788,33 till the level of 1.673,32usd.

 

Whoever was on long running positions stays cool and waits the result of the “meeting” between the price and the 200SMA. Please note that such meeting may last several trading hours. Obviously, by now, you know what to do above the 200SMA or below it.

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Gold 12/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-12112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: The Gold’s price encountered the 200SMA and as expected, faithful to the manuals of technical analysis, bended its path.

 

I have added a ret trend line: “D1” between the 200SMA and the previous high level of 1.795,16usd on October 5th. If this D1 trend line “stands” during the next few days it will probably play a significant role for the development of the parity’s path. In conjunction to this D1 trend line, the parallel D2, creating a channel, the “D1-D2”, may also develop to the lower part of the zone within this parity may move in the near-medium term future.

 

As far as trading strategies is concerned please note:

 

Existing long positions reduce their long exposure and wait to see the developments. Set a “trailing stop loss” to protect some profits, or, close the long positions in case the price does fall further. Above the 200SMA you increase again your exposure.

 

The newly opened timid short positions set a stop loss above the 200SMA and wait. To increase the short exposure you should wait for the development of a set up indicating downwards in order to identify the target levels and evaluate the corresponding risk/reward ratios.

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Gold 13/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-13112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: Looking at this 4 hours chart of Gold, after the facts, it looks very easy to have accurately traded the evolution of this price.

 

Look at the double effort of the price to cross from below the 200SMA. The efforts failed and the price, for the time being, reversed. Will it continue to move downward?

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART (ZOOMED)

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240Z-13112012.jpg

 

SUGGESTIONS: The failed double effort actually constitutes a “1-2 Waves” set up. I have inserted a Fibo scale marked with a red arrow that estimates the extension of the eventual falling continuation.

 

As you can observe, the technical elements of the 4 hours chart normally posted on the site are still evident on this zoomed chart.

 

Now, let us experiment. If you don’t want to use money, use a paper-trade mode.

 

I would not open a short position now because “the train already travels”. I will wait the next “station” to get on board with a timid long position. If my stop loss is hit, I close the position. I will wait for some time to see the evolution of the price and then I will open a position to the direction of the trend. To the next resistance or support level I will reduce my exposure. I will set a stop loss and then wait. If the stop loss is hit the position will close. At this point, I return to the opening of a timid position. In case the price continues evolving as per the trend, I increase the exposure of my opened position and I keep it running till the next resisting or supporting level. Again reduction of the exposure i.e. “defense”.

 

Please try it. On the paper does not cost anything provided you do it seriously, as if a lot of money were involved.

 

Further down I am posting a zoomed chart on the specific failed double effort in order to experiment together the accuracy of a trading strategy.

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Gold 14/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-14112012.jpg

 

GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

 

SUGGESTIONS: The price was repeatedly resisted by the 200SMA for the last 4 trading sessions. We all understand that a fall is eminent. Otherwise, we need a “firework” to motivate the traders push the price above the 200SMA

 

http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240Z-14112012.jpg

 

SUGGESTIONS: The price is compressed by the 200 and 50 SMAs. The technical analysis set up that is created since the 5th of November 2012 is called “flag”, “pennant” or other similar names because it looks like. Please be alert. Please be informed about the mentioned set ups and their possible evolutions.

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