Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend extending

 

The USD/JPY pair has risen up strongly, reaching the underside of a major trend-line drawn from the September 2012 lows. It is currently encountering resistance at this level. The 50-day MA is adding further resistance at the same level. The dominant trend is up overall, particularly in the medium-term; the trend is more sideways in the short-term, with the current high a higher high but the previous low not a higher low – that is on the 4-hour chart. Any pull-backs are likely to find support from the monthly pivot at 102.80. They may consolidate there a while or given the strong overhead resistance. The dominant medium term up-trend the outlook probably favours a continuation higher, with a break above the 103.16 highs confirming a move to 103.86. The fact that there have been 2 down-months in a row is also a sign that the up-trend will probably resume.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY08-e1394191020901.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking above major trend-line

 

EUR/USD continues rising in its short-term up-trend. A break above the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs has provided a very bullish signal. So far the exchange rate has traded above the trend-line for one day but more time – another day or two – would provide stronger confirmation. The potential for a breakout out of the range of recent years is now a distinct possibility. The next major resistance level, however, is situated not much higher at 1.3923 where the R1 monthly pivot is situated. A clear break above that would be required to signal further upside. Support lies at 1.3850 where Friday's lows and the major down-sloping trend-line are, and any pull-backs would be expected to find support there.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD10-e1394443159715.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking down in '5th leg'

 

Cable has started to weaken after consolidating along the upper border-line of a broadening formation which has been forming since the start of 2014. The broadening pattern consists of 4 legs so far, which means there is probably one last leg before it completes, since these patterns generally have at least 5 legs; the final wave would be a down-leg. Price is currently actually breaking down through a key level at 1.6657, and this should be followed by a move down to support from the monthly pivot at 1.6605. The sell-off is quite strong so far, indicating it will probably continue down to the aforesaid target at least.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD10-e1394451911285.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling back to major trend-line

 

The EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range with a slight downside bias. It has made a tentative break above a major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs, however, today it has pulled-back again to the trend-line again at 1.3850 where it is currently pausing and consolidating. The support at this level will probably provide a good platform for a rebound eventually. The next upside target is at a major resistance level situated at 1.3923 where the R1 monthly pivot is situated. The short-term up-trend remains intact and likely to continue. It is supported by the medium-term up-trend as well.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD11-e1394531507290.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: slight bullish bias

 

Prices have pushed up and are still touching the underside of a major trend-line drawn from the September 2012 lows and encountering resistance there. They have pulled back now but any further upside will meet resistance at that same trend-line, currently situated at about 103.85, which is also the level of the monthly pivot. A break above the 103.42 4-hr chart highs would probably provide the necessary confirmation of a resumption of upside activity. The very short-term trend is unclear but probably 'up'. The medium-term trend is still up since the September 2012 lows, despite the recent break below the trend-line. The up-trend is favoured, and there is an indication this month will end higher than it started.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY11-e1394543903437.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating on support

 

The EUR/USD pair has pulled back after breaking above the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs. It is now trading on support from the trend-line at about 1.3850, although it's probing below the line. The short-term up-trend remains intact, and the pull-back from the 1.3915 highs, could simply be an A-B-C correction. The next move, therefore, could be a resumption higher, with a break above the 1.3876 highs providing a tentative signal, or for more confirmation a move above 1.3897; with an upside target at 1.3923. Alternatively, a move back below the 1.3833 lows would signal a re-break under the major trend-line, and provide a bearish signal, indicating more downside, first targeting light support at 1.3760, but then eventually pushing through to the monthly pivot situated at 1.3705.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD12-e1394618052558.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating on trend-line

 

Cable is weakening. In the very short-term, on the 4-hour chart, is now in a bearish trend. The exchange rate is moving within a broadening formation reversal pattern which has developed since the start of 2014. The broadening pattern consists of 4 legs so far, with the current move down possibly the start of a 5th leg, since these patterns are generally composed of at least 5 waves. Price is currently actually breaking down below key support from the monthly pivot at 1.6605, with the next target at the 50-day MA at 1.6538, followed by a major trend-line at 1.6500. A break below the current 1.6667 lows might provide the necessary confirmation that the sell-off was extending. More downside is predicted with another target at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6389.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD11-e1394625349134.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bullish confirmation

 

The EUR/USD has resumed its up-trend. It has broken above the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3923 and is currently trading at the 1.3955 level. This continuation higher, after the break above the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs, provides confirmation. The next target is 1.4048 where the R2 monthly pivot is situated. Longer-term there is even the possibility of a move up towards the 1.60 highs of 2008, given the price target implied by the breakout from the multi-year triangle.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD13-e1394703366407.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term sell-off extending

 

The USD/JPY pair is now in a very short-term down-trend, after air-kissing goodbye the underside of the major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows, and breaking lower. Peak and trough down has started on the 4hr chart, with two lower lows and two lower highs. There may be a broadening formation developing with a bearish significance. The short-term down-trend will probably now extend, with a break below the 102.40 lows signalling another wave of selling down to the 100-day MA at 102.05. The current move has retraced 50% of he previous move, however, so its possible there could be a bounce from here up to 102.85. The medium term trend remains bullish, so there is also the possibility of a resumption of that.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY13-e1394711014512.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish candle in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair stopped rising suddenly on Thursday and then plummeted, forming a 'sell' candle on the daily chart, which indicates a top is possibly in place or forming. Since then the pair has pulled back down to the 1.3850 zone, finding support at the descending major trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs. Despite the bearish candlestick yesterday, the short-term up-trend is still technically intact and expected to extend. In addition, the major trend-line has not been broken below either. Therefore a resumption of the up-trend is a strong possibility, with a run up to 1.3923 a possibility, and a break above the 1.3891 highs helping to provide confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD14-e1394791082923.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling within price pattern

 

Cable continues falling in a short-term down-trend, within a broadening formation reversal pattern which has developed during 2014. The current move down is probably the 5th leg of the pattern and will probably reach the lows in the 1.61s eventually, since these patterns normally contain at least 5 waves. It will also probably go lower afterwards since broadening formations are normally bearish. Yesterday's shooting star with a longer-than-average wick, indicated more downside, currently, however, the exchange rate has found support at the monthly pivot at 1.6605, which it is attempting to break below. A move down through 1.6585 would probably be sufficient to indicate such a break, opening the way to the next target at 1.6543, where the 50-day MA is situated.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD14-e1394798364406.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating as it continues to rise in a short term up-trend. It formed a 'sell' candle on the daily chart on Thursday but it didn't follow through to the downside, recovering instead. The up-trend is still technically intact and likely to continue, and it remains above the major down-sloping trend-line clearly visible on the weekly chart, which connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. A break above the R1 monthly pivot and the 1.3936 peak highs could lead to a move up to 1.3966, or higher. A pull-back to the 1.3940s support zone is also a possibility, although the up-trend would be likely to resume.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD17-e1395043356248.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: bouncing; resistance reached

 

The USD/JPY seems to have found a temporary bottom at 101.20 and is currently bouncing. It has so far bounced up to and met tough resistance at the monthly pivot at 101.75. The very short-term down-trend, clearly visible on the 4hr chart, remains dominant, although this mini-down-trend is within a wider sideways range or broadening formation. Nevertheless, there is a possibility the current level could be a point at which prices rotate and turn lower, targeting 101.00 at the level of the lower border line of the sideways range. Another lesser possibility is that the current bounce could be the start of an up-wave within the consolidation, and a break above the pivot by 20 pips - above 101.95 - could signal a bullish reversal, with a target at combined resistance at 102.80.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY17-e1395051102402.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term up-trend intact

 

The EUR/USD pair continues peak and trough higher. It broke above resistance from the monthly pivot at the 1.3936 peak highs and ran up to 1.3946 but then turned and fell back down, pulling back to the monthly pivot at 1.3935 again. The pull-back is probably only temporary and the dominant up-trend is likely to resume – possibly even from the present level. A pull-back to 1.3880 is another possibility, given this is the level of the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs. A move above 1.3947 could open the way to a target at the 1.3966 highs, followed by 1.4047.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD18-e1395131540766.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: rally pausing at R1 monthly pivot

 

The aussie has continued rising in its short-term up-trend. It has rallied up above the 100-day MA and now hit resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at 0.9100, where it has rotated and started to pull-back. There is a 'sell' candle on the 4-hour chart which could indicate a correction back down to support from the trend-line at 0.9045, however, the up-trend is likely to resume eventually with a break above 0.9120, which would confirm the next leg higher to resistance at 0.9215. The 0.9132 highs are key and if breached would reinforce the bullishness of the short-term trend; whilst as long as price action remains beneath there is a strong possibility of the dominant mid-term down-trend renewing, since the whole of the rally from the January lows could be an A-B-C correction of a broader mid-term down-trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AUDUSD18-e1395141851179.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-move pausing at support

 

Cable has paused in its short-term down-trend to consolidate at the level of the monthly pivot at 1.6605. It will probably eventually break down below the pivot and continue lower. A move below 1.6585 would probably be sufficient to provide confirmation of such a down-side continuation. The next target lies at the 50-day MA at 1.6543 followed by 1.6395. There are indications the exchange rate could fall even more deeply eventually. The current move down from the 17th February highs is probably the 5th leg of a broadening formation which has been forming since the start of 2014. Prices could reach the 1.61s eventually, where the lower border line of the pattern resides.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD18-e1395137262975.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend

 

The exchange rate has started to consolidate in a small triangle formation at the current highs, ahead of the FOMC rate meeting today. Overall the short-term up-trend remains intact and likely to continue, so an upside break is favoured. A break above the 1.3946 highs would probably confirm a move higher, first to light resistance at 1.3966, and then to the R2 monthly pivot at 1.4048. A pull-back to the 1.3880s is another possibility, given this is the level of the major down-sloping trend-line connecting the 2008 and 2011 highs, so it is likely to provide robust support.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD19-e1395219122309.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pausing in short-term down-trend

 

The USD/JPY has formed a sideways consolidation after reaching the 101.20 lows. The monthly pivot at 101.75 has successfully provided resistance to further gains. The very short-term down-trend, visible on the 4hr chart remains dominant and a decisive break below the 101.20 lows would see a probable extension down to the monthly pivot situated at 100.75. Alternatively, despite the downside bias a break above the 101.94 level, would probably open the way up to a move higher. This would breach the neckline of the double bottom which has formed at the lows, possibly leading to a move up to 102.70.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY19-e1395227121838.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: A-B-C correction to major support

 

The EUR/USD pair has fallen rapidly, reaching major support from the down-sloping multi-year trend-line situated at 1.3820. The pair is currently pausing to consolidate at this level. There are signs it is even trying to break lower and a move below 1.3790 would provide strong bearish confirmation of a break, with the next target at strong support at 1.3705. The dominant short-term up-trend is still intact, however, indicating the pair will likely go higher. The correction back from the March 13th highs is made up of 3 waves, which means it could be an A-B-C correction of the dominant up-trend. This means the most probable scenario is a resumption of the up-trend targeting the 1.3966 highs, however, with price action still bearish, there is no sign of that happening yet.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD20-e1395310240120.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling within broadening formation

 

Cable continues selling off after breaking down below the monthly pivot at 1.6605 and falling to lows of 1.6501. The pair has also successfully broken below the 50-day MA in the 1.6540s. Further, it has also fallen below the major trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows, breaking below it today. These are major bearish signs and it looks as if the short-term trend down is likely to extend, probably to the next support level at 1.6400. My conclusion from the last analysis stands: “The current move down from the 17th February highs is probably the 5th leg of a broadening formation which has been forming since the start of 2014. Prices could reach the 1.61s eventually, where the lower border line of the pattern resides.”

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD20-e1395317076640.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term trend turns down

 

The EUR/USD pair has established a new very short-term down-trend, with two lower lows and two lower highs on the 4-hour chart. It has also broken back down below the major trend-line linking the 2008 and '11 highs. It has reached a new low at 1.3749 and is currently pulling back. It will probably reach a certain level and then renew its short-term down-trend. A break below 1.3648 would provide confirmation of the next move down. The weekly chart is showing a bearish engulfing candlestick indicating weakness. The major trend-line at 1.3690, defining the medium-term up-trend, provides the next target lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD21.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: rebote en tendencia bajista

 

The USD/JPY pair has bounced off the 101.20 lows and moved higher. It has broken above the neckline of a double bottom pattern and rallied up to highs of 102.67, where it has met resistance from the underside of a trend-line drawn from the October 2013 lows. The very short-term trend remains bearish despite this strong bounce, although a break above the 102.67 highs would signal a potential trend reversal. The short-term trend is down since the move off the 105.45 highs. A move below the monthly pivot at 101.90 – by a 20 point buffer - would probably provide a fresh bearish continuation sign, targeting support at 101.20.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY21-e1395404012536.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: rising in possible wedge

 

The aussie has recovered after weakening temporarily following the FOMC dollar rally. It has resumed its short-term up-trend and is steadily moving higher towards an eventual target at about 0.9140. The 200-day MA is also situated just above at 0.9145 providing further resistance. The short-term trend is likely to resume despite the still-dominant mid-term down-trend. There are signs price might be forming a bearish rising wedge, with the current up-move the 5th leg (of 5 probably). Once the up-side target is met there is a possibility of the mid-term down-trend resuming.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AUDUSD241-e1395662607889.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling within broadening formation

 

Cable is falling within a broadening formation at the highs. It has successfully broken below the 50-day MA and a further break below the current 1.6464 lows would probably provide confirmation of a move lower to the next target at the S1 pivot at 1.6400. The short-term trend remains down and likely to continue.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD24-e1395657897677.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish flag forming

 

The EUR/USD has formed a bearish flag after breaking below the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs. The flag has now reached the trend-line again and could be about to start the next pole down. The pair has also fallen out of the rising channel for the move up from the February lows. The flag gives a downside target of 1.3650, with a nearer target at the monthly pivot at 1.3700. The move below the 1.3809 lows confirmed the very short-term down-trend, which is expected to extend. Nevertheless, the mid-term trend remains up and likely to resume too, quite possibly after the fulfilment of the 1.3650 target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD24-e1395651143811.png