Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuing to consolidate in up-trend

 

EUR/USD continues to consolidate after rising higher. The outlook still remains broadly the same: there has been a reversal in the short-term trend from down to up after the exchange rate found support at a major trend-line. On the daily chart this looks like the resumption of the dominant bull trend. These last few days have seen the pair pull-back from its highs, but not in anyway which threatens to reverse the trend again. The up-trend is likely to resume once new stimulus provides impetus. The monthly pivot is situated not much above current price action at 1.3725 and is likely to impede upside. A break above the spike highs at 1.3739 would probably confirm a break above the pivot and a resumption higher. The next target would then be 1.3815. More pull-backs are possible to support at the 50-day MA at 1.3635. A break below 1.3500 would be required to consider a bear reversal.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: A-B-C correction possibly completing

 

The USD/JPY pair is in a short-term down-trend, although medium-term it remains in a broader up-trend. The pair is currently recovering after hitting lows of 101.75 yesterday (27th Jan). The correction has taken the form of an A-B-C up-move so far, with the C leg extending higher. It has just met the 50-day MA at 103.25 and, given the C leg is 90% equal to the A leg, it will probably change direction here and resume the short-term down-trend. An initial target would be provided by the 101.75 lows. A break of these lows would be a much more bearish indicator as it would introduce the possibility of a reversal of the broader up-trend. A break above 103.60, however, would give a stronger bullish signal.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY27-e1390903654452.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating prior to FOMC

 

Nothing new to report: EUR/USD is still in a sideways consolidation prior to the FOMC. The technical picture is that the short-term down-trend found support at a major trend-line and reversed following Friday's spike higher. Now after a few days of consolidation the trend is expected to probably resume and go higher. The monthly pivot is situated not far above current price action at 1.3725 and is likely to prevent further upside. However, a break above the spike highs at 1.3739 would probably confirm a break above the pivot and a resumption higher. The next target is 1.3815. The 50-day MA at 1.3635 is providing support. A break below 1.3500 would be required to consider a bear reversal. Such a move would signal a break of the trend-line and generate a target at 1.3360. Given the potential for volatility today its theoretically possible.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD29-e1390988497291.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pre-FOMC pause in up-trend

 

The up-trend remains intact despite Friday's sell-off. Current price action is consolidating in a sideways move prior to the FOMC. The trend is expected to extend higher given the dominant bullish bias. The only major sign of weakness is the key reversal which formed on Friday. Selling has failed to follow-through so far but it could resume. Overall the up-trend is likely to continue, however, with a move above the 1.6624 highs, signalling a continuation up to 1.6685. Any breakdowns below 1.6539 would probably go lower, eventually finding support at the major trend-line situated at 1.6505.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD29-e1390988497291.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting strongly in up-trend

 

The EUR/USD has continued to correct back down today. It remains in a predominantly bullish short/medium-term trend despite this weakness and is expected to resume its up-trend eventually. Today has seen a harder sell-off and the pair has retraced marginally over 50 % of the preceding spike up of last Friday. Despite today's weakness it has not fallen back down enough to change the overall bullish outlook, and there is a possibility it may even have reached a 'sweet spot' at the 50% retrace where it might rotate back up again. The monthly pivot is situated not far above at 1.3725 and is likely to resist further upside, however, a break above the spike highs at 1.3739 would probably confirm a clearance and resumption higher. The 50-day MA at 1.3635 has been breached but a break below 1.3560 would be a more bearish sign and a move under the 1.3500 lows necessary to consider a short-term bearish resumption with a down-target at 1.3360.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD30-e1391073542847.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: threatening to break lower

 

The EUR/USD pair has fallen steeply and found support at the major trend-line drawn from the July lows at 1.3545. It is currently pressing down and threatening to break below the trend-line. A break below the 1.3500 lows would probably indicate a definitive move down, and a resumption of the short-term down-trend, with a bearish-target at 1.3360. There is a possibility the exchange rate might bounce of the trend-line, however, which would probably result in a move up to 1.3670 level where a down-sloping trend-line off the 1.3892 highs offers resistance. A definitive resumption of the up-trend, however, wouldn't be signaled unless we got a break above the spike highs at 1.3739.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD31-e1391163102793.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: tentative change of trend

 

Cable has begun a short-term down-trend. Price is showing 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs on the 4-hour chart. The monthly pivot at 1.6450, however, is providing support currently and there is the possibility we will see a consolidation before more downside. There has also been a tentative break of a major trend-line drawn from the June '13 lows, and today's price activity has all taken place underneath the trend-line. I would want to see another day's activity below the trend-line, however, before confirming a definite break. The next target down would be the 50-day MA at 1.6395 followed by the monthly pivot at 1.6325, which also happens to be the target for the trend-line break. Despite current weakness the pair is still in a medium term up-trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD31-e1391169497428.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish flag forming

 

There is probably a bearish flag pattern forming on EUR/USD, clearly visible on the hourly chart, as it consolidates at the current lows. At the end of last week it broke down below the major trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows, giving a very bearish sign, and establishing the dominant trend as down. Whilst another daily close below the July trend-line, would provide stronger confirmation of a definitive trend-line break, the probabilities continue to favour more downside. A break below the current flag lows of around 1.3460 would probably open the way to the a move down to 1.3380. Alternatively a break above the range highs at 1.3510 could provide the impetus for a move back up for a possible retest of the underside of the trend-line and 'air kiss' goodbye at 1.3551.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD03-e1391417921420.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: tentative trend-line break

 

USD/JPY has tentatively broken below the major trend-line at 102.00. This trend-line is drawn from the 2012 all-time-lows and so the break constitutes a major bearish sign. For confirmation, however, I would be seeking 2 days of activity below the trend-line. Price is also pressing the 101.60 December lows, which if breached would also be a very bearish sign as it would constitute the establishment of a new 3-month low. Today's tentative trend-line break has generated an eventual down-side target of 99.10. A nearer target would be the 100.80s from the 100-day MA and S1 monthly pivot. A break below the 101.60 level would help provide confirmation for more downside. Alternatively a move up to the underside of the major trend-line for a retest and possible 'air kiss' goodbye at 102.30 is also possible although current price action is showing no signs of bullishness yet.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: resuming down-trend

 

Yesterday's bearish flag ended up breaking higher rather than lower as had been expected. The exchange rate subsequently rose up to 1.3540, just shy of the underside of the major trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows. It has since started falling again and the dominant short-term down-trend is probably now resuming. The pair will probably continue falling down to the lows at 1.3475 from here. The fact that we now have had 2 daily closes below the major trend-line further increases the probabilities of a stronger sell-off. The next target lies at 1.3380 where the S1 monthly pivot lies, followed by 1.3330. A break below 1.3460 would probably provide the necessary confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD04-e1391506989360.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction underway

 

Cable has sold off quite heavily after breaking down below the major trend-line drawn from the June '13 lows. It is in a short-term down-trend which is expected to continue, although, currently there is growing evidence of a correction developing, after the posting of a very bullish key reversal candlestick on the 4-hr chart. The pair has also reached a major support and resistance line along with the S1 monthly pivot, and it has now almost full-filled the target generated from the original trend-line break. There is now the possibility of a correction rising up to light resistance at 1.6365 and then the 50-day at the 1.6405 level. A break above 1.6365 would indicate a probable continuation higher. A break below 1.6215 would be an even more bearish signal, indicating a new quarterly low.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD04-e1391518425121.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend intact but piercing line

 

The rate has broken down below a major trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows and the dominant trend in the short-term is now down. Over the last 2 days there has been a pull-back into the underside of the trend-line but now price action has started falling back down again. Yesterday's strong recovery actually produced a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern, however the signal requires more confirm. The overall picture still favours a continuation lower. A break below the 1.3470 lows could confirm a move lower to the next target at 1.3380 where the S1 monthly pivot lies. Alternatively a bullish close today would confirm the piercing line and indicate the possibility of a stronger reversal and possibly a move back above the trend-line again at 1.3545.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD051-e1391589763821.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: trending lower; bounce possible

 

The short-term trend is now down. Yesterday's strong bounce formed a piercing line Japanese chart pattern, however, which is a bullish indication. This seems to suggest there is a possibility the down-trend may have bottomed temporarily, and that it could now bounce. The pattern requires confirmation from bullish follow-through, today but this has so far been absent. If confirmation fails to materialize we could see more down-side, particularly given the recent break of the major trend-line from the July '12 lows at 102.15. We have now had 2 days activity below the trend-line increasing the probability the break was definitive. A move below the 100.74 lows would be a bearish sign, opening the way to a down-side target of 100.00 – where the 200-day MA is situated. Alternatively a bullish close today would probably lead to an extension up to the underside of the trend-line at 102.45.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY05-e1391600865494.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible bearish flag

 

EUR/USD continues to consolidate and rise, possibly forming a bearish flag pattern. It has reached the underside of the former trend-line drawn from the July 2012 lows. There have been 4 daily closes below this trend-line confirming the break. Follow-through has not been strong, however, which is a concern. The short-term down-trend is still intact, as is the break, so more down-side is favoured. There is a chance that price will 'air-kiss' the trend-line goodbye from its present location and start to move lower again. Ideally I'd want to see a break at least below 1.3490 for confirmation, or below the 1.3474 lows for an even stronger sign. An eventual down-target could be the S1 monthly pivot and 200-day MA at 1.3380. Today is the ECB rate meeting with the potential for much volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD06-e1391679874470.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting back after spike higher

 

The EUR/USD surged up on Thursday after Mario Draghi's upbeat message at the post ECB meeting press-conference took markets by surprise. It broke back above the major trend-line drawn from the July '12 lows but failed to follow-through higher after the initial spike. It has since pulled-back a little. The up-shoot, although 120 points high, was not high enough to reverse the short-term trend down, which will probably resume eventually. Currently the exchange rate has just weakened down to the July trend-line again. A break back below it, and the 1.3481 lows, or the 1.3474 lows for added confirmation, would probably lead to an extension lower, to an initial down-side target situated at the S1 monthly pivot and the 200-day MA at 1.3380.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD07-e1391764150495.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term down-trend intact

 

The USD/JPY has bounced off support at 100.77 and has risen back up to above 102.00. It is now poised to reach the underside of the major trend-line, which it just broke below on the 3rd Feb. Upside is likely to be curbed, however, by the fact that the short-term down-trend remains dominant and will probably eventually resume and make fresh lows. The next target and major support level is likely to be the 100.00 level. The correction from yesterday's lows has shown no signs of weakening, however, so there is no reason not to expect it to continue a little higher, probably up to the underside of the trend-line at 102.45, where it will meet quite tough resistance. However, after that I see a break back down as a major possibility, with a fall to the 100.75 lows first followed by a a move down to 100.00.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY07-e1391771911155.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rebound meets resistance

 

The EUR/USD pair has reached and touched the trend-line drawn from the December highs and the 50-day MA at 1.3650. Despite the bullish short-term trend these resistance levels will probably prompt a pause to consolidate, whilst a pull-back might fall to support at 1.3605. The pair has broken back above the major trend-line drawn from the July '12 lows and has closed for 2 consecutive days above it, indicating a short-term bullish reversal. However, it is still overall in a down-sloping channel, which contradicts somewhat the very short-term bullish recovery. ADX, is very low on the daily chart, indicating a sideways environment. The medium-term trend is still up overall so bulls seem to be in control, and we might expect more upside. However, even if there is a break higher, the R1 monthly pivot is at 1.3682, will probably cap gains. Further downside is checked by the monthly pivot at 1.3585.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD10-e1392024589901.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correction concluding

 

The GBP/USD broke higher, has just touched the trend-line drawn down from the January highs, and has now been repelled. It has also met resistance from the 50-day MA at the same level. It will probably now move down and find support at 1.6340, the neckline for the inverted H&S at the lows. The down-trend is still dominant in the short-term and we could be reaching the end of an A-B-C correction, with a bearish resumption expected at any time. This could probably take the exchange rate lower to the 1.6250's lows. A break below 1.6380 would provide some confirmation as it would establish peak and trough lower on the 30min chart. From an Elliot-wave perspective we could reaching an end of wave 4 and start of 5 down from the Jan highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPUSD10-e1392032155427.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking above trend-line and 50-day

 

EUR/USD has broken above the down-sloping trend-line drawn from the December highs and the 50-day MA at 1.3650. This has generated a new upside target of 1.3760. The R1 monthly pivot, however, is situated at 1.3682 is currently capping any further gains. A clear break above this level – by rising above 1.3700 say - would be required to confirm a probable continuation higher. Alternatively, if the resistance from the pivot holds, any weakness in the currency pair is likely to see a move down to support from the trend-line at the 1.3640 level.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD11-e1392113553781.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: meeting resistance from trend-line

 

USD/JPY is in a short-term down-trend but it has recovered and risen up to the underside of the major trend-line it recently broke below. The correction has risen sufficiently to threaten a reversal. A break above the 102.63 highs would be a major reversal sign, indicating a change in the uninterrupted sequence of peaks and troughs down, changing them to 'up', on shorter time-frames. Such a move would also represent a break back above the major trend-line from the Sept 2012 lows. Currently, however, the down-trend remains dominant and so the probabilities favour more downside. A move below 102.05 would provide an initial signal of a continuation down to support at the 100.91 lows, followed by further support at 100.00. A move below 101.90 would provide another confirmation signal of more downside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY11-e1392121250863.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back to trend-line support

 

The EUR/USD has pulled-back after breaking above the trend-line and meeting resistance from the R1 monthly pivot. It has corrected back down to support from the trend-line at 1.3628. Yesterday formed a bearish shooting star candlestick which indicates the possibility of more downside, however, the trend-line lies in the way and confirmation would be required in the form of a bearish day today. As things stand the short-term trend is still technically 'up' and so more upside is expected. A break above the highs of the shooting star at 1.3682 would provide a strong sign of continuation higher, leading to a probable move up to 1.3740, and then perhaps even higher to 1.3875 given the lack of resistance. The bullish medium-term trend also supports such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD12-e1392200089500.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: short-term trend reverses to 'up'

 

The pound has moved higher, resuming its medium term up-trend. The short-term trend has also now changed from 'down' to 'up' and is expected to continue higher. The pair has broken above resistance from the monthly pivot and the 50-day MA widely clearing these levels of expected resistance. It is expected to continue higher with the next target at the old trend-line at 1.6600, followed by 1.6630 where the R1 monthly pivot is situated. A break above 1.6560 could provide a possible sign of confirmation of such a move higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD12-e1392200089500.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking higher

 

The EUR/USD pair is technically in a short-term up-trend within a broader sideways consolidation. It has fallen back below the down-sloping trend-line drawn from the December 2013 highs. Yesterday was a down-day confirming the shooting star candlestick pattern of the previous day. This indicates the probability of short-term weakness, however, today's activity so far has been bullish, contradicting that expectation. Whilst it is possible prices could be 'air-kissing' the Dec trend-line goodbye the overall lack of a trend makes it difficult to be confident. Complicating matters further is the observation that the short-term trend is still technically 'up', so a break higher is favoured overall. A decisive break above the 1.3690 highs, would discourage bears and target 1.3740 at first, followed by the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3875.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD13-e1392284303369.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: down-trend probably resuming

 

The USD/JPY pair has probably finished its pull-back up to the underside of an old trend-line in the 102.60s where it encountered resistance and is now in the process of resuming the dominant down-trend. This resumption down has taken it to below the 102.05 level, gaining it additional bearish confirmation. The next target down lies at support at 100.91, followed by major support at the key 100.00 psychological level.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDJPY13-e1392295173340.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend breaking above key resistance

 

EUR/USD continues to rise in a short-term up-trend, which is part of a larger medium-turn bullish-trend which started in July 2012. Peak and trough progression is firmly 'up' on the 4-hour chart after price breached above the key 1.3690 highs, making a higher high. It has broken above the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3683 – another key resistance level. It has also broken above the highs of the shooting star candlestick which formed on Tuesday, nullify its bearish indications. It will probably continue higher targeting previous highs at 1.3740, followed, possibly, by the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3875. Any pull-backs would probably find support at R1 mentioned above. A re-break of the current 1.3705 highs would provide additional bullish confirmation. Euro-zone 4th quarter GDP at 10am GMT could cause volatility.

 

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