Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend in doubt; ECB on tap

 

Evidence is growing of a bearish reversal in the short-term trend, particularly after the recent break below the 1.3571 lows, which now means the down-trend has 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs, which are visible on the 4hr chart. So far the trend-line drawn from the July lows has managed to remain intact, and it is in many ways the last piece of support preventing capitulation, but its clear bears are trying to break down below it, and they may well be successful. The S1 monthly pivot at 1.3555 also provides support, and would also need to be breached by a margin. The new downside target for the pair is 1.3445, generated from the original breakout from the price pattern. A recovery is still possible but would require a move above the 1.3660 highs for bullish confirmation, with a target at the former 1.3893 highs. Today's ECB rate meeting could cause a lot of volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD09-e1389260741735.png

Edited January 9, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend resuming

 

Cable has resumed its dominant up-trend, rising up to the monthly pivot at 1.6455 where it has encountered tough resistance and is consolidating. It has reached highs of 1.6478 which ought to suggest the pivot had been breached, however, it has since pulled back down and it could fall further to the trend-line at 1.6430. Overall the up-trend is intact and I would be looking for a break above the 1.6478 highs again to signal a continuation higher, targeting the 1.6600 highs. In the meantime it is still possible there could a be a pull-back to the trend-line first, although more upside is expected eventually.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD09-e1389267541223.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: support holding; NFPs on tap

 

EUR/USD is resting on support from the trend-line up from the July lows, and the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3550. Overall the short-term trend is in doubt and possibly now slightly more bearish. There was the breakdown below the neckline of the double top at the highs, and the 4-hour chart is showing 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs, indicating a probable short-term bearish reversal. The trend-line and pivot remain the last major levels of support holding back a complete reversal. A break below 1.3530 would probably provide confirmation of such a continuation as well as definitive evidence for a break below the trend-line. The next target down is at about 1.3445, which is the target from the double-top. A more bullish outlook would result from a move above the 1.3655 highs.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD10-e1389347695106.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend in doubt

 

EUR/USD rallied higher after the publication of the worst Non-Farm Payrolls for 2 years. The short-term up-trend has probably resumed although the strong bearish move off the highs with 2 lower lows and lower highs which preceded it was a very bearish sign. A break above Friday's 1.3687 highs, would provide necessary confirmation the up-trend had resumed. Until then the short-term trend is still somewhat in doubt. Any moves higher would be limited by the monthly pivot at 1.3725. There is also a possibility that the rebound off the trend-line is an A-B-C correction and there could a resumption lower, although, the 50-day MA at 1.3625 is also likely to provide support, whilst the trend-line at 1.3600 is a further major level of support blocking down-side.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD131-e1389607475182.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend intact but weakening

 

Cable is moving steadily higher in line with the dominant up-trend. It has encountered resistance at the monthly pivot at 1.6455 and has stalled and consolidated around it. Although it continues to make higher highs the pair has shown moments of weakness, threatening to break below the short-term trend-line of the move up from the November lows. Overall the up-trend is still intact and will probably go higher, with a move above the 1.6516 highs indicating a an extension up to an eventual target at the 1.6600 highs. Alternatively a break below the 1.6377 lows would signal a probable breakdown, with 1.6325 providing the next target down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD13-e1389614785902.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking higher

 

The short-term up-trend has probably resumed. Last week's exceptionally poor payrolls data means there is a strong chance the dollar will weaken for the rest of the month. Current price action appears to be being held up by more buying, and there has now been a break above Friday's 1.3687 highs, providing confirmation of a bullish continuation. Although the monthly pivot not much higher at 1.3725 is likely to provide resistance initially. There is also a possibility that the rebound off the trend-line is an A-B-C correction resulting in a resumption lower, although, the 50-day MA at 1.3625 is also likely to provide support. After that, the trend-line at 1.3600 is a further major level of support blocking down-side.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD14-e1389692076978.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: correction unfolding

 

The USD/JPY pair has weakened suddenly and broken down through the tend-line drawn from the October lows. This is probably just a short-term correction of the dominant bull trend and the up-trend is expected to resume eventually and take the exchange rate higher again. On the 4-hour chart there is an A-B-C corrective wave pattern which could indicate the pull-back has now finished. Today is showing stronger bullish activity and a recovery could be evolving. Upside could be capped, however, by the monthly pivot situated at 104.25. Prices need to clear this level completely (perhaps by moving above 104.50) before a resumption can be said to be developing. The next target higher would then be at the 105.45 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY14-e1389700119404.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back to trend-line support

 

The EUR/USD pair has pulled back down to support from a major trend-line at 1.3615 where it is currently consolidating. The pair is also gaining support from the 50-day MA situated at the same level. The short-term up-trend remains just about intact, and combined with the robust support it will probably resume, with the next target higher situated at the 1.3700 highs and then the 1.3725 level where the monthly pivot is situated. A move above 1.3644 would help provide confirmation. A decisive break below the trend-line at the current lows – below perhaps 1.3575 - would start to qualify as a break and reversal of the short-term trend, and probably lead to a move down to the previous lows and the S1monthly pivot at 1.3548, with a break below those adding further confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD15-e1389779993661.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: trend-line broken; possible ABC

 

Cable has broken down below the trend-line for the move up from the November lows, and breached the key 1.6377 lows, although instead of following through to the downside it has recovered and risen back up to retest the underside of the trend-line. The up-trend is still likely to resume, as the whole move down has a 3-wave A-B-C pattern which could signal it is merely a correction leading to a resumption of the up-trend, with a recovery above 1.6516 providing confirmation, and a target at 1.6600. Alternatively, now that we have had a re-test of the trend-line, there is the possibility the break could extend lower down to a possible target at 1.6205, calculated from the recent peak; a move below the 1.6345 lows would help provide confirmation of such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD15-e1389785958165.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: tentative break of trend-line

 

EUR/USD has dipped below the trend-line drawn from the November lows and then recovered to re-test it. It is on top of the 50-day MA situated at the same level. The trend-line break is tentative so far but is a strong bearish sign nevertheless. A decisive break below the 1.3580 previous swing lows would help confirm the break and indicate a probable reversal of the short-term trend. This would probably lead to a move down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3548 right away. A move below that might indicate a break down to the next support level at 1.3445. Alternatively, a rally above 1.3644 would be a bullish sign, indicating the break was false.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD16-e1389859296626.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: dominant up-trend resumes

 

The USD/JPY pair has recovered after breaking down through the trend-line and falling to lows of 102.85. It subsequently rose back up strongly and broke back above the monthly pivot at 104.10, indicating the up-trend is now probably resuming. Whilst there may be a pull-back to 104.10 again it will probably rise back up to the 105.45 highs eventually. A break above these highs would open the way to a move up to the next target at the R1 monthly pivot at 106.58. The up-trend remains intact, both on a short and medium term time-horizon, and is expected to extend.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY16-e1389869627976.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line still holding

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate on the trend-line drawn from the November lows. Yesterday it dipped below before returning for a retest. It continues to remain just under the trend-line. I would want to see a clear break below the 1.3580 swing lows for confirmation of a 'proper' break, however, even then downside is capped at the previous 1.3548 lows by the S1 monthly pivot where prices would probably stop. It is difficult to talk of what the 'short-term trend' is in this choppy environment as it remains unclear. A decisive break below 1.3548, however, might indicate the short-term trend had turned bearish. Patterning suggests there is a strong probability of a short, sharp zig-zag higher, in the immediate future, to perhaps 1.3640 at first, maybe higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD17-e1389950595287.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possible resumption of up-trend

 

Cable has recovered and risen up strongly today, moving from 1.6307 to 1.6444 in under an hour, as a result of a particularly positive U.K retail sales report. This has probably signalled a resumption of the dominant short-term up-trend, after the completion of a classic A-B-C correction from the 1.6600 highs. A recovery above 1.6470, would clear the monthly pivot currently blocking further upside, break the sequence of lower highs, and provide more cast-iron confirmation of a resumption of the dominant trend. The next target higher is at the 1.6600 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing in short-term down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is in an overall stronger down-trend although this morning's activity is bullish. It has now clearly broken down below the trend-line from the July lows and has fallen below the monthly pivot at 1.3550. The short-term trend is bearish and will probably continue, although price has now reached support from a major trend-line drawn from the July 2012 lows, which defines the medium term trend. A break of this trend line would be a stronger sign the pair was going lower. In the short term it is supporting price action which has been bullish this morning, and could go higher, reaching 1.3560-80 temporarily perhaps, before rotating and moving back down. A move below the 1.3500 lows would probably signal a continuation lower to the next target at 1.3380.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD20-e1390208869674.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend probably resuming

 

The USD/JPY has bounced after the recent sharp sell-off to 102.85. The correction was not sufficient to indicate a change of trend and the dominant up-trend remains intact and expected to continue. The bounce from the lows has paused and itself corrected back to the 50% Fibonacci ratio, in its own smaller A-B-C correction which completed this morning. There is now a strong chance the exchange rate will probably rise back up to the 105.45 highs again eventually. A break above these highs would solidify upside expectations and open the way to a move up to the next target at the R1 monthly pivot at 106.58. More closer at hand, however, lie the 104.46 peak highs, and a break above these would provide an earlier signal of continuation higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY20-e1390217507524.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still bouncing off trend-line

 

EUR/USD has rotated and started to fall back down. The short-term trend is probably bearish but price has reached strong support from the trend-line from the July 2012 lows. A down-move clearing the 1.3500 lows – perhaps by a break below 1.3480 - would probably indicate a break of that line and an extension down to the next target at 1.3380. The short-term trend is down on the 4-hour chart with more than 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs. However, on the daily chart, the same move is still only an A-B-C correction, complicating the outlook. A break below the trend line would be a strong bearish continuation sign. The current bounce may not have completed yet and could still start another leg higher, reaching a target at 1.3580, although eventually it is expected to rotate lower again.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD21-e1390297708498.png

Edited January 21, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: triangle completing

 

Cable has been trading in a sideways consolidation following the completion of a strong up-move last week. The formation looks like a triangle which will probably be followed by a continuation higher. The triangle is composed of 5 waves, indicating the minimum number has been met and it is ripe for a breakout. A move above 1.6458 would probably indicate an upside breakout and a continuation up to a target of 1.6505. On balance an upside breakout is expected given the previous strong bull-trend, however, there has been a correction from the 1.6600 highs and this may not yet have completed so there is a possibility of a down-side continuation as well, and a move below 1.6394 would probably indicate a down-side break with a target of 1.6351.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD21-e1390305276328.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pressuring trend-line

 

EUR/USD bounced up to 1.3580 in an A-B-C correction before rotating lower again. The short-term trend continues to be bearish. As I said yesterday, a down-move clearing the 1.3500 lows – perhaps by a break below 1.3480 - would probably indicate a break of the fairly major trend-line drawn from the July 2012 lows, really opening the floodgates to an extension down to the next target at 1.3380. On the daily chart the outlook is still bullish as long as the trend-line holds, but the A-B-C correction complicates the outlook, as it raises the possibility of a bullish recovery. This would require a break above the 1.3580 bounce highs, which might lead to a move up to 1.3620 where the 50-day MA is, however, resistance remains intense above current price action.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD22-e1390382804565.png

Edited January 22, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: possible triangle forming in up-trend

 

USD/JPY has entered into a sideways consolidation on the 4-hour chart after the bounce from the 102.85 lows ran out of steam. Currently it looks like a triangle may be unfolding, and we are in wave 3 (out of a probable 5), however, it is too early to be sure. Nevertheless, some sort of consolidation is forming which will probably end up breaking to the upside, given the prior up-trend and the overall bullish dominance on short and mid-term time-frames. A move above the 104.91 highs would provide breakout confirmation and generate a target at 105.75, with the possibility of a further move up to to the R1 monthly pivot at 106.58 eventually.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY22-e1390393651306.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing off trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has bounced off support from the fairly major trend-line drawn from the July 2012 lows, and has risen very rapidly up to highs of 1.3630. Such is the strength of the rise, it will probably continue, and there is a possibility that this could be the start of a stronger recovery. Looking at the daily and weekly charts we can see a clear unbroken up-trend, and the most recent fall from the 1.3893 highs could be interpreted as an A-B-C correction, with the expectation being that the up-trend will resume. Shorter-term charts such as the 4-hour remain bearish. Price has just broken above the 50-day MA at 1.3620 and is holding, and it could move higher towards the next target at the 1.3700 highs, or the monthly pivot at 1.3725. A breach of them could signal a stronger continuation higher. A relapse below the 50-day could see support activating at 1.3600.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD23-e1390470894158.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking above former highs

 

The short term up-trend has resumed and fallen in line with the broader bull trend. The exchange rate has broken above the former highs at 1.6600 and reached new highs of 1.6615. The break above the old highs was a very bullish sign indicating a probable continuation higher. The next target is at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6686. Before the next leg up, a pull-back to the old trend-line at 1.6575 is a possibility. Alternatively a re-break of the current highs could provide the confirmation needed.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD23-e1390481192314.png

Edited January 23, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend probably resuming

 

The EUR/USD pair rose up strongly to 1.3700 yesterday. This morning the pair is pulling back. There is a possibility of the correction falling to support from the 50-day MA at 1.3615. The short-term down-trend, which developed temporarily after the sell-off from the 1.3893 highs, has reversed after the sequence of lower highs was broken following the rise above the Jan 14th 1.3699 highs. This probably indicates that the broader up-trend, visible on the daily chart has resumed and the exchange rate will continue higher, once the current correction has completed. The next target is close by at the 1.3725 level where the monthly pivot is situated. A clear break above that would probably lead to a move up to 1.3815.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD24-e1390556874995.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term trend reversing

 

The USD/JPY pair broke down out of the triangle it was in (instead of up as had been expected). It then fell steeply to fresh lows in the 102.60s. The short-term trend has now probably reversed from up to down since price action is showing 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs. The indicates it will probably fall further. It has just broken down through the 50-day MA indicating the down-move has bearish potential. It will probably continue falling to the next support level at 101.50, although support there is quite light, so there is a possibility of a further move down to the 100-day MA at 100.79.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY24-e1390562441857.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: resumption higher expected

 

The pair has consolidated after the strong recovery. The outlook remains broadly unchanged: the short-term trend has reversed from down to up; we have had a strong bounce from the trend-line at 1.3560-70, and a breach above the 14th Jan highs at 1.3699, which probably signals a resumption of the dominant short-term up-trend. The monthly pivot offers resistance about 20 pips above price action's current level. A break above the spike highs at 1.3739 would provide strong confirmation of a move up to the next target at 1.3815.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD27-e1390814741953.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: recovery bounce in play

 

Cable has suddenly weakened after reaching new highs; it has fallen back down to the trend-line at 1.6475. The short-term up-trend remains dominant but the strength of the decline raises warning flags. This morning there has been a bounce which has reached an old trend-line drawn from the 17th Jan lows. This is now providing resistance at 1.6570 to further gains. It is possible the pair may rotate at the current level and move down again. A move below 1.6530 could provide confirmation of another sell-off with 1.6450 the next target lower. There is also the possibility of a move higher and a resumption of the up-trend, with a clear break above the old trend-line, signalled by a move above 1.6590, providing probable indication of a continuation back up to the 1.6667 highs.

 

 

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