Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking below neckline of H&S

 

The breakout from the flag pattern failed to follow through in the end and instead the exchange rate fell back down. It has been trading in a range-bound sideways move but is now breaking down out of that as well, and threatens to accelerate lower. A breakout from the consolidation at the highs could fall to support at 1.6115, although support from the monthly pivot at 1.6200 is another possible target. A bullish outlook is supported by long-term trends and a break above 1.6485 might provide confirmation of more upside, targeting 1.6550, although the current breakdown this morning makes that seem unlikely now.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD13b-e1386936108119.gif

Edited December 13, 2013 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking down

 

The breakout from the flag pattern failed to follow through in the end and instead the exchange rate fell back down. It has been trading in a range-bound sideways move but is now breaking down out of that as well, and threatens to accelerate lower. A breakout from the consolidation at the highs could fall to support at 1.6115, although support from the monthly pivot at 1.6200 is another possible target. A bullish outlook is supported by long-term trends and a break above 1.6485 might provide confirmation of more upside, targeting 1.6550, although the current breakdown this morning makes that seem unlikely now.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD13.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend possibly resuming

 

EUR/USD has pulled back to support from the R1 monthly pivot 1.3710 and bounced. It could be resuming its short-term up-trend, which would be expected to continue, with the next target situated at potentially tough resistance from old highs at 1.3828. A break above the 1.3775 'neckline' of a small H&S formed in the current trough would help confirm the resumption of the up-trend, which remains dominant, notwithstanding the possibility of a cyclical pull-back at some time in the next week.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD16g.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: @ range lows

 

Cable is moving sideways within a 200 pip range. Price is currently at the range lows but will probably reverse and move higher next, rising up to the range highs at 1.6450. There is the possibility of a retest of the 1.6250 lows first, but then a rally above 1.6360 would help confirm the move back up to the highs, which are at the same level as the upper border-line of the multi-year triangle (dotted line), which is a major resistance level. The sideways pattern will, however, eventually break higher, due to the dominant up-trend, targeting 1.6550 first, followed by 1.6650, the objective from the previous consolidation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD16g.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend resuming

 

The EUR/USD pair has resumed its short-term up-trend after pulling back to support from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3710. It has broken above the 1.3775 'neckline' of a very small H&S and surged to highs of 1.3797, confirming that there will probably be a continuation higher. It has since pulled back to resistance-turned-support at the neckline again, however, revisiting 1.3775, where it is currently consolidating and from where it will probably mount another rally. The rebound is expected to resume and meet the next target situated at the 1.3828 resistance level.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: supported by trend-line

 

The USD/JPY pair has fallen to support from a trend-line linking the 5th, 11th and 16th December trough lows. It is currently consolidating, but it will probably move back up now and continue the dominant trend higher. A recovery up from here could see the exchange rate rise to resistance from the top of the channel at 104.15, which also happens to be the resistance level from the R2 monthly pivot. A break above the 103.15 highs would help provide bullish confirmation. A decisive break below the 102.60 lows could see the exchange rate fall, targeting 101.32.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: triangle forming ahead of FOMC

 

EUR/USD is consolidating in a sideways move which looks like a triangle. Currently it is falling to 1.3730 where there is support at the lower triangle border. A breakout higher is expected eventually continuing the previous up-trend. This would be confirmed by a decisive move above the 1.3800 highs, and would target the 1.3900-15 level. Resistance from the R2 monthly pivot at 1.3828 might be expected to impede further upside, however, although if the move is strong enough it could break above it pretty easily too. Today's FOMC meeting at 19.00 GMT could produce a lot of volatility, which could be the catalyst for a break-out.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD18-e1387363333797.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: testing lower line of wedge

 

The USD/JPY pair has recovered after breaking down below a trend-line. It found support from the lower border-line of an ascending wedge at 102.50 and bounced. It has now reached the underside of the trend-line again where it is consolidating. The up-trend is in doubt, but it broadly remains intact, therefore a break above the 103.10-15 highs, which comprise a significant resistance level, could lead to a move up to the upper line of the wedge at about 104.15. Alternatively a re-break of the 102.50 lows would be a very bearish, because it would confirm the trend-line break, mark a probable breakout from the wedge and establish a bearish target at 101.32.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY18-e1387369669684.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish signs

 

The EUR/USD fell heavily yesterday after the FOMC meeting. It broke out of its triangle pattern and closed much lower at 1.3683. During the day during volatile swings it made a new high and then closed below the previous day's low, forming a key reversal and an outside day at the same time – both very bearish signs. The 8 week cycle which I have noted in past posts is peaking and strengthens the bearishness of the outlook. Currently price action is still resting on the trend-line drawn from the November lows, however, and a break below these lows at 1.3665 would help add bearish confirmation. There is major support from the 50-day MA at 1.3605.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD19-e1387449501656.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: falling within its range

 

Cable is moving sideways within a 200 pip range. Price is currently at the range lows but will probably reverse and move higher next, rising up to the range highs at 1.6450. There is the possibility of a retest of the 1.6250 lows first, but then a rally above 1.6360 would help confirm the move back up to the highs, which are at the same level as the upper border-line of the multi-year triangle (dotted line), which is a major resistance level. The sideways pattern will, however, eventually break higher, due to the dominant up-trend, targeting 1.6550 first, followed by 1.6650, the objective from the previous consolidation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD19-e1387455720188.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating on trend-line

 

EUR/USD in a short-term up-trend, although the last two days have been bearish, with a shooting star at the highs, a tweezer top and a key reversal all auguring more weakness. The probability that an 8-week cycle has hit its peak further points to a correction taking prices lower. Price has not followed-through, however, falling only a little way to support at the trend-line up from the November lows where it is currently consolidating. It is the holiday season now and less likely to produce major price changes. There is the possibility of a resumption of the up-trend if prices break above 1.3710, with a target at 1.3780. However a break below 1.3650 would help confirm a continuation lower, although there is major support from the 50-day MA at 1.3608, not far lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EURUSD23-e1387791143917.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in up-trend

 

The USD/JPY pair is in a strong up-trend, although for the last few days it has pulled back to support from the level of the old highs in the 103.70s. The current retracement is probably just a shallow pull-back before the pair resumes its ascent and continues higher since the dominant up-trend remains intact. Another important level is the R1 monthly pivot at 104.15. This is expected to continue resisting further upside despite already having been breached once. It is Christmas and so volumes may be low until the new year. Nevertheless a re-break above the 104.62 highs would probably signal further upside to the next target at 105.88.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/USDJPY23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pull-back unfolding

 

The sudden, strong move up last Friday quickly reversed and came back down, forming a bearish long-wicked shooting star candlestick pattern which indicates more weakness to come. The fall this morning further indicates that today will probably be a down-day. Cycle analysis points to the possibility that a peak may have formed in a 8-10 week cycle with a correction now possible. There may also be a reverse in euro flows after the new year, leading to a fall in the euro. The next significant support level is at 1.3725 where a cluster of MA's and previous lows sit, and the exchange rate will probably fall back down to that level, possibly even to more robust support at 1.3705, especially if we see a breach of the latest lows at 1.3759. Eventually, however, a recovery is favoured as the short-term up-trend remains intact, with the 1.3818 highs targeted.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/eurusd31-e1388484888329.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend intact

 

The trend up from the summer remains intact and is showing no signs of weakening. Longer timeframes show there has also been a bullish break out from the upside of the large multi-year triangle, indicating a substantial amount of upside is now expected, possibly even to the 1.9950s – however far fetched this may seem. Currently, however, the R1 Monthly Pivot at 1.6550 is successfully resisting more upside and a break above the 1.6577 highs is required to confirm a continuation higher, which could then target at around 1.6700. The monthly pivot will move tomorrow, however, when it is recalculated for the new month. If there is a pull-back then the next major support level is at the trend-line supporting at 1.6450.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GBPUSD31-e1388493042334.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: A-B-C correction forming

 

The EUR/USD pair is still correcting from its recent spike highs. It has formed an A-B-C pattern which appears to be completing its final C leg now. It has reached an old support and resistance line at 1.3720 increasing the chances there could be a reversal and recovery from the current level. This would be expected to take the exchange rate back up to the major resistance line linking the 2008 and 2011 highs at around 1.3880. Currently there is no sign of a bullish reversal from price action, however, so there is a possibility that the exchange rate will fall further, perhaps to the trend-line at 1.3705. Given the dominant short-term up-trend a recovery is expected eventually, with a move above the 1.3775s providing bullish confirmation of such a resumption.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD01-e1388656186867.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend continuing

 

The USD/JPY pair is showing step-progression higher. It has resumed its up-trend after pulling back and has reached and re-touched the old highs at 105.41. It will probably break above the highs and continue rising up until it reaches the R1 monthly pivot at 106.58. A clearance above 105.50 would help provide confirmation of such a move. Overall the outlook is bullish and the up-trend is expected to persist.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY01-e1388661308240.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: finding support at range lows

 

After touching multi-year resistance EUR/USD has fallen back down into a consolidation range between 1.3810 and 1.3625. The short-term up-trend is still technically intact, but there are growing signs of weakness. The exchange rate has fallen in an A-B-C correction to the range lows where it is supported by the 50-day MA. It will probably rebound from here back up to the range highs at 1.3810, however, there are no signs of reversal yet. A break above 1.3675 might provide the necessary confirmation that such a move higher was unfolding. Although 1.3810 is the final target higher, the cluster of smaller MA's at 1.3725 could also provide a nearer target. There is also the possibility of further weakness if the consolidation range is in fact a double top. A break below the neckline and 1.3610 could signal a more bearish breakdown to a target at 1.3445.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD03-e1388743874122.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: strong correction unfolding

 

Yesterday's bar formed a key reversal which is a bearish sign. The pair has now fallen to support from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6450. On the 4-hr chart it looks like an incomplete A-B-C correction, with the C leg still yet to unfold. It will probably fall to the trend-line at 1.6385, or maybe 1.6325. A break below the 1.6400 lows would provide confirmation. The more bullish bigger picture, however, favours an eventual resumption of the up-trend, to an initial target at the old highs. The short-term trend is strongly bullish and the pair has broken clear of a multi-year triangle it has been consolidating in, and is expected to move much higher at least to the mid 1.70s eventually. Much may depend on Services PMI released on Monday, which if weak could see the sell-off continue or a resumption higher if strong.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD03-e1388752327566.png

[fxapex]

AUDUSD pair is very volatile right now and i think ultimately its going to take a downward move....

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: key level reached; up-trend in doubt

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken down below the neckline of a possible double-top reversal pattern - or a consolidation box pattern - producing a downside target of 1.3445. This is a sign the bull-trend may be reversing, however, the pair has found support and bounced from the major trend-line for the move from the July lows at 1.3565. Until this major trend-line is breached a resumption of the up-trend cannot be discounted. Alternatively, a break below the current lows and the trend-line at 1.3560 would give a significant bearish signal and confirm a short-term change of trend. The bounce has reached the 50-day MA at 1.3620 where there is a possibility of a resumption down. A clear break back above the neckline – at say 1.3675 - would indicate a resumption of the up-trend, probably back to the 1.3893 highs.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD06-e1389003861201.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: probable resumption higher

 

The USD/JPY could be ready to resume its short-term up-trend after concluding a pull-back. It has posted a dragon-fly doji on a trend-line, providing a fairly strong signal that the up-trend could resume, and today is forming a hammer, which is also supported by the trend-line, and is also indicative of a resumption higher, although it is not as strong as perhaps expected. The fact that the S1 monthly pivot is situated at 104.00 also supporting price action at the pull-back lows increases the chances that the exchange rate will probably renew its up-trend, perhaps reaching the old highs at 105.43 and then possibly the R2 pivot at 106.58 eventually. A break above the highs at 104.94 would provide stronger confirmation of such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY06-e1389009856533.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bounce extends

 

The overall picture is that the short-term bull trend is still intact – but only just. The recent break down below the neckline of the price pattern which formed at the highs was a bearish sign, however, after falling some way, it reached support at a major trend-line. From here it has bounced to the level of the neckline again at 1.3625, temporarily breaking above the 50-day MA in the process. On balance a continuation higher is the more probable outcome, with a break above the 1.3675 level providing stronger bullish confirmation, and a target at the 1.3893 highs. Alternatively, a break below the current lows and the trend-line at 1.3570 would give a significant bearish signal and confirm a short-term change of trend, with a new downside target of 1.3445, generated from the price pattern at the highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD07-e1389080549545.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pulling-back in up-trend

 

Cable is continuing to pull-back in the midst of a strong up-trend. It has fallen to the trend-line for the move up, forming a bullish hammer candlestick there yesterday. This would seem to indicate the possibility of a resumption of the dominant up-trend, however, today is showing weakness, rather than strength so the up-trend cannot be said to have resumed yet. Nevertheless the bias seems to be to the upside and a break above the monthly pivot at 1.6455 – including a 20 or so pip buffer - could provide confirmation of a move higher to the 1.6605 highs, at first and then even higher. The S1 monthly pivot is situated at 1.6325 and expected to provide support underpinning price.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD07-e1389090765564.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trapped in range between support and resistance

 

The outlook remains broadly unchanged: the short-term bull trend is still intact although it has weakened. There was a break down out of a price pattern at the highs which signalled the start of a possible reversal but the move down was prevented from blossoming after it reached support at a major trend-line (drawn from the July lows). From there it has since rebounded, retesting the level of the neckline at 1.3625, and now appears to be in the process of rolling over again and resuming its descent. Because the up-trend is still quite intact, however, it would require a clear break below the trend (clearing 1.3560) to confirm a short-term change of trend, with a new downside target of 1.3445. A recovery is still probable, however, with a break above the 1.3675 level providing stronger bullish confirmation, and a target at the former 1.3893 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD08-e1389175296881.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: probable resumption higher

 

The USD/JPY has now probably started resuming its dominant short-term up-trend after concluding a pull-back to the trend-line for the move from October. The exchange rate has risen sharply and will now probably continue rallying higher reaching the old highs at 105.43 and then making new highs until it meets resistance from the R2 monthly pivot at 106.58 eventually. A break of the current highs would probably be confirmation enough of such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY08-e1389186083846.png

Edited January 8, 2014 by joaquinmonfort