Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: dominant up-trend probably resuming

 

The analysis has not really changed for cable since Wednesday: it still seems to be resuming its broader up-trend under the steam of yet more positive data – most notably the 1st quarter GDP results yesterday.

 

There has been a pull-back from the very short-term up-trend, which has found support at the major trend-line drawn from the June 2013 lows. The correction is composed of 3-waves, visible on the 4-hr chart, and it is probably about to complete and move higher again. A move above the 1.6917 highs would probably confirm a move back up to resistance at 1.7000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 200-day MA supporting price

 

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to support from the 200-day MA at 1.3634. For confirmation of a clear break I would want to see a move below 1.3605. Such a break would probably reach the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3580, which unfortunately leaves little scope for gains.

 

The very short-term trend has changed since the decline from the May 8 highs and so in the absence of reversal signs more downside is expected to follow.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: reaching key resistance

 

The USD/JPY pair has recovered and risen, reaching resistance from the lower border-line of a broadening formation price pattern at 102.00. The very short-term trend is bullish and could continue, confirmed by a break above the 102.15 highs, however, there is much resistance above, first from the 50-day only 5 pips higher at 102.20, and then at 102.50.

 

The pair's 8-day cycle may also be peaking if the effect of right translation in down-trend is taken into account. This adds further evidence to the possibility that the pair will resume its down-trend. There is a good possibility such a resumption could occur at the current level, given it coincides with resistance from the lower border line.

 

Therefore a break below the 101.58 trough lows could help confirm more downside, targeting 101.22 initially, and then 101.00.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bullish reversal signs

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a very short-term down-trend which is expected to continue lower. A break below the 1.3614 lows could signal a continuation down to a target at 1.3581, where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

The pair has bounced off support from the 200-day MA and formed a piercing line Japanese candlestick reversal pattern on the daily chart, and it is possible that a recovery is on the horizon. A break above 1.3655 could potentially signal a change in the very short-term trend, generating an upside target of 1.3720. An up-day today would add confirmation to the piercing line.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD temporarily moved below the 1.3612 lows but failed to follow-through to the down-side. It looks like it might be at the start of a sideways consolidation now. The 200-day MA continues supporting price and remains an obstacle to more downside. The bullish piercing line reversal candlestick failed.

 

The very short-term trend remains intact and likely to continue, especially after the break of the major trend-line drawn from the June 2012 lows, which was a very bearish sign and yielded an eventual, but still unrequited, down-side target of 1.3425. A clean break below 1.3610 ought to provide confirmation of more down-side, targeting 1.3581 first, at the S1 monthly pivot.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term up-trend meeting resistance

 

The analysis has changed little from Monday: the pair has risen up and touched the underside of the large broadening formation. The very short-term trend is up and likely to continue.

 

The problem is that there a lot of layers of resistance above preventing a continuation, first from the 50-day at 102.20, and then from the monthly pivot at 102.50. A clean break above these levels is necessary for an upward extension, with a break above 102.70, opening the way to open country until 103.78.

 

The pair's 8-day cycle may also be peaking, and a break below the 101.58 lows could indicate the down-leg of the cycle was beginning, targeting support at 101.25 from the 200-day.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trending lower

 

The EUR/USD pair has moved lower, continuing the short-term trend down. It has broken below previous lows and has almost reached the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3581. It will probably pause to consolidate before moving lower again.

 

The break of the June 2012 trend-line was a very bearish sign, yielding an eventual downside target of 1.3425. A clean break below S1, including a 20 pip confirmation gap, (at 1.3561) could see the pair fall to the next downside target at S2, situated at 1.3489, with further support from a support and resistance line not far below at 1.3477.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possible A-B-C completing

 

Cable has continued selling off, after breaking down below the major trend-line. It has breached several layers of support and reached new lows of 1.6692.

 

Whilst the very short-term down-trend remains intact and is likely to extend, the move down may also be close to completing. This is because the move off the 1.6995 highs looks very much like an a-b-c correction, and the C leg is almost as long as leg A, indicating that it might be close to completing. After it has completed the broader up-trend could resume, however, so far there is a lack of bullish evidence to support that.

 

Therefore the down-trend remains dominant, and a move below 1.6691 could lead to a further sell off down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6648 – at which level wave C will equal A.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back in down-trend

 

The analysis has not changed since Thursday: the EUR/USD pair is still falling in a bearish short-term trend lower, which will probably extend. Yesterday's tentative recovery and the rebound today are quiet small compared to Wednesday's big down day.

 

The exchange rate has reached support at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3581. Eventually, however, I see the likelihood of a clear break below S1, with a 20 pip confirmation gap, (to 1.3561) and another bearish move down to the next downside target at 1.3489, with further support from a support and resistance line not far below at 1.3477.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back, in down-cycle

 

The pair has pulled back after touching resistance from the underside of the large broadening formation. The very short-term trend is still just about 'up'.

 

As I remarked in the previous analysis, there are a lot of layers of resistance lying above between 102.20-50, and a clean break above these would be necessary for confirmation of a big upward extension, with a break above 102.70 opening the way to 103.78. In the meantime another move up to the broadening pattern border at 102.15 is a possibility.

 

The pair may be in the down quotient of an 8- day cycle (we are now in day 7). More downside will probably reach support from the 200-day MA at 102.25.A move below the 101.42 lows would supply bearish confirmation, and probably change the very short-term trend to 'down'.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend resuming

 

The EUR/USD is probably resuming its very short-term down-trend after rotating at resistance from the 200-day. The start of June also brings a recalculation of monthly pivots, repositioning the S1 pivot at 1.3581, which was preventing the down-trend previously; there is now no impediment to progress lower.

 

As such, a break below the previous lows at 1.3585 could provide the necessary confirmation for more down-side, with the next target lying at 1.3480, followed by 1.3418, the target generated by the break below of the major trend-line from the 2012 lows, and at 1.3380 the target from a possible double-top at the highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pull-back at critcal cross-roads

 

Cable's recovery reached resistance from the 50-day MA, rotated today and has started moving down again in line with the dominant very short-term down-trend. As I have remarked before a move below the 1.6691 lows could confirm a continuation down to the region of 1.6645-50, at which level waves A and C of the measured move off the May 6 highs would be the same length. This also happens to coincide with several other support levels including the S1 monthly pivot and the 100-day MA, making it an important zone to watch.

 

The down-trend remains intact and likely to continue – however, a break above the 1.6777 pull-back highs would be a bullish sign, probably indicating the resumption of the broader up-trend and the completion of the a-b-c pattern from off the May 6 highs; yielding an initial target at 1.6818.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD has broken down through various major support levels, most recently the 200-day MA at 1.3640. It recovered, but failed to break back above the 200-day. The sell-off has been propelled by increased speculation that the ECB will ease policy at their monthly meeting on Thursday.

 

A continuation of the down-trend is expected, with a break below the previous lows at 1.3585 providing confirmation of more down-side, and the next target lying at 1.3480, followed by 1.3418, which is the price objective generated by the break below of the major trend-line from the 2012 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD03b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend recovery expected to extend

 

The USD/JPY pair has moved rapidly higher, breaking up above the 50-day MA and above the lower border of the large broadening formation which unfolded from January. It is currently testing the 100-day MA at 102.37.

 

The very short-term up-trend is expected to continue higher. I'd want to see a move above the current 102.50 highs, however, for more confirmation. This would also confirm a break above the MA. Such a break would probably lead to a rise up to the next target to the upside at the R1 monthly pivot, situated at 102.90.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: flat ahead of ECB meeting

 

The EUR/USD pair seems to be in a sideways consolidation after bouncing up to the 200-day MA at 1.3641 yesterday and then easing back today. Price action will probably remain subdued up until the ECB complete their rate meeting tomorrow.

 

Overall the very short-term down-trend remains intact and likely to continue, so a break below the 1.3584 lows would probably lead to a move down to the next target to the downside, situated at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3480.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend turns 'up'

 

GBP/USD

 

Cable's brief break above the 1.6777 highs was a bullish signal, possibly ending the short-term down-trend and potentially marking a resumption of the broader up-trend. However, it quickly weakened and fell back down to its current position near the 1.6690 lows.

 

The a-b-c correction from the May 6 highs looks complete, and whilst legs A and C are not exactly the same length, they are close enough. Now with the move above 1.6777 there is more evidence of a recovery. The medium trend still looks intact and likely to resume after the correction has ended.

 

The 50-day MA stands in the way of the recovery, however, lying as it does at the level of the 1.6781 highs. Yes, the rate will probably rise from where it is now up to it, but even a clear break above the MA, including a 20-pip confirmation, would leave little upside before reaching the monthly pivot at 1.6817 – another 'tough resistance level.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD04b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rangebound before ECB meeting

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting concludes today and markets are likely to stay quiet up until it does. This is because of high expectations that the ECB will ease policy. If they do, it will probably weaken the single currency. Much depends on the level of stimulus announced, if it is only a rate cut then investors will probably have already priced it in, if more then the euro could fall.

 

From a technical perspective this fits well with the fact the pair is in a very short-term down-trend, which is likely to extend. Currently it is consolidating after the most recent leg down reached 1.3584. A break below these lows, however, would probably signal further downside. The next target lies at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3480. Price action could be violently volatile after the meeting, so it might be wise to wait for the rate to clear a confirmation gap of say 20 pips (at 1.3564) before expecting a bearish continuation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: 'zig-zag' complete

 

USD/JPY has probably completed the second leg of a 'measured move' – or zig-zag pattern- off the May 21 lows; with the lengths of waves A and C now equal. There has already been some bearish action following the completion of this move, and this will probably continue at least temporarily, despite the fact that the very short-term trend is up. It is quite possible that a break below the 102.43 lows could lead to a move down to the 50-day MA and the lower border of the large consolidation – or broadening pattern - at 102.20.

 

Off course its also possible the pair could continue sideways but that very much depends on the data out today from the ECB and tomorrow for Non-Farm Payrolls; if these cause volatility it could breakout either way. However, given the very short term trend is up, a break higher, above 102.78 is expected; the problem is, there is limited upside potential given formidable resistance lies only 10 pips higher at 102.88 from the R1 monthly pivot.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend intact despite rally

 

The EUR/USD pair has had a volatile past session: at first it weakened after the ECB announced more easing at their meeting, but then it recovered almost as strongly, resulting in a sharp rally and break above the 200-day MA, and the previous range highs.

 

It is currently pausing and drifting lower, and it could move back down to the 200-day which is likely to provide support. Despite the strong recovery, however, the very short-term down-trend remains intact and likely to continue. A break below 1.3623 would mark a probable move back inside the range; a break below the 1.3585 lows, would mark a resumption of the down-trend back down to 1.3500 or 1.3480.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend turns bullish

 

After the breach above the 1.6777 highs the very short term trend changed to bullish. It continued rising up until meeting resistance supplied by the monthly pivot situated at 1.6817. It has since paused and pulled back a little.

 

It will probably resume its up-trend, however, once it successfully clears the pivot including a 20-pip margin of confirmation, giving a confirmation level of 1.6837. This would probably lead to a nice move up to support and resistance from previous highs at 1.6930.

 

Since the completion of a classic a-b-c correction from the May 6 highs down to the lows of the 29th the dominant medium-term bull-trend may also be resuming, influencing the overall outlook for the pair.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GBPUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: posibility of bullish reversal

 

EUR/USD fell sharply and then rebounded aggressively after the ECB announced more stimulus. I am now cautiously bullish after price action formed a long hammer-like buy candle last Thursday, and the pair has broken and held above the 200-day MA. A move above the 1.3676 highs would provide confirmation of a reversal of the very short trend higher, targeting 1.3725, where there is resistance from the major trend-line from the 2008 highs.

 

Alternatively, despite the strong rebound, there is, in my view, a lesser possibility that the down-trend could extend instead, with a break below the 1.3585 range lows providing confirmation of a continuation down to a target at 1.3500.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD09b.png

[roobin54]

gbp jpy

 

On the H4 chart, the price is going down within a bearish trend. We are expecting to have it dropped across the market if the selling pressure being established. The forecast is rescinded by having the trend line broken.

 

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

[roobin54]

gbp jpy

 

On the H4 chart, the price is going down within a bearish trend. We are expecting to have it dropped across the market if the selling pressure being established. The forecast is rescinded by having the trend line broken.

 

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: trending sideways

 

The USD/JPY pair is still broadly trading in the sideways range it began in February. It broke down below the range lows temporarily but then rose up, forming a channel higher, thrusting back inside, and above the 50-day MA last week. It has now pulled back off the highs a little.

 

Technically we are in a sideways trend. A break above the 102.64 peak highs could lead to a move up to the 102.79, and possibly further upside although 103.00 is a further tough resistance level not far above.

 

A move below the 102.10 lows would be a strong bearish sign, targeting the 101.50. From an Elliot Wave perspective, a bearish move is expected as it would complete the correction from off the Jan 1 highs, providing the wave C leg of the correction, of the clear impulse wave from the 2012 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/USDJPY09b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking lower

 

The EUR/USD has fallen to support at the former range lows at 1.3585. It is in a very short-term down-trend, which is extending and it will probably continue lower. The exchange rate has just broken below the 1.3581 current day lows, providing yet more confirmation of a bearish continuation towards the next down-side target at the level of the 1.3500 lows.

 

This comes despite the strong rebound last Thursday, which formed a long hammer-like buy candle and the temporary break above the 200-day MA.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/EURUSD10.png