ddukic Posted September 28, 2012 Report Share Posted September 28, 2012 EUR/USD 28/09/2012 - Daily and 4h Chart Analysis and Review http://fxlisting.net/images/EURUSD-28092012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS & DAILY CHART COMMENTS: Today, I post two EUR/USD charts together in order to show you how you should exploit the charts of different time frames. The obstacle that supported until this moment the correction that was developing is the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. As we said previously, higher time frame charts give stronger indications and thus should be respected more against findings from lower time frame charts. The second reason for the small rebound during yesterday’s end of trading is due to the 0.25 Fibo grade on the 4 hours chart. Both elements combined constitute a strong support. In case the parity will break this level we will see significantly lower parity’s levels, because of the downwards pressure that will be needed. Once the level broken, just by inertia the parity will continue further below. We have repeatedly warned about the congestion of various technical supporting elements of the brown horizontal line as shown in the chart of 4 hours. SUGGESTIONS: The pivot to consider is the 200SMA on the Daily chart. For as long as the parity remains above the 200SMA we will be moving in a “long” environment, therefore, we keep the long positions opened, eventually with a small decrease of the long exposure. In case the parity returns above the previous local high we increase the “long” exposure aiming to targets up to 1,38 level. Observe in the 4 hours chart how fast the Stochastic (14,1,3) “climbed” to the overbought area. The ascension speed indicates a conspicuous buying action from the buyers. Stop loss of the long positions the level below the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. This level will also constitute the one to initiate short positions with stop loss just above the same 200SMA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 1, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2012 EUR/USD 01/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusdD-01102012.jpg COMMENTS: This parity stayed too long supported by the 200SMA on the Daily chart here above (right side). In the middle chart, the one of 4 hours this parity was supported too, although by a different set up that we cannot observe in the daily chart that shows fewer details than the chart of 4 hours. In the chart of 60minutes (left side) the parity already reacted moving higher. Obviously, we will follow the evolution of the parity within the 60 minutes chart and progressively we will evaluate its path in the next higher time frame chart. SUGGESTIONS: In general we are still in a “short” terms environment. The small reaction presented in the 60 min chart may constitute the beginning of a stronger up move nevertheless there is nothing to demonstrate it at this time, unless someone may have a “vision”. So, we still keep the short positions running although we are a little scared about the supporting strength shown by the underlying parity’s level. I suggest you get covered. Either reduce short exposure or close the short positions. Having intact capitals allow you to trade at any time. The non capitals are bad new. So protecting your capital is your foremost care. A first indication of a new up correction would be the up breaking of the d1-d2 red down channel of the 60 min chart. Guys, keep calm. We may be running an important pivot in the EUR/USD parity. Keep y0ur alert level high. 4h Chart http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-01102012.jpg 60min Chart http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-01102012.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 2, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2012 EUR/USD 02/10/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis and Review http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-02102012.jpg EUR/USD 4h Chart Review COMMENTS: Here too there is no significant change since the starting of trading sessions the night of last Sunday. As already mentioned, Monday’s trading is often explorative therefore no major activities or changes are usually observed. In details, traders tried to exceed twice the 50SMA just to fill their obligation to trade a certain amount per day. Nothing more. Nevertheless, there is a buildup of peculiar set up. Two strong opposite areas, graphically speaking, are confronted having the brown horizontal line as buffer. SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will simplify my opinion to the much needed elements. So, above the brown horizontal line you go long. Below, you stay short. Obviously, the same brown line is used as stop loss limit for the contradicting long and short positions. EUR/USD 60 MIN http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-02102012.jpg COMMENTS: We often repeat that all type of moves are born young (as a small swing in the beginning) and grow as the time goes on. Here, at the chart of the 60mins on the EUR/USD pair we have an example. At he utmost right side of the chart there is a possible “head and shoulders” formation being built up. In addition, at this right moment the parity is trying to exceed the 200SMA being at the same time compressed by the 50SMA that is acting as support from below. Hey, don’t you think that an “explosion” will be observed in a while? Of course. SUGGESTIONS: Unfortunately this analysis will reach you after the “explosion”. By the time is uploaded and you visit it will take some hours. At that time you will observe the consequences of it. Anyway, just for demonstration I would like you to observe this 60min chart on EUR/USD and try to study the aftermath of the “explosion”. Obviously, above the 200SMA we open long positions and so on for the short positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2012 EUR/USD 03/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-03102012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: For the last 48 hours of trading the parity is side stepping compressed between two strong levels. I don’t suggest opening new positions using the 4 hours time chart. It does not give you any sign that will allow you to open positions with small stop loss cost. The levels of stop loss both for Long and Short positions are far away from the present parity’s level. Nevertheless, please study this chart for using it as guide for positions opened based on the 1 hour chart. EUR/USD 60 MIN http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-03102012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will not add any comments. As a matter of fact, I will continue only with the Suggestions because what interests you at the end of the day is to know the trading strategy to apply. Let us start. Any opened long positions from lower levels (example: the two previous lows) will continue running. Stop loss the level immediately below the crossing of the two SMAs. New Short positions. You can open short positions with stop loss the recent local high pivot at 1,2960. New Long positions may be opened provided the parity does not go below the crossing of the two SMAs. EUR/USD DAILY CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusdD-03102012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: As you can see we are still above the 200SMA level nicely supported and protected. With this chart you may have a more complete picture of the EUR/USD parity. To see successful Short positions you must observe the parity below the level of the 200SMA. Otherwise, the more we stay above it, the more a consolidation is created that may push the parity upwards. In this chart the environment is clearly indicating Long direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted October 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2012 EUR/USD 05/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-05102012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: The most interesting chart of today on the EUR/USD pair is the 4 hours chart. Observe the parity "touching" the horizontal brown line. Please remember how many times I referred to it in the past postings. Another interesting observation is the very recent low at the 0.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with a blue arrow. The parity is not like a slow moving automobile that you may brake on it and stops, more or less, with high precision from the point of arrest you chosen. The parity is like a "train" breaking at high speed. Inevitably it will continue for some distance after the breaking effect. So, long positions still running either new, or, opened from much lower levels continue their glorious way. A little more effort and we will enjoy, first, the "double top" set up, thereafter, a diagonally upwards move that will be aiming the 4.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow. As the situation developed you place the stop loss a "little" below the very last local low, 1,2830usd. You may open new short positions in case the parity does not succeed to exceed the horizontal brown line. Set the stop loss of these new short positions at the level of the affordable cost. Technically, the correct stop loss for new short positions would have been the 1,3170 usd level, very expensive at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 EUR/USD 05/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-05112012.jpg EUR/USD 60 MIN SUGGESTIONS: This is Sunday, November 4th, 2012 06.00hrs GMT. The American Elections on November 7th, is a day that according to its electoral outcome will constitute a “new beginning” for the next four and/or eight years for the World Economy. We all know already that USA’s Economy shows the path for many other countries and their citizens. I did not wait for the electoral outcome to write these comments. I am writing them before the people in USA vote. The reason is that I will try to prove that “news” like the well know “NFP” of USA, or, the “Housing Starts”, or, the “Beige Book” and so on, in the CFDs industry, are used as excuses to motivate “retail clients” to “bet”. I mean trade, on the possibility to guess the result of an expected economic report better or worse than expected. The time each new is expected there is a high volatility on the parities as if the result to be announced a little later will change the world economy. Sorry my tongue: B.S. If the monthly “NFP” is as important economic issue, comparatively, how much more or less important or not important can be the outcome of the American Elections? What other “news” can motivate more traders, investors, entrepreneurs, speculators and so on? Economically, most “scenarios-movies” are “orchestrated” and when the “news” break out, the “clients” buying or selling the “news” are simply “financing” the new “scenario-movie” to come on our computer screens some months or years later. In effect, the budgeted profits from the first “scenario-movie” are earned before the news break out. So, whatever money is traded after the breaking of the news is “cherry” on the top of the ice-cream. Now, why, you, retail clients of the CFDs Brokers may be affected from all this “Machiavellic” scenarios, I still don’t understand. So, the American Elections, in my opinion, will not affect the EUR/USD. “Will not affect” means will not alter the trend. Obviously the outcome of the Elections will generate some swings, exploitable by the experienced traders. In the chart, as from magic, the magenta trend line d5 stopped the fall of the parity during the trading session of last Friday. You remember of the “false triple bottom” set up I was telling you about. Here we are. I can sustain that we are already in the area of its influence. The pink horizontal line is the “last front before downwards”. So, the “Bears”, open a beer to celebrate. A “pink belt “ never stopped the “Bears”. Yes, my friends the “Bears”, you should take though some protection, so, reduce your short exposure. Technically speaking, the stop loss of the short positions is the level of the 50SMA after the announcement of the Elections’ result. The green “support” area is like a “Make or Break” zone. I don’t suggest trying new short positions before the “pink horizontal line”. The “Bulls” you should be quiet. No “red colors”, no excitements. Even if you see the parity jumping upwards like a “Jack in box” stay calm and don’t run after it. The parity will be going up and down like a yo-yo for some time. You don’t want to be caught in the middle of this battle. The worst scenario is to be caught in the middle of the battle, trading with a CFD Broker who does not give you “margin” warnings, but connects your margin to your equity. In other words, for as long as u have equity your margin sustains your position. When u lost all your money, the position closes. EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-05112012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: I wrote on the 60min chart’s comments about some issues that I wanted to communicate to you. In this 4 hours chart we go straight to biz. The question to reply is: The “0-1-2 Waves” set up marked in the chart, is realistic and reliable? In case the reply is YES, we are starting a difficult downwards 3rd Wave. Targets as low as 1,2189 and even further down. In case the reply is NO, we are finishing an additional swing on the “pennant” (some people call it “flag” and other various names) designing a “triple bottom” set up. We will have to see in the near future whether the “triple bottom” will be “false” or will create an up move that may bring this parity till the 1,40usd level. The critical level is the “triple bottom” level and a little further down. I am not expecting the traders to respect the said line as “gentlemen”. Obviously the traders will “play” with the level of 1,28usd before heading towards the already selected direction. So, above 1,28 I suggest to stay long with all precautions on RED alert. Below the 1,28 I suggest to stay short alerted as well. My friends, I wish you a happy week. !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 EUR/USD 06/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis EUR/USD 06/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-06112012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: We should not forget the two Fibo scales. The one marked by the blue arrow indicates the “grades” upward. The Fibo scale with the red arrow indicates the downward move. Please note the previous “double top” set up at the level of Fibo grade 3.23. The same Fibo scale has “grades” of higher grade like, 4.25 – 5.78 – 6.85. In other words, I do not exclude unequivocally the possibility to observe a return to the up movement of this parity. In this case, the swings we are observing as of September 16th 2012 are only a “sideways” correction that will only give more strength to this parity. Will the result of the American Elections generate the required energy? We will see in the near future sessions. Vice-versa, the Fibo scale marked with red arrow indicates the down move. As you can see the parity is just on the “verge of the cliff”. If we lose the “triple bottom” set up we will try the support levels indicating in the chart. EUR/USD 60 MINS http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-06112012.jpg SUGESTIONS: By now it is simple. Above the pink colored horizontal line you stay long. Below the same colored line you stay short. Technically speaking, if the parity will not succeed to recover the “d4” trend line, the parity will follow the magenta colored channel “d5-d6”. Future intermediate targets, 1,2680 – 1,2571 – 1,2436 and below. If the parity succeeds to recover the “d4” trend line, we may observe an up move. First upward target the 200SMA. For the time being, the parity is in the center of the “triple bottom” set up and we must be ALERTED for the evolution of the parity after the result of the American Elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2012 EUR/USD 07/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-07112012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS SUGGESTIONS: Further to the comments made for the 60min chart, we observe on the 4 hours chart the up candle of the last hours of trading. In this chart the “resistances” in front of the parity are evident. First of all “resistances”, the d1 red trend line, upper part of the channel “d1-d2” is the first the parity will encounter. The trading strategy described in the 60min chart corresponds to the 4 hours chart too. EUR/USD 60MIN http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-07112012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: The news announces Mr. Barak Obama as the next President of the United States and the EUR/USD parity, for the time being, reverses its falling course. The “pink” horizontal trend line, signaling since many days the “triple bottom” set up, proved to be, for the time being, a strong supporting level. Can you tell whether Mr. Obama’s re-election reversed the course of this parity, or, the “pink” horizontal line? Anyway, the parity is approaching the resistance of the 200SMA. The short positions must reduce to the bare minimum, if not closed, their short exposure and wait further developments before opening new short positions. The long positions, new anyway, remain opened. The up correction under way will encounter in short the 200SMA where will reveal some of its consistency and nature. Obviously, the opening in Europe and later the opening of the USA will give us further indications of the further evolution of the EUR/USD parity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/USD 12/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-12112012.jpg UR/USD 60MIN CHARTS SUGGESTIONS: The green colored “support” zone is reached by the parity and a “slight” reaction can be seen immediately after the “touching”. As I have repeatedly stated: “below the pink horizontal line we remain on short positions. The stop loss strategy must be adjusted now. For as long as the parity stays close to the pink horizontal line, the stop loss or the level for very drastic reduction of your short exposure, r emains a level little above the pink horizontal line. As the parity will eventually increase the distance of its position from the pink horizontal line, you must switch to a “rolling stop loss” strategy. Never forget that no one becomes “rich” from trading only one trade. I have also indicated the green zone as a support level. So, the Bears reduce their short exposure and the Bulls open timid long positions with stop loss the breaking of the “d4” trend line and the 1.26837 minus a little, level. Above, the pink horizontal line, my friends the Bulls, will “attack”. The Bears, will “attack” after the parity crosses from above the green support zone. EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-12112012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: The forecast about the “1-2 Waves” set up I mentioned two days ago, gains credibility as the parity falls. At the closing of last evening trading session, the parity stopped its downwards path on the D1 red trend line, abandoning for some hours the d2 red trend line, a path followed by the parity for some time already. If the parity crosses from above the D1 trend line and continues downwards not paying attention to the “SUPPORT 1” zone (colored light blue color), the “1-2 Waves” set up will be fully confirmed and the parity would be engaged in a 3rd grade Elliott Wave,. The parity will accelerate its fall, creating somewhere along the path a downward gap or gaps, depending from the violence of the fall. Expected targets of such fall are the levels of 1.2189 (2.618 Fibo grade) and 1.15 (4.25 Fibo grade that does not appear on this part of the relevant chart). Vice-versa, if the parity pays attention on the “SUPPORT 1” level, the eventual strong fall may be postponed for latter. The 3rd grade Elliott Wave by stopping at the “SUPPORT 1” zone will satisfy the condition wanting the 3rd Wave to be longer than one of the 1st or 5th grades Waves, because this 3rd Wave (1.31-1.25) will be longer than the 1st Wave (1.31-1.28). Double the size in pips. In this case, the forecasted fall may be manifested adopting an extended 5th grade Wave after the exhaustion of the 4th grade Wave that may start from the “SUPPORT 1” zone and exhaust somewhere around th3 1.28usd level. The exhaustion of this “extended” 5th grade Elliott Wave may be at levels below the 1.15usd (4.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with thick red arrow). As you can easily suppose, from each of the levels that could play the role of resistance on the possible falling evolution of this parity’s path, you can start timid long positions till the next resistance zone. They are trades on long positions of small duration in time. If you choose to do it, you must be careful while selecting the entry points in order to have the max of risk/reward ratio. You, also, must set tight stop loss strategy in order to min losses and do not over try it, please. In general, there are no reliable foreseeable support levels for the very near future. Besides, as you will observe from the weekly chart that I suggest you should visit, the parity its being distanced from the brown prong of the relative Andrew’s Pitchfork. There is not yet sufficient distance to consider it as “unequivocal” crossing from above, nevertheless, the sign are there, very evident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/USD 13/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-13112012.jpg EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART SUGGESTIONS: The parity is supported right now by the D1 red trend line that originates from the 28th February 2012. There is a significantly light trading forcing the parity to “jump” more than under heavy trading volumes. My friends, this chart is full of technical lines and Fibo scales making its reading difficult. The density of technical tools in this chart signals that is better to run “short time” trades. Leaving positions, either long, or, short, opened for long time, will surely encounter a technical element that may “burn” most of the unrealized profits. Anyway, the main trend is downwards, so, short positions are suggestible. On the crossing of the D1 trend line from above, the parity is expected to encounter the “SUPPORT 1” zone. For here, either, a rebound of limited extensions is expected, or, a “delay” of the falling path. On this SUPPORT 1 zone you may try some long positions with stop loss level just below the supporting cyan zone. EUR/USD 60MIN CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-13112012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: The parity for the time being is little below the 1.2683usd level; it is not though finished with the green supporting zone. The “d4” trend line has been tested several times therefore I will remind you that it constitutes a “major” element of technical analysis in this chart and you can trust it. If the d4 breaks, “nobody is perfect”, the parity will continue moving within the channel d5-d6 aiming lower targets of this falling path. Therefore, The short positions must be ready to reactivate their relative exposure. You must, though, firstly be sure about the crossing from above of the green supporting zone. Targets further down: 1.2575 – 1.2441 – 1.2244 – 1.2206 – 1.1981. All targets correspond to the various Fibo grades of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow; and thus constitute potential intermediate or reversing targets of the parity’s path. Stop loss the crossing from below of the 50SMA. The “Bulls”. My beautiful optimistic friends, open some very timid long positions and be ready to close them as the parity eventually cross from above the d4 trade line and the green resistance zone. In case the green zone proves to be “too hard to die” and the parity rebounds, wait for the return of the parity, to reconfirm that green zone is “really alive”. If, in this second attempt, the green zone resists and the parity rebounds, my bullish friends increase you long exposures. The stop loss for you is set at the level of 1.2650usd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddukic Posted November 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2012 EUR/USD 14/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd60-14112012.jpg EUR/USD 60MIN CHART SUGGESTIONS: Today, I have nothing to add. The SUPPORT green zone, for the time being, holds its position and function. The parity aims the 200SMA and continues moving between “d4-d3”. EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-14112012.jpg SUGGESTIONS: The “D1” trend line “seems” to hold and the parity aims the 50SMA on this 4 hours chart. In case the “young” reversal follows the latest news from the front of the European Debt crisis, is early to “celebrate” the solution of the problem. Therefore, let us wait for the encounter between the parity and the 50SMA in this time frame chart and the encounter of the parity with the 200SMA at the 60min chart. The trading strategies of the previous days are still valid since the supporting levels on both time frame charts were estimated with good precision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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