My price-action strategy

[fxfxfx]

Fibonacci - confluence

 

Hi folks,

 

What we learned with this lesson is what I meant by Fibonacci-confluence.

This confluence will strengthen every S/R-Line as you put the odds to your favour.

 

Let me explain this a little bit:

 

The fastest animal in the world is the hunting-leopard. But when he is hunting he does not choose the healthiest, fastest gnu -> He chooses a small gnu which is probably hurted - even he knows that he would be able to get also the healthy one: But he puts the odds to his favour (really clever *g*).

 

So in terms of trading this means.

We see what all the S/R - traders are seeing and where they probably put their orders... We also see what the fibonacci - traders are seeing and where they probably put their orders. When we have levels which are recognized by S/R-Traders AND Fibonacci-Traders -> Chances are high that the amount of orders got accumulated because at these levels are the orders of S/R-traders AND Fibonacci-traders -> We also trade in the direction of the trend -> so this alone gives you a very big edge !

 

Think about it ;)

 

Hope this post was useful...

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi danyalati,

 

Both are correct ;) -> but you are one step ahead -> But you will know what I mean in the next lesson ;)

 

Thx for the good work

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Which of these two would be more appropiate?

 

My eyes agree more with the frist picture, however the second ones abides by the rules.

 

http://i51.tinypic.com/oko5mf.gif

http://i55.tinypic.com/20z18uf.gif

[fxfxfx]

Good work :)

 

I really like that so many people are doing their homework (Although I think that there must be more).

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Here's mine.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8440/201106090110.png

[fxfxfx]

I izogrey,

 

As always I love your sharp analysis ;)

 

Regarding your comment of the S/R line -> The nearer they are - the more powerful they are -> The more price-action confluences they have -> The more powerful they are ;)

 

Continue with your good work and analysis as you will need to do this on a regular basis if you want make cash with this (every serious) system -> But how long do you need for your analysis usually ? I am sure that it does not take soooo much time - Am I right ? ;)

 

Good job

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Hi 3fx,

 

Don't feel pressed if you cannot post lessons/homeworks. If you cannot post, that's it ... it's the life. We aren't here in a competition with deadline, we just try to build a virtual space of goooooooood quality. :-)

 

Regarding this, I think that all the human actions can be clasified in one of these three categories:

1) do it good, but not fast; ( I mean do it using all the potential resources )

2) do it fast, but not good; ( I mean not at maximum of possibilities, just a minimum of quality, but fast )

3) do it good and fast; ( this is veeeeery tricky, and it's possible only sometimes )

 

I think this thread ( and the trading in general ) should be in the first one :-)

 

UC confluence level:

 

I drew the SR line from confluence after I put Fibo ( and after I considered the short term price action ), but it's a short term SR line, not a strong one.

 

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/1531/ucconfluence.gif

[fxfxfx]

well done nnn123,

 

If you all continue with this speed - you should all be able to read the market very quickly :)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Here is mine with fibs.

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZdSw

 

Which is a AU daily.

 

It has a one fib confluence at 1.0333, where 23% and a 61% are aligned.

[fxfxfx]

Well done crisp,

 

do you get now a "feel" how the market moves ? Are you now able to spot possible good price-turning-points and where you have an edge ?

 

Please folks - Be aware that we see all this in realtime ! You draw the line(s) now and you will be prompted if your analysis was right/wrong - And we are doing NO LINE-FITTING here. Everything here is public and can be verified for us all ;)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Here is my 4h EU chart with fibs.

 

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/1160/eu4hpachartwithfibs.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Best confluence I see on 61,8; 50 and 23,6 levels. Best out of those 3 is 50 level

 

Regards

 

Crips

[fxfxfx]

Hi grooter,

 

1A -> Do you know now why price was NOT able to CLOSE ABOVE the S/R-Line and was hardly rejected from these levels ?

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Here is mine. Best confluence I see at 61.8 fib level.

 

 

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[fxfxfx]

Hi alright,

 

Good and sharp analysis :)

 

I really love to see people finding their way to price-action and learn so quickly that they do NOT need indicators, but simple horizontal line(s).

 

I really think that most of you guys gets now a feeling how the market works ;)

 

Makes me really happy !

 

Continue with your good work

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

I'm posting again my EJ picture after almost 9 hours to show what's happened in the meantime. My matching levels were 23.6 and 61.8. Well, the 61.8 acted as a perfect support generating an 80 pips move (white arrows) which bounced off the 23.6 by 30 pips (red arrow)! No comment... ;)

 

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4179/201106090948.png

[retireme]

Hi grooter,

 

1A -> Do you know now why price was NOT able to CLOSE ABOVE the S/R-Line and was hardly rejected from these levels ?

 

Cheers fxfxfx

 

3FX,

 

Was it because it was rejected 5 times previously in long term memory?

 

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Rgds

RM

[fxfxfx]

Hi retireme,

 

exactly -> But to be more exactly:

 

This level is also a S/R-Resistance-Level (As you recognized it correctly) and is in confluence with the 50% Fib-Retracement -> 50% and 61% Retracement are also not that far away from each other - so price overshoot the 61% Retracement and finally found resistance at the 50% Level -> And then price was fought back below the 61% Retracement until it found again support at the last swing low which is also a major support (3 touches in history).

 

Thx for your great contribution.

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

3FX,

 

Was it because it was rejected 5 times previously in long term memory?

 

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5792/swinghilofibgbpjpyd1.gif

 

Rgds

RM

Edited June 9, 2011 by fxfxfx

[harry007]

hi FXFXFX

 

here my pic

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZiXy

 

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZiXy

 

 

cheers

[Diesel 10]

Here is my Homework:

 

4hr EURUSD. Down. Strong Confluence at 50% level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/4hrhomework.gif

 

Daily EURUSD. Up. Strong Confluence at 38.2 level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/dailyhomework.gif

Edited June 9, 2011 by Diesel 10

[fxfxfx]

Hi harry007,

 

Good work :)

I think we are all now price-action specialists :)

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

hi FXFXFX

 

here my pic

 

http://clip2net.com/s/ZiXy

 

 

 

 

 

cheers

[fxfxfx]

Hi Diesel10,

 

I think you are on the right way to become a price-action-junkie like me :)

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

Here is my Homework:

 

4hr EURUSD. Down. Strong Confluence at 50% level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/4hrhomework.gif

 

Daily EURUSD. Up. Strong Confluence at 38.2 level.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/dailyhomework.gif

[⭐ izogrey]

I izogrey,

 

As always I love your sharp analysis ;)

 

Regarding your comment of the S/R line -> The nearer they are - the more powerful they are -> The more price-action confluences they have -> The more powerful they are ;)

 

Continue with your good work and analysis as you will need to do this on a regular basis if you want make cash with this (every serious) system -> But how long do you need for your analysis usually ? I am sure that it does not take soooo much time - Am I right ? ;)

 

Good job

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

 

 

Hi fxfxfx,

 

Yep, you're right. This kind of analysis takes no more than a couple of seconds, under one minute, in any case ( after all the lines and fibos are already on the chart ). The secret is to do it totally detached from the result, just like when seeing a flower, or the clouds on the sky. The result ( which is the analysis itself ) isn't directly extracted by me. It appears from the chart, somehow on its own. I'm just quiet in order to "hear" it ... or "see" it, I don't know. :-)

 

It's very relaxing .. and I must say, in total contrast with what I practiced until now. :-)

 

And a last beautiful prove for this kind of analysis: the line noted "First stop down" has been placed when the price was just breaked down at "Breakout level". Very fine line ....

 

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/8995/aufirststop.gif

 

OK, I'm finished with AU, I will continue analysing and posting only UC, but I will continue the analysis of AU on my own, just because ... I cannot monitor only one pair. It's too boring for me ... :-)

 

And I want to thank fxfxfx for this great contribution, but also to you, the other homeworkers. It's great to see other opinions, styles ... and also it's great to see the unity in all these different opinions. Thank you all !!

 

Cheers

[fxfxfx]

Fibonacci-Cluster at S/R

 

Hi all,

 

Next excercise:

 

Please do this with the last major move:

 

In an up-trend:

Try to find fibonacci-retracements from each low to the highest high of the move.

Do this with every low -> If there is a confluence with a S/R-Line and an other Fibonacci-Level, mark it ;)

Delete fibonacci-retracements where no confluence can be found...

 

In a down-trend:

Try to find fib fibonacci-retracements from each high to the lowest low of the move.

Do this with every high -> If there is a confluence with a S/R-Line and an other Fibonacci-Level, mark it ;)

Delete fibonacci-retracements where no confluence can be found ...

 

Find a pic here:

 

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/7878/fiboclusterconfluence.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

Cheers

 

fxfxfx

[fxfxfx]

Hi izogrey,

 

Thx for you comments ;)

 

As you all may already recognized: These S/R-Lines acts as magnets ;)

 

A short question izogrey: May I ask you what kind of system(s) you used before and how successful are you ?

 

Are you following this thread because of a need or because of interest ?

I am only asking because I would like to know more about the background(s) of the users which are following this thread ...

 

P.S.: I do not see the "Thank you" - button anymore (May I pressed it too much today for all the useful posts which showed when a student made the homework correct)...

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

Hi fxfxfx,

 

Yep, you're right. This kind of analysis takes no more than a couple of seconds, under one minute, in any case ( after all the lines and fibos are already on the chart ). The secret is to do it totally detached from the result, just like when seeing a flower, or the clouds on the sky. The result ( which is the analysis itself ) isn't directly extracted by me. It appears from the chart, somehow on its own. I'm just quiet in order to "hear" it ... or "see" it, I don't know. :-)

 

It's very relaxing .. and I must say, in total contrast with what I practiced until now. :-)

 

And a last beautiful prove for this kind of analysis: the line noted "First stop down" has been placed when the price was just breaked down at "Breakout level". Very fine line ....

 

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/8995/aufirststop.gif

 

OK, I'm finished with AU, I will continue analysing and posting only UC, but I will continue the analysis of AU on my own, just because ... I cannot monitor only one pair. It's too boring for me ... :-)

 

And I want to thank fxfxfx for this great contribution, but also to you, the other homeworkers. It's great to see other opinions, styles ... and also it's great to see the unity in all these different opinions. Thank you all !!

 

Cheers

[alright]

Here'smy homework. Unfortunately I don't know how to delete single lines on the MT4 fibo tool, or I should say when many of them are overlapping, like in this case.

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/7471/201106092130.png

[fxfxfx]

Hi alright,

 

I also do not know this - except to delete the levels in the fib-tool itself.

It is also not needed to delete them.

 

It was only an excercise that you know what I mean by "Fibonaccy-cluster confluence". When we trade we apply this an other way -> But you must know what I mean by that -> And therefore also 1A and good work.

 

And: whow -> With such a speed :)

 

Cheers and thx

 

btw: How are you doin with all this Price-action stuff ? Did you get some trading ideas ? If not - do not worry - I will provide you with a few ;)

 

fxfxfx

 

Here'smy homework. Unfortunately I don't know how to delete single lines on the MT4 fibo tool, or I should say when many of them are overlapping, like in this case.

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/7471/201106092130.png

[⭐ izogrey]

Hi izogrey,

 

A short question izogrey: May I ask you what kind of system(s) you used before and how successful are you ?

 

Are you following this thread because of a need or because of interest ?

 

Cheers

fxfxfx

 

 

I use M1 chart, with 200 SMA typical price on it ( and the channel formed by 200SMA high+200SMA low ). When the price makes a move which intersects the channel, I put a fibo on it and I enter only at pivots on 38.2 . I discovered that this level measures the force of a move. I enter when a pivot is formed at 38.2 and when the Oscar oscillator ( kind of smoothed Sto ) takes off from OB/OS region. I add on subsequent moves in the same direction, when a new pivot appears on a new 38.2 level. I exit at predefined levels from Joe Ross books ... or when my SL is hit ... :-). I control the big picture with M15 and H1 ( where are also the predefined levels ). I should be always very aware when it's a range in order to not evaporate the profit.

 

Pros:

- I am already in when a big move develops;

- SL is small due to M1 chart.

 

Cons:

- very energy consuming - I mean very !!

- I'm not always aware about the range situations;

- if I cannot trade ( because of a job, for example :-) ) the system statistics are altered, with result on the daily profit.

 

The general result is some kind of oscillations at about breakeven, with jumps on green when a big move develops ( because of addings ).

But this kind of system is good for learning, not for a long run trading. At least I cannot resist in a long run with this.

 

This is the reason why I follow this thread: because it's more human than on M1. :-)

 

My homework on UC:

http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/7126/ucfibocluster.gif

 

 

Cheers

[grooter]

And mine. Can not wait for GY to break out from this range to see what will happen :-)

 

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1434/swinghilofibconfluenceg.gif

 

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[alright]

Hi alright,

...

btw: How are you doin with all this Price-action stuff ? Did you get some trading ideas ? If not - do not worry - I will provide you with a few ;)

 

fxfxfx

Well from your statement in your 1st post

I trade PIN-BARS, Inside-Bars, Fake-Breakouts and 2-Bar PIN-Bar candlestick-pattern when they occur at a support/resistance-line in the direction of the trend. If there are additional price-action-confluences like Trendline, Fibonacci-Retracement, Fibonacci-Cluster -> The setup becomes more valid.

I take it, if you look at my picture again, the first arrow would mark the start of a downtrend since the previous low was violated, so we could enter short on a pinbar which formed at the confluence of fib and res line, taking notice as well that the higher resistance looks quite strong as retested and rejected violently a few times. That would have given over 100 pips till the lowest bottom. But here money management would be needed ;)

 

P.S. - was forgetting: risk/reward, considering as SL the high of the blue bar preceeding the pin and as TP at least the low at the point indicated by the 1st arrow, would be 1:1.5

 

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4206/201106092335001.png

Edited June 9, 2011 by alright
added SL and TP

[Diesel 10]

Here is a secret share just for my indo friends in this thread!

 

I have just had professionally coded my own Custom Indicator that may be a help to those who already understand how to plot swings and breaks of them. I have never shared this before but wanted to save it for a special moment...

 

Below is an image of recent EURUSD. In the picture, the indicator is programed to follow fairly large swings however that can be customized whatever way you like. You can also customize how many pips it must break the swing by.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/jt.gif

 

and here it is. Enjoy!

 

http://www.mediafire.com/?xh6quaxcxs91xmt

 

this is for your personal use and not to be resold. Thanks for respecting my wishes on this.

Edited June 9, 2011 by Diesel 10

[fxfxfx]

Hi alright,

 

Very very good !

I see that you exactly analyzed the market AND you could also remember what I said how I trade :)

 

Just food for thought: What if you entered at the 50%-Retracement of the PIN-BAR (not the swing - the bar itself) and put your SL slightly above the high of the pin-bar.

How would the R/R then be ?

 

;)

 

Cheers

 

and thanks for not just following the thread but also actively PARTICIPATING with posts and screenshots.

 

 

Well from your statement in your 1st post

 

I take it, if you look at my picture again, the first arrow would mark the start of a downtrend since the previous low was violated, so we could enter short on a pinbar which formed at the confluence of fib and res line, taking notice as well that the higher resistance looks quite strong as retested and rejected violently a few times. That would have given over 100 pips till the lowest bottom. But here money management would be needed ;)

 

P.S. - was forgetting: risk/reward, considering as SL the high of the blue bar preceeding the pin and as TP at least the low at the point indicated by the 1st arrow, would be 1:1.5

 

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4206/201106092335001.png

[peterpiak]

Here is a secret share just for my indo friends in this thread!

 

I have just had professionally coded my own Custom Indicator that may be a help to those who already understand how to plot swings and breaks of them. I have never shared this before but wanted to save it for a special moment...

 

Below is an image of recent EURUSD. In the picture, the indicator is programed to follow fairly large swings however that can be customized whatever way you like. You can also customize how many pips it must break the swing by.

 

http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w201/jtimpsonstamps/jt.gif

 

and here it is. Enjoy!

 

http://www.mediafire.com/?xh6quaxcxs91xmt

 

this is for your personal use and not to be resold. Thanks for respecting my wishes on this.

 

Thanks so much, you are very good guy.