(Req) Learn how to analyze Macro sentiment. very interesting .

[KING_BUNDA]

What moves the Dollar? The Fed It follows expectations of demand for its currency. The Fed sets the price of money and the US economy reacts. The Federal Open Monetary Policy Committee, led by

Chairman Ben Bernanke, has the goal of maintaining stable prices, maximizing employment and

production, and ensuring liquidity to other banks. They predict these quantities three years in

advance. The committee employs the following tools to conduct monetary policy: buying and selling

securities to change interest rates, establishing a reserve requirement for banks, and changing the

 

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discount window rate used for emergency bank loans. You should pay attention to what the Fed

pays attention to if they are moving the market. They make their decisions based on: CPI, GDP,

Housing starts, Non-farm payrolls (Employment), S&P 500 performance, and retail sales to name

the major ones.

 

The author does not teach Forex anymore this strategy is one of the more Rare gems that has not been shared on the subject of Macro Sentiment

 

His Absolute Goal was to find out how Global Hedge Funds Trade Using Macro Sentiment.

 

Sentiment +Advanced Technical +Advanced Candlestick analysis + TIME = Longterm PIPS

 

the link is offine then online again so anyone that has access or anymore information to share are highly appreciated.

 

Learn how to analyze M@cro sentim3nt. [email protected]/amember/signup.php

 

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Supply and Demand using the Macro Sentiment to guide you to higher probable trade.

 

Sentiment - Introduction

 

The market treats the dollar as a safe haven asset during times of trouble even though it

realizes that the US is piled high in deep debt. The USD for that reason tends to increase rapidly

when there are any threats to the global economy.

 

The more research you do on a market the smarter you will become about that market and understanding the background factors effecting your market will expose the overall Path of Least Resistance. The economy, the markets, business within a sector will follow the Path of Least Resistance and this path is based on expectations: expectations of where the economy is going and how that will affect particular markets.

 

Understanding the background of a market will greatly enhance your understanding long-term market direction and reduce the likelihood of surprises when trading. For instance, spotting a leading indicator of supply could mean that expectations are for an increase in demand and that demand will be fed at higher and higher prices, but if this expectation is out of line, the increased supply will cause a drop in price.

 

If you want to trade the markets, you should know how the markets work and what broad-market or outside influences effects them. The longer the time frame you trade the more influencial broad market fundamentals become. Even an awareness of macro economic theory or of the business cycles could be helpful when trading.

 

Your daily decisions are based on your background information and only partly on what is happening today. Today’s action is heavily influenced by recent background strength or weakness, rather than what is actually happening today

 

Strong holders are usually those traders who have not allowed themselves to be trapped into a poor trading situation. They are happy with their position, and they will not be shaken out on sudden down-moves, or sucked into the market at or near the top. Strong holders are strong because they are trading on the right side of the market...

 

Smart Money with more on fund managers and insitutions. They are well funded and smart, but they have different methods and priorities as to how they reach their goals.This will lead into the very intersting charateristic of Smart Money which is Money Flow.

 

Another inportant aspect of the broad market background is in risk awareness: is the economy moving toward risk appetite or risk aversion? Each will have ramifications in specific markets and sectors. For instance, depending on the degree, risk aversion will cause money to flow into safe havens or take a 'flight to quality'.

 

Like chart indicators, you only need to master a few sentiment indicators, especially if you're specializing in one stock, index, currency pair, etc. But I will try to cover enough on this topic that others interested in following this direction can develop the indicators for their specific market. I'll use the top-down method and start with the Economic Cycle.

 

Learn how to analyze M@cro sentim3nt. [email protected]/amember/signup.php

 

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Keep the thread alive just click Thanks

Edited May 3, 2011 by KING_BUNDA
What moves the Dollar?

[KING_BUNDA]

One of the Authors articles

 

Most market analysis techniques stress the use of past market data to establish trends or

patterns instead of looking at the present and future to determine the true driving force

of price movement. For example, gurus selling technical systems often use trend lines,

patterns, or signals and demonstrate that it works by presenting profitable examples. The problem is,most won’t show you the times that the pattern did not work or how they might have picked just the

right parameters for their signals so that they were profitable using past data. Even if the method

shows a profit without any manipulation of the technique, it is still based on the past and has no

predictive value. To really play the game right, you need to know the rules of the game. If the FX

market is a zero-sum game, where the minority (winners) takes money from the majority (losers) you

better bet that the minority knows the positioning of the majority and what is driving their decisions

to buy or sell. Seeing the past is not enough. Your edge comes from knowing why the majority is

positioned the way it is, and what could shift its fundamental perception.

The driving forces are different for each currency and each time frame; however, it all comes down

to the market’s perception of two things: yield and liquidity (risk aversion). For example, the

Australian economy held high interest rates before the second half of 2008, while Japan had held

low interest rates for at least a decade. Australian assets looked very attractive to investors in Japan

so the Japanese bought them for many years, earning a nice yield. When the global economic crisis

finally materialized in 2008, investors shifted their focus from yield to liquidity. They saw the risk of

massive asset value declines and decided to sell their assets to raise cash (in Yen). Cash is liquid and

offsets risk. Thus the Yen increased in value against the Australian Dollar, a move that reversed

many years of AUD appreciation. Again, if you can understand which of the two driving forces are

taking place, what the market is focusing on, and then recognize when that shifts, you will make

money. It’s as simple as that.

Driving forces

Let’s take a look at the two dominant driving forces in the market: expected yield and demand for

liquidity. In normal and bullish times, the former dominates. In volatile and fearful times, the latter

dominates. When yield dominates it is the interest rate of the economy that attracts investors. High

expected rate of return on foreign assets leads to an inflow of capital. Who sets yields and why?

Every country has its own central bank which acts as a bank for other banks. They control the cost

of credit available to banks, and thus to businesses and consumers. Each central bank has a specific

mandate, but generally it uses short term interest rates to tighten credit when too much inflation

occurs, and to ease credit to provide liquidity when times get tough. The central bank uses economic

indicators to gauge inflation and other economic activity in order to decide what the country’s

interest rate should be. Figure 1 shows how the money/credit cycle works.

 

Fundamental perceptions

We’ve discussed the basic driving forces, but as I often say, fundamental analysis by itself will not

make you consistent money. You must frame the fundamental data into the context of what the

market perceives at the moment. One day inflation data can be important, other days the

 

performance of the stock market will dictate exchange rates. For the medium term (1-6 months),

you should use economic information as well as knowledge of the perception of the market to form

a directional bias. Figure 1 presents typical driving forces separated into the categories of yield or

risk psychology of the market. The market can shift continuously from one driving force to another.

You have to realize that the market players are always trying to get ahead of each other by trying to

find information that will give them an advantage. Then a crowd forms and moves together for a

while, but since most traders are so short-sighted, it’s not long before they move on to a new focus

(whether it is economic data, political speeches, or stock market performance). Find out what the

focus is by reading the news and then track the indicators and central banker speeches that are

important for that category (for example, if US national debt is the concern, track trade balance).

This may sound difficult, but it’s actually not a lot of work. If you go to a few financial news sites or

read investment bank reports you can judge what is important by even just reading the headlines.

This will allow you to form a bias on direction, and change that bias when you start to see a Gestalt

Shift occurring. Remember, it’s impossible to consistently predict what a central bank will do with

interest rates but you can determine what the market focus is and form a bias. You adapt that bias

based on what you know about the other players in the market, which will be covered in the third

part of this series, on sentiment.

Behaviors of the major currencies

Currencies have their own personalities and driving forces just like human beings. Some currencies

are more sensitive to certain types of events, and they move in response to different types of driving

forces. The yen for example, is more sensitive to intervention threats by the Japanese Ministry of

Finance and equity market risk appetite (at the time of writing), whereas the Canadian Dollar is more

sensitive to commodity price movement. Since we know that central banks set the price of money, it

makes more sense to examine the behaviors and motives of each central bank, rather than the

currencies themselves. Since most exchange rates are determined by the Dollar in addition to central

bank actions, the USD will be covered for the rest of this section.

The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Although there are threats of decoupling, China

taking over, and the oil producing countries adopting the Euro, they won’t materialize overnight and

they are simply media hype. The US Dollar will stay as a global reserve currency until it’s clearly

cheaper and riskless to move into another currency. The Dollar is the vehicle currency of the world.

This means that the Dollar is the base currency for international currency transactions. If someone

in Norway wants to buy Argentinian Pesos, they must first convert their Krones to Dollars Learn how to analyze Macro sentiment.

 

 

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Edited May 2, 2011 by KING_BUNDA

[KING_BUNDA]

The Federal Reserve (“Fed”)

What do they care about: Promoting national

economic goals (max employment and production)

and maintaining stable prices. Important indicators:

Employment report (non-farm payrolls), consumer

price inflation, GDP, housing prices, retail sales,

performance of the S&P 500

What are they willing to do: Raise or lower interest

rates by buying and selling government bonds,

changing bank deposit requirements, quantitative

easing (flooding the economy with cash)

Where the clues are: Change in rhetoric in FOMC

meeting minutes/statements and Bernanke

speeches

Bank of England (BOE)

What do they care about: Keeping inflation

consistently at 2.0%. Monetary and financial

stability. Important indicators are GDP,

manufacturing PMI, Halifax housing index, retail

sales, average earnings (employment)

What are they willing to do: Adjust interest rates,

quantitative easing

Where the clues are: Vote counts for each interest

rate decision, BOE quarterly inflation report.

Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance (BOJ,

MOF)

What do they care about: Promoting economic

growth and welfare (especially the recovery from

Japan’s “lost decade” due to deflation). Important

economic indicators are: GDP, Quarterly Tankan

Business survey, Exports

What are they willing to do: Intervene in the

market (MOF) and set interest rates (BOJ)

Where the clues are: Exports are critical for Japan

(esp. Autos). Also: stocks, when the Yen gets to

around/below 100, when former/current MOF

officials talk about the possibility of intervention

European Central Bank (ECB)

What do they care about: Keeping inflation lower

than 2 %, maintaining EUR purchasing power,

providing a stable system of payments. The bank

pays attention to CPI, PMI, GDP, German IFO and

ZEW surveys. They want to make sure the

Eurozone doesn’t fall apart by maintaining a

stable economy.

What are they willing to do: Stubbornly maintain

their stance on interest rates

Where the clues are: Listen carefully to the

keywords Trichet uses in his scripts. How Germany

is doing. Other ECB council members. Political

pressure from Euro member states.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

What do they care about: AUD currency stability,

full employment. They look at: trade balance,

GDP, CPI, commodity prices, retail sales

What are they willing to do: Adjust interest rates

Where the clues are: Stocks. China growth and

demand for commodities. Gold price.

Bank of Canada (BOC)

What do they care about: Low and stable inflation:

1-3 %. The bank looks at potential inflation over an

18-20 month time frame. Important information to

make its decision consists of: Canadian dollar rate,

CPI, employment change, GDP, Ivey PMI, production

What are they willing to do: Adjust interest

 

Learn how to analyze M@cro sentim3nt. [email protected]/amember/signup.php

 

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Edited April 27, 2011 by KING_BUNDA

[KING_BUNDA]

The price move of any security is due in part to market sentiment. When there is little or no news about a security, then market sentiment may be the biggest factor in any price moves in the short run. Even when important news about a particular company or security is published, the resultant price moves are often enhanced or diminished by whether the market is bullish or bearish at that time.

[KING_BUNDA]

Another sentiment indicator considered to be more reliable is the put/call volume ratio, which is the ratio of the total number of puts to the total number of calls traded in 1 day. A put is an option that increases in value if the underlying security decreases in value. So you would buy a put if you expected that the price of the underlying security was going to decline in the near future. A call is an option that increases in value as the underlying security increases in value, so you would buy a call if you expected the price of the underlying was expected to go up soon. The put/call volume ratio is a contrarian indicator, because it is generally at a maximum at market bottoms. Hence, it would seem that uninformed players buy puts when the market has already declined.

[KING_BUNDA]

Market sentiment is often explained as a measure of crowd behavior, which is how people behave under the influence of other people. People have a strong tendency to conform to the crowd, and, thus, will think and act differently in crowds than they would have as individuals uninfluenced by others. Hence, people develop common ideas and common goals and start doing the same things. So when the crowd is buying, most others join in; likewise when they are selling.

 

It is this market psychology that forms the basis of contrarian investing—selling when the masses are buying and buying when they are selling. Contrarian investing could not exist if the efficient market hypothesis were true, since prices would only be determined by fundamentals. Contrarian investing can only exist because prices, more often than not, are determined by market sentiment.

[Marchello]

Going to the site you posted... for payment .. main domain gives the following ( http://thegestaltshift.com/wordpress )>>

 

Not Found (404)

 

Kris Matthews has retired from forex trading coaching.

 

thegestaltshift.com

 

Have no idea to whom payments go to .. as all info of Kris Matthews is mostly deleted/expired/ yet some info is there on google

 

Thanking you in advance

 

PS ../ how about a coupon for 2 week trial ..?.. for II members ..? 8-)

[KING_BUNDA]

I want to bring awareness to this topic so any help is appreciated Marchello at this point Im up for any offers.... Plz anybody with this anywhere

 

Learn how to analyze M@cro sentim3nt. [email protected]/amember/signup.php

 

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Its the only link that works on their site and I think this will be the next to go. AnyOne?

 

All of his material are very hard to find.

Edited April 27, 2011 by KING_BUNDA

[KING_BUNDA]

It is a perceptual shift that causes traders to adopt an entirely different way of thinking. The human mind likes regular, ordered patterns and sees things holistically

instead of looking at things individually. The consequence of this is the arising of standard behavioral tendencies that attempts to make sense of the market but often ignores the market for what it really is. For example, human beings tend to create anchors such as technical levels. for a long time the market may buy EUR/USD due to negative fundamentals in the US. as analysts it is recognizing the event or

information that causes the market to wake up to a fundamentally new concept and begin pricing it in. Look for indications of a shift which can act as a catalyst.

 

 

Learn how to analyze M@cro sentim3nt. [email protected]/amember/signup.php

 

replace @ to (a)

 

Its the only link that works on their site and I think this will be the next to go. AnyOne?

 

All of his material are very hard to find.

[KING_BUNDA]

http://wealthinsideralliance.com/macromillionaire/japan/?aff_id=685

[KING_BUNDA]

This is what the Big BOYS are thinking about and we need to as well.

 

http://wealthinsideralliance.com/macromillionaire/webinarreplay/3-23-11.php?aff_id=664

 

 

click thanks if you are interested.

[KING_BUNDA]

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[KING_BUNDA]

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[KING_BUNDA]

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