News and Reviews European Economic Zone

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Trade Deficit Down Due to Skyrocketing Export Value

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

 

French Customs Agency on Tuesday reported that the French trade deficit fell slightly in October from September due to strong export value of aircraft and weapons.

 

The trade deficit in the country with the second largest economy in the euro zone fell to 4.65 billion euros ($ 5.67 billion) in October from 4.72 billion euros in September.

 

Export boosted by sales of Airbus aircraft valued at 2:49 billion euros compared with 1.95 billion euros in September.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Manufacturing Output Fall In October

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

 

British manufacturing output unexpectedly declined for the first time in five months in October, highlighting the risks to the UK's economic recovery.

 

Output fell by 0.7% after rising 0.6% in September, in the report by the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for an increase of 0.2%.

 

Bank of Englang Mark Carney has left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% last week as officials focus on the threat of the British growth slump in Europe, which is the UK's largest trading partner.

 

Manufacturing, which represents 10.1% of the economy, only the industrial sector recorded a decrease in the monthly rate of output. The mining sector rose 2%, crude oil and gas rose 2.8%, electricity generation rose 0.6% and water supply rose 0.7%.

 

Eight of the 13 categories in manufacturing posted a decline in October, led by a decline of 4.5% in the output of computer, electronic and optical equipment. Pharmaceutical and chemical production also declined.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BCC: Increase in Interest Rates Too Early Raises Risks Large

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

 

The UK economy appears to still be on track to expand at a rapid pace in 2015, but to raise interest rates at this time would cause "substantial risk" to the recovery, according to the British Chambers of Commerce on Wednesday. BCC cut its forecast for economic growth in 2014 and next year, projecting a growth of 3.0% this year, 2.6% next year and 2.4% in 2016. In August, BCC estimates the rate of growth of 3.2% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.5% in 2016.

 

While 2014 will mark the best economic growth in the UK since 2007, the BCC said next year economic and political risks are great, the euro zone economic slowdown and the elections in May. "Trimming on our growth projection is a warning signal that we still face a number of obstacles to get a balanced recovery and durable," said Director General of the BCC, John Longworth. "The economy is strong and balanced only be achieved if there is a commitment from all parties to plan long-term strategies, rather than short-term politics that has spread to the UK's growth prospects for too long."

Longworth also warned against rising interest rates from a record low of 0.5% is too early by the Bank of England. "Our dependence on consumer spending and housing loans means that the UK economy is sensitive to rising interest rates," he said. "The increase in interest rates in the near future could pose a major risk to the economy." BCC estimates that the increase in interest rates to 0.75% the first time will take place in the third quarter of next year, the interest rate reached 1.75% by the end of 2016. So far, only two of the nine members of the BoE's policy board voted to increase interest rates in a few months next.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB Hansson: ECB QE Not Sure Will Decide in January

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

 

Still too early to say whether the European Central Bank policy meeting in January would be too soon to decide whether the central bank will start buying government bonds, according to ECB officials, Ardo Hansson on Wednesday. "I think fluktiasi oil prices make the trend becomes unclear or understanding of current trends is more difficult," said Hansson told reporters in Tallinn. "The problem is inflation data was slightly weaker, but we still have to pay attention to a number of other factors," he added.

 

"We have to analyze the risk and impact of the different policy, we will review the medium-term inflation outlook repopulating and then decide. It is too early or not to decide in January, I think this time we still do not know." The ECB will hold a policy meeting on 22 January selanjutan later.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Trade Deficit Touch Low Level 7 Months

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

 

UK trade deficit narrowed in October to its lowest level in seven years, helped by a decline in fuel imports and a slight increase in the level of exports, according to government data Wednesday. Office for National Statistics said the trade deficit narrowed slightly less than expected into 9620 billion pounds of 10 506 billion pounds in September, when the increase in the level of oil imports helped widen the deficit. Economists expect the trade gap amounted to 9.5 billion pounds in October.

 

Exports in October rose to 24 336 billion pounds, helped by sales of silver to India, while the level of imports fell nearly as much as 700 million pounds. The ONS said the decline in the level of oil imports are the main drivers of deficit reduction, the possibility of showing the recovery of production in the North Sea, where the output during the summer depressed by maintenance. England has relied on domestic demand to sustain economic recovery since the middle of last year. Sharp slowdown in the euro zone in recent months has added to the problem on the government's plan to focus more on the export economy.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB Coeure: TLTRO Loan Disbursement Under the Central Bank Estimates

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

 

Coeure central bank officials give positive comments after reports of liquidity injections second package of programs TLTRO successfully absorbed by the various banks in the euro zone amounted to € 129.8 billion.

 

This result is in the lower range of expectations of investors than the estimated 148.2 billion euros were absorbed, but the result is higher than the previous TLTRO package worth 82.6 billion euros.

 

TLTRO package is a program to provide loans from the central bank ECB for a period of 4 years with the hope that the loan can be disbursed by the Euro zone banks in the private sector.

 

Overall the results are likely to still sustain TLTRO expectations that the ECB will add another stimulus program in the next year with the effort to purchase government bonds worth 1 trillion euros for loan TLTRO 4-year tenor still channeled properly unlikely to trigger economic recovery as the ECB wanted .

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Bank of England Will Be More Open About His policy

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

 

The Bank of England announced a major change in the way of providing information on monetary policy decisions, said it will release the minutes of discussion in conjunction with the announcement of the interest rate from August 2015. BoE today released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee discussions, and the results of 9 voting members, with barely a pause for 2 weeks. BoE on Thursday also said it would start releasing transcripts policy discussions with pauses for 8 years.

 

The first meeting will be covered by the plan of the new transcript will be held in March 2015. Under recana this change, the MPC will hold a meeting for 3 days under the current system and deliberation on the first day will not are reported through the transcript. Other changes are, the BoE said the MPC members were asked to hold a meeting eight times a year, starting in 2016, of 12 times today. Such changes require the approval of the UK parliament. "Today I want to announce the most significant changes in how we present and explain our interest rate decision from the Monetary Policy Committee was formed in 1997," said Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Carney has tried to make the central bank more transparent since taking office in mid-2013 past.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Construction Sector Output Decline in October

Friday, December 12th, 2014

 

Output of England suffered a sharp decline in October, although as the growth in the previous month was revised up and give a boost edged up against the overall economic growth rate in the third quarter. Construction sector output fell as much as 2.2% in October after rising by the same amount in September, according to the Office for National Statistics on Friday. The figure at the annual rate slowed to 0.7%, its lowest level since May 2013, when the UK housing sector market launch strong recovery. Economists estimate the monthly growth rate of 0.7% and 1.3% annual.

 

In a quarterly basis, growth in construction output fell as much as 0.3%. However, there is a sharp upward revision to the previous estimate of the rate of growth in the construction industry. Output of the construction sector in the third quarter rose by 1.6%, compared to the estimate of 0.8%, which can encourage the growth rate of the UK economy in the third quarter of 0.1% to 0.8% if all components of GDP unchanged, said the ONS.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone Industrial Output Only Growing Thin

Friday, December 12th, 2014

 

The level of the euro zone industrial production barely grew in October, indicating a poor start in the fourth quarter. Industrial output in the euro zone rose as much as 0.1%, lower than the estimated increase of 0.2% by economists. Eurostat data also showed production levels rose as much as 0.7% compared to a year ago. The report according to a survey from Markit Economics, which showed the manufacturing sector weakened during 2014. Markit PMI manufacturing sector will be released this month, along with the PMI services sector, on 16 December.

 

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said the risk of a slowdown in the euro zone economy, and today's data can not relieve anxiety ECB officials about the economic outlook. The ECB is currently making a purchase covered bonds and asset-backed securities, and will consider a package of quantitative-easing policy at the next meeting in January. According to Eurostat, the decline in the level of industrial production in November, led by the energy sector fell 1.9%, and capital goods fell 0.2%. Eurostat also said the print decline in industrial output in France, Spain, and Italy, while Germany stagnant.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney: Tax Reform Will Supporting Housing Sector Market

Friday, December 12th, 2014

 

Changes in procedures for house purchase tax in the UK, which was introduced last week, would provide little incentive for the UK housing market, said the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Friday. "I think, in terms of margins, I estimate these changes will prop up the housing market," Carney said in the Evening Standard. However, the change is likely to reduce the level of sales at the top of the market, he added.

 

Last week, finance minister George Osborne remodel UK property purchase tax, which resulted in cuts in the amount of tax paid by the majority of home buyers, but expensive property tax increase.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Bundesbank Signaled Stimulus From ECB

Monday, December 15th, 2014

 

Bundesbank officials that the German central bank signaled that the ECB board member won unanimously to agree on the use of unconventional policies to address the risk of deflation.

 

Deflation risks arising from the sharp fall of oil prices that helped cut its forecast inflation of -0.4% for 2015. The decline in inflation also reflects the level of the more sluggish domestic demand.

 

As a result the ECB board members reach consensus due to the risk of euro zone economic activity weakened leaning, so it is necessary to change the rate and composition of the ECB bond buying program which will start at the beginning of next year.

 

Comments Bundesbank is significant because it was the last time the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann governor did not mention his approval with the view of other members of the ECB council to disburse the stimulus

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

German Manufacturing Index Experiencing Repair

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

 

German PMI manufacturing index rebounded to a high of 2 months at 50.3 and 51.2 exceeded estimates better than the previous month at 49.5 elvel.

 

However, the German service sector index actually dropped to the lowest level in the last 17 months at the level of 51.4, slipping from the previous period in November 52.1.

 

Overall the data of manufacturing and service sector is still in line with the Q4 GDP growth rate in line with the risk of weakening PMI report is in the weakest pace since Q2 2013.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

German and French Economic Data Not Able to Sustain Eurozone

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

 

Manufacturing and service sectors in 18 countries of the euro area barely expanded in December as the growth of business activity in Germany and France still looks sluggish.

 

Markit Economics said that the composite index for the manufacturing and services sector rose to 51.7 from 51.1 in November, up slightly above the level of 51.5 which is an estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Factory index rose to 50.8 from 50.1, while the index for the services sector rose to 51.9 from 51.1.

 

With the French economy is stagnant this year, the Italian who was in a recession and Germany who are struggling to leave the level of the weakest growth in the middle of this year, the European Central Bank is ready to launch further stimulus in the central government is grappling with economic reforms. Some support for the euro zone consumers may be coming from oil prices have dropped more than 40% this year, while the exporters might benefit from a weaker euro.

 

"Growth in the Euro zone activity looks a little faster in December but still looks more attenuation than the surge in the economy towards the end of the year, the fear of weakening still visible in the core countries such as France and Germany," says Chriss Williamson, chief economist Markit in London. "The increase was largely driven by the entire region, where growth reached its highest level in five months to complete the best" area "seen since 2007."

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK inflation Decline to Lowest Level 12-Year

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

 

UK inflation dropped to its lowest level in more than 12 years in November, which relieve pressure on consumers and left the Bank of England without the pressure to raise interest rates soon. UK consumer price index grew at an annual pace of 1.0% in the last month, compared to a 1.3% increase in October, according to the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast UK CPI will grow 1.2% from a year ago.

 

The decline largely reflects the decline in world oil prices. Details of the ONS report shows fuel prices fell by 5.9% compared to November last year, while food prices dropped 1.7% with increasing price war between supermarkets. Slowing the increase in the price of games also contributed to the decline in the inflation rate. While Sterling appreciation in recent months has also helped curb inflation by cutting the price of imports.

 

Bank of England in the last month has been expressed that inflation is expected to drop to below 1% in the next few months, following the fall of crude oil prices

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Work Data England in October result Optimistic

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

 

The unemployment rate in the UK fell to its lowest level in three months in October and wage growth exceeded inflation for the first time since March as the labor market continues to recover.

 

Wage growth rose by 1.4% from a year ago, up from 1% in the third quarter, in the report by the Office of National Statistics in London on this day. The number of unemployed is measured based on the method of the International Labor Organization as much as 63,000 dropped into 1.96 million. The report left the unemployment rate at 6%, it is the lowest level since 2008. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 5.9%.

 

Strengthening labor market and anxiety at the possibility of increased pressure on wages has made two BOE policy makers to push up interest rates. The central bank last week kept interest rates at record lows at the level of 0.5%, where it had stood since March 2009.

 

The data show that the number of people working rose as much as 115,000 to a record high 30.8 million. The number of claims for unemployment benefits fell as much as 26.9000 in bullae November, was greater than the estimated 20,000 and reduce the unemployment rate to 2.7%.

 

An increase of 1.4% in wages in the last period compared with 1.3% inflation in October. Outside bonuses, wage growth rose to 1.6% from 1.2%

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BoE: Positive Impact of Oil Prices Fall For The rate of UK GDP

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

 

World crude oil prices fall quite sharply lately possibility boost economic growth in the UK, concluded by BoE officials within minutes of the MPC monetary policy meeting some time ago.

 

MPC meeting minutes released Wednesday showed that 9 MPC board members take a vote 7 versus 2 to keep the benchmark rate at the level of 0.5% BoE and won unanimously to maintain the asset purchase program unchanged at 375 billion pounds, equivalent to $ 589.56 billion.

 

BoE official Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty still hawkish than the other board members to recommend a hike in interest rates to as low as 0.75% in order to maintain long-term inflation risks. However, the majority of the MPC concluded that weak wage growth rate, as well as commodity prices fall factor will likely restrain inflationary pressures.

 

Approximately 35% of the fall in oil revenue denominated in pound sterling since June should be able to boost the purchasing power of consumers and sustain global demand so that the rate of growth in the UK remained stable. Therefore, the MPC committee saw the fall of oil became a separate stimulus for economic activity of Great Britain and its major trading partners in Europe

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Euro Drops Sharply Due Comment ECB Coeure

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

 

2 weeks later after the Bundesbank stated its agreement to disburse the ECB's policy of non-conventional in addressing the risk of deflation, ECB board member Coeure provide aggressive statement that the consensus of the ECB today shows that the central bank should take additional steps to raise inflation and economic mendongrak.

 

Surely this comment investors responded that the QE program in the form of asset purchases of government bonds will be implemented though Coeure not explain in detail that the ECB extra steps like.

 

As a result of pairing EURUSD -0.82% fell sharply at the level of 1.2408 so far, away from daily highs at 1.2514 and intraday lows at 1.2406.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

Swiss Exports Down, Central Bank Deposit Interest Rate Change

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

 

Two important news coming from Switzerland today. Data export of the country fell in November and the central bank will set a negative interest rate per January 22, 2015.

 

Swiss exports slowed in November 2014 due to a decrease in the volume of demand for machinery products, electronics and watches. Export November fell 2.9% compared to the same period last year (real terms and adjusted for inflation) to 18.06 billion francs ($ 18.6 billion). Meanwhile, if calculated in nominal terms, Switzerland exports fell 0.2%.

 

The volume of imports of the country touched the numbers 14:19 billion francs, equivalent to a decrease of 12.1% (real terms) than in 2013 and 11.4% (nominal terms). Thus, the Swiss trade surplus increased from 3.23 billion to 3.87 billion francs. By sector, exports of watches in November fell 4.4% with a total value of 2.06 billion francs.

 

On the same day, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) follow the European Central Bank to cut interest rates on deposits in line with its commitment to limit the franc exchange rate. Euro exchange rate jumped 0.5% to 1.2073 francs into. Loose policy of the European Central Bank imposed forced the SNB to desperately hold the exchange rate at the level of 1.20 per Euro. Negative deposit rate is a way to reduce the attractiveness of the franc in the eyes of foreign investors.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Opposition Party Potential Wins Election Greece

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

 

Greek Prime Minister Samaras outvoted in the first round of presidential election voting by the Greek parliament. Samaras reportedly only get 160 votes, thus requiring 20 votes more than the independent camp or smaller parties to avoid accelerated national elections early next year.

 

With two rounds of voting scheduled for next December 23 and December 29, a victory for the government in power at this time is difficult to be expected, but the first round of voting results below estimates.

 

Of the 300 MPs, 160 voted for the candidate vote Stavros Dimas, with 135 vote against and 5 abstentions, less than 200 vote majority needed to vote the President in the first round.

 

The results of the poll while mengindasikan that Greece is likely to be won elections leftist Syriza party that promises renegosisasi international bailout on Greek deal needed to maintain the stability of state funding.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Business Confidence Up in December

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

 

The level of business confidence in Germany rose for the second month in a sign that the country with the largest economy in Europe is able to overcome the weakness that hit them at the beginning of this year.

 

Business climate index from the Ifo institute, which beradasarkan survey of 7,000 executives, rose to the level of 105.5 in December from 104.7 in November, which is when it rose for the first time in seven months. These results are in accordance with the median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

 

The Bundesbank said that the German economy is showing signs of strengthening after stagnating in the middle of this year and is on track "moderate early" for the fourth quarter. Even so, the recovery will probably come more slowly to help the euro area economy, which makes the European Central Bank considers fatherly buying government bonds to prevent deflation Eurozone.

 

"There is ample evidence that our current toward a moderate recovery than memasuk new recession," said Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. "But it will be slow to get where the ECB wants inflation."

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Euro Zone Construction Activity Rises in October

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

 

Construction activity in the 18-nation euro currency users increased at the fastest pace this year in October, which is an indication that while the interests of households and businesses to invest began to show a slight improvement.

 

Report of the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, Thursday showed construction grew 1.3% from September, the biggest monthly gain since December 2013.

 

Having started the year 2014 with a strong, construction sector activity has decreased in the 2nd quarter and 3rd ago, which contributed to a slowdown in the currency bloc in the second period. Investment spending also slumped in the 2nd quarter, indicating if the business sector is not sure the economy will be able to expand quite strongly in the next few years to generate profit growth. Their reluctance to invest also curb the recruitment of new workers.

 

Other data released by Eurostat on Thursday also showed the level of jobs unchanged at 1.6% in the 3rd quarter, which indicates the growth of the job market will not accelerate and keep the unemployment rate at near record highs.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

France Business Sentiment Unchanged in December

Friday, December 19th, 2014

 

The level of business confidence in France stable in December, in the report by the French statistics bureau Insee on Friday.

 

Insee said that the readings for the level of confidence in December was at 99, unchanged from November. Meanwhile business leaders say bookkeeping orders from abroad to be stronger in the current outlook for their production stagnant.

 

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated the level of business confidence in December was still at the same level as in November.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Surplus Balance Walking Down the Euro zone in October

Friday, December 19th, 2014

 

Euro zone current account surplus narrowed in October from a revised increase in surplus in September, due to a surplus in both the goods and services declined, the data show by the European Central Bank on Friday.

 

Balance sheet runs, which is the broadest measure of the financial position of the international economy, showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros ($ 25.24 billion) in October, down from 32 billion euros in September, the ECB said.

 

The surplus for goods fell to 19.3 billion euros in October from 21.6 billion euros in September, while the surplus in the services sector shrank to 5.5 billion euros from 10.4 billion euros.

 

For a period of 12 months to October, a surplus of 2.5% of GDP Euro zone.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Booking Italy Industry Up in October

Friday, December 19th, 2014

 

The number of industrial orders in Italy increased in October, thanks to the improvement in domestic demand.

 

Booking industry rose by 0.1% on a monthly level, restore a decrease of 1.5% in September, in the report by the Italian statistics bureau Istat on Friday, using the data seasonally adjusted. Total bookings fell by 0.2% at an annualized rate in the time that has not been adjusted, Istat added.

 

Monthly increase in October led to an increase of 1.5% in domestic bookings, especially from the transportation sector, including vehicles, trains and ships.

 

Istat official said that the signs of improvement in domestic demand is a good sign for the Italian economy.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

CBI: Companies in the UK might be an increase of wage in 2015

Monday, December 22, 2014

 

The companies in the UK are planning to loosen the rules of wage increases in the epidemic in 2015, but the increase will be limited by increased costs for holiday overtime pay and pensions, as well as weak productivity growth, according to the Confederation of British Industry on Monday. 43% of companies participating in the survey said they intend to raise wages in the next wage review at a rate equal to the retail price index, and 12% of the company said it would raise more, according to the CBI. This is compared to 42% and 7% respectively in the same survey last year, the CBI said.

 

"Gradually, as the recovery has strengthened, the number of companies planning to stop the wage increase has been reduced significantly and more companies seem quite optimistic to start raising the level of wages," said deputy director general of the CBI, Katja Hall. Bank of England are monitoring the rate of wage growth, which has lagged far behind inflation since the financial crisis but has recently been showing signs of recovery, considering time as interest rates rise. The size of RPI inflation was at 2.0% in October.

CBI companies estimate labor costs to rise as a result of changes in the wage calculation holidays and new requirements on companies to put employees in a pension scheme. Hall said the business is also concerned about the issue of the existence of more stringent regulations terhadpa immigration, which can make the company more difficult to get the right staff, and is in the range of wages.