Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: EUR has a good reason to weaken

 

Analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency is set to weaken. Here’s their reasoning.

 

According to the bank, the dynamics of EUR/USD used to be in reverse correlation with German credit default swap spreads*, seen as a proxy for German bunds’ safe-haven status. However, in the last months this relation “has totally collapsed”. The 5-year German CDS spread has dropped from above 1% in late June to little more than 0.5% today on safe-haven flows. If the previous inverse correlation had held, this should have been reflected in a firmer euro. However, the currency has slid from $1.26 at the end of June to $1.2450 today.

 

According to Commerzbank, that’s because a new driver has emerged – the ECB with its rate cut in early July. As a result, the bank concludes that the more aggressive and “unconventional” the ECB turns out to be on September 6, its next meeting, the more we have to fear that the negative effects might dominate: “So in the end, the euro is stuck between two risks: more political crisis-fighting activity, which will reduce German bunds’ safe-haven status and weaken EUR/USD this way; or more ECB action, which might be EUR-negative, too. We therefore remain bearish on EUR/USD and still expect an exchange rate level around $1.20 by the end of this year, and some level below $1.15 by the end of 2013.”

 

* CDS is insurance against default on a bond or bond-like security. The the price of the CDS reflects the market expectation that the issuer will default. The price of a credit default swap is referred to as its “spread”. For example, right now a Citigroup CDS has a spread of 255.5 bp, or 2.555%. That means that, to insure $100 of Citigroup debt, you have to pay $2.555 per year.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/bloom.png

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

August 22: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

Demand for the high-yielding currencies is low as the risk aversion increased. The Australian and New Zealand dollars weaken following the Asian stocks ahead of tomorrow PMI releases in Europe and China. Reports are predicted to show continued contraction in German and French manufacturing. The flash euro-area manufacturing PMI is to indicate contraction for a 13 consecutive month. A report on Chinese manufacturing from HSBC is also due. What’s more, AUD and NZD are under pressure ahead of the housing market data (14:00 GMT) and the Fed meeting minutes (18:00 GMT) as the expectations for QE3 are likely to drop.

 

AUD/USD slid to $1.0435 levels, while NZD/USD – below $0.8100. USD/CAD bounced back from an almost four-month low after touching 0.9840 yesterday.

 

EUR/USD put on the brakes after adding more than 100 pips on Tuesday. The pair’s trading a bit on the downside consolidating after reaching $1.2487 yesterday. Again there’s no major macroeconomic EUR-related data today. Germany will sell up to 5 billion euro in 2-year notes at 06:00 GMT. Yesterday’s Spanish auction was successful enough and the nation’s 10-year yields declined for the 10th day in a row to 6.2%. Also note that more volatility this week may come from the meeting of European leaders. Today Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras meets Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Euro Group.

 

GBP/USD has conquered new highs around $1.5800 yesterday. USD/JPY kept descending from more than a month maximum at 79.65 to the support of 200-day MA. USD/CHF dropped to August minimum of 0.9620.

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2300, $1.2450, $1.2460, $1.2500, $1.2525;

 

GBP/USD, $1.5620, $1.5785, $1.5800;

 

USD/JPY: 79.15, 79.50, 79.65;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0500;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7780;

 

AUD/NZD: 1.3010.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

Westpac: loonie may keep strengthening

 

Although some experts expect USD/CAD reverse upwards, analysts at Westpac have are bullish on loonie.

 

The specialists point out that Canadian economic data released so far is mixed: GDP increased in June, but so did the trade deficit and the July unemployment rate. Even so, the Bank of Canada has “maintained its hawkish rhetoric” and it’s “potential plus for the Canadian dollar.”

 

In addition, Westpac thinks that CAD was draw support from investor positioning. Net long loonie positions rose at the beginning of August, but they are “still only a third of the long positions in May,” so there are plenty of investors who could pile into the currency if they see signs that loonie strength is coming.

 

According to Westpac, if market conditions keep improving, “prospects for higher Canadian policy rates should support the loonie’s broad outperformance. Long-speculative positioning is relatively light, which should also be a positive for the currency.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/0928loonie375.jpg

 

Image from canada.com

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

AUD/USD: slowed uptrend

 

On Wednesday AUD/USD touched $1.0430 and trades below the yesterday’s minimum. The pair broke below the strong support at $1.0435 as the BHP Billiton, Anglo-Australian multinational mining company, posted a 35% fall in H2 profits. AUD/USD remains close to the lower boundary of the upward channel, existing since June.

 

It’s interesting to note that this time the downward correction within the upward channel is flat in comparison to previous steep waves of correction and reminds of a “rounded top” pattern. In our view, a daily close below $1.0410 (August 17 minimum) will pave the ground for a further decline, potentially to $1.0290 (200-day MA). If Aussie breaches this support, this would be a strong bearish signal. On the upside strong resistance lies at $1.0475 (beginning of a May decline) and at $1.0500.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/audusd_11-39.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

EUR/USD: news from the battlefield

 

EUR/USD is consolidating after reaching the 7-week high at $1.2487 yesterday.

 

Commerzbank: The outlook for EUR/USD is bullish as long as it’s trading above Tuesday’s minimum at $1.2342. Euro may rise to $1.2500 and probably to $1.2600 before the medium term downtrend resumes its course. Medium term bearish outlook is while “the 1.2705/48 resistance area caps on a weekly New York closing basis”.

 

There is the talk of options barrier at $1.2500. Barrier option is a type of option whose payoff depends on whether or not the underlying asset has reached or exceeded a predetermined price. Once the price gets to option barrier both buyers and sellers liven up making the trade more unpredictable. Support/resistance levels are shown on the chart.

 

BBH: “The euro has risen not on action but on expectations about what the ECB could do, but it remains to be seen if these expectations are followed up with action. We don't know how long these expectations can keep pushing up the euro, and in the meantime, it remains vulnerable to any bad news.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/h4_eurusd_11-47.gif

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

GBP/USD broke above $1.5800

 

GBP/USD finally broke above the $1.5762/80 resistance area. Yesterday the pair didn’t manage to close above the $1.5800 level, but today reached $1.5816 and remains above the 50% Fib. retracement of a May decline.

 

If today’s US data releases (FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales) will give any hint about QE3, GBP/USD is likely to close the day above $1.5800. If not, support is seen at $1.5745 (100-day MA), $1.5730 (upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud), $1.5715 (200-day MA) and at $1.5700. On a weekly chart the pair entered the Ichimoku cloud, the upper boundary lies at $1.0600.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/gbpusd_13-13.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: bears on NZD/USD

 

According to analysts at Commerzbank, NZD/USD might have ended a minor corrective move higher at $0.8145 (August 21 maximum) and is now declining towards $0.8037 (August minimum).

 

In their view, the uptrend channel support line, connecting June and July minimums, remains in focus. A break below would lead to $0.7808 (July minimum) and then to 0.7458 (June minimum). Resistance is seen at $0.8146 (August 21 maximum) and $0.8220 (August highs).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/nzdusd_14-59.gif

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

TD Securities: FOMC minutes won’t say much

 

Analysts at TD Securities think that the FOMC meeting minutes won’t clarify in any way what are the Fed’s plans concerning monetary policy.

 

“For starters, if one is looking for signals, the Fed does not rely on the minutes to signal policy shifts. That is what speeches, testimonies, and other public venues are used for." At the same time, there may be some comments about other policy tools: "After all, that is the topic of the Jackson Hole speech and was clearly the topic at the August meeting”.

 

So, the specialists advise traders to temper expectations as the great revelation today is unlikely.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/fomc.jpg

 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in command of the FOMC - centralbanking.com

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

EUR/JPY: technical update

 

EUR/JPY is rising since the end of July when it hit the minimal levels since 2000 around 94.10 yen. The pair has entered the descending daily Ichimoku Cloud for the first time since it broke below the cloud in early May. On the downside, the Cloud’s bottom will provide support for the single currency.

 

Euro’s currently testing the 98.65 level (61.8% Fibo retracement of the decline from June 21 maximum). If EUR/JPY gets higher, it will get chance to revisit 101.60 yen.

 

At the same time, EUR/JPY still remains within longer-term downtrend and at some point it’s likely to return to the 94.00 zone. Analysts at MIG Bank recommend looking for “signs of weakness closer to the resistance at 101.63 to initiate a short position”.

 

We concede a correction towards 98.00 (50% Fib. retracement and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud). What’s more, on the H4 chart RSI indicator is close to 70.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/22_08_12/daily_eurjpy_16-48.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

August 23: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

On Wednesday the main market event was the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Many Fed policymakers think additional stimulus probably will be needed soon unless the economy shows signs of a rebound. On the back of this data EUR/USD reached a 6-week high at $1.2552. Today’s session may bring plenty of potentially negative data for the single currency: German final GDP, German and French PMIs and EU flash PMI (7:00-8:00 GMT). In the US initial jobs claims will be printed at 12:30 GMT and new home sales – at 14:00 GMT. A meeting between Merkel and Hollande scheduled for today could offer enough news to move the pair either way.

 

High-yielding currencies such as AUD and NZD also rocketed on Fed’s news, offsetting previous losses they suffered ahead of today’s PMI releases in Europe. However, there growth was limited after HSBC China PMI printed the lowest level of 2012 at 47.8, down from 49.3 in July. AUD/USD, therefore, reached $1.0544, but then slid to the levels around $1.0500. NZD/USD jumped to $0.8184 on easing prospects, but then slipped to the $0.8160 area. USD/CAD trades around 0.9890.

 

GBP/USD rose to $1.5907 after a three-day growth. The pair will be strongly influenced by the EU data. USD/JPY trades around 78.55 yen after a drop to 78.30 on the Fed (lowest since August 13).

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

AUD/USD: technical picture

 

AUD/USD trades around $1.0500, on the upside for the fourth day in a row. On the H4 chart Aussie’s consolidating in the $1.0535/0420 band. The general uptrend since June is still intact.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/h4_audusd_10-51.gif

 

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

Although US dollar was weakened by the talks of more easing from the Fed, AUD/USD doesn’t hurry to renew the recent highs around $1.0600: there’s a strong resistance there coming from the line which connects 2011 and 2012 maximums. For now the pair still has some scope for the sideways moves. According to analysts at NAB, AUD/USD is likely to trade above $1.0500 in a near-term as the greenback will remain under pressure at least until Jackson Hole.

 

Note that there are plenty of resistance levels on the upside (see the chart). Once $1.0420 support is breached, we’d look for a decline to another critical level of $1.0280 (200-day MA). Strategists at RBC are bearish on AUD/USD despite the fact the pair performed well over the past year and expect the RBA to lower rates by 0.75% in the next 12 months – the action which would weaken Aussie.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/daily_audusd_10-58.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

GBP/USD: an impressive advance

 

On Thursday GBP/USD tested the levels above $1.5900 (61.8% Fibo retracement from the May decline). This week the pair demonstrates impressive growth, climbing more than two big figures since Monday, when it was trading below $1.5700.

 

Sterling was pushed up by easing hints from the US (dovish FOMC meeting minutes) and China (weaker HSBC PMI). Tomorrow we expect the release of the revised Q2 UK GDP. The market expects UK Q2 GDP to be revised upwards from -0.7% to -0.5% q/q.

 

After such advance British currency is clearly overbought (see the RSI at H4 chart), so some correction’s on its way. The general outlook for the pair will remain positive as long as it’s trading above 200-day MA at $1.5715. Once above $1.5930, the pair will be on its way to $1.6000.

 

From a technical point of view, next resistance for GBP/USD lies at $1.5930 (February 8 maximum), $1.6000 (March 27 maximum, psychological level). On a downside, next support lies at $1.5785 (50% retracement), $1.5750 (50-day MA), $1.5715 (200-day MA), $1.5660 and $1.5620.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/daily_gbpusd_12-02.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

The Fed: what's next? The bets

 

So, the Fed!

 

The minutes of the FOMC most recent meeting released yesterday showed many policy makers favor additional accommodative measures to be taken “fairly soon” to stimulate growth unless the US economic recovery strengthens. Such news made US dollar weaken versus the majority of its main counterparts.

 

The next FOMC meeting takes place on September 12-13. Also note that Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole will take place on August 30-September 1. The Fed keeps its benchmark rate near zero since December 2008 and pledged to do so until the end of 2014. The central bank has conducted 2 rounds of asset purchases totaling $2.3 trillion in 2008-2011.

 

BNP Paribas: “The minutes were quite dovish and are consistent with our economists’ view that QE3 is more likely than not in September.”

 

Wells Fargo: “They’re closer to doing QE3 than I would have guessed. It may not be September. It could be October.”

 

Capital Economics: “The probability of Fed action coming in mid-September now seems to be higher. One or two of us economists thought the slightly better data in recent weeks might have put the Fed off, but I wouldn’t have thought so reading these minutes.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/images.jpg

 

Photo from fxtimes.com

 

 

Still, there are deep disagreements within the Fed on the costs and benefits of bond-buying programs. The minutes showed Fed officials decided not to act right away because they wanted to gather more data on the economy and evaluate how earlier measures were working. Since the Fed last met at the beginning of August, US economic data has improved pushing S&P 500 almost to a 4-year high, though the labor market remains a concern.

 

Mizuho: “The minutes were surprisingly dovish. With US easing expectations rekindled, the dollar could stay under pressure for a while, at least until Jackson Hole. The Fed will probably refrain from taking drastic easing action due to the upcoming US presidential elections... while keeping a vigilant stance against downside risks in the US economy.”

 

Credit Agricole: Another round of QE is “inconceivable” in the light of recent rises in commodities prices, signs of stability in the European debt crisis and recent improvement in U.S. economic indicators. Additional measures, if any, would be limited to those such as extending the current policy guidance of keeping short-term interest rates near zero at least through 2014.

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

USD/JPY: back below 200-day MA

 

USD/JPY dropped yesterday by more than 70 pips breaching 200- and 50-day MAs. The pair’s now trying to return above the previous resistance of 78.60 (the top of the sideways channel with existed in the first half of the month.

 

Credit Agricole: Since there is limited scope for the dollar to fall further (the risk of Japan’s intervention), dip-buying should keep the greenback in a 78.00/79.80 range over the next week.

 

Sumitomo Mitsui: “When the Fed eases its policy, the dollar could fall below 78 yen. But I don't expect the dollar to fall substantially below 78 yen before any actual easing by the Fed.”

 

Commerzbank: Medium term bullish view on USD/JPY as long as it’s staying above 77.90 (August 1 minimum). The target is 80.00 on the upside, 77.64 (June minimum) on the downside.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/daily_usdjpy_14-00.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

MIG Bank: EUR/GBP will decline

 

Analysts at MIG Bank claim that as long as EUR/GBP is trading below 0.7963 (August 6 maximum), its upward move will be regarded as correction. In their view, the pair will return to the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000 within which it was trading in 2003-2007. The specialists recommend selling euro around 0.7960 targeting 0.7760/0.7400 (July minimums/2008 minimums).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/weekly_eurgbp_15-44.gif

 

Weekly. EUR/GBP

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

CIBC: outlook for forex majors

 

Analysts at CIBC World Markets note that during August there has been some cautious optimism with respect to the global growth outlook and notes this has prompted a rally in risk assets and currencies.

 

At the same time, CIBC thinks that the greenback may strengthen as the demand for its main alternatives – EUR and GBP – will be undermined by recessions in the euro area and in the UK. Moreover, any disappointing news about Chinese economic growth may increase pressure on commodity currencies and support USD as safe haven. American currency will be also helped by any delays of the Fed’s further QE. Such delays may happen as US economic performance has so far improved and US economy continues to growth at a moderate pace.

 

According to CIBC, both CAD and AUD are trading at unsustainable levels. The analysts expect CAD to fluctuate around parity versus USD in coming quarters: the catalysts for a further rally in the Canadian dollar are difficult to identify, as interest rates are unlikely to move higher and there is modest global demand for Canadian exports, though Canada retains top credit rating. AUD remains the most overvalued major currency, its strength doesn’t correspond Australian economic fundamentals.

 

As for EUR, CIBC think that it will be vulnerable until the ECB to show greater resolve and the euro region returns to growth. CIBC expects JPY to keep trading at the elevated levels. There is another round of global risk aversion before the end of this year CIBC sees scope for a reversal in US treasury-Japanese government bond spreads, so capping upside gains in the USD/JPY.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/23_08_12/money.jpg

 

Image from whitneycarter.wordpress.com

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

August 24: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

As it has become usual during the recent days EUR/USD was in a very narrow range during the Asian session. Yesterday EUR renewed 6-week maximum at $1.2589. Greek Prime Minister Samaras visits German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. On Thursday Merkel said that her country and France will coordinate on their approach to keep pressure on Greece to overhaul its economy.

 

JPY strengthened versus the majority of its counterparts this week as demand for safe havens increased due to declines in Asian stocks and weakening global economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares is down by 1.1%. S&P 500 slid by 0.8% in New York yesterday, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell by 0.6%. USD/JPY is back down from Monday’s high of 79.65 to the levels below 78.60. BOJ Gov Shirakawa speaks today at 7:45 GMT.

 

AUD depreciated this week as RBA’s Stevens said today that he did not intervene to the currency market, but pointed out that Aussie was higher than he expected. Stevens also claimed that Australian mining boom has another year or 2 left before it peaks. AUD/USD is testing support at $1.0420.

 

UK Q2 revised GDP is due at 8:30 today. Analysts expect an upward revision from -0.7% to -0.5% q/q. GBP/USD is down from 3-month high of $1.5912 reached yesterday. Also pay attention to US core durable goods orders (12:30 GMT).

 

Have a nice Friday!

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2510, $1.2550;

 

GBP/USD: $1.5700;

 

USD/JPY: 78.50, 79.55. 79.75'

 

AUD/USD: $1.0290, $1.0300.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

EUR/USD: news from the battlefield

 

EUR/USD is trading about 50 pips below 6-week maximum at $1.2589 reached yesterday.

 

Sumitomo Mitsui: “Various potential pitfalls for the euro are coming up, so people want to sell when it rises. They sell and then buy back, sell and then buy back. There has been a continuation of that. The moves that have taken place are nothing more than position unwinding. Such unwinding may persist in the near term given a recent accumulation of short euro positions.”

 

Commerzbank: EUR/USD has already practically reached the targets $1.2597 (78.6% Fib) and $1.2600 by printing a daily maximum around $1.2590. The medium term downtrend will eventually resume. We’ll understand that this is happening when euro drops below $1.2342 (Tuesday’s minimum). We’ll stop speaking about correction and will admit euro’s strengthening when the single currency overcomes resistance of $1.2705/48.

 

Rise above $1.2590 may trigger further advance of EUR/USD to $1.2626 (June 7 maximum) and $1.2668 (June 11 maximum). Decline below yesterday’s minimums at $1.2523 would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next downward target at $1.2410.

 

Watch USA durable goods at 12:30 GMT.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/h4_eurusd_12-08.gif

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

NZD: technical picture

 

NZD/USD tested yesterday an important resistance of 0.8200 (2008 maximums, resistance line connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums). Yesterday’s daily candle looks very bearish.

 

NZD has support at 0.8100 (late June maximums), 0.8040 (August minimums) and 0.8000 (around here daily MAs intersect).

 

New Zealand released trade balance data: the nation’s trade surplus narrowed from 287M revised in June to 15M in July. Note, however, that with all the talk about potential easing from the major central banks, so it will very difficult for the bears to push the pair lower.

 

Analysts at NAB say: “As speculation regarding further quantitative easing from the Fed is renewed we see the NZD/USD finding eventual support and backing. Despite the volatility associate with the currency and the upcoming events, over the medium term we see the NZD/USD supported by relative growth and interest rate differentials, and maintain a year-end target of 0.8200.”

 

Commerzbank keeps insisting on the close coming downward reversal underlining that there’s resistance at 0.8223 (recent maximum) and 0.8260 (March resistance).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/daily_nzdusd_13-22.gif

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

There’s the scope for some consolidation in the short term. The situation at H4 doesn’t look bad, kiwi isn’t overbought.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/h4_nzdusd_13-25.gif

 

Chart. H4 NZD/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

MIG Bank: trading GBP/USD

 

GBP/USD is experiencing a correction after a rally to 3-month maximum of $1.5912 (61.8% Fibo retracement from May decline).

 

Analysts at MIG Bank are bullish on British currency. The specialists say that sterling is likely to retreat to previous high at $1.5800, but then it will resume growth as it managed to break to the upside its 2-month consolidation. The bank recommends placing buy limit at $1.5810 targeting 1.5912/1.6190/1.6302 at stopping at $1.5708.

 

On a downside, support lies at $1.5785 (50% retracement), $1.5750 (50-day MA), $1.5715 (200-day MA), $1.5660 and $1.5620. Resistance for GBP/USD lies at $1.5930 (February 8, April 10 maximum), $1.6000 (March 27 maximum, psychological level).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/daily_gbpusd_14-43.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

USD/JPY: dollar may still recover

 

USD/JPY has been declining since Monday. The pair recoiled down from the 100-day MA and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and returned to the previous sideways range within which it was trading in the first half of August. On the downside US dollar is supported by the risk of Japan’s interventions, on the upside – limited by the MAs and the recent highs.

 

USD may once again try to reach 80.00 yen, but we don’t this will happen last now. The final week of August will be highlighted with the expectations of more QE and this has to be a restraining factor for US currency.

 

Next week watch for US preliminary Q2 GDP and pending home sales. Both indicators are expected to improve. Standard Chartered believe that Japanese CPI data due next week will likely intensify concerns about deflationary pressure.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank stick to medium-term bullish view saying that USD/JPY will be targeting 80.00 as long as it trades above 77.90 (August minimum). Barclays sees see little downside risk from these levels, given Japanese policymakers' focus on the level of USD/JPY, while relative monetary policy and the risk of a sovereign downgrade suggest significant USD/JPY upside.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/24_08_12/daily_usdjpy_16-45.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

August 27: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/27_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

After its descent from maximums around $1.2590 EUR/USD manage to hold above $1.2500. The pair passed Asian session flat above this level. Watch for German Ifo business climate at 08:00 GMT – the report may show that the indicator fell to a 2-year low (Cons.: 102.7; prev.: 103.3). German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble meets his French counterpart Pierre Moscovici today to discuss Greek budget targets.

 

Today we’ll hear from the FOMC officials: Chicago FRB President Evans speaks at 10:00 GMT, while Cleveland FRB President Sandra Pianalto – at 16:15 GMT. France and Germany will sell short-term treasury bills.

 

UK Markets are closed for the bank holiday. GBP/USD went down from last week’s maximum at $1.5912 to trade above $1.5800. The People’s Bank of China lowered yuan’s fixing by the most in 3 weeks and the government urged greater support for exporters. AUD/USD touched $1.0370 and then consolidated above 15 pips from this point. USD/JPY rose from last week’s lows in the 78.30 area, but remained below resistance at 78.80.

 

Asian stocks show mixed results, with Nikkei +0.54% and Shanghai -0.84%, and all the rest in the middle. Gold reached today 4-month maximum of $1677.

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

[fallenDC]

CFTC traders positioning data

 

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for week ended on August 21 was released on Friday, August 24, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

 

Large currency speculators continued to decrease their overall USD long positions which declined during a week from $8.92 to $4.57 billion. The market’s sentiment for EUR improved after dipping the previous week. GBP positions switched from short to long ones. CAD longs rose a fourth consecutive week and surged to their best level since May 15. AUD long positions climbed to the highest level since April 12, 2011. NZD longs increased for an 11th straight week and continued to be at the highest level since the beginning of March.

 

Take a look at the following table.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/27_08_12/cftc.png

 

 

It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

 

In the COT report all the market players are divided into three categories: hedgers (commercials), big speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (non-reportable positions). We analyze only non-commercial positions (mainly, these are banks and investment funds).

 

 

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!