EURUSD - important res/supp levels for day-traders

[coldrecs]

For the short term I consider EURUSD a little overbought. This is why over the european trading time I don’t expect very much upside. Still, over medium term (4h and daily) I see neutral condition and this is why over the NY session and maybe even early next week the upside tendency could continue.

I see first resistance near 1,3380 but this level could be reach today during NY session. Next resistance comes near 1,3410 and after that only 1,3485 is a possible level (both fibo and previous high).

To the downside I see support near 1,3270 and below that 1,3170 strong support level comes into play.

My opinion is that for the next 24 trading hours we will rather see 1,3380 and possibly 1,3410 than 1,3270.

 

For today I have 4 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

EURUSD - important res/supp levels for the next 24hours

 

The pair ended the week on a bearish note, the reason being new fears related to the public debt of the countries situated at the periphery of the euro-zone. My expectation voiced in the morning (I had an upside bias) were negated. The first level of support (near 1,3270) gave in and the pair bounced only at my second support (near 1,3120).

My preferred oscillator (RSX on 14 periods) is saying now that on the short term we are a little oversold. Also the pair is at the first band of support. But, having in mind that usually the week before Christmas and the week after are very low on liquidity, anything could happen in the following 10 trading days. If you don’t believe that, just look at the charts from December 2008.

I’ll be back on Monday morning (during London open) with new support and resistance levels. For Sunday night I just prefer to stay on the sideline.

 

For today I have 2 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

The stock markets continue to go up and EURUSD continues to go down. Still, the pace of the decline is doesn’t look very clearly impulsive. We could still be into a very complicated correction of the last move up from between 1-3 December. But this is just subjective observation. To be objective I should look at tomorrow’s calendar and notice that again we don’t have important events neither in Europe or in USA. But in Asia we will have the monthly monetary policy statement and BOJ press conference which could move the markets significantly.

From a technical point of view, my proprietary hourly bands show me that EURUSD is entering oversold territory. But if this move down will become impulsive (because until now I don’t see it this way), than there’s clearly more room to go south. I see important support near 1,3044. Bellow that we could have another support near 1,2975 (where my proprietary daily volatility bands currently lye).

To the upside I see resistance near 1,3266 and again near 1,3360 (Friday’s high).

 

For today I have 4 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

The forex market is preparing to close the books for this year, and so am I :)

The euro continues to drift lower, and although the move from the last two weeks to me still doesn’t look impulsive enough to be considered a trend I must accept that at least for now the market chooses to maintain it’s direction to the south.

I continue to see a good support near 1,3044 and bellow that near 1,2960. To the upside my first resistance comes in only at 1,3205 and 1,3265.

On the 4 hours chart we still have an up-trend line that wasn’t broken yet, but price action is now very close to it and I don’t expect it to provide much support.

Anyway, I prefer not to trade until the first week of January due to gradual decreasing market liquidity and very very low level of predictability during year-end holiday.

 

For today I have 3 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

Merry Christmas to everybody !

 

See you again on January 3rd.

[coldrecs]

Best wishes for 2011 to everybody!

 

The forex market is slowly coming back to normal, after a period of low liquidity during Christmas and New Year’s Eve. The trend is up on the short term. The only significant resistance for the next couple of hours is near 1,3436. My feeling is that we are a little overbought here, so I expect a little of a negative reaction near that level. Afterwards the level can be surpassed. I will be back in the afternoon with an update.

 

For today I have 3 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

Until now, Wednesday was very volatile. Thanks to a good ADP number, USD was up across the board. EURUSD plunged seriously during all day and touched 1.3125 before London close breaking an exotic option barrier rumored to be in placed at that level. Commodities managed an U turn after London close and the stock markets are mainly up for the day.

Obviously my 1,.36 level was a tougher resistance than I have imagined it to be. Not only in had paused the up-trend but it completely reversed it.

Also obviously we have now a support in the area of 1.3125 - 1.3114. Bellow that next support comes in only at 1.3076.

Resistance will probably be found near 1.3255

 

For today I have 3 charts. See them all here: http://www.ktd.ro/en/fin/fx.php

[coldrecs]

From the technical view point, the move from Friday looks like a rejection from an important resistance level. This makes me think that perhaps on early Monday we might see a continuation of the profit taking and more weakness for EURUSD.

 

Still, I see that most of the forecasters still anticipate EURUSD strength for the coming week. Also the CTFC report published late Friday shows that speculators are still very bullish on the euro.

 

Anyway, next week all eyes will be on Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress and on the NFP to be announced on Friday. While the first event could be negative for the stock market and positive for USD (if there are hints that the Congress is opposed to more easing), the second one could generate some weakness for stocks and for USD also (if the unemployment rate will not continue to diminish as it did during the last couple of months).

 

From the technical point of view I have in mind the following levels of resistance and support for the Monday session:

 

1.4022 monthly R1

1.3934 my own calculated volatility band

1.3861 the high from Febr. 2nd

1.3522 the low from Febr. 22nd

1.3447 monthly pivot point

1.3422 the low from Febr. 14th