IBFX Transparency: A sneak peek into a pro's trades with Raghee Horner

[IBFX]

Over the next few posts I will outline my personal trading strategies here at the forum. The idea behind this is complete transparency in my analysis and personal trading. I share my trading ideas, set ups, as well as experience of 20 years as a futures, forex, and stock trader at Interbank FX, my personal blog, and a number of trading sites.

 

I will be sharing real trades and orders here at the forum and hope you will join me for the journey as I outline my trades and entries as well as trade management.

 

You can also join me each morning at my daily ForexAM program at StockTwits.tv as well as my blog the "Daily Trading Edge" at InterbankFX.com

 

The first post will be a two part series on how I enter trending markets.

 

Raghee Horner

IBFX Chief Currency Analyst

 

Background: Raghee is an experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets. She is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. As an international author, Raghee has taught currencies, futures and equities trading for over a decade. Her bestselling "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit" is gaining critical acclaim as it introduces readers to the forex market and her "Three Classic Tools to a Three Step Analysis". With an emphasis on charting and price action, Raghee continues to teach the tools and strategies that encourage self-directed traders to pursue the study of technical analysis and market psychology. Allowing experience of actual trades to inspire her strategies, Raghee has maximized the tools of eSignal to develop automated charting tools for active traders and investors. .

 

Hobbies and Interests: The markets, trading (and charting), writing, photography, scuba diving, kickboxing, and jiu jitsu

[Fortuna1713006009]

As far as I know your method is similar to MAX TIGER system. Anyway you are welcome to this great forum to make your contibution to trading wisdom.

[meek13]

Looking forward to your posts and welcome to this awesome forum... though will hold my reservations and see how this pans out ;)

[IBFX]

Daily trading Edge: “Election Day” Market Trend Analysis

 

In my opinion, the important “Forex Market Pulse” charts of the U.S. Dollar Index and crude oil are testing key intraday levels. The U.S. Dollar has traded lower to the 77.00 level and pierced the support at the major psychological level, but is still trading above 76.87 and 76.90. The overall downtrend seen on the daily time frame is still intact as Election Day takes the dollar below the Monday low at 76.96. The expectation early in the day could be for increased risk appetite as I believe the Dow Jones is strong and likely to test 11,200 today. In my experience, this means more dollar downside and a rally in commodities. The crude oil market is pressing up against 84.00 but has yet to attract buying momentum above this key level. The 240-minute chart shows distribution and increases the likelihood that sellers will fade the ceiling along 84.00 to 84.42. However, this crude weakness will need the dollar to stabilize around 77.00.

 

The intraday strength in crude oil can help the USD/CAD continue the downtrend seen on the 15, 30, 60, and 240-minute charts. In my opinion, the daily is still in a wide range that could be considered distribution. Because of this, unless the daily reaches the extremes of the range, I will avoid that time frame. However, I am looking to short into bounces to the “four to six o’clock” 34EMA Wave on intraday time frames to set up swing shorts.

 

The not-so-surprising RBA rate hike has strengthened an already strong Aussie dollar and the daily chart uptrend surged higher off the correction to the 34EMA Wave from October 27 and 28. With the AUD/USD now testing parity, I believe there is an increased chance of sellers trying to use the 1.000 level a ceiling from which to short the pair which - by the way – occurred recently when the pair reached 1.003 on October 15. I believe pressure will build and process will correct lower but for the uptrend on the 30 and 60-minute chart as well as the daily to remain intact.

 

The EUR/USD, fresh off its successful bounce off the 23.6% Fibonacci Level on October 27 and 28 is now moving higher on dollar weakness. In my opinion, this continuation higher may be finding some bullish momentum above 1.4000 but there is resistance waiting at 1.4080. Remember that while the dollar may be in a downtrend, it is beginning to congest which means limited upside for the EUR/USD unless the U.S. Dollar can make new lows or at least test the lows of the range between 76.33 and the “flash crash” low at 75.85. Intraday watch for corrections lower on the 15 and 30-minute charts since Election Day could bring mid-day volatility to the dollar as polling results begin to roll in. A move lower to 1.3995 to 1.3972 could be bought into but confirm that the uptrends on these time frames are still at “twelve to two o’clock”.

 

The GBP/USD is a pair that I will trade but only when I can see that the price movement ranges are working with the PowerStats statistics for expected pip ranges hour to hour. This allows me to manage my risk better in a pair that can move unpredictably. There’s a reason I call the pound sterling a “drama queen”. In my experience, PowerStats lets me manage the “drama” or volatility with more confidence and expectations of what I could see in terms of price movement. The 240-minute time frame is currently in an uptrend and that means that I will look to buy into corrections lower towards support waiting between 1.6005 (aggressive) and 1.5978 (conservative). The major psychological level as well as 34 period EMA on the high will offer a “sing buy zone” in which I can position myself for an attempt to capitalize on a resumption of the established uptrend on that chart.

 

 

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

 

 

*Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policy on trading at www.ibfx.com.

[IBFX]

Daily Trading Edge: Fibonacci Analysis on the USD/JPY

 

The daily USD/JPY has corrected higher as prices rally on yen weakness. The U.S. Dollar remains flat but trading at the lows of Tuesday’s session. I believe this will likely be the case until the 2:15pm EST FOMC Statement. In my opinion, the yen weakness has quickly rallied the USD/JPY to a 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at 81.57. Because this correction in occurring within an overall downtrend - which is confirmed by the 34EMA Wave moving lower at between “four and six o’clock” and the red GRaB candles - the move higher sets up a swing short. The resistance between the Fibonacci Level and the 34EMA Wave however, set ups a swing short zone. Let’s examine that area further and discuss entry strategies…

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-3-2010+DTE+1.jpg

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/03/Daily-Trading-Edge-Fibonacci-Analysis-on-the-USDJPY.aspx

 

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

 

 

*Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policy on trading at www.ibfx.com.

[IBFX]

Daily Trading Edge: Market Trend Analysis on the EUR/USD Intraday Swing Buy Zone

 

With the daily chart of the EUR/USD in an uptrend, my preference - even intraday - is to position myself at levels of support with the expectation of resumed bullishness after corrections. The levels of support I will position myself at will vary depending upon the time frame since a correction on (for example) the 15-minute time frame is going to generally be smaller than that on a 30, 60, or 240-minute chart.

 

In my opinion, the intraday time frames are correcting lower after selling pressure has halted the upward surge from the falling U.S. Dollar which is currently below 76.00. The 1.4200 major psychological level on the 30-minute time frame represents both support at the whole, round number as well as the 34 period EMA high which is the top line of my 34EMA Wave.

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-4-2010+DTE+1.jpg

 

If prices can trade lower to the 34EMA Wave, I will look for a swing buy with the expectation that the major psychological level represents both a support levels and a level at which buying momentum will resume. However, what happens if selling pressure is able to take over - which is not out of the question if prices can pierce 1.4195 to 1.4190? I will still look for support to position a swing buy at.

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/04/Daily-Trading-Edge-Market-Trend-Analysis-on-the-EURUSD-Intraday-Swing-Buy-Zone.aspx

 

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

 

 

*Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Read the full risk disclaimer and privacy policy on trading at www.ibfx.com.

[IBFX]

Market Trend Analysis: The Cable Retreats from 1.6300

 

As you can see, the GBP/USD rallied to the 1.6299 and fell just a pip shy of reaching the 1.6300 major psychological level. The area five pips below and above will present GBP/USD bulls with a resistance area that will likely be waiting with selling pressure. Therefore, in my opinion, the 1.6295 to 1.6305 area is the near-term ceiling. If prices continue to lower towards 1.6130, I will look for support at the 34EMA Wave and a swing buy opportunity between 1.6130 and 1.6295. I believe this 35 pips area is a swing buy zone.

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-5-2010+2-24-05+PM.jpg

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/05/Market-Trend-Analysis-The-Cable-Retreats-from-16300.aspx

 

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

Edited November 5, 2010 by IBFX
image added

[IBFX]

Managing the Time Frames: Daily EUR/USD Correction Sets Up Swing Entry

 

In my opinion, the daily chart of the EUR/USD has corrected lower into the support of the 34EMA Wave. This is significant because the daily time frame is currently in a mark up phase otherwise known as an uptrend. Because of the bullish trend, I believe the correction is an opportunity to set up a swing by entry as prices approach 1.3900.

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-8-2010+DTE+1.jpg

 

However, I still believe it would be wise to measure and watch the pullback on shorter term time frames like the 15 and 30-minute charts.

 

In my opinion, until the 15 and 30-minute charts flatten out their current market down phase, there will be no rebound on the daily chart. Notice that both the intraday time frames (above) were moving lower at a “four to six o’clock” angle. While the 15-minute time frame is now in more of a sideways distribution market phase, which is confirmed by the “two to four o’clock” angle of the Wave and the mix of red, green, and blue candles the IBFX-GRaB indicator, the 30-minute is still strongly bearish at only slightly neutral. Notice that on the 30-minute they predominance of red GRaB candles with only a handful of blue GRaB candles confirm this the strength and resumption of the downtrend after the move higher into the 34EMA Wave. These are nuances that are effectively seen when using GRaB candles.

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-8-2010+DTE+2.jpg

 

http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/image.axd?picture=2010%2F11%2F11-8-2010+DTE+3.jpg

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/08/Managing-the-Time-Frames-Daily-EURUSD-Correction-Sets-Up-Swing-Entry.aspx

 

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

Edited November 9, 2010 by IBFX
images

[IBFX]

Raghee’s Forex Market Pulse: U.S. Dollar Daily Range Brings the Volatility

 

In my opinion, the U.S. Dollar continues to bounce within an overall range between 78.61 and 75.23 with what I see as a definite bearish bias coming from the mark down phase which has yet to transition or be broken. The daily chart’s direction is still clearly down despite recent bounces to the upside which continue to find selling pressure between the 20 period simple moving average and the 34 period exponential moving average on the low.

 

To me, this is the zone that sellers are overpowering bullish momentum at and within the context of the current downtrend, this is also an area where the dollar would be expected to move back lower from. The challenge with the bearish outlook however, comes from the fact that the daily time frame is behaving like a distribution range - despite lower lows.

 

I believe distribution presents a problem for both clarity of direction and market organization. A full transition into distribution could mean that momentum has become unorganized and the bearish market sentiment has faded, but I do not automatically assume this means that the bulls have won the battle. To me, the prevailing trend and the recent market memory is bearish. Strength would be perceived as prices maintaining support above 78.50.

 

Distribution is characterized by the directionless volatility seen over the past three weeks as the dollar congests near the lows. I believe this unorganized momentum is the first sign of what may be a range that will continue to test the resolve of longer term trend traders in this environment - of which I am one.

 

Today’s dollar price action has attracted buyers above the 77.00 level which has in turn put pressure on the EUR/USD which had been bouncing off the support of the 34EMA Wave on the daily time frame.

 

I believe the dollar’s rally is also putting pressure on the AUD/USD as crude oil is testing 87.00 support on a slight - but far from significant - pullback. The dollar could make an intraday double top along 77.41 to 77.50 which is just 10 pips from the lowest like of the 34EMA Wave at 77.61. This means there is still a significant layer of resistance waiting for dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the dollar’s run could be losing steam against the euro as the 15, 30, and 60-minute time frames are transitioning into sideways ranges. The 240-minute EUR/USD however is still in a sharp downtrend which is seen with the red GRaB candles and the “four to six o’clock” 34EMA Wave angle.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/09/Ragheee28099s-Forex-Market-Pulse-US-Dollar-Daily-Range-Brings-the-Volatility.aspx

 

Be sure to download my GRaB Candle plug-in for your IBFX Trader 4 platform. It’s now available at the IBFX.com website at https://www.ibfx.com/Tools/GRaB.

[IBFX]

Traders support Dow 11,000 but risk appetite is not back.

 

The Dow is holding steady today at the 178 point sell-off from Wednesday and this shows me that there is buying support at the 11,000 psychological level and that translates into selling pressure between today’s current high in the U.S. Dollar at 79.49 and yesterday’s high at 79.58. Overall, I see it as a flat day that neither the risk appetite nor risk aversion is dominating.

 

I’ve wanted to transition to short-term time frames as I typically do this time of year mainly for more nimble and short-term positions as well as to compensate for the possible lack of organized sentiment and therefore scattered follow-through that tends to dominate holiday-effected trading. But the five and 15-minute time frames simply have not shown me the market trend clarity I am looking for. I measure clarity using the 34EMA Wave and my GRaB candles and look for how price action measure up against three criteria:

 

Smoothness: Are the three lines of the 34EMA Wave smooth or are they “lumpy”. Smoothness reflects organized price movement while lumpy moving averages indicate noise and a lack of organized sentiment.

 

Established: If there is a clear “clock angle” reading, how long has it been in place? Is the clock angle a fresh transition? Is the market in the midst of changing the previous market phase? I prefer an established market trend which means a clear and established clock angle reading.

 

Respect: If the 34EMA Wave is moving in either a twelve to two o’clock or four to six o’clock angle, are prices respecting the support of the Wave if in an uptrend or the resistance of the Wave in a downtrend? If the Wave is not offering dynamic support/resistance in a trend, then I would steer clear of that time frame.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/17/Traders-support-Dow-11000-but-risk-appetite-is-not-back.aspx

[IBFX]

It’s Thanksgiving week - a holiday shortened week that is mainly going to effect the turnover in the U.S. but considering that the hours between 8:00am and Noon EST are typically the most volatile for dollar-correlated pairs, this is significant. For this reason and for the reason that we are entering the six strangest weeks of the year (generally speaking) I like to focus on shorter, intraday time frames. Let’s also consider some non-cyclical reasons for this shift. Most of the daily charts in that trade against the dollar are in some sort of sideways range, mainly the somewhat unpredictable congestion that is distribution. That means there is no dominant market psychology on the daily time frame and since the daily is the most psychologically relevant time frame and dictates what the overall impression of the market is, there is essentially no opinion and this is reflected in the previous trends flattening out.

 

When this occurs, I will adjust and protect myself from the back and forth volatility of distribution by waiting for opportunities on the five, 15, and 30, and 60-minute time frames, with particular emphasis on the five and 15.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/11/22/Some-near-term-trend-corrections-I-am-watching.aspx

Edited November 22, 2010 by IBFX
link update

[IBFX]

Long title, yes, but that's the focus of my analysis and trading today: View my daily morning Forex analysis show at http://www.stocktwits.tv/forex-am-with-raghee-horner-120110/

 

In my opinion, the dollar’s sell-off today is the culmination of the late-July downtrend line on the daily acting as resistance, the selling pressure around 81.50, which was also the area at which the dollar exhausted Tuesday. I believe the driving force behind the sell-off however is likely two fold. The Dow Jones reached, tested, and bounced from the lows of the range on the daily chart. The sideways movement on the daily has kept the Dow in a narrow channel since November 16, and despite the fact that today’s rally is spanning the entire range and currently reaching the channel highs along 11200, the rally is just movement within an already well-travelled consolidation.

 

This risk appetite is pressuring the dollar at a time where selling pressure would have been expected to build. Directional movement is not necessarily the challenge in chart interpretation but the scope and speed of the moves that can be surprising. I will watch to see whether the Dow can break 11200 and try to establish buying support above this channel ceiling. If not, I believe there is a chance that selling pressure will once again overwhelm the bulls and the Dow will fall back intoits range. If this occurs, the dollar is likely to resume the march higher and test 81.50 once more.

 

The second scenario is the one that is the foundation of my trades: The likelihood that the Dow will remain in a sideways range and the dollar will resume its uptrend on the daily chart. Today’s correction in the U.S. Dollar Index is a healthy once in my opinion because since the November 22 low, the rally has yet to correct in any significant way.

 

In my opinion, the effect on the pairs will then be a strong correction throughout Wednesday and this will set up longer-term swing set ups on charts like the 240-minute EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD. GBP/USD, NZD, USD, and EUR/JPY. The AUD/USD is the only pair of the six I just listed that does not have a clear up or downtrend on the daily chart - although the market sentiment and momentum are bearish. My focus on the 240-minute charts come from their clear market trends and the fact that they are following the daily’s market trend unlike the intraday 15, 30, and 60-minute charts which are moving opposite the daily’s direction. These shorter-term intraday moves are the corrections we are seeing today, and if I want to take advantage of these moves I want to keep in mind that there are counter the daily.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/12/01/The-Dows-Rally-and-the-Dollars-Weakness-and-What-the-Yen-Confirms-About-the-Move.aspx

[IBFX]

The U.S. Dollar is once again stabilizing within the 34EMA Wave on the daily chart. This price action thus far has established what could be an inside day as the range of Monday’s trading session (from 80.00 psychological level resistance to 79.17, which was the middle line of the Wave) has not been broken. The Dow Jones in the meanwhile is benefiting from some risk appetite despite the ceiling overhead along 11400 to 11431 in the Dow Jones futures and 11451 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Unless this level can be broken to the upside, selling pressure will once more test the bulls and possibly lead to another test of support at 11300.

 

In support of the risk appetite in equities, the yen is being sold against both the dollar and the euro as both the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are stronger today. This is confirmation of the buying momentum above 11400 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The strong Dow however has not helped the crude oil market which is lower on the dollar’s support. This has in turn sent the USD/CAD higher and AUD/USD lower from key levels. Both pairs are tantalizingly close to parity, the USD/CAD more so. (You can watch the video analysis I had made before the equities open at StockTwits.tv under the ForexAM link.)

 

With the dollar’s stabilization also comes the 34EMA resistance on the daily EUR/USD which is once again moving lower from the 34 period EMA low. This resistance is further strengthened by the 20 period SMA which acted as resistance Monday when the EUR/USD topped out at 1.3440. The EUR/USD daily candle is also forming what could be an inside day if prices remain within the prior session’s range between 1.3440 and 1.3246.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/12/07/Stabilized-US-Dollar-Set-Ups-and-Analysis.aspx

[IBFX]

How does the daily time frame factor into intraday entries?

 

A little background: The daily time frame was where I began my trading career back when I was predominantly a futures and stock trader. This was back in the early and mid-90’s when I know little to nothing about what the foreign exchange was. I have traded currencies but I was not trading spot until 1999-2000. It was my opinion then as it is now, that the spot offered me more liquidity throughout the day and therefore better risk management. That’s why I’m still trading it today alongside my “forex market pulse” futures contracts. Much of what I share here is a direct result of my nearly 20-years of futures analysis and trading as I truly feel that understanding how forex and futures work together will offer an distinct edge in your forex entries. Another advantage, I believe, is understanding the price movement of the most psychologically significant time frame, the daily or “end of day” chart.

 

 

When I first began trading, all I had access to were daily chart. My charts were mailed to me once a week, arriving on Monday, and I would update these by hand until the next set of charts arrived in my mailbox the following Monday. This is before the internet…and before I began trading spot forex.

 

The daily charts were a slower paced trading and analysis. My indicators were simple to calculate as they had to be because I didn’t want to be burdened with time-consuming, manual calculations. PC-based, real-time charting platforms really didn’t exist unless you subscribed to a satellite-feed or direct-feed like Bloomberg. They were very expensive and frankly I didn’t have the skill set early on deal with a live, intraday price feed. I was updating charts by hand for the first three to four years of my trading - this was while I was in high school and college. Using exclusively daily charts allowed me to take my time with my analysis and gave me a tremendous “hands-on” feel for price action without the inclusion of indicators. I was looking for the tried-and-true basics: trendlines, support, resistance, and chart patterns and eventually Fibonacci Retracements. These habits haven’t left me nor has my dependence of the psychology of the daily chart.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/12/09/How-does-the-daily-time-frame-factor-into-intraday-entries.aspx

[IBFX]

Taking Advanatge of the Dollar's Intraday Correction

 

The U.S. Dollar’s weakness today is setting up plenty of short-term time frame trend-following opportunities on the five and 15-minute time frames. In my opinion, the sharp move lower is apparent on the daily chart as a correction of the daily’s weak and new uptrend. I also see this correction coming as the 80.80 level proved to be too much for dollar bulls.

 

I believe the challenge with today’s trading will be not to have too high an expectation for longer-term follow-through lower as long as the daily is still maintaining an uptrend. However, I think the near-term weakness is an excellent opportunity for movement as the dollar has broken the 80.00 major psychological level.

In my opinion, the “directional bias” of the dollar daily should emphasize that the intraday correction lower should be taken with short-term time frames with the possibility that support on the daily could build between 79.90 and 79.70.

 

The dollar’s price action has set up numerous “Between the Greens” opportunities with the five-minute chart mark up and mark down cycles.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/12/13/Taking-Advanatge-of-the-Dollars-Intraday-Correction.aspx

[IBFX]

The U.S. Dollar continues to trade in a neutral environment after yesterday’s pullback to 79.42 and today’s (pre-FOMC) low at 79.14. The current December low is 76.06 so the question is whether or not the FOMC release at 2:15pm EST will pressure the 79.00 major psychological level. This price action is exactly why my preference for yesterday's set ups (as well as DTE update) was for the very short term. Remember the pullback in the U.S. Dollar and subsequently the movement intraday was counter the daily trend or "directional bias".

 

The intraday trend is still down on the 60-minute chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, but the 15 and 30-minute charts have transitioned to a more sideways market trend. As I see it, this has continued with very little volatility after the FOMC announcement. With the December dollar lows intact, the overall uptrend on the daily is holding. To me, this means more selling pressure for the EUR/USD which was rejected from 1.3500 after a 1.3498 high. I believe this near-term, major psychological level ceiling gives the bears a level to expect exhaustion from and could increase the likelihood of future selling from this level.

 

 

Read more at http://www.ibfx.com/Corporate/post/2010/12/14/FOMC-leaves-longer-term-trends-intact.aspx