Weekly fundamental Forex review. Illustrated by charts

[FreshForex team]

A serious advantage of bulls appears

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: upper Bollinger's band moved above to 1.3753. Taking into account pressure from ADX, we can assume that upper trend is shaped very well and has two possible paths: either a direct way to the subsequent level (1.4285), or rollback from Bollinger's average band (1.31), from where a strong impetus to 1.4285 will take place. Failure of this scenario is only possible under 28th figure (blue arrow) and there is almost no technical sense to consider this option within the frame of weekly forecast.

[FreshForex team]

EUR/USD - Weekly chart:

the scenario is very close to above-mentioned, but support is more localised (1.3264 - Bollinger's average). ADX is in a very active bullish phase, that is why we may not find the pair below 1.3264 Euro.

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[FreshForex team]

Eurotrend is against Australian retracement

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: monthly bar is not closed yet and everything may happen. But all leads to breaking of the upper Bollinger envelope as ADX is growing. It is ten to one that the next middle-term objective of bulls will be 1.4260.

Upon that, one more preliminary rollback to average's Bollinger band zone is probable (1.3057). If it happens, it can be a promising setup for entrance to purchases before 1.4260, which consists more than 1200 pips. It is obvious, that one scenario is unlikely to be placed into one bar (that is to say, traders will have to be patient), however, strategy can be already tried on.

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Also, there is a threat of one more abrupt upwards passover, to 1.4934-1.50. We will give our estimations of it in the next review.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Bullish structure of markets remained

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: bulls were not able to break upper Bollinger band, though I am far from thoughts about southern direction. The reason is a fairly high Close and that Bollinger bands are still ascending (watch upper band). In case Northern movement gets confirmed, we cannot see Euro below a medium band (1.3081).

If breakthrough is lower, the pair will move to the bottom band (1.2404). We need to recognize one more supportive zone is here though - 1.2749 — protecting up-structure of trend and able to send Euro upwards in the same way. Medium target of buyers is still 1.4260.

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Edited November 5, 2013 by Volkov Yuriy

[Volkov Yuriy]

Setup for trend does not seem complete

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: rollback in the direction of Bollinger medium band continues (1.3081), from where start to upwards movement for the target 1.4260 is supposed to be. Only upon breaking of 1.2749, we can consider any middle-term bearish scenario.

Weekly chart: we witness support from the medium band (1.3328), whereas rollback swing has been fully formed. That can allow bulls to start directly from current levels. Bollinger envelopes boost upward movement, but probable deepening to 1.3081 still should be considered. In case of downward movement one can speak for a local O&U with the outlook described by the red arrow.

Conclusion: main option is touching of zone 1.3081 and start for upper targets: 1.3328, 1.3612. An alternative option is growth of Euro without continuation of down trend, directly from zone 1.3328. There is a point for buyers to keep Stops below 1.3081, cause under breaking of this point, a strong impetus for reversal will appear.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

EUR and GBP need drivers for growth

Review of the past week

The past week, quotes of Eur/Usd, Gpb/Usd and Yen/Usd pairs grew.

We will traditionally start from the review of Eur/Usd. Core event of the week for the united European currency was GDP report for the 3rd quarter published on Thursday, 14th of November. As we expected, the data was just little worse than forecasts, on the point of 0.1% per quarter. GDP reports for the 3rd quarter were also published for the leading economies of Euro zone: German, French and Italian. All countries showed decline against the 2nd quarter, in particular, Italian data stands out. GDP of this country gives negative data for as long as 9 months in succession! On the background of such negative data, Euro weakened down to the point of 1.3418. However, weak data on the trade balance and industry output of the US let Eur/Usd quotes grow to the 35 figure and trade week closed at the point of 1.3495.

The speech of the future FRS Chief Janet Yellen in the Senate Banking Committee also must be mentioned, where she told that now it is not the time to curtail QE3and it is required to wait until the economy steps into the phase of sustainable development. This factor added to growth of the European currency.

Over the past trading week, the British Pound was at risk, further to release of weak inflation data. Consumer Price Index dropped down to 2.2%. The last time such weak data was received in September, 2012. On this background, quotes declined to the point of 1.5853. However, the next day the pair started a confident upward movement. As we mentioned in our previous week review, British currency demonstrated its strength. On Wednesday, 13th of November, Bank of England presented its quarter report on inflation. It raised forecast on growth of the UK economy and it the possibility of the interest rate increase in the end of 2014 under reach of target level of unemployment was also stated.

Investors reacted positively and started active openings of long positions on Gpb/Usd. Trade week closed at the point of 1.6119, near to strong resistance level.

Participants of trades with Yen/Usd managed to reach the point of 100.00. Over the last two weeks, bears actively resisted, but bulls overwhelmed at last. Japanese GDP for the third quarter showed decline, but is above expectations. Japanese currency neglected this report and investors focused on Janet Yellen's speech in the Senate Banking Committee. Future FRS chief stated that it is necessary to remain current monetary policy unchanged within near months, which encouraged bulls to open long positions. Growth of Nikkei 225 stock index over the entire week also added to optimism of bulls and Yen/Usd closed the week at the point of 100.19.

Forecast for 18 – 22 NovemberEUR and GBP need drivers for growth

Review of the past week

The past week, quotes of Eur/Usd, Gpb/Usd and Yen/Usd pairs grew.

We will traditionally start from the review of Eur/Usd. Core event of the week for the united European currency was GDP report for the 3rd quarter published on Thursday, 14th of November. As we expected, the data was just little worse than forecasts, on the point of 0.1% per quarter. GDP reports for the 3rd quarter were also published for the leading economies of Euro zone: German, French and Italian. All countries showed decline against the 2nd quarter, in particular, Italian data stands out. GDP of this country gives negative data for as long as 9 months in succession! On the background of such negative data, Euro weakened down to the point of 1.3418. However, weak data on the trade balance and industry output of the US let Eur/Usd quotes grow to the 35 figure and trade week closed at the point of 1.3495.

The speech of the future FRS Chief Janet Yellen in the Senate Banking Committee also must be mentioned, where she told that now it is not the time to curtail QE3and it is required to wait until the economy steps into the phase of sustainable development. This factor added to growth of the European currency.

Over the past trading week, the British Pound was at risk, further to release of weak inflation data. Consumer Price Index dropped down to 2.2%. The last time such weak data was received in September, 2012. On this background, quotes declined to the point of 1.5853. However, the next day the pair started a confident upward movement. As we mentioned in our previous week review, British currency demonstrated its strength. On Wednesday, 13th of November, Bank of England presented its quarter report on inflation. It raised forecast on growth of the UK economy and it the possibility of the interest rate increase in the end of 2014 under reach of target level of unemployment was also stated.

Investors reacted positively and started active openings of long positions on Gpb/Usd. Trade week closed at the point of 1.6119, near to strong resistance level.

Participants of trades with Yen/Usd managed to reach the point of 100.00. Over the last two weeks, bears actively resisted, but bulls overwhelmed at last. Japanese GDP for the third quarter showed decline, but is above expectations. Japanese currency neglected this report and investors focused on Janet Yellen's speech in the Senate Banking Committee. Future FRS chief stated that it is necessary to remain current monetary policy unchanged within near months, which encouraged bulls to open long positions. Growth of Nikkei 225 stock index over the entire week also added to optimism of bulls and Yen/Usd closed the week at the point of 100.19.

Forecast for 18 – 22 November

[Volkov Yuriy]

Bulls marked their advantage

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: bulls are vehement in their task and do not let a full rollback to happen. In the terms of trend's structure, they need one more Low in the beginning of December so they can get a completed rollback (further to which they can proceed to a full attack). Current resistance is located into the upper band (1.3809), whereas support line is based on the medium one (1.3106).

After a possible rollback to the medium one, we can consider about the possibility of very profitable entrances to purchases with medium target as for 1.4260.

http://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/potencial/week_84.html'>Learn forecast

[Volkov Yuriy]

Will Pound be able for a new High?

Review of the past week

The past market week was marked by growth of three major currency pairs. Records of the last FRS meeting exerted a pressure on Eur/Usd quotes. FRS stated that on coming December meeting it can consider QE3 cutting. Rumors about a probable introduction of negative rates coming from EuCB were also like oil in the flame. These both factors supported US dollar, whereupon EUR/USD dropped down to 1.3399. Positive PMI data in industrial sector and German IFO supported demand in Eur/Usd pair, which closed trading week at the point of 1.3556. From the one hand, positive statistics from the leading economy of Euro zone is positive for the united European currency, from another hand, the only Germany is not enough to drive European economy. Apart from the records of the FRS meetings, records of the last BoE meeting were published as well. British regulating authority stated that inflation will decline in the nearest months, whereas unemployment will on the contrary drop. It was also stated that increase in interest rates may not necessarily follow right after the target level is reached. Positive data on the balance of industrial orders by Confederation of British Industry also supported cable in pairs with Euro and USD. Gbp/Usd closed trading week at the point of 1.6225 closer and closer reaching high of 2013. Meeting of the Japanese CB did not give surprised to participants of the market. GDP decline in 3rd quarter in the rate of 1,9% per annum was marked by the JCB management as a temporary delay. Also it was stated that now it is too early to discuss the policy of leaving stimulus programs. Positive mindset of investors on Japanese stock exchanges encouraged bulls to take new highs. The week was closed by USD/JPY at the point of 101.27.

Forecast for the week 25 – 29 of November

[Volkov Yuriy]

No surprises should be expected from EuCB

Review of the past week

Quotes of major currency pairs continued its emergence in the past week as well. According to results of the week, USDX index lost 0,2% and the largest loss was received by US currency against British pound.

Euro zone provided mixed statistics. Negative data on German labor market and retails were changed by moderately positive inflation and unemployment reports in Euro zone. Weak report on US consumer confidence CB showed the lowest values for the last 7 months and along with decline in durable goods orders figure supported demand in European currency. Eur/Usd closed trading week near to 36. Upon overcoming strong resistance level 1.6260, British currency accelerated its growth. Investors were encouraged by growth of consumer spending index, which is a crucial part of the economy, as well as by the comments of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told about withdrawal of support package for mortgage lending as from January, 2014. He also stated that improvements in Euro zone are required to continue growth of the UK economy and internal demand solely is not able to ensure a serious recovery, when spoke in the Parliament's hearings. Nevertheless, British pound managed to establish a fresh high of 2013 at the point of 1.6382.

Japanese news background was also mixed. Inflation remained on October level at the point of 1.1%, which is undoubtedly positive for Japan coping with inflation. However, the data on unemployment and industry output was negative. In general, Jpy/Usd shows a steadily ascending tendency and 5th trading week in succession is closed above the previous one.

http://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/fa/week_90.html'>Read the Forecast

[Volkov Yuriy]

“Europeans” can undergo downward correction

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: so, bulls have formed a pinbar, whereof they seemed to guarantee themselves mid-range outlook for growth to 1.4260. Nevertheless, our main review indicator ADX went down, which predetermines either monthly bounce down (or to 50% of pin in the area of 1.3440) or a deeper correction to the area of Bollinger medium band (1.3106). This plan is described by a red arrow.

Upon that, this ADX position can lead to even a more profitable bearish line: it is a touch of 1.3834 and an active move down, to continue accumulation of volumes in a giant triangle range.

Alternative option in this case is a dash upwards, for the 1.4285 point. This plan can only be considered in the position above 1.3834.

http://freshforex.ru/analitics/fresh-forecast/potencial/week_87.html'>Read more

[Volkov Yuriy]

Week sketches for three pairs

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: the pair is approaching upper Bollinger Band (1.3860), which will be quite able to send the pair to get corrected the area 1.3354. If bulls show strength and will break 1.3860, then the point 1.4260 will become an alternative verdict (marked by red arrow).

Weekly chart: a local support by Bollinger medium band is seen (1.3421). Thus, we either will face rollback to this line from 1.3860 and further growth, or break through 1.3860 to 1.4260 without rollback.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

USD/JPY: fresh high of 2013 is not far off

Review of the past week

The last week was the first trading week of the new month and thus had been very eventful. European currency managed to consolidate strongly against its US associate. EuCB meeting was conducted on December, 5th. As it was expected, European regulator remained discount and deposit rates without changes. Over the last days, there were rumors that negative rates would be introduced in Euro zone and the market received refutation of this information.

On this background, a confident growth of Eur/Usd quote has been witnessed, though provisional GDP for the 3rd quarter received good data. Friday's report on labor market sprang a surprise for market's participants, in particular, it was growth of Non-Farm payrolls index to the point of 203 000. Though European currency reacted this only in the form of technical correction, upon which growth of quotation continued. Also, a notable upsurge took place on leading stock exchanges of the world. To conclude, US positive data was not able to persuade investors that FRS would decide about cutting of QE3 on its nearest meeting on December, 17-18.

British currency had been descending during entire week. Positive data on construction and manufacture PMI did not encourage bulls to storm new hills. Whereas release of PMI for service sector disappointed investors having demonstrated its low for the last 5 months. Also, its rate was pressed by Eur/Gbp growth – this cross-rate consolidated a lot.

BoE meeting was held on Thursday, 5th, and it was decided to remain current monetary policy unchanged. Usd/Jpy had been experiencing correction over the most part of the week, after which it had reached a fresh 6-month's high. Positive data on the US labor market contributed to growth of the US currency. Usd/Jpy pair closed trading week on the point of 102.88. The futures on stock index Nikkei 225 also showed a confident growth further to three days of correction. Correlation between those two pairs is still very strong.

http://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/fa/week_94.html'>Forecast for the week 9 – 13 of December

[Volkov Yuriy]

Time is ripe to sell EUR/USD

Review of the past week

Since the last week was the first week of the month, it was traditionally eventful. According to its results, EUR/USD pair consolidated for 1.1% as ECB governor was positive in his comments and labor market report in the USA was weak. Mario Drahgi continues to surprise market with his optimism. On Thursday 6, while speaking in the ECB meeting, he stated that deflation does not threat Europe now and there is no sense to apply measures to cope with it now. Investors were encouraged by this statement and EUR/USD went above 36.

On the last trading day of the week, release on the US labor market was published. January growth of Non-Farm payrolls was 113 000, which is rather below the figure of consensus-forecast. For the second month in a row, US employers are at an easy pace when it comes to hiring. This is an alarm bell for the US economy and served a background for growth of the European currency. Week's trades were closed at the point of 1.3634. In the fight of bulls and bears on GBP/USD pair there is no winner. Over the past week, Markit Economics research center had been releasing PMI for manufacture and construction as well as for the service sector. Amongst all, only construction report was a good surprise for investors wherease two other were below expectations. This negative background encouraged bears who forced quotations down to 1.6251.

Bulls also paid back in their own coin and got out the most of the weak US Non-Farm payrolls report by raising quotations above 64. Nevertheless, in the end of the week GBP/USD lost its symbolical 0.1% and finished at 1.6407.

Japanese Yen followed its upsurge in January and early February by retreat. Only the first trading day of the week was marked by its consolidation against its US rival as sales on leading global stock exchanges was going on. On Wednesday 5, the report on change in salary for December was published. The figure was above consensus-forecast which supported demand in Japanese currency in the first half of a day. Salary growth will provoke increase of expenses in the future and thus enhancement of inflation. On this background, USD/JPY dropped down to 100.77, but bears were not strong enough to get more. Then bulls joined the game who were not discouraged by weak report on the US Non-Farm payrolls in January. Having added 0.3% for the weak, trades were closed at the point of 102.35.

Forecast for the week February 10 – 14

[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly review of three major pairs

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: the pair is on the way to Bollinger's upper band (1.3931) and bulls do not have any potential for a further break, because ADX did not exceed "30".

Thus, a main strategic scenario is a bounce down from 1.3931 and movement to the area of Bollinger's medium band (1.3139).

Weekly chart: a long consolidation inside of the ascending triangle is coming to an end. In all likelihood, this accumulation will be continued this week as well, because ADX did not turn its full potential on. Support is on the middle (1.3605), resistance is on the upper band (1.38).

Conclusion: a main scenario is the flat within 1.36-1.38. Another option is the break above 1.38, movement to 1.3931 and a bounce down in the direction of 1.36.

[img]http://freshforex.ru/netcat_files/Image/eurusd,%20m(6).png[/img]

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[Volkov Yuriy]

The dollar falls in the light of rising oil prices

The weather can distract players from Ukraine and China. The weather peak is expected on Tuesday, when the first of the four central banks is planning to organize the meeting - the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce changes in its monetary policy. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. Carl Weinberg, the chief international economist of High Frequency Economics in New York, suspects that all four central banks are "largely paralyzed and will not change its monetary policy."

The ECB as the Central Bank " may surprise us as the ECB is in uncharted waters now. While "no one can predict how ECB will react ", HFE expects that the bank's policy is likely to remain unchanged.

We expect a number of important news from the USA this week. The market's attention will be riveted on Monday to ISM manufacturing index for February release, the ISM index for the services sector and the February employment report publication on Friday.

The euro closed Friday at the 1.3807 that is at the upper range of the last week from the 1.3643 (Thursday) to the 1.3824 (Friday). The pair shot upwards after Friday’s preliminary data on inflation in the euro-zone, which raised questions about the prospect of the ECB monetary policy easing this week.

[Volkov Yuriy]

The market holds its positions

Euro

The Eurozone will publish the final consumer price index data for February. There are no prerequisites for the revision indicator upward, therefore, the release of data on the level of consensus- forecast is expected. Everyone expects full-scale geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine which can put pressure on a risky assets.

The support levels: 1.3910-1.3860, and the resistance levels: 1.3914-1.3980.

MACD is turned up, indicating on the current uptrend, if the indicator is developed downward, it can start a downward movement turn.

Trading Recommendations

Generally, the situation remains positive. Nevertheless, fundamentally, it is difficult to find a good reason for buying the single currency. That’s why it’s not the fact that the pair will move above 1.3937-1.3966.

The loss of the support in the 1.3845-1.3833 will lead to a fall down to 1.3740.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Will Federal Reserve cut the Q3 again?

Euro

As we remember last trading week Draghi said that if the inflation in the EU stays for a long period the European regulator may start the program of quantitative softening.

The ECB left interest rates at the lowest level of 0.25 % and it does not plan to raise it in the near future. At the same time we highlight the employment data in the U.S., which showed an increase of 192 thousand in March. Taking into the consideration this data for the previous months we conclude that the decrease in the number of unemployed rate in the beginning of this year was only temporary.

If the pair goes down its primary goal will be the mark 1.3560. The level 1.3640 breakthrough is the single condition for this step.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

The pound rached the top. What's next?

Euro

The U.S. Federal Open Market last meeting minutes report was published. The pair went up after this publication, breaking the resistance at 1.3845 and testing the level 1.3870. The recessions are limited by the support level 1.3845 now.

The support levels: 1.3820 - 1.3772, and the resistance levels: 1.3820 -1.3966.

MACD shows a “bullish” trend.

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Trading Recommendations

Despite the “bulls” persistence, the pair dynamics do not inspire confidence, and the closeness of the last few years high levels and overbought signs appearing create ideas about sales. The nearest targets are 1.3720, 1.3620, 1.3545.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly review of three pairs

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: An ill-defined reaction of April to March pin makes us doubt it has a good outlook. Besides, we see a strong trend activity of ADX, therefore, there is a great probability of attacking 1.4034 with a further movement to a middle-term space to 1.4964. Support by the middle Bollinger band (1.3249) must be pointed out. Any movement down to this point won't break ascending structure.

Weekly chart: the last week was finished by a very narrow inside bar. Support is located at 1.3715, from this point bulls can develop an attack to 1.4034. Decline below 1.3715 makes plan with movement to 1.3249 real.

Day chart: the pair had been under sales within the last 2 weeks, which is seen due to 2 bearish pins coming one after one. Bollinger enevlopes are getting narrow speaking about coming impulse movement. Support 1.3715 also seems confirmed and important from a diagnostic point of view.

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Conclusion: so, main plan is growth to 1.4034, following to a possible touch of 1.3715. Another option is the break of 1.3715 and decline to 1.3249.

[Volkov Yuriy]

The EUR/USD keeps trading in a narrow channel

http://imgdisk.ru/images/iohFY.png[/img]

Euro

The EUR/USD plans to continue a downward trend.

At this point, the trading continues between two strong levels: 1.3840 - 1.3760. The price is located almost in the middle of those levels while initially it strayed from the resistance 1.3840, above which it failed to consolidate after a short break.

The support levels are 1.3720 - 1.3740, and the resistance levels are 1.3810 -1.3830.

MACD is a zero area, which indicates the current corrective movement.

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Trading Recommendations

The EUR/USD continues the consolidation after the channel breakdown. This scenario assumes the market continuation to decrease to the level 1.3750 break.

Alternative Trading

The resistance 1.3840 break will lead up to a reversal downward trend. The potential target for the growth should be the level 1.3900.

[msmary]

i see your analysis good. can you supply again . it will helpfull for more trader

[Volkov Yuriy]

The EUR/USD may return to the growth

Euro

The euro was steady against the dollar on Friday as disappointing data on consumer sentiment in the U.S. boosted demand for the dollar, while the concern about the violence in Iraq continues to exert pressure.

The euro gained some support after the data release which showed that industrial production in the region increased by 0.8% in April, exceeding the forecasted increase 0.4%. The March figure was revised down to 0.4% with 0.3% of previously reported.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target 1.3435. After overcoming this target it will be relevant to sell to the mark 1.3367.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

We expect a long EUR/USD decrease

Euro

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar, trading around week low levels after the disappointing report on the German industrial orders, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi comments continue to exert pressure.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank forecasts that rates would remain at current or lower levels in the long term. He highlighted that "the governing council also unanimous in their commitment to the non-traditional instruments use if necessary, to fight the too long low inflation period risk."

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider the short positions with the first target - 1.3535. When the price consolidates below the first target it will go to the level of 1.3480.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

The Euro forms the new low

Euro

The Italian trade balance for April showed a decline from 3.89 billion euro to 3.51 billion vs. 4.27 billion. The business sentiment index in Germany ZEW, as we expected, came out with a significant decrease from 33.1 to 29.8 - a trend that lasted six months and worsened since the development of events in Ukraine is not on the European scenario.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 1.3490. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.3435.

[Josheb Fredy]

EUR/JPY continued to be neutral this week, but we’re certain of bullish movement next week, but it will be interesting to see how far it’s going to go. We just need to make sure we stay away from short, at the moment at least.