Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD: factors to watch (August 26-30)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/388

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR: factors to watch (August 27-30)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/390

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

Daily. The wave [2] which is shown on the previous picture is an (a)-(b)-© Zigzag. The wave (b) of this Zigzag is complete and is in the form of widening horizontal triangle. In the near term we expect a decline in the wave (с).

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. Here’s the detailed marking of the wave e of (b). We are probably witnessing a start of a new downtrend. We expect the pair to decline.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/549

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 27: Asian session

EUR/USD is quietly trading in the $1.3360/90 range, now staying flat at $1.3370. The only and main release in the EZ today will be the German Ifo business climate at 8:00 GMT (the index is expected to improve). GBP/USD moved a little higher to $1.5590 before returning to $1.5560. USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0525.

Asian stocks fell amid a freefall in the currencies of India and Indonesia, and as tensions in Syria escalated. USD/JPY had slid almost to 98.00 earlier today. Then the pair tried to recover, but got capped by 98.40. Yen strengthened as investors increased demand for it as a safe haven. USD/CHF is consolidating above the support at 0.9200. AUD/USD fell to $0.8960. Australia’s dollar declined as volatility headed for the highest close in six weeks, damping demand for the currency. NZD/USD dropped back to the levels just above $0.7800.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/393

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3260, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3450;

GBP/USD: $1.5550, $1.5590;

USD/JPY: 96.50, 97.00, 97.50, 98.00, 98.25, 98.30, 99.00, 99.45, 99.50, 100.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9250;

AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.8950, $0.9000, $0.9025, $0.9070, $0.9130.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/394

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293

USD/JPY: Long at 98.40 with a target of 100.45 and a stop at 97.80

GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5540 with a target of $1.5674 and a stop at $1.5490

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0515 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0469

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/553

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: not a day to sell

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3395/55 area. Despite weaker-than-expected US data, many traders think that the Fed will begin reducing monetary stimulus in September. The bulls feel uneasy due to the concerns about emerging markets and tensions in Syria.

Resistance is at $1.3400, $1.3427 (Aug.21 high) and $1.3452 (Aug. 20 high). Support is at $1.3347 (61.8% Fibo), $1.3328 and $1.3300.

The market players are waiting for the release of German Ifo business climate index at 08:00 GMT (forecast: 107.1; previous: 106.2).

Westpac: “A decent German IFO survey would add to the case for a EUR/USD test of $1.3500 though progress is slowed by broad USD resilience. Greece lingers on the horizon but for the most part sovereign debt is not a near term market concern. Our multi-week bias remains to sell this rally but not this week.”

Credit Agricole: Today is also not a day to sell EUR as surprise in a positive direction may come from the euro zone’s data releases. It’s not all bullish for EUR, however.Technical indicators suggest that upside EUR/USD momentum is fading while Greek jitters could return as the Troika returns on September 16. Moreover, speculative market EUR positioning has risen to its highest since early February, leaving no more scope for short covering.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/554

[⭐ kaito kid]

Excalibur hedge-fund: sell the Aussie

European institutional investors placed $200 million in the Aussie-selling strategy of the Sydney-based Excalibur Funds Management hedge fund. The fund forecasts AUD/USD to fall to $0.7500 in the long run as RBA is expected to lower benchmark rate to 2.0%.

A leading trader at Excalibur Matthew Harper expects the spread between Australian and U.S. 10-year government yields to converge by mid-2014 (now it is more than 1%). “Traditionally the Aussie has been in demand for its yield and when the carry or interest-rate differential is no longer positive, global demand for the currency falls dramatically".

What’s more, the Australian currency could test the levels below $0.6000 (2008 low) if the economy enters a recession. Harper sees as a 30% chance of that by 2015. “There are a lot of headwinds ahead for the Australian dollar,” Harper sais. “We can’t rely on China, which we have for the last four or five years. China’s growth is going to be 5 percent in a couple of years. We are in a downward spiral.”

Chart. Monthly AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/555

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: waiting for Carney

GBP/USD tested levels below $1.5500 today. Even weaker-than-expected data from the US released yesterday failed to bring sterling above Friday’s high at $1.5637. Yesterday the BoE policymaker Martin Weale said it may be “sensible” for the central bank to extend asset purchases in some circumstances. The pair’s currently trying to find support at the 200-day MA ($1.5509). Further support lies at $1.5420 and $1.5370. Resistance is at $1.5605, $1.5640 and $1.5700.

The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak tomorrow at 11:45 GMT. This will be his first public speech since taking the helm of the central bank on July 1. On Aug. 7 Carney said that the central bank plans to hold its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% until the unemployment rate falls to 7% which it doesn’t see happening until Q4, 2016. Investors bet that on Wednesday Carney will affirm his intention to hold borrowing costs at an all-time low.

UBS: «Carney will of course defend forward guidance and try to anchor market expectations, so the anticipated course would be a downside move in sterling. If anything, the communication will be much stronger.”

Barclays: “We would hedge for the risk that he uses the occasion to talk down rates more aggressively.” Further support lies at $1.5420 and $1.5370.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/556

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 28: Asian session

EUR/USD slipped to $1.3370 after having jumped to $1.3395 yesterday. Euro zone is scheduled to release GfK German consumer climate and M3 money supply data. GBP/USD is trading under pressure around $1.5520. Traders will be watching the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speech to Parliament at 11:45 GMT. The US will release pending home sales data at 14:00 GMT (forecast: 0.2%; previous: -0.4%).

USD/JPY lost yesterday about 150 pips and hit today a 2-week low at 96.80 before recovering a bit to 97.30. Yen held its biggest gains in 2 1/2 months against USD and EUR as a safe haven amid escalating tension in Syria. USD/CHF closed below 0.9200 yesterday.

MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell by 1.8%. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid by 1.6% yesterday. AUD/USD is trading on the downside for the third day. The pair has tested a 3-week low just above $0.8900 today. NZD/USD was rejected yesterday by resistance at $0.7860 and tested $0.7745 today. At the moment of writing kiwi was trading 40 pips above the latter. USD/CAD recovered from the daily low of 1.0470 to 1.0490.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/399

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3280, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3355, $1.3400;

GBP/USD: $1.5430, $1.5455, $1.5470;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.70, 97.75, 98.00, 98.80, 99.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9200;

AUD/USD: $0.8975, $0.8980, $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9100;

USD/CAD: 1.0500, 1.0590;

NZD/USD: $0.7875, $0.7880;

EUR/GBP: 0.8625.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/400

[⭐ kaito kid]

BMO: watch EUR/CHF

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets point out that EUR/CHF is close to the 200-day MA (1.2273). The specialists point out that a close below this level will probably push the pair to 1.2100/2050 if the markets remain in the state of the risk aversion. BMO warns, though, that significant equity market rallies could very easily see the pair trade back at 1.2350 and higher.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/557

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 29: Asian session

EUR/USD has returned to the yesterday’s low of $1.3305 as the attempt to recover was capped at $1.3345. Syrian conflict remains a negative factor for EUR/USD. European stock markets closed in the red territory yesterday. Today Germany is scheduled to release inflation and unemployment data – perhaps, these releases will divert the market attention from the Middle East.

GBP/USD is calmly trading in the $1.5550/15 range after the yesterday’s short-term dip to $1.5430. Pound continues to have some support on yesterday’s less dovish than expected Carney’s speech.

USD/JPY reached 97.90 today. The greenback is rising for the second day, but still hasn’t erased the loss made on Tuesday. Dollar was supported against yen by rising Asian shares, though its advance was capped due to dollar-selling by Japanese players. Japanese retail sales contracted by 0.3%, while the indicator was expected to stay unchanged. USD/CHF returned back above 0.9200.

AUD/USD tested $0.8890 yesterday, but recovered to $0.8978 today. Aussie climbed against after a report showed business investment rose. NZD/USD formed a bullish hammer on the daily chart yesterday with the lowest point at $0.7743 and rose to $0.7840 today. USD/CAD is consolidating in the $1.5495/80 area. The trading range has become narrower since yesterday. Canada will release RMPI and current account figures at 12:30 GMT.

US will release today preliminary Q2 GDP data. This is the second release. Earlier the advance figures showed that American economy added 1.7%. The experts now think that this estimate may be revised up to 2.2%, adding to the case for the Fed to slow stimulus. The US and its NATO allies began presenting their justification for military action against Syria as they advanced plans for launching strikes and prepared evidence that the Middle Eastern regime used chemical weapons on its own people.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/408

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3350, $1.3430, $1.3450;

GBP/USD: $1.5400, $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600;

USD/JPY: 96.50, 97.50, 98.00, 99.00, 99.25, 99.504

AUD/USD: $0.8860, $0.8950, $0.8980, $0.9065;

USD/CAD: 1.0420, 1.0550, 1.0560;

EUR/CHF: 1.2310;

EUR/JPY: 130.00;

AUD/NZD: 1.1500.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/412

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: buy USD/CAD

USD/CAD recovered to the 1.0500 mark, getting prepared for a breach above this level. The pair is forming a kind of a bullish flag. We recommend going long on the pair at 1.0520 with an initial target of 1.0570. Next resistance lies at 1.0600/10. Near-term support lies at 1.0470.

US will release its preliminary Q2 GDP and unemployment claims data at 12:30 GMT (forecasts – positive). In case of strong US data we expect a strong push upwards. At the same time Canada is scheduled to publish current account and raw materials price index.

Chart. USD/CAD H4

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/563

[⭐ kaito kid]

TDS: comments on Australia CapEx

Australia private capital expenditure indicator surprised investors on Thursday, raising by 4.0% in Q2, significantly surpassing the forecasted 0.5% growth and leaving behind the previous 4.1% contraction.

However, TD Securities analysts are expressing doubts on whether this reading is truly positive for the Australian economy: “CAPEX was stronger than expected in Q2, but belies an actually quite weak report. In fact, the component that feeds into Q2 GDP—plant & equipment —fell for the third consecutive quarter (-1.2%), against our expectation for a small bounce. We have downgraded our Q2 GDP forecast from +0.6% to +0.4% (due Sep 4). The upshot is that today’s report keeps hopes of more RBA easing very much alive, though we continue to expect the regulator to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.50% next week”.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/410

[orni308]

USDJPY will get very tricky to trade in the coming weeks, i would take a break from this pair........

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 2: Asian session

EUR/USD is trying to break the $1.3215/3190 range to the upside. On Friday the pair has found some support at $1.3175. Today watch the Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs (forecast – improvement). On Friday European stock markets closed the day in the red territory. GBP/USD opened the week with a bullish gap at $1.5530 and strengthened to $1.5570. Traders are looking forward to the UK manufacturing data at 8:30 GMT (the index is expected to reach its highest level since 2011).

USD/JPY rose to 98.67, resistance line descending from May high. Yen weakened as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe got backing for a sales-tax increase from panels that urged an increase in stimulus to cushion the economic blow. Nikkei stock index is up and the pair’s effectively wiping out the losses from the Syria-induced slide earlier last week. As for this country, the US decided to wait for Congressional approval before launching what might be a unilateral attack against the Syrian regime. USD/CHF opened the week with a small gap up. The pair touched 0.9335, but then eased lower, holding above the 0.9300 mark.

AUD/USD opened with a 40-pip gap up and is trading on the upside. NZD/USD also gapped up by about 30 pips. Aussie and kiwi gained after a Chinese factory gauge (manufacturing PMI) rose to a 16-month high, boosting trade prospects. USD/CAD initially rose to 1.5042 before sliding to 1.0516. Banks in the US and Canada are closed today for a holiday.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/420

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3320, $1.3400;

GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5595;

USD/JPY: 97.50 97.85 98.0098.50 98.55 99.00

AUD/USD: $0.8850, $0.8970, $0.8985, $0.9000, 0.9100;

EUR/GBP: 0.8520;

AUD/JPY: 0.8985.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/422

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD: factors to watch (September 2-6)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/423

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR: factors to watch (September 3-6)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/424

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

Daily. The wave [2] which is shown on the previous picture is taking the form of the Zigzag with the wave (b) in the form of the widening triangle. This triangle may be complete, so in the near term we’ll see a decline in the impulse wave ©.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The decline in the wave © has already started. We are witnessing the first downside impulse waves. The approximate trajectory is shown at the picture.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/570

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. On the weekly chart there’s a global Zigzag A-B-C. The pair keeps forming the wave С which aims at the level 1.1 where the pair was last seen in 1985.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. The pair may have finished the upward corrective wave [iI]. So, in the near term we expect a decline in the wave [iII].

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The pair has finished the wave 1. We have probably seen the beginning of a corrective rising wave 2. So, in the near term the pair may rise a bit in the wave 2, and then the decline might resume.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/571

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Daily. The pair is going through a rather complicated period of correction. We are witnessing the formation of the corrective wave 2 which looks like a Zigzag with the wave in the form of triangle. As the triangle may easily transform into some other corrective pattern, there may be many scenarios for US dollar.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. Next week we may see the continuation of the corrective wave (D).

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. We have shown one of the finest variants of marking. It’s necessary to keep in mind, however, that anything can happen the next week as there’s a triangle unfolding on the senior timeframe. We recommend staying out of trade on the senior timeframes until the market starts an impulse phase.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/572

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 4: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading under a slight pressure in the $1.3175/60 range after the yesterday’s quick dip to $1.3140. European stock indices closed in the negative zone yesterday. Today watch the Spanish and Italian services PMIs and euro zone retail sales data. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5570/50 range. Yesterday the cable formed a second consecutive candle with a long upper shadow. Great Britain is scheduled to release services PMI at 8:30 GMT. The figure is expected to come lower, than in August, but still to remain at a high level.

USD/JPY keeps trading on the upside. The pair’s once again testing resistance at 99.70 after it reached 99.86 yesterday, but failed to close there. Yen initially gained after an earthquake shook buildings in Tokyo. The moves in the currency were limited given the size of the quake wasn’t that big. For now Japanese stocks have switched to the positive territory. USD/CHF is approaching yesterday’s high at 0.9380. US dollar feels rather well amid signs the US economic recovery is gaining traction. The Fed releases its outlook survey known as the Beige Book today at 18:00 GMT.

AUD/USD touched $0.9105. Australian dollar climbed as the nation’s GDP grew 0.6% from the previous quarter, when it expanded a revised by 0.5%. NZD/USD keeps consolidating below $0.7840. USD/CAD dipped by 10 pips to 1.0530. The Bank of Canada will meet today at 14:00 GMT (no rate change is expected).

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/435