Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR: factors to watch (August 19-23)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/369

[⭐ kaito kid]

its better to turn bearish for the pair........

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[⭐ kaito kid]

JPY: factors to watch (August 19-23)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/370

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD: factors to watch (August 19-23)

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/371

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 20: Asian session

EUR/USD is up by about 25 pips to $1.3355. Yesterday the single currency was capped below $1.3380. Euro is well supported ahead of the release of the manufacturing and services data on Thursday that may add to evidence of the region’s strengthening recovery from a 6-quarter contraction. Today watch German PPI at 06:00 GMT. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5650 area, below yesterday’s high of $1.5673. USD/JPY is trading in the 97.40 area after testing 97.86 earlier today. USD/CHF slid to 0.9225 after it failed to rise above 0.9280 on Monday. USD/CAD rose approaching resistance at 1.0380.

AUD/USD reached $0.9233 yesterday, but then closed just above $0.9100. The pair’s currently probing this level to the downside. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting signaled further interest-rate cuts remain a possibility. NZD/USD failed to close above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The pair peaked to $0.8162, but then slid down and is now trading below $0.8000. New Zealand’s dollar slid after the central bank governor Graeme Wheeler said the currency was overvalued.

US dollar generally feels rather well as Treasury yields climbed to a 2-year high yesterday and as investors await FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow for clues on when the Fed will reduce stimulus.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/373

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400;

GBP/USD: $1.5575, $1.5635, $1.5640, $1.5650, $1.5645;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 98.00, 98.25, 98.40, 98.50, 99.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9300;

AUD/USD: $0.8900, $0.9170, $0.9180, $0.9200, $0.9250;

USD/CAD: 1.0295, 1.0350.

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/JPY: advice from Danske

EUR/JPY is moving sideways around 130.00. Yesterday the pair tested a 2-week high at 131.00, but then failed to close above the resistance line connecting July and August high.

Euro was supported by the comments from Bundesbank which suggested that the ECB’s pledge to cut interest rates could be changed, but then hit as Japanese stocks fell, boosting demand for yen as a safe haven.

Support lies at 129.80, 129.40 and 128.90. Resistance is at 130.50, 130.90, 131.11 (July 2 high) and 131.94.

Danske Bank suggests buying EUR/JPY at 129.80 for a 131.10 objective with a stop at 128.89.

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/518

[⭐ kaito kid]

Positive views on EUR

EUR/USD has once again reached $1.3400.

Credit Agricole says that there’s scope for EUR/USD to trend back to $1.3600 and above over the coming few weeks. The specialists justify their assumption by several reasons:

The ECB’s forward guidance is unlikely to cap medium- and long term rates if incoming growth data continue to improve.

The market has already priced in the scenario, according to which the Federal Reserve will start tapering QE in September, so US yields have little scope for further growth.

Watch German GDP and business activity data as well as the release of the FOMC minutes from the July meeting.

ANZ points out that there are some signs that economic growth in the euro area is starting to stabilize. “Recent gains continue to appear relatively impulsive and could suggest an early and full test of broader range resistance in the $1.3700 area,” says the bank.

Commerzbank says that the increase above June high at $1.3415 would suggest ongoing strength to 1.3500/20 where they expect euro to falter. “Only a drop through the 1.3208/1.3188 support area will alleviate upside pressure,” says the bank.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/519

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 21: Asian session

US dollar rose versus its Asia-Pacific counterparts as investors await the release today of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting (18:00 GMT) for signals on when it may curtail monetary stimulus. Also pay attention to the existing home sales release at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD is consolidating above $1.3400 after having soared to $1.3452 on Tuesday (highest since February). There are no data releases scheduled in euro zone for today. GBP/USD is trading quietly in the $1.5650/70 range. Yesterday the pair reached a 2-month high of $1.5695. Today UK is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data (8:30 GMT) and CBI industrial order expectations (10:00 GMT).

USD/JPY rose to resistance at 97.65 after hitting 96.90 yesterday. There was a jump in yen after Japan’s nuclear regulator raised the threat level for an August 19 storage tank leak at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima plant. Then, however, the pair turned up again as Nikkei 225 turned into positive in the final hours of the Asian trading session. USD/CHF closed yesterday at the minimum level since February at 0.9170 breaking below an important support line. Watch Swiss monthly Statistical Bulletin at 07:00 GMT and then focus on the FOMC minutes for further clues.

AUD/USD slid to $0.9018. NZD/USD hit $0.7907. Aussie and kiwi are declining versus the greenback for the third day in a row. Today the currencies were dented by weakness in Asian equities. USD/CAD holds around the daily highs of 1.0425.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/376

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400;

GBP/USD: $1.5575, $1.5650;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.50, 97.60, 99.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9300;

AUD/USD: $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9200;

USD/CAD: 1.0315, 1.0370, 1.0380, 1.0400;

EUR/JPY: 131.00.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3410 with a target of $1.3520 and a stop at $1.3354

USD/JPY: Sell at 97.85 with a target of 95.92 and a revised stop at 97.89

GBP/USD: Long at $1.5617 with a target of $1.5753 and a stop at $1.5607

USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9207 with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9255

AUD/USD: Look to sell

USD/CAD: Short at 1.0345 with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/521

[⭐ kaito kid]

UBS: sell AUD/USD

AUD/USD extends the downside on Wednesday, testing the levels below the yesterday’s support at $0.9030.

UBS recommends selling AUD/USD on a daily close below $0.9040, targeting $0.8550 and with stop initially placed at $0.9250. They point that the bearish pressure persists below the key resistance of $0.9210.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/522

[⭐ kaito kid]

Morgan Stanley: time to buy USD/JPY

Strategists at Morgan Stanley went long on USD/JPY yesterday, opening a position at 97.00 with a target of 106.00 and a stop at 95.75.

They believe that conditions for JPY weakness are now back in place. The BoJ has come under increasing pressure to accompany a sales tax increase with further monetary easing.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/526

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: daily update

EUR/USD reached $1.3450 yesterday, then consolidated above June high at $1.3415 and slid below this level to $1.3380. The single currency closed on Tuesday at the highest level since Feb.

Credit Agricole expects euro to test $1.3450 today. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ warn that “the greater risk tonight appears to be a conclusion that tapering might come a little later than September, which leaves the dollar vulnerable to some further near-term selling versus the majors.” Danske Bank points out that potential downside for the pair is limited as QE tapering in itself is not enough to start a bigger dollar appreciation which will require support from relative rates.

Resistance is at $1.3415, $1.3450, $1.3500 and $1.3520. Support is at $1.3380, $1.3345, $1.3310.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/525

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: daily update

GBP/USD almost reached $1.5700 yesterday ($1.5695), but then closed lower, at $1.5664. As for the economic data released in Britain today, the public net borrowing wasn’t as low as analysts hoped, but CBI industrial orders in August came significantly better than expected. Pound is approaching $1.5700 on the news. All eyes are now at US housing data at 14:00 GMT and the FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT.

Credit Agricole recommends going long on GBP. Commerzbank says that that GBP/USD is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at $1.5739, a rise above which will open the way to $1.5750 (200-week MA). In their view, the outlook for GBP will remain positive above last week’s minimum of $1.5420.

Note, however, that pound is overbought and there’s divergence on H1 and H4 MACD. In addition, GBP is trading at the upper border of a rising channel since July, so a correcting in the pair seems quite likely. Support is at $1.5630, $1.5607, $1.5575 and $1.5515 (200-day MA).

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/524

[⭐ kaito kid]

Gold: technical picture

Gold price is consolidating in the $13185/50 range this week. XAU/USD is calmly waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes. Fed tapering hints could pressure the bullion price.

As can be seen from the daily chart, XAU/USD is now trading at the lower border of the bearish 2011-2013 channel. Earlier in the summer gold broke lower, touching a three-year low at $1180, but is now showing some signs of reversal. On a monthly chart one may see that the price is supported by a strong bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

Resistance is seen at 1385, 1425 and 1485, while support lies at 1340, 1275, 1205 and 1180.

Chart. Weekly XAU/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/528

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 23: Asian session

US dollar is poised for a weekly gain against most major peers as economic data supported the case for the Fed to reduce stimulus as early as next month

Euro growth remains subdued this week after the EUR/USD pair touched $1.3450 on Tuesday. Today the pair is trading in the negative territory around $1.3330, but holds above the Thursday’s low at $1.3300: yesterday the pair formed a narrow candle with a long lower shadow, supported by weak US jobless claims. There are no important data releases in the EZ today. The ECB’s Nowotny made an important comment today, saying the good economic news removes need for rate cut.

USD/JPY rose to 99.00. EUR/JPY rose to 1-month high at 132.33. Nikkei 225 rose by almost 3%. Yen weakened before the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks tomorrow at the Federal Reserve’s annual monetary conference in Jackson Hole. GBP/USD is calmly trading around the yesterday’s close level ($1.5600/5575 range) following the recent sharp drop from $1.5715. Watch the UK second estimate Q2 GDP at 8:30 GMT (forecast and prior: +0.6% q/q). USD/CHF is up at 0.9250 after yesterday’s spike to 0.9290.

Asian markets traded mostly in the green, following the recovery seen in global equities on Thursday and on a new round of rumors that the People’s Bank of China may cut the reserve ratio requirements (RRR) towards the end of the year. AUD/USD is a bit on the upside, but below resistance at $0.9040. NZD/USD also tried to move higher, but was limited around $0.7860. USD/CAD keeps conquering new highs, currently trading at $1.0545. Canada will release inflation data at 12:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/384

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3225, $1.3315, $1.3335, $1.3400, $1.3450;

GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5570, $1.5575, $1.5600;

USD/JPY: 97.65, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9300;

AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9125;

USD/CAD: 1.0390, 1.0440, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0515;

NZD/USD: $0.8025;

EUR/JPY: 130.50, 131.00, 132.00;

EUR/AUD: 1.4550.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/385

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293

USD/JPY: Raise buy to 98.20 with a target of 99.95 and a stop at 97.50

GBP/USD: Buy lower

USD/CHF: Possibly sell

AUD/USD: Sell at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104

USD/CAD: Buy at 1.0450 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0390

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/535

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: waiting for GDP

As expected, GBP/USD found support at $1.5575. The market players are waiting for the confirmation that UK GDP gained 0.6% in Q2. The data is due at 08:30 GMT and will be accompanied by BBA mortgage approvals and business investment which are expected to improve. In the US watch new home sales release at 14:00 GMT.

Note, however, that sterling breached the wedge, so the bears may continue pulling down. Important support lies at $1.5515/00 (200-day MA, 23.6% Fibo) ahead of $1.5430/20 and $1.5370. Resistance is at $1.5640, $1.5700, $1.5750 (200-week MA).

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/536

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: daily update

EUR/USD formed a hammer yesterday closing above support at $1.3350. After the initial dip today the bulls are trying to push the pair higher. Yet, there’s a band of resistance at $1.3365/80. If euro breaks higher, it will be able to test $1.3410/27 and probably $1.3450. Further resistance is at $1.3488 and $1.3520. On the downside, support is at $1.3347, $1.3335 and the most important one, at $1.3300.

SEB Bank: “Yesterday’s attempt lower was responded to in the expected support area. Players face a recent both-sides rejection when they come in today and the outcome is obscured.”

Commerzbank: “There’s a negative divergence on the daily MACD, so a top may be formed at $1.3450. Only a drop through the next lower $1.3208/1.3188 support area will mean that a significant top has indeed been made.” The pair may challenge highs and break higher (to $1.3520 and $1.3711), but the bank doesn’t consider such scenario very likely.

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ is neutral EUR/USD and sees spot ranging in the $1.3200/1.3500 region ahead.

German economic growth in Q2 was confirmed at 0.7%. There is little left of the calendar for the pair today except US new home sales at 14:00 GMT. The reading may decline after its spectacular increase last month.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/539

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/CAD: waiting for CPI

USD/CAD is trading around the 6-week high of $1.0567 ahead of Canada inflation data. Figures are expected to show that consumer prices to have edged up marginally in July.

Loonie fell to its lowest level in six weeks as a report yesterday showed retail sales shrank more than forecast in June, adding to signs of economic slowdown in Canada.

GMP Securities (NY): The retail sales are just icing on the cake for the loonie.The retail-sales number along with the Ivey and jobs data and wholesale sales figures suggest the Canadian economy faces headwinds, not unlike other developed-market economies, so that is going to be somewhat weighing on the loonie.

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 26: Asian session

US dollar finds itself under pressure ahead of the durable goods orders data due today at 12:30 GMT (forecast: -3.0%; previous: +3.9%).

EUR/USD is quietly trading in the $1.3375/90 range as Friday’s growth attempt was capped by the $1.3400 mark. There are no releases scheduled in the euro zone for today, so watch the data in the US session. European officials keep giving contradictive comments: according to ECB’s Demetriades, a rate cut is ‘still in the cards’.

GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5560/85 range after the Friday’s volatile trade. British banks are closed for a holiday today. USD/JPY formed a spinning top at the resistance line on Friday and is trading in the 98.60 area after an initial testing of 98.80. In Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said today that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will make a decision on whether to raise the country’s sales tax by early October. USD/CHF is consolidating around 0.9220 after sliding from 0.9250 on Friday.

AUD/USD keeps pushing at resistance in the $0.9040 area. NZD/USD rose by 30 pips above $0.7800. Aussie and kiwi went up as Chinese stocks gain momentum on soothing comments from the nation’s statistics service. USD/CAD spiked to hit a 1.5-month high at 1.0568 on Friday and declined to 1.0500 today.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/386

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3315, $1.3335, $1.3350, $1.3360, $1.3420;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00;

AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.9150;

USD/CHF: 0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0570;

EUR/GBP: 0.8555.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/387

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293

USD/JPY: Long at 99.00 and a stop at 98.38

GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5540 with a target of $1.5674 and a stop at $1.5490

USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9245 with a target of 0.9130 and a stop a 0.9295

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0515 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0469

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/542