Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

Daily. Euro has almost finished forming corrective wave II.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The wave II took form of the Zigzag. In the near term we expect rising wave (5) to end. After that we may see a new downtrend in the wave III.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. On the weekly chart there’s a global Zigzag A-B-C. The pair keeps forming the wave С which aims at the level 1.1 where the pair was last seen in 1985.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

H12. The wave (I) is complete. At the moment we are witnessing the formation of the wave (II).

Chart. H12 GBP/USD

H4. The wave (II) is probably taking form of a rising Zigzag. We are now witnessing the formation of the wave of b of this Zigzag. See the approximate trajectory on the picture.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Daily. The pair keeps forming a declining corrective wave 2.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. We are witnessing the formation of the wave (С) of the Zigzag in the waveа 2. At the moment the market has formed waves [1] and (2) of ©. If the marking is correct, in the near term we’ll see a strong bearish market.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. The detailed marking on H1 shows that the wave (2) took form of the А-В-С Zigzag. When this wave was over, we saw a beginning of the powerful movement in the wave (3). The pair will probably keep declining.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair keeps forming the wave III of the downside impulse.

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. As we’ve expected, the pair has finished the wave (4) and kept declining in the wave (5).

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

H8. The wave (4) took form of a long horizontal correction. In the near term we expect a little decline in the wave (5). After that Australian dollar will start forming corrective wave [4], which may take form of a flat.

Chart. H8 AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 6: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading at $1.3160/50. On Monday the pair failed to rose above $1.3300 due to the good ISM services PMI in the US. In Europe watch for Italian industrial production and preliminary GDP, as well as German factory orders (08-10:00 GMT). GBP/USD closed at $1.5350 yesterday and is now a bit below this level. Britain will release manufacturing and industrial production figures at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY returned to 98.30 after a dip to 97.85 earlier in the session. USD/CHF recovered to 0.9280 following a dip to 0.9245.

AUD/USD edged higher to $0.8990, extending the recovery from the yesterday’s low of $0.8850. As it was widely expected, RBA has cut the overnight cash rate by 0.25 points to 2.5%. It means that the Australian borrowing costs remain the highest in the developed world along with New Zealand. There were no hints from RBA on further rate cuts. Australia trade surplus increased to 0.60B, but came below the forecast of 0.80B. NZD/USD also keeps strengthening for a second day in a row, touching $0.7860 on Tuesday. In the US session New Zealand is scheduled to release weaker employment data. USD/CAD is at 1.0360 after it declined from yesterday’s high just above 1.0400. Canada will publish trade balance at 12:30 GMT. US trade data will come out at the same time.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3050, $1.3125, $1.3150, $1.3285;

GBP/USD: $1.5300;

USD/JPY: 99.00 99.10 99.15 99.60 100.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9200;

AUD/USD: $0.8800, $0.9000, $0.9070;

USD/CAD: 1.0370;

NZD/USD: $0.7800;

AUD/CAD: 0.9400;

EUR/JPY: 129.85.

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 6: European session

Data released today in the euro area was generally encouraging:

EUR/USD spiked up to $1.3295, but then eased down to $1.3270.

UK production data was also better than expected.

GBP/USD reached $1.5392 before returning to the $1.5360 area.

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: daily update

EUR/USD is consolidating in a tight $1.3245/70 range on Tuesday (around 76.4% Fibo). As can be seen from the chart, the pair is gradually edging lower from the 2013 resistance trend line after having peaked at $1.3342 last week.

We recommend selling the pair around the current levels. Support for the pair is seen at $1.3200, $1.3180 (last week’s low) and $1.3160. Resistance lies at $1.3300/15, $1.3340 and $1.3400/15.

On the euro zone’s today’s economic agenda there are Italian Q2 GDP (recession persists) and German factory orders (improvement forecasted). US will release trade balance and job openings data later in the day.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: daily update

GBP/USD edged slightly higher to $1.5390 following the release of unexpectedly strong UK manufacturing figures. Manufacturing production rose by 1.9% m/m in April (forecast: 0.9%, previous: -0.7%). This is the highest reading since last summer.

However, the British currency still has a lot of resistance ahead: $1.5390 (61.8% Fibo), $1.5400/15 and $1.5435 (July highs). There is a high chance that these levels will cap the upside. A break above here could open the way to $1.5525 and $1.5600.

On the today’s agenda there is a UK NIESR GDP estimate (forecast: 0.6%). US will release trade balance and job openings data later in the day.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: why tax matters?

USD/JPY has found support at 97.83 today (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and close support line from November) and returned above the opening level to the levels around 98.50.

In our view, the chance for rebound stands as long as the pair’s staying above 97.50 (50% retracement of the advance from June to July. Initial target on the upside is at 99.70. There’s resistance at 98.60/70 (100-day MA, 200-hour MA, 38.2% Fibo, top of the daily Cloud) and 99.25. On the downside, below 97.65 the greenback will be vulnerable for a decline to 96.70 and probably lower, to 96.00 and 95.60. All in all, the market lacks certainty, so we may see more of the sideways trading between the mentioned key levels.

Analysts at RBS and Nomura don’t expect the Bank of Japan to ease policy on Friday. Yet, they think that it’s time to buy USD/JPY. The specialists point out that the most important question of debate in Japan is now the consumption tax hike. As the BOJ’s Governor Kuroda supports such step, it means that the central bank is ready to ease its monetary policy in future.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

[⭐ kaito kid]

BofA: bearish on EUR/USD

According to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the US dollar is now forming a base, returning to a larger bullish trend.

In their view, a daily close of EUR/USD below $1.3166 would confirm the top and a turn lower with targets at $1.2457 and below. A break above the trend line resistance at $1.3322 would return the pair into the consolidation phase. The bearish view would be invalidated only on a close above $1.3418.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 9: Asian session

US dollar suffered from continuing weakness this week. The greenback was hurt as US payrolls data which fell short of market expectations creating uncertainty over how soon the Fed will start reducing its stimulus.

EUR/USD reached yesterday a 7-week high of $1.3400 and is trading now in the $1.3380 area. Euro is in demand before an Aug 14 report analysts said will show the currency region’s GDP returned to growth in Q2. Today there are some releases of medium importance like French industrial production and budget balance at 06:45 GMT. GBP/USD rose yesterday to $1.5574. Today sterling is little changed around $1.5540. Britain will release its trade balance at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY slipped to 96.30 following a growth attempt capped at 97.00. USD/CHF is trading sideways around 0.9200.

AUD/USD dropped to $0.9080 following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s statement on monetary policy for August, but quickly found support on lower-than-expected Chinese CPI (+2.7% y/y) and strong industrial production (+9.7% y/y), recovering to session highs around $0.9133. NZD/USD is trading sideways slightly below the $0.8000 mark. USD/CAD slid yesterday from the levels around 1.0430 to the area just above 1.0300. Now the greenback is in the 1.0325 zone. Watch for Canadian labor market data at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a gain in employment after the previous contraction.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3280, $1.3290;

GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5550;

USD/JPY: 95.25, 96.00, 96.20, 96.35, 96.50, 97.80, 97.95, 98.60;

AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9025, $0.9045, $0.9150;

USD/CAD: 1.0375, 1.0380, 1.0425, 1.0450;

AUD/JPY: 86.50;

EUR/GBP: 0.8525, 0.8620, 0.8625.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3336 with a target of $1.3456 and a stop at $1.3290

USD/JPY: Short at 98.60 with a target of 95.42 and a stop at 97.55

GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5435 with a target of $1.5680 and a stop at $1.5375

USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9245 with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9297

AUD/USD: Revised buy at $0.9020 with a target of $0.9258 and a stop at $0.8964

USD/CAD: Sell at 1.0345 with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: resistance ahead

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3370/90 range on Friday. The single currency is slightly down from the yesterday’s peak at $1.3400 (highest since mid-June, 200-week MA). Bullish momentum towards the euro persists, but there is a strong resistance ahead.

Commerzbank: EUR/USD remains bid above the $1.3312 and only a loss of last week’s low at $1.3188 will alleviate immediate upside pressure. Intraday charts are suggesting the $1.3417 high will be tested, but that it is likely to cap growth.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

[⭐ kaito kid]

Stock market: an update

Nikkei closed up by 0.07% at 13,615.19. European stocks following Asia in opening higher on a generally positive Chinese data.

Data from Bloomberg

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: bearish views (TDS, BoA)

TD Securities: “USD/JPY has fallen sharply over the past month but downside risks remain. Spec positioning remains heavily short JPY and seasonal factors may just be about to bite a little harder”.

Bank of America: “USD/JPY breached down its range. Stay near-term bearish for 95.25 (3-5m triangle/contracting range support), potentially 93.65/79. However, don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. This multi-month range ultimately resolves higher for a resumption of the long term bull trend, with year-end targets seen to the 107/108 area.”

Citigroup Securities: “A fall in risk/reversal spreads in the options market implies there is strong demand for dollar puts by short-term players. In terms of technicals, USD/JPY has not recovered even to its five-day average (97.13). A potential target in the near term would be a 76.4% of its rally from June to early July at 95.59.”

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 12: USD recovered

Monday, August 12, 2013 - 05:41

The greenback strengthened before US data due tomorrow may show retail sales rose for a fourth month in a row, adding to the case for the Fed to reduce monetary stimulus.

EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3318, then rose to $1.3343 before returning lower, to $1.3325. EUR/JPY rose from a 6-week low below 128.00 before reports due on Tuesday and Wednesday that may show industrial production and GDP in the euro area rebounded. GBP/USD also opened with a gap down at $1.5483, the tested $1.5520 before returning below $1.5500.

USD/JPY strengthened to 96.60 after a dip to 95.90. Japanese GDP disappointed: the nation's economy added only 0.6% vs. the forecast of 0.9% growth. Japan’s top companies reporting showed they doubled earnings in Q2 from a year earlier, exceeding already high forecasts and generating support for the economic recovery. Tonight Japan is scheduled to release core machinery orders data (forecast – negative) and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting minutes. USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9240.

AUD/USD opened the week at $0.9190, tried to strengthen, but was capped at $0.9225. NZD/USD opened the week with a small bearish gap. The growth attempt of the kiwi was contained by the Friday’s high of $0.8055. USD/CAD is trading below 1.0300.

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23182-august-12-usd-strengthened

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:38

Weekly. On the weekly chart there’s a global Zigzag A-B-C. The pair keeps forming the wave С which aims at the level 1.1 where the pair was last seen in 1985.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

H12. The pair keeps forming corrective wave (II).

Chart. H12 GBP/USD

H4. The wave (II) is taking form of a rising Zigzag. We are now witnessing the second leg of this Zigzag – c. In the near term we expect a small corrective wave [4], which may take form of a flat. After that the market will rise a bit in the wave [5].

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23185-gbpusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:41

Daily. The pair keeps forming a declining corrective wave 2 after a global uptrend in the wave 1.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. We are probably witnessing the formation of the (a)-(b)-© Zigzag. At the moment the pair’s forming the wave (с) of this Zigzag.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. As expected, last week the pair was declining. The greenback is likely to fall in the near term in the wave 5 of (3). After that there will be a corrective wave (4) which may take form of a flat (fourth waves are often horizontal). The approximate trajectory is shown on the picture.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23186-usdjpy-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:43

Weekly. The pair keeps forming the wave III of the downside impulse.

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. The pair has finished the wave [3], so now we are witnessing the formation of the corrective wave [4]. The fourth wave may take form of a long horizontal correction.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

H8. Usually the fourth waves of an impulse are hard for trading as they are full of deceptive strong moves and can take an unpredictable shape. As a result, we recommend standing aside until the wave [4] is complete.

Chart. H8 AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23187-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Monday, August 12, 2013 - 10:42

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

Daily. Euro has almost finished forming corrective wave II. The critical level of this marking is shown on the picture with the red line. If the price crosses this line, the marking should be changed. In this case we’ll stick to an alternative scenario, according to which EUR/USD keeps forming the wave (b).

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The wave II looks complete. We expect a decline in the wave III.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23188-eurusd-elliot-wave-analysis

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 13: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3300 area after it declined by about 20 pips yesterday. There’s plenty of important data to be released in Europe and the US today. Watch German ZEW economic sentiment (according to the forecasts, the index may rise to a 5-month high) and the euro zone’s industrial production figures at 09:00 GMT and US retail sales (!) and import prices at 12:30 GMT as well as business inventories at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD is little changed at $1.5460 after declining from $1.5480 yesterday. Britain will release inflation data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY rose to 97.55. There was a headline today that Japanese Prime Minister Abe intends to cut corporate tax rate in order to offset negatives of sales tax hike. This is a positive factor for Nikkei and USD/JPY. Tonight’s data showed Japan core machinery orders contracted less than expected (-2.7% m/m vs. -7% expected). USD/CHF strengthened to 0.9265.

Aussie and kiwi are trading under pressure for a second day in a row. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9135 after having hit the $0.9100 mark earlier in the session. Australia July NAB business confidence came at -3 (prior: 0). NZD/USD is trading in the negative zone slightly below $0.8000. New Zealand is scheduled to release retail sales data tonight (forecast – improvement). USD/CAD keeps consolidating in the 1.0300 area.

[⭐ kaito kid]

August 13: European session

Euro zone released strong statistics at 9:00 GMT. EZ ZEW economic sentiment rose to the highest level since April 2010 (44.0 vs. forecast 37.4 and prior 32.8). German sentiment index came at a highest since March 2013 (42.0 vs. forecast 40.3 and prior 36.3).

Euro zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in June (forecast: +1.1%, prior: -0.2%). Figure missed the target, but reached the highest level since January. EUR/USD is trading at session highs around $1.3320 on these data increase expectations about tomorrow's EZ GDP.

GBP/USD spiked down today to $1.5430 (see H1) and the rose to $1.5490, a level close to 55- and 100-hour MAs which are about to cross in a bearish manner. EUR/GBP is fluctuating around 0.8600.

UK CPI came in line with expectations at 2.8% in July (prior: 2.9%). The core reading came at 2.0%, missing the median at 2.2% and lower from June’s 2.3%.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3336, with a target of $1.3456 and a stop at $1.3260

USD/JPY: Sell at 97.50, with a target of 95.92 and a stop at 98.05

GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5435, with a target of $1.5616 and a stop at $1.5375

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9270, with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9315

AUD/USD: Long at $0.9140, with a target of $0.9325 and a stop at $0.9080

USD/CAD: Short at 1.0345, with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405