Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3300, $1.3315, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3440, $1.3460, $1.3475, $1.3500 (large), $1.3525, $1.3565, $1.3600 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.5950, $1.5960, $1.6000, $1.6035, $1.6125, $1.6175;

USD/JPY: 98.50 (large), 98.55, 98.70 (large), 99.00 (large), 99.20, 99.40, 99.55, 99.75, (large), 100.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9230, 0.9250;

AUD/USD: $0.9400, $0.9420, $0.9450, $0.9460, $0.9475, $0.9480, $0.9500, $0.9525, $0.9550;

USD/CAD: 1.0385, 1.0390, 1.0395, 1.0500;

EUR/GBP: 0.8330, 0.8350, 0.8435;

EUR/CHF: 1.2300, 1.2325;

EUR/JPY: 129.00, 131.50, 132.00, 1.3350.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/680

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 8)

Daily. EUR/USD kept declining during the recent days. On the daily timeframe the pair reached the Ichimoku Cloud and even made an attempt to move to the bearish zone, falling to 1.3300. In the end, however, the prices have remained within the Cloud. Therefore, short-term situation remains strongly negative as the Tenkan and Kijun formed the dead cross ©. EUR/USD may be kept from further declines by the bottom of the Cloud: Senkou Span A acts as support at $1.3370. The odds of EUR recovering to Tenkan and Kijun are high.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. There’s a bearish trend on H4. Here both the Ichimoku Cloud and the short lines look fairly pessimistic. Note, however, that over the last day, all lines of the indicator went sideways indicating a high probability of short-term sideways trend. The bulls can even make short-term attempts to recover the lost ground. To do this they will have to overcome the resistance of Tenkan and Kijun © at $1.3420. The first attempt was unsuccessful. Consequently, in the short term, the pair may test the local lows.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Tatyana Norkina for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/804

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 8)

Daily. During the past week GBP/USD took advantage of the support of the Ichimoku Cloud top on the daily chart. The bounce off the Senkou Span A served as a signal to buy the currency pair which led to the expected growth to the Tenkan and Kijun lines at $1.6100. However, it should be noted that the lines themselves had time to form a dead cross ©, which in the next few days will contain further recovery of the pair. If the price settles above Tenkan and Kijun, we can expect the bullish scenario in the long term as the Ichimoku cloud is still bullish.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. On H4 the situation in a short time can also become bullish, as last week the pair has significantly recovered. The prices broke the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud and now intend to gain a foothold in the positive zone. Tenkan and Kijun provided support for the prices during the recent corrective decline, so these lines are actually making traders more optimistic. If the prices fix above the upper boundary of the Cloud, this will open the way to $1.6190.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Tatyana Norkina for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/806

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 8)

Daily. USD/CHF has retained the positive mood. During the past week the pair rebounded to the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily timeframe, but resistance if Senkou Span A did little to prevent bullish interest. On Thursday US dollar jumped to the level of 0.9250, which is quite far from the main resistance level formed by the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. It’s quite obvious that the bulls won’t be satisfied and will continue to advance. Note that Tenkan and Kijun formed a golden cross ©, which is also an indicator of positive sentiment in the market.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. On H4 the situation is in favor of the bulls. Over the past week the pair finally broke the range of strong resistance levels, the upper limit of which was at 0.9150. Only on Thursday the bulls finally managed to break above this level. The Ichimoku Cloud switched to the positive state which implies further development of the bullish trend. To continue the recovery, the currency pair has to consolidate above Tenkan and Kijun (0.9175). Growth target lies at 0.9300.

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Tatyana Norkina for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/807

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 8)

Daily. USD/JPY can’t stop swinging. During the whole past week the bulls tried to break into positive territory. Never the less, resistance provided by the upper boundary is still relevant. Moreover, pay particular attention to the nature of the Cloud which still indicates that long-term longs are premature. Given the nature of trading in recent days, when the pair once again fallen under the Cloud, we assume that the lateral trend will continue further. So at this point it makes sense to refrain from making trading decisions.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. Positive Ichimoku indicator on H4 can change to the opposite, because on Thursday the pair sharply fell to the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (97.75). At the time of writing USD/JPY was trading inside the Cloud. All lines of the indicator went sideways indicating a high likelihood of a flat. The nearest support level is at Senkou Span B (97.75).

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Tatyana Norkina for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/808

[⭐ kaito kid]

Citi: trading the US NFP

Citi's economists are forecasting the October NFP to come at 130K (consensus: 121K, September: 148K). Unemployment rate is expected to jump to 7.5% (consensus: 7.3%, September: 7.2%). "A good number is USD positive, but risk negative, as expectations of a December Fed Taper are dragged forward," analysts say.

Citi outlines 5 main scenarios for the today's NFP reading:

1. Below 90K (5% chance). Broad USD weakness as Taper expectations are delayed into 2014. EUR and GBP supported. USD/JPY drops to the 97 mark.

2. 90 - 110K (10% chance). Stocks positive. Buy AUD/USD.

3. 110 - 130K (25% chance). It is the most likely outcome. FX markets continue with the current trends, fading any EUR/USD strength and buying USD/JPY weakness. Immediate impact is limited.

4. 130 - 150K (45% chance). USD buying gains momentum. EUR/USD and GBP/USD weaken initially, but may gain ground later.

5. Above 150K (10% chance). Taper expectations accelerated to December and very USD positive. Negative for the emerging currencies and stocks.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/809

[fxapex]

Buying opportunity in AUD right now......going to make a stable upward move....

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 11: Asian session

US dollar is a bit lower versus its counterparts before Fed’s officials speak amid signs the US economy may be strong enough for the central bank to taper monetary stimulus. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will speak tomorrow. Today French, US and Canadian banks are closed for the bank holidays.

EUR/USD edged up a bit to $1.3360 after it found support at the 100-day MA. Euro declined ahead of data this week that may show factory output declined in the currency bloc and after an unexpected rate reduction by the ECB. German Buba President Weidmann will speak at 17:00 GMT. Otherwise, we are light on data. GBP/USD returned to the levels above $1.6000 after it opened with a small gap down.

USD/JPY has weakened back below the 99.00 mark. Japan’s current account deficit came worse than expected. USD/CHF is stuck around 0.9225 after it met resistance at 0.9250 on Thursday and Friday.

AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.9370/90 range after the recent sharp drop. NZD/USD has recovered to $0.8290 after having formed a shooting star candle over the last week. The New Zealand finance minister English said NZ budget was on track for surplus in 2014/15. Data on Saturday showed China's industrial production and investment grew in October, while annual inflation rose to the fastest level in 8 months. USD/CAD declined to 1.0475 after peaking to the level around 1.0500 on Friday.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/682

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD is probing Friday's low

AUD/USD was trading just below $0.9390 earlier in the day as industrial output growth unexpectedly accelerated in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, and domestic home loans increased. Then, however, Aussie slipped down approaching Friday’s minimum at $0.9355.

AUD is trading below the 55-day MA and that’s a bearish start of the week. The bears will dominate until the pair is below last week’s high at $0.9542.

Support lies at $0.9350, $0.9333, $0.9300/9290 (psychological level, daily Ichimoku Cloud top) and $0.9382 (Sept. 30 low).

Note that AUD is vulnerable for a decline in case of positive US data. According to NAB, “one more good report could see the Fed begin reducing its bond purchases as early as its 17-18 December meeting” making investors buy USD. On the Australian part, watch for NAB business confidence due tomorrow at 00:30 GMT.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/817

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: testing the resistance

Last week the USD/JPY pair had a volatile trade, testing the levels above the upper boundary of the long-term triangle. The pair closed the week at 99.15, supported by the NFP-caused euphoria on Friday. However, the bulls were not strong enough to make an impressive break to the upside. Moreover, the pair has formed a weekly “hanging man” candle, pointing to the bearish prospects of the pair. On Monday the pair is trading under a slight pressure, but still holds above 99.00.

For now the upside remains limited by the sell orders clustered in the 99.50/100.00 area (September 20 highs). Rise above 100 would open the way for a further growth. On the downside, the pair remains supported by the 200-day MA (97.75).

Strategists at Bank of America recommend staying “patient” on the pair as long as the pair holds above 98.90 (triangle resistance). In their view, bears will take the pair under control only on a break below 96.60 (October low).

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/815

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: technicals and fundamentals

US dollar got a lift last week from good GDP and nonfarm payrolls data (204K vs. 121K). Now economists say that we have to be sure that there really is a positive trend in economy and labor market. If there is, the market will start speculating that the Fed may start QE tapering already in December. The Fed’s Chairperson Designate Yellen is going to testify on Thursday.

The pair retraced more than 50% of its Friday’s fall, but is on the verge of breaking below the daily Ichimoku Cloud. There’s some consolidation going on H1 and H4 charts. Support lies at $1.3312/3295 (50% Fibo of the advance from July to October, 200-week MA). Resistance is at $1.3420, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3547.

Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that diverging monetary policy outlook will be driving EUR/USD lower in the medium term. In the near term, however, one has to bear in mind that the ECB members Weidmann, Asmussen and Nowotny are due to speak today. According to Financial Times, all of them voted last week against cutting the refi rate, so their comments may actually provide euro some support. In addition, the euro area will release inflation and flash GDP this week. Upward revision in inflation would be EUR-positive, though UBS warns EUR bulls against being too hopeful.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/816

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 12: European session

US dollar remains broadly supported versus the major currencies as the last week’s upbeat US data increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve stimulus reduction. Emerging currencies and stock markets are trading under pressure.

GBP/USD has fallen to $1.5850 on British inflation data. Cable broke below the significant $1.5900 support area. UK consumer prices increased by 2.2% y/y in October versus 2.5% expected and 2.7% in September.

EUR/USD keeps its consolidative move in the $1.3400/3300 area. Today euro declined to $1.3365 and almost erased yesterday’s gains. Euro was hit today as German wholesale prices fell by 1.0%. ECB officials Asmussen and Nowotny made some dovish comments today.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/688

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3315, $1.3350 (large), $1.3395, $1.3400, $1.3450;

GBP/USD: $1.5920, $1.5950, $1.6160;

USD/JPY: 98.70, 99.00, 99.15, 99.25 (large), 99.35, 100.00, 100.25;

AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9380, $0.9385, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0475, 1.0500, 1.0525;

EUR/GBP: 0.8360.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/687

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: bearish views

EUR/USD keeps its consolidative move in the $1.3400/3300 area. SEB Bank points out that the triangle seen on the H4 chart is a continuation pattern and expect the pair to go below $1.3295 (Nov. 7 low) before long.

Morgan Stanley set a sell limit at $1.3450, with a stop at $1.3550, and a target at $1.3200. According to the analysts, euro zone data have the potential to provide further weak readings, with declines in industrial production and still negative year-on-year GDP prints for Q3 expected by the market consensus.

Analysts at BNP Paribas also recommend selling EUR on any bounces higher against USD, GBP and AUD.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/819

[⭐ kaito kid]

BNY Mellon: USD will start weakening

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. says that US dollar will turn down versus EUR and JPY in the coming months as the Fed pares monetary stimulus at a slower pace than the market expects.

The bank expects EUR/USD to test $1.38 in 3 months and $1.45 in a year, while USD/JPY to slide to 93.00 within 5 months.

The specialists say that EUR “still represents the largest alternative reserve currency” to USD and there are no more risks to the single currency’s existence. As for JPY, the analysts don’t expect it to weaken much as Japanese money isn’t pushing overseas.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/823

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 13: Asian session

EUR/USD breached short-term triangle to the upside and is now trading below resistance at $1.3450. Euro’s advance is limited ahead of the upcoming data releases which may show that the euro zone’s economy is in a bad state and strengthen speculation the European Central Bank will take more measures after a rate cut last week. Watch the euro zone’s industrial production figures at 10:00 GMT (forecast: -0.2%; previous: 1.0%). Bundesbank President Weidmann will speak at 12:10 GMT.

GBP/USD is consolidating just below $1.5900. Pound declined yesterday on lower inflation data. Today markets are waiting for UK employment dta at 09:30 GMT and the Bank of England's Inflation Report and Mark Carney’s speech at 10:30 GMT. USD/JPY eased from the yesterday’s 6-week high of 99.80 to 99.50. USD/CHF is trading a bit on the downside, around 0.9170.

NZD/USD has recovered to $0.8230 after a dip to $0.8170 in the late US trade. The RBNZ Governor Wheeler said today a strong NZ currency poses a risk for the economy, but the bank is likely to start raising rates next year. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.9290/9310 range after having dipped to $0.9270 yesterday. China stock market is down as the Communist Party meeting communiqué lacked any important details. USD/CAD is trading below resistance at 1.0500.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/690

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3485, $1.3500 (large), $1.3520, $1.3525;

GBP/USD: $1.5850, $1.5970, $1.6025;

USD/JPY: 98.50, 99.00, 99.30, 99.50, 100.00 (large), 100.15, 100.25;

AUD/USD: $0.9300, $0.9350, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9420, $0.9450;

USD/CAD: 1.0500;

NZD/USD: 0.8350;

EUR/GBP: 0.8350 0.8355 0.8450;

EUR/JPY: 133.50 133.75;

AUD/JPY: 92.25.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/691

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP bounces on BoE Inflation Report

GBP/USD jumped from levels in the $1.5890 area to $1.6000.

UK unemployment rate declined from 7.7% to 7.6%, and the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell more than the economists had projected.

The Bank of England also released the Inflation Report. According to the BoE, British CPI may tick up in coming months as utility price hikes take effect. GDP growth forecast for 2013 was raised from 1.4% to 1.6% and for 2014 – from 2.6% to 2.8%. The interest rates won’t be increased as long as unemployment rate is above 7%. Governor Carney sees 47% chance of unemployment hitting target by the end of 2014, 57% – by the end of 2015, 68% – by the end of 2016.

Chart. H1 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/692

[⭐ kaito kid]

Societe Generale: selling JPY

Strategists at Societe Generale will be closely watching the yen crosses this week as USD/JPY is very likely to break above the key 100.00 resistance. In their view, the current decline of JPY is caused by the widening of the US/Japanese yield spread.

On the back of this idea, they recommend selling the yen versus USD, NZD and CAD. "AUD is failing to join in the general risk rally and isn't helped by a dip in business confidence as measured by NAB survey", they add.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/826

[⭐ kaito kid]

Commerzbank: bullish on USD/CHF

USD/CHF breached last week the resistance line connecting July and September highs and retraced 38.2% of the decline since summer. So far US dollar has been limited on the upside by the 100-day MA around 0.9240 and slid to 0.9170. Support lies at 0.9130, 0.9100 and 0.9050. Resistance is at 0.9210, 0.9250 and 0.9300.

There’s little on the economic agenda for today, so traders will be bracing themselves for Janet Yellen’s testimony at her confirmation hearings Thursday.

Commerzbank remains bullish on the pair targeting 0.9320/22 (200-day MA and 50% Fibo retracement of the move down from July) and then to 0.9455 (September peak) and eventually to the 0.9610 (55-month MA).

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/825

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 14: Asian session

Today the Fed’s chairman nominee Janet Yellen will testify in Congress (15:00 GMT). Yesterday Yellen said the economy is “far short” of its potential and must improve before the US central bank can slow stimulus. Also watch US unemployment claims and trade balance at 13:30 GMT.

EUR/USD met resistance at $1.3500 and then eased down to $1.3460. Euro fell after the ECB executive board member Peter Praet said the central bank can use negative interest rates. A bunch of data is released in Europe today: French and German GDP (06:30 and 07:00 GMT), French NFP at 07:45 (GMT), the ECB monthly bulletin at 09:00 GMT, euro zone’s flash GDP at 10:00 GMT (see the economic calendar for details).

GBD/USD is trading on the downside, pound declined by 30 pips from $1.6060. Sterling’s correcting a bit after it gained about 150 pips yesterday as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave an upbeat assessment of the country’s economy, saying the recovery has finally taken hold.

USD/JPY rose to 99.70. Yen weakened as Asian stocks gained and after data showed Japan’s growth slowed in Q3 (from +0.9% to +0.5%), adding to the case for the central bank to boost stimulus. Finance Minister Taro Aso said it’s important that the nation has intervention as a policy option. USD/CHF rose by 20 pips to $1.9150.

AUD/USD spiked to $0.9387 before falling to $0.9350. Aussie declined on the dovish comments from the RBA. NZD/USD spiked to $0.8355 before going down to test levels below $0.8300. USD/CAD added 30 pips from 1.0440. Canada will release trade balance at 13:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/693

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 14: European session

EUR/USD is testing levels below $1.3450. German growth slowed in Q3 from 0.7% to 0.3% on declining exports, while France’s economy contracted by 0.1%. Euro zone’s flash GDP rose only by 0.1% in the third quarter (forecast: +0.2%). According to the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters released today, euro zone’s economy will contract by 0.4% in 2013 before adding 1.0% in 2014.

GBP/USD fell to $1.6000. British retail sales dropped by 0.7% (forecast: 0.0%).

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/695

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3350, $1.3370, $1.3390, $1.3480, $1.3485, $1.3500 (large), $1.3525;

GBP/USD: $1.5920, $1.5950, $1.5995, $1.6000, $1.6020, $1.6050;

USD/JPY: 98.25, 98.50 (large), 98.70, 98.85, 98.90, 99.00, 99.30, 99.50 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.25, 100.50;

AUD/USD: $0.9250, $0.9260, $0.9275, $0.9300 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0490;

EUR/GBP: 0.8400, 0.8420, 0.8450 (large) 0.8485 (large);

EUR/JPY: 132.90, 133.25.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/694

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: sell at $1.3512 targeting $1.3390 with stop at $1.3566;

USD/JPY: long at 99.50 targeting 100.62 with stop at 98.91;

GBP/USD: possibly buy near $1.5944;

USD/CHF: buy at 0.9113 targeting 0.9226 with stop at 0.9064;

AUD/USD: possibly buy lower;

USD/CAD: long at 1.0430 targeting 1.0569 with stop at 1.0395.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/828

[⭐ kaito kid]

Analysts: bearish on GBP/USD

Morgan Stanley went short on GBP/USD from $1.6060, with a stop at $1.6160 and and a target at $1.5750.

"We expect GBP/USD to come under renewed pressure. We believe that the risks for GBP are likely to intensify, with heightened market expectations regarding the UK economic outlook likely to face some challenges," MS explains.

Analysts at Commerzbank expect the $1.6070/1.6125 resistance area to cap the upside. "We regard the pattern as a potential double top. A daily close below $1.5895 will complete the pattern and open the way for our target at $1.5535.”

ANZ strategists expect the cable to trade sideways in the $1.6200/1.5700 range into the year-end as much of the UK economic progress is already priced in by the markets. They point that pretty much will depend on Yellen’s testimony today at 15:00 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/832