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USD rally might see a pause – TDS





FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, view that the next few weeks might see a pause in USD’s rally and a drop in FX volatility.

Key Quotes

“Despite the pop in the USD into the end of the week, we continue to think the broader rally will pause in the next few weeks. If it does, it is likely that major FX vol will ease back as well.”

“Choppy markets have prompted some market participants to head for the sidelines in the past week but calmer markets may be at hand.”

“We ran a quick and dirty study of the seasonality in FX volatility and found that JPM’s Global Volatility Index also experiences a seasonal quirk moving into Q2; 18 of the last 20 Aprils have seen FX vol fall by this measure and the month is easily the worst month of the year for vol performance over the year.”

“Our rolling studies show that the USD has a relatively strong, positive correlation with JPM FX vol index (+62% on a rolling 1-month window) while EUR and the GBP are similarly negatively correlated currently. It looks as if a dip in the USD and a modest slide in vol will go hand in hand over the next few weeks.”







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Mar 27,2015
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USD/JPY eyeing new highs – EW-Forecast





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast, uses Elliott Wave Analysis to give the technical outlook for USD/JPY.

Key Quotes

“USDJPY is in a pullback mode, making a complex corrective wave (iv) that already touched important Fibonacci level near 118.30 from where price turned slightly up in the last couple of sessions so we are wondering if downward correction is complete.”

“Well, as long we have lower lows and lower swing highs in place it will be hard to confirm coming strength, but move above 119.99 swing would be a different story.”

“In that case, we will look for a rally up into wave (v), back to new high.”







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USD/CAD into US Q4 GDP revision – FXStreet





FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Dhwani Mehta, gives the outlook for USD/CAD taking into consideration the possible outcomes for US Q4 GDP revision data.

Key Quotes

“USD/CAD is seen extending losses below 1.25 barrier and is likely to continue its bearish momentum as the US GDP data may miss market expectations as anticipated.”

“The pair may fall to the immediate support at 1.2460 levels, below which doors will open for a retest of 1.24 handle.”

“However, if the US GDP figures come out in line with expectations or beat expectations, USD bulls may take charge and the pair is likely to pierce through 1.2500 levels and retest daily highs at 1.2530, beyond which the pair may shoot to 1.2600 levels.”





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Expect significant oil price growth towards 2015-end – KBC





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the key probable reasons behind disruption in oil prices due to the Yemen conflict, and further shares the outlook for oil price.

Key Quotes

“The price of Brent soared and hit a two-week high yesterday on news that Saudi-led coalition started air-strikes in neighbouring Yemen.”

“Regarding geopolitical risks, the talks between Iran and the world powers about its nuclear programme present larger risk for the oil price, in our view. If the agreement was reached and the Western sanctions were lifted, the country could increase its oil exports by 1 mbpd. This poses a clear downside risk for oil prices (especially in a situation of already oversupplied market).”

“Even though Yemen itself is a rather small producer of oil - in 2014, its average production reached 0.13 million barrels per day (bpd) – the news triggered a relatively large market response.”

“The key reason probably is that market worries about a possible disruption of oil flow through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb (about 3.8 mbpd), which is, however, not likely given the pledge of the head of the US forces in the region to keep the route open.”

“We therefore maintain our view that the oil price could decline in weeks and months to come and expect more significant price growth towards the end of this year. The balance of risks is, however, skewed in the direction of longer period of low oil prices.”








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What to expect from Yellen? – BBH





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, suggests that markets should anticipate more of the same wordings from Yellen from her previous speech.

Key Quotes

“In her Congressional testimony last month, Yellen strongly hinted that the Federal Reserve would lose its "patience" in its forward guidance. She cautioned that this was not to be understood as a signal an imminent rate hike at the next meeting”

“The Fed is looking for an opportunity to begin to normalize monetary policy. Given the size of its balance sheet, and the excess reserves it created, changing monetary policy presents operational challenges, which is another reason to expect to move slowly and cautiously.”

“As many observers perceived the Fed more dovish than we think it is, they also perceive the Fed to be more concerned about the dollar than we think it is.”

“Given its recent substantial moves against most currencies, it only stands to reason that officials would be watching it more closely.”

“We think many have confused watching closely with being concerned. There had been some speculation that the FOMC statement would mention the dollar's strength, but it did not. There was a reference to the slowing exports, but this is an objective description, not a prediction.”

“And when asked, Yellen did say that the strength of the dollar was one of the factors. No one pressed her about other factors in addition to the dollar that weighed on exports. If they did, Yellen would likely to have explained how the European and Japanese economies were weaker than expected and that the Chinese economy was slowing."

“So what to expect from the soft-spoken Yellen? More of the same, but listen closely. “








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GBP/USD might shift to neutral levels, but political risk exists – Scotiabank





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, views that GBP/USD might plot fresh lows in the near-term, but shift to more neutral levels later, the outlook being highly dependent on how the UK election scenario works out.

Key Quotes

“GBP is up 0.4%, outperforming all the major currencies into the NA open, but still within its recent range.”

“Governor Carney, speaking for potentially the last time into the May 7th election, reiterated that the next interest rate move will be higher. However, the uncertainty around the upcoming elections is an important risk for GBP and with the upcoming schedule of debates and interviews it will be hard for markets to ignore.”

“GBP is likely to trade within a range, with the threat of fresh lows in the near-term; but eventually shift back towards move neutral levels.”

“However this is dependent on how the new government (or coalition) lands in terms of the outlook for the EU referendum, the devolution potential (shifting of sovereign state power to the subnational level) and fiscal plans, particularly revenue/spending and austerity.”








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NOK/SEK points north in the near term TDS





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities expect the Nordic cross to inch higher in the near term.

Key Quotes

NOKSEK rallied hard from 1.0360 last week, right where we expected the slide to base when we looked at this cross earlier in March, forming bullish daily and weekly reversal signals in the process.

The NOK rebound has stalled at the 61.8% Fib retracement of the February/March decline (40-day MA resistance also) this week. But losses have been limited and, on the basis of last weeks gains alone, the technical bias is geared towards more NOKSEK gains in the near-term.

A clear move above the 40-day MA (1.0851) should allow for more near-term NOK out-performance at least and a test of long-term trend (off the 2008 high) resistance at 1.1171.






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Mar 30,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NOK/SEK points north in the near term TDS





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities expect the Nordic cross to inch higher in the near term.

Key Quotes

NOKSEK rallied hard from 1.0360 last week, right where we expected the slide to base when we looked at this cross earlier in March, forming bullish daily and weekly reversal signals in the process.

The NOK rebound has stalled at the 61.8% Fib retracement of the February/March decline (40-day MA resistance also) this week. But losses have been limited and, on the basis of last weeks gains alone, the technical bias is geared towards more NOKSEK gains in the near-term.

A clear move above the 40-day MA (1.0851) should allow for more near-term NOK out-performance at least and a test of long-term trend (off the 2008 high) resistance at 1.1171.






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Mar 30,2015
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GBP/USD sees scope to test 1.4690 FXStreet





FXStreet (Barcelona) - With technicals suggesting the strong bearish momentum for GBP/USD is building, a move towards 1.4690 might be possible on a break below 1.4730, explains Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet.

Key Quotes

The 4 hours chart shows a strong bearish momentum coming from technical readings, as the price retraces from a bearish 20 SMA, currently around 1.4860.

Nevertheless, as long as below 1.4800, the downside is favored towards the next strong static support level at 1.4730, whilst if below this last, the downward potential may accelerate towards 1.4690.

Above 1.4800 on the other hand, the pair may advance up to the mentioned 1.4860, with selling interest probably surging near the level.






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Personal income in the US rose 0.4% in February




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US department of commerce on Monday showed personal income rose 0.4% in February compared to the expectation of a 0.3% rise. The personal income rose 0.4% in January.

The personal spending in February rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to the expectation of a 0.2% rise. Personal spending had suffered a drop of 0.2% in January. Meanwhile, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) - price index was a touch higher at 1.4% year-on-year in February, compared to 1.3% in January. Month-on-month core PCE rose 0.1% in February.







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Personal income in the US rose 0.4% in February




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US department of commerce on Monday showed personal income rose 0.4% in February compared to the expectation of a 0.3% rise. The personal income rose 0.4% in January.

The personal spending in February rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to the expectation of a 0.2% rise. Personal spending had suffered a drop of 0.2% in January. Meanwhile, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) - price index was a touch higher at 1.4% year-on-year in February, compared to 1.3% in January. Month-on-month core PCE rose 0.1% in February.







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USD/RUB seen back above 60.00 TDS




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - There could be further weakness in store for the Russian currency, pushing the pair higher, suggested strategists at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

In Russia, CPI data is expected to show inflation remaining around the 16.7% level seen in February, suggesting that we are close to the peak.

Yet, a more important local driver is the end of the tax period (large tax payments of RUB800bn+ due on 25 and 30 March have supported the RUB), which, in conjunction with weaker oil prices, is likely to push USDRUB higher (possibly back to 60.00).








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Mar 30,2015
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Long GBP/USD, target 1.5000 GrowthAces




FXStreet (Barcelona) - With GBP/USD pressured by election uncertainty, the Growth Aces Research Team remains bullish on the pair, expecting a soft US NFP to push the pair higher towards 1.5000 levels.

Key Quotes

The GBP is weakening against the USD despite good Britains GDP data. However, the GBP appreciated against the EUR after the release and the EUR/GBP fell to a low of 0.7256.

The GBP is still under pressure of political uncertainty. Britain holds a parliamentary election on May 7 and the latest opinion polls point to a hung parliament in which no single party can form a government on its own.

A broad USD strength poses a risk to our long GBP/USD position. However, we stay long. The target is likely to be achieved in case of weaker U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Resistance: 1.4817 (hourly high Mar 31), 1.4901 (high Mar 30), 1.4923 (high Mar 27)

Support: 1.4752 (low Mar 30), 1.4722 (low Mar 20), 1.4689 (low Mar 19)

GBP/USD: long at 1.4820, target 1.5000, stop-loss 1.4740, risk factor ***




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Mar 31,2015
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Long GBP/USD, target 1.5000 GrowthAces




FXStreet (Barcelona) - With GBP/USD pressured by election uncertainty, the Growth Aces Research Team remains bullish on the pair, expecting a soft US NFP to push the pair higher towards 1.5000 levels.

Key Quotes

The GBP is weakening against the USD despite good Britains GDP data. However, the GBP appreciated against the EUR after the release and the EUR/GBP fell to a low of 0.7256.

The GBP is still under pressure of political uncertainty. Britain holds a parliamentary election on May 7 and the latest opinion polls point to a hung parliament in which no single party can form a government on its own.

A broad USD strength poses a risk to our long GBP/USD position. However, we stay long. The target is likely to be achieved in case of weaker U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Resistance: 1.4817 (hourly high Mar 31), 1.4901 (high Mar 30), 1.4923 (high Mar 27)

Support: 1.4752 (low Mar 30), 1.4722 (low Mar 20), 1.4689 (low Mar 19)

GBP/USD: long at 1.4820, target 1.5000, stop-loss 1.4740, risk factor ***




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Mar 31,2015
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NZD/USD might end 2015 at 0.68 BAML




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Yang Chen, Rates Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, explains that NZD strength might lead the RBNZ to shift to an easing bias, and further expects AUD/NZD to remain range-bound in the near term and NZD/USD to end the year at 0.68.

Key Quotes

The RBNZs neutral stance at its March monetary policy meeting (RBNZ on hold with a gradual evolution policy,12 March), together with a relatively dovish Fed, make the NZD one of the two major currencies globally that appreciated the USD over the past month (the other being the CNY). This sent the trade weighted index to the upper bound of the 75-80 range it remained since Aug 2014.

There remains a risk of the RBNZ shifting to an easing bias if the NZD remains strong, in our view. In the March MPS, the RBNZ switched to a flat 90d bill forecast, as opposed to gradually higher rates, which is a big change.

The RBNZ has lowered its 1Q15 inflation forecast to 0%, and the key is whether current low inflation will pass on to the inflation expectations. Hence, the 1Q CPI inflation figure (on 20 April) and OCR meeting (on 30 April) will be critical for the evolution of NZD/USD going forward.

We retain our forecast for the NZD/USD at 0.68 by the end of the year.

AUD/NZD looks undervalued relative to their respective economic surprise index, but the pair will likely trade range bound for now with a neutral RBNZ and lack of data prior to late April.

The risk to our view is an aggressive easing from the PBoC, especially in the housing market, which should benefit AUD more than the NZD.




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GBP/USD struggles to rise above 1.48




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair was rejected by 1.58 levels for the second time today, despite the upward revision of the Q4 2014 GDP and a fall in Q4 current account deficit.

GBP lacks support of Gilt yields

Despite the upward revision of the Q4 GDP the Gilt yields are trading moderately lower. The 10-year Gilt yield in the UK has weakened to 1.572% from the high of 1.6%. Consequently, the British Pound has been unable to capitalize on the positive economic data.

So far, the pair has managed to sustain above 1.4750 levels as the Treasury yields have weakened as well. An upbeat US consumer confidence and Chicago PMI data due later today, could drive the pair to fresh session lows.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4819, above which gains could be extended to 1.4878 levels. On the flip side, a break below 1.4749 could drive the pair lower to 1.47 levels.






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Mar 31,2015
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EUR/USD pulled down by EZ inflation and Greece FXStreet




FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Eurozone inflation remaining low, and no solution for the Greece funding issue, EUR/USD trades under pressure, notes Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, and further expects a break below 1.0710 to confirm a probable move towards 1.0660.

Key Quotes

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline this Tuesday, down to 1.0712 in the European morning on broad dollar strength.

The pair found some short term demand around the 23.6% of the 1.1533/1.0461 monthly slide, albeit the recovery remains shallow, limited around 1.0760.

Fundamentally, news came from Germany and resulted for the most positive, with unemployment down to 6.4% in March and Retail Sales up 3.6% in February, slightly below the 3.7% expected.

But the good news were not enough to overshadow the fact that Greece and the EU have not yet found a solution to the debt problem of the troubled country that is in a brink of running out of cash and that the EZ inflation remains extremely low.

During the US session, several FOMC members will be offering different speeches, which can affect the dollar accordingly to their hawkishness when it comes to a rate hike.

In the meantime, the 1 hour chart shows that the price extended far below its moving averages, whist the technical indicators correct oversold readings, aiming higher below their mid-lines.

In the 4 hours chart however the technical outlook favors the downside, with a break below 1.0710 required to confirm a new leg south towards the 1.0660 price zone.

Support levels: 1.0710 1.0660 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0800 1.0840






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GBP/USD bearish tone prevails FXStreet




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD requires a break below 1.4750 to confirm further intraday declines.

Key Quotes

Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price erased half of its intraday losses, still well below its 20 SMA around 1.4830, whilst indicators recover from oversold levels but remain in negative territory.

In the 4 hours chart the bearish tone prevails with the price developing below its 20 SMA and the technical indicators below their mid-lines.

Renewed selling interest below the 1.4750 however, is required to confirm further intraday declines, particularly if the price remains capped below the mentioned 1.4830 price zone.

Support levels: 1.4750 1.4710 1.4660

Resistance levels: 1.4830 1.4990 1.4900






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Apr 01,2015
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US: ISM manufacturing PMI declines for fifth month in a row




FXStreet (Córdoba) - US manufacturing sector expanded but a slower pace in March according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in March from 52.9 printed in February and missing consensus of 52.5.

Although the sector is still expanding (reading above the 50.0 threshold), the pace has been slowing for fifth month in a row, sending the index to the lowest level in almost two years.

Just a few minutes before the ISM, Markit reported its own manufacturing PMI which rose to 55.7 from 55.1 in February.






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NZD/USD recovers to 0.7440




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The NZD/USD pair, which fell on disappointing Fonterra global diary trade auction, managed to recover back to 0.7440 on the disappointing US manufacturing PMI data.

Gains capped by fall in GDP price index

The pair recovered to trade at 0.7440 from the low of 0.7710 on a weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing figure, however, the gains could be capped by a 10.8% fall in the global dairy trade price index at the latest Fonterra auction.

The weakness in the dairy prices could weigh on the Kiwi, thereby limiting gains arising out of a weak ADP employment report and PMI manufacturing report.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 0.7465 (50-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 0.7489. On the flip side, support is seen at 0.7410, under which losses could be extended to 0.7371.







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Apr 01,2015
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Treasuries: risks skewed to the downside RBS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - With treasuries closing the bearish gap and seeing a barrier at 129-00, Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, believes that the next move would be lower towards 127-19 onto 126-18 and 126-00.

Key Quotes

Risks remain skewed to the downside after the break above the trendline on the yield chart and the formation of a bearish outside session on the futures price chart, which, contrary to Bunds charts, indicated downside risks for the market.

The breakaway gap at 128-26 was closed, but the 129-00 resistance proved to cap further rallies, as was expected. My bias was that there may be another push higher towards 129-00, but ultimately decline to 127-19+ onto 126-18+ and 126-00.

The push higher has already occurred. With level unbroken, it is now time to expect price decline.

A sustained break above 129-09 would require the view re-assessed, while a break above 129-29 cancels the view+.

Strategy: keep short from 128-29+ for 127-31 onto 127-00, stop 129-29







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EUR/USD contained by 1.0715




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to waver within its recent range, with the pullback from last weeks highs having found interim support at the 1.0715 area.

EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase over the last sessions as investors gear up for the long weekend in Europe and the nonfarm payrolls report in the US. The US Government will publish March employment report on Friday, with consensus calling for a 244K job gain.

Todays data showed the US private sector added fewer jobs than expected (189K vs 225K exp), although this report has been underperforming NFP data over the last months. Strong employment data has supported the view the Fed could begin raising rates in the June-September period, which has driven the USD to multi-year highs versus most competitors in March. As for EUR/USD, the pair struck a 12-year low of 1.0462 on March 13th before staging a significant correction that was capped by the 1.1050 zone.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0760, with immediate resistances lining up at 1.0800 (daily high/psychological level) and 1.0823 (100-hour SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0714 (Mar 31/Apr 1 lows), 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0648 (Mar 20 low).






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Apr 01,2015
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EUR/USD contained by 1.0715




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to waver within its recent range, with the pullback from last weeks highs having found interim support at the 1.0715 area.

EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase over the last sessions as investors gear up for the long weekend in Europe and the nonfarm payrolls report in the US. The US Government will publish March employment report on Friday, with consensus calling for a 244K job gain.

Todays data showed the US private sector added fewer jobs than expected (189K vs 225K exp), although this report has been underperforming NFP data over the last months. Strong employment data has supported the view the Fed could begin raising rates in the June-September period, which has driven the USD to multi-year highs versus most competitors in March. As for EUR/USD, the pair struck a 12-year low of 1.0462 on March 13th before staging a significant correction that was capped by the 1.1050 zone.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0760, with immediate resistances lining up at 1.0800 (daily high/psychological level) and 1.0823 (100-hour SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0714 (Mar 31/Apr 1 lows), 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0648 (Mar 20 low).






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Apr 01,2015
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EUR/USD contained by 1.0715




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to waver within its recent range, with the pullback from last weeks highs having found interim support at the 1.0715 area.

EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase over the last sessions as investors gear up for the long weekend in Europe and the nonfarm payrolls report in the US. The US Government will publish March employment report on Friday, with consensus calling for a 244K job gain.

Todays data showed the US private sector added fewer jobs than expected (189K vs 225K exp), although this report has been underperforming NFP data over the last months. Strong employment data has supported the view the Fed could begin raising rates in the June-September period, which has driven the USD to multi-year highs versus most competitors in March. As for EUR/USD, the pair struck a 12-year low of 1.0462 on March 13th before staging a significant correction that was capped by the 1.1050 zone.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0760, with immediate resistances lining up at 1.0800 (daily high/psychological level) and 1.0823 (100-hour SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0714 (Mar 31/Apr 1 lows), 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0648 (Mar 20 low).






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EUR/JPY poised to drop towards 128 SG



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Technical Analysts at Societe Generale, view that EUR/JPY is set to make a move lower towards 128 and even 126.

Key Quotes

The rebound in EUR/JPY during the second half of March appears to have faced resistance near 131.80, the 34-day MA and the 50% retracement from the February high.

With the daily RSI retracing from a resistance, the pair looks poised to drift towards 128 and probably even towards the previous low of 126.

It is noteworthy that the pair is undergoing an extended correction after violating a multi-year upward channel.

The weekly RSI is hovering close to a support, indicating 126 as a key level. A break below will mean the next leg of correction towards 122.





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Apr 02,2015
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