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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD in fresh lows post-Payrolls


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone around the single currency is growing bigger on Friday, with EUR/USD now meandering fresh lows.

EUR/USD weaker following Non-farm Payrolls

The pair is quickly accelerating its intraday downside after the US economy created 295K jobs during February, beating prior surveys at 240K and up from January’s 239K (revised from 257K). In addition, the jobless rate ticked lower to 5.5%, bettering consensus.

EUR/USD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is retreating 1.29% at 1.0885 facing the next support at 1.0800 (psychological level) On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1218 (high Mar.3) would expose 1.1245 (high Feb.27) and then 1.1271 (10-d MA).







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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CNY bullish bias – BTMU





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, retains their bullish bias on USD/CNY, supported by the positive view for Chinese headline CPI inflation.

Key Quotes

“Authorities have clearly been trying to calm spot the past two sessions, but DXY is rising and global disinflation won't go away soon.”

“If China's headline CPI inflation rebounds as we and markets expect, these will all exacerbate CNY REER strength, implying higher fixings could return. We retain our bullish lean.”

“Both PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang and advisor Chen Yulu said there was no urgent need to widen the trading band (which has also been our view), so upside is capped by the fix.”

“As February economic indicators roll in, we are watching if retail performance improves, an early indication of lower oil price stimulus. We are also thinking total social financing will exceed expectations as new bank lending is pushed by authorities, meaning possibly upside potential for fixed asset investment.”

“For the record, both CFLP and HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMIs rose in February, the latter noticeably.”

“USD/CNY – bullish bias – (6.2500-6.2850)”




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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/MXN hits 15.3500 on NFP





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is extending its upside momentum vs. the Mexican peso on Friday, lifting USD/MXN to fresh tops around 15.3500.

USD/MXN in multi-year peaks

Spot is trading in levels last seen in March 2009 in the 15.3000 area following a stellar print from the US labour market during February. The US economy added 295K jobs in the last month, surpassing forecasts for 240K and January’s print of 239K (revised down from 257K). In addition, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.5%, beating consensus at 5.6%.

USD/MXN levels to consider

At the moment spot is up 0.97% at 15.3406 with the next resistance at 15.3596 (high Mar.6) ahead of 15.5941 (monthly high Mar.2009) and finally 16.0000 (psychological level). On the downside, the initial support lies at 15.1719 (low Mar.6) followed by 15.0289 (low Mar.5) and then 14.9777 (low Mar.4).




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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY near-term risk towards 121.85 – Scotiabank





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that with risk aversion easing and USD on way to another bullish run, the near-term risks for USD/JPY lie for a re-test of 121.85 levels.

Key Quotes

“USDJPY traded in a relatively tight range with all the action taking place in EURJPY, which is driving towards fresh lows.”

“With risk aversion having eased from its January highs, fundamentals having failed to improve and the USD appearing to embark on a new leg higher; we see the near‐term risk for USDJPY as a test up to its ytd highs of 121.85.”




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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold falls to two-month low on US jobs report




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell to USD 1180.3/Oz levels, its lowest since the first week of January, after the better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls figures for February hit the wires.

Gold: Strong USD weighs

The yellow metal declined as the US dollar extended gains across the board following another month of a stellar jobs report. The US economy added 295K jobs, beating the expectation of 235K by a wide margin. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.55 in February. Consequently, the USD index rose sharply to 97.34 levels; up 0.97% for the day.

Moreover, the markets have ignored the fall in wages and the downward revision of the January’s NFP number. The yellow metal could extend weakness as a stellar jobs report could trigger speculation of an interest rate hike in the US in June.

Gold Technical Levels

The metal has an immediate support located at 1173.3, under which losses could be extended to 1160.70. On the flip side, resistance is seen at 1190.3 and 1200.00 levels.




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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD falls toward 0.7400 after strong US NFP




FXStreet (Córdoba) - NZD/USD fell sharply and turned intraday negative following a strong US jobs report, which triggered a dollar rally across the board.

NZD/USD fell more than 100 pips from daily highs and hit a 3-week low of 0.7404 after data showed the US economy created 295K new jobs in February, versus 240K expected, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.5%.

However, NZD/USD managed to hold above the 0.74 mark and it was last trading down 0.86% on the day at 0.7410. The pair is posting its second daily loss in a row after being rejected from above 0.7600 earlier this week.





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Mar 06,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/SEK still targets 9.30 medium term Danske Bank






FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, keeps the bullish view in the cross, backed by a potential further easing by the Riksbank.

Key Quotes

In the Scandies, EUR/SEK continues to trade with a heavy tone as the market re-prices Sweden.

The fundamental outlook for the SEK has improved substantially but we think the risk is increasing of a correction in EUR/SEK up towards 9.30 as the market should not rule out action from the Riksbank on SEK strength or new softness in data.

This week, the main data to focus on are the Prospera inflation survey and February CPI data due on Wednesday.




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Mar 09,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD upside expected to continue ANZ





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at ANZ continue to see a Feds rate hike in June and a stronger dollar in the next periods.

Key Quotes

The February NFP release was materially stronger than expected. NFPs rose by 295k and the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% from 5.7%.

Whilst earnings growth remains soft at 2.0% y/y, expectations are now firmly focused on a removal of the reference to patience at the March FOMC meeting.

That would confirm that the FOMC has moved away from date dependency in its forward guidance to data dependency.

If, as we expect, the activity data firms again in coming months, then the FOMC remains on course to begin normalising interest rates soon, probably at the June meeting.

In the interim, the USD can continue to take the strain for monetary tightening.



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Mar 09,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Japan GDP revised lower, officials wary of USD/JPY destabilization – BTMU





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, shares that Japan lowered its Q4 GDP to 1.5% from prevoous 2.2%, and further adds that the expected change in Fed’s forward guidance will keep Japanese officials maintain a cautious approach due to concerns about destabilization of USD/JPY.

Key Quotes

“After heavy yen selling on Friday versus the US dollar, USD/JPY was more stable today in response to the GDP data which saw the Q4 data revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5% on an annualised Q/Q basis.”

“The reason for the downgrade was mainly down to capital spending, which was revised down from +0.1% to -0.1% and private inventories which originally was reported to have contributed 0.2ppt to overall GDP but was now estimated to have taken 0.2ppt off growth.”

“The good news was that household consumption was actually revised higher and certainly points to the prospect that the Japanese consumer has recovered from the sales tax increase hit in Q2 and Q3 last year. The Economy Watchers’ Survey also suggests this with the current Index up from 45.6 in January to 50.1 in February - close to the initial recovery peak after the sales tax increase last year.”

“BOJ Deputy Governor Nakaso spoke today and came across a little cautiously when communicating on the yen. He stated that the yen should move “stably” reflecting economic and financial fundamentals. He declined to state that yen depreciation was a positive overall taking a more nuanced approach that there are different impacts for different segments of the economy.”

“We suspect a more cautious approach amongst Japanese officials is very likely going forward – if the Fed do move to raise the key rate in the US this week, there may well be concerns over a destabilising jump in USD/JPY.”




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Mar 09,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Japan GDP revised lower, officials wary of USD/JPY destabilization – BTMU





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, shares that Japan lowered its Q4 GDP to 1.5% from prevoous 2.2%, and further adds that the expected change in Fed’s forward guidance will keep Japanese officials maintain a cautious approach due to concerns about destabilization of USD/JPY.

Key Quotes

“After heavy yen selling on Friday versus the US dollar, USD/JPY was more stable today in response to the GDP data which saw the Q4 data revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5% on an annualised Q/Q basis.”

“The reason for the downgrade was mainly down to capital spending, which was revised down from +0.1% to -0.1% and private inventories which originally was reported to have contributed 0.2ppt to overall GDP but was now estimated to have taken 0.2ppt off growth.”

“The good news was that household consumption was actually revised higher and certainly points to the prospect that the Japanese consumer has recovered from the sales tax increase hit in Q2 and Q3 last year. The Economy Watchers’ Survey also suggests this with the current Index up from 45.6 in January to 50.1 in February - close to the initial recovery peak after the sales tax increase last year.”

“BOJ Deputy Governor Nakaso spoke today and came across a little cautiously when communicating on the yen. He stated that the yen should move “stably” reflecting economic and financial fundamentals. He declined to state that yen depreciation was a positive overall taking a more nuanced approach that there are different impacts for different segments of the economy.”

“We suspect a more cautious approach amongst Japanese officials is very likely going forward – if the Fed do move to raise the key rate in the US this week, there may well be concerns over a destabilising jump in USD/JPY.”




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Mar 09,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Credit Agricole: Fed soundings lifts USD; we stay long eFXnews





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes Credit Agricole views that with Fed on its track to hike rates in mid-year, USD remains a buy, especially versus EUR and CAD.

Key Quotes

The USD has remained in demand. Feds Fisher stressed that a repeat of 2014 economic growth would put the year-end jobless rate at around 4.5% and that taking policy clues from present wage growth would put the Fed in dangerous territory. As such he reaffirmed that the Fed should raise rates early rather than moving later. He added that wage pressures will build as unemployment falls.

Overall we remain of the view that the Fed will consider raising rates as soon as mid of this year. Well supported central bank monetary policy expectations should keep the USD a buy.

We remain long the currency versus the EUR, and CAD.

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.



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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Improving risk appetite negative for JPY, go long for $123.55 – GrowthAces





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team believe that the improving risk appetite as a result of QE will be negative for the Yen, and hence maintain a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, targeting 123.55 levels.

Key Quotes

“The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are the leaders in expanding their balance sheets in the relation to GDP of their countries. This means that the JPY and the CHF are likely to be under strongest pressure among major currencies.”

“The JPY and the CHF are also known safe-haven currencies and an improvement in risk appetite as a consequence of quantitative easing will be negative for these currencies.”

“We have raised our buy offer on the USD/JPY to 120.80.”

“The next strong resistance level is 123.67,daily high on July 9, 2007 and the target of our long position would be placed slightly below this level. The stop-loss level will be set below 119.90, daily low on March 6.”

“Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 121.29 (high Mar 6), 121.86 (high Dec 8), 122.00 (psychological level)

Support: 119.90 (low Mar 6), 119.47 (low Mar 4), 119.13 (low Feb 27)”

“USD/JPY: buy at 120.80, if filled – target 123.55, stop-loss 119.60”



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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bounces off 1.0720





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The European currency is now attempting to recover some ground vs. the US dollar on Tuesday, taking EUR/USD to the area of 1.0780/90 so far.

EUR/USD focus on Greece

Developments from Greece remain the main catalyst for the pair in the near term, with technical talks between Greek officials and the Eurogroup scheduled to start tomorrow regarding the recent reforms package submitted by Greece. In the same line, liquidity fears keep mounting in light of the €300 million repayment to the IMF due by the end of the week.

Nothing in terms of data releases in the euro area today, whereas the Business Optimism index tracked by NFIB ticked higher to 98.0 during February from 97.9 in the previous month.

EUR/USD relevant levels

As of writing the pair is losing 0.70% at 1.0776 and a breakdown of 1.0722 (12-year low Mar.10) would target 1.0502 (low Mar. 21 2003) and finally 1.0335 (2003 low. Jan.3). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.0855 (hourly high Mar.10) followed by 1.0906 (high Mar.9) and then 1.1033 (high Mar.6).




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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US stocks fall more than 1%





FXStreet (Córdoba) - US stocks fell sharply at the opening as the dollar strengthened further amid growing speculation the Federal Reserve could start hiking interest rates in June, in contrast with other major central banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 219 points, or 1.2%, to 17,778. The S&P 500 index fell 23 points, or 1.1%, to 2,056, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 64 points, or 1.30%, to 4,878.

Strong US nonfarm payrolls published last Friday fueled prospects the Fed could raise interest rates sometime mid-year, boosting the greenback across the board and weighing on stocks and commodities.

The US dollar index reached an 11-year high of 98.50 while EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in 12 years at 1.0725 on Tuesday.

Meanwhile renewed concerns about Greece debt situation also depressed risk sentiment and stocks across the globe.




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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Greek scenario continues to deteriorate – BBH





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH assessed the current panorama in the Greek-Eurogroup debt talks.

Key Quotes

“The latest reform proposals, delivered at the end of last week, were different from the proposals from February 20th rather than further developing them. According to press reports, some EU officials dismissed the latest proposals as "amateurish". It follows sending wrong documents and contradictory signals. This is not the same as inexperienced, which is a given and forgivable”.

“Greece has painfully little room to maneuver as the official creditor demands are onerous. The official creditors have cut off the assistance funds to Greece since the middle of last year, long before Syriza's electoral victory”.

“New technical discussions will start on Wednesday in Brussels. For largely symbolic reasons, Greece has resisted a visit by the official creditors to Athens. This has caused a delay and deepened the sense exasperation. Greece has a T-bill auction this week that will largely offset a maturing issue. It has a roughly another 300 mln euro payment due to the IMF by the end of the week”.




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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF climbs further, hits fresh 2-month highs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF continues to move toward parity, having extended gains to its highest level since the SNB abandoned the fran cap on January 15.

Underpinned by broad dollar strength, USD/CHF pushed higher and printed fresh 2-month high of 0.9969 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9965, recording a 1.12% gain on Tuesday.

While prospects of a rate hike by the Fed are lifting the greenback, recent chatter about the the Swiss government considering to set up a new EUR/CHF floor are hurting the franc.

USD/CHF levels to watch

As for technical levels, on the upside immediate resistances line up at 1.0000 (psychological level) and 1.0070 (100-month SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.9852 (daily low) and 0.9824 (Mar 9 low).





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Mar 10,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB should use all tools available to fulfil its mandate ECBs Praet



FXStreet (Mumbai) - European Central Bank (ECB) Board member Peter Praet said in a speech delivered at the Watchers XVI conference organized by the Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt today, the decision by the ECB to expand its asset purchases was meant to send a clear signal that the central bank doesn't have an instrument vacuum.

Key Quotes:

"If monetary dominance is to prevail the central bank should not hesitate to use all the tools available to fulfill its mandate",

"Reaffirms the central pillar of monetary dominance which is our commitment to our mandate,"

"We acted because we saw a real risk of not achieving our price stability objective over the medium-term. One may argue that we could have tolerated a deviation of inflation from our aim (namely to stabilize inflation around levels not far from 2% in the price stability range) for longer. Yet in my view this would have extended the notion of the medium term to temporal dimensions that would have been hardly justifiable on the basis of accountability to our objective".

"The mandate is meaningful only if exercised and assessed within reasonable time limits".





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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EM FX suffers the same fate as majors, USD to blame – BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team explains that broad based USD strength has led to many EM currencies weaken against the dollar.

Key Quotes

“It’s been an ugly week for EM. We’ve already seen new multi-year highs for USD/BRL, USD/CLP, USD/COP, USD/MXN, USD/ILS, USD/ZAR, USD/IDR, USD/KRW, USD/MYR, and USD/SGD.”

“This goes hand in hand with several cycle highs this week for the dollar against many of the majors, including JPY, AUD, EUR, DKK, NOK, and SEK.”

“It's pretty unusual to see so many USD highs being set at one time, which just goes to show just how broad-based the current dollar rally really is.”

“Meanwhile, MSCI EM has given up its 2015 gains and is now down on the year. It's currently testing the 62% retrenchment objective of the December-February bounce near 941.20, and a break would target the December low near 906.25.”






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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY finds support at 128.30; low since August 2013



FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Euro continues depressed on Wednesday and after falling 135 pips from 129.70 against the Japanese Yen, the EUR/JPY found support at 128.30, the lowest level since August 2013.

The EUR/JPY has posted 7 negative days in the last 8 session, losing more than 600 pips from March 3 highs of 134.45 to today's lows.

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 128.66, down -0.71% on the day, having posted a daily high at 129.99 and low at 128.34. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

Euro to Yen exchange rate levels

If the pair falls below 128.30, it will find next supports at 128.00 and 127.10. To the upside, resistances are at 129.15, 129.70 and 130.00.







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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session Recap: USD extends gains, EUR in 12-y lows



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD rally remains intact on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index trading in levels last seen in September 2003 beyond the 99.00 mark. Market expectations for a sooner than estimated rates hike by the Fed continue to bolster the USD upside, sending EUR/USD to test fresh 12-year lows in the area of 1.0560.

In his speech in Frankfurt today, President Mario Draghi stressed that the current monetary policy is bolstering the ‘green shots’ in the region, adding that the ‘quantitative easing’ programme should support a rebound in inflation expectations; consumer process, in the meantime, could extend their trend lower – even into negative ground – just to revert direction towards year end.

The sterling continues to find decent support around 1.5000 vs. the dollar, practically ignoring January’s less auspicious releases from Industrial and Manufacturing Production, coming in below consensus.

USD/JPY managed to recover the 121.00 handle and beyond after briefly dropping to the 120.80 area overnight, and seems it is consolidating around 121.30/40 after recent fresh peaks just above 122.00 the figure.

Greece continues to be in the headlines today, although the attention suddenly shifted away from debt talks after the Greek government said its ready to seize German assets as compensation for Nazi war crimes.





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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY is higher, but vulnerable to a round of risk aversion – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, expects USD/JPY to trade higher over time but near-term vulnerability might be seen in the pair as risk aversion falls.

Key Quotes

“After trading to fresh 7.5 year highs during Tuesday’s session, USDJPY is entering the NA session close to these levels.”

“Fundamental data included vaguely better than expected machine orders and PPI; however the core driver of USDJPY has been the USD side of the equation.”

“We expect USDJPY to trend higher over time, but see it less vulnerable than others in the near‐term as rising risk aversion will begin to suppress USDJPY upside risk.”





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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Soft data raising concerns about China’s growth story – Danske



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Flemming J. Nielsen, reviews the recent Chinese data releases to conclude that the soft data is indicative of – downward risk to GDP forecast of 7.0%, further cut in interest rates and RRR, and rise in speculation that PBoC might allow CNY to depreciate.

Key Quotes

“For January and February as a whole, growth in fixed asset investment eased to 13.9% y/y (consensus: 15.0% YTD, y/y) compared to January and February last year after increasing 15.0% YTD, y/y in December.”

“Retail sales for January and February as a whole eased to 10.7% y/y (consensus: 11.6% y/y) compared with the same period last year after increasing 10.9% y/y in December last year.”

“On the surface, today’s data suggest that there could already be downside risk to the 7% growth target for 2015 the Chinese government announced last week. We will probably have to cut our 7.2% GDP growth forecast for 2015. That said, we would be more confident in a downward revision if the weakness evident in the hard industrial production data is also confirmed in the manufacturing PMIs in the coming months.”

“With downside risk to the government’s growth target, it also appears that there will be more monetary and fiscal easing in China than we have assumed so far. The reserve requirement could be cut by more than 100bp and another interest rate cut looks increasingly likely.”

“The weak data could also increase speculation that China will allow its currency to depreciate, although we still expect the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to keep the current daily trading band broadly unchanged.”






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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bunds to remain bid – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With European yields falling due to Draghi’s bond purchases, Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities, assesses that Bunds might remain bid, further maintaining the Q2 0.30% forecast for 10y bunds.

Key Quotes

“In previous cases of QE in the UK and US, we have seen yields start to rise soon after purchases began, partly as a result of inflation expectations reflating.”

“However, we think that this is unlikely to happen at least over the next quarter in the bund market, given that it is investors who have to reduce their bund holdings rather than the central bank merely buying the increased size of the bond market.”

“We reiterate our 0.30% 10y bund forecast for end Q2.”

“We think that the net negative supply will be enough to stop bunds selling off with other global bond markets.”






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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bunds to remain bid – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With European yields falling due to Draghi’s bond purchases, Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities, assesses that Bunds might remain bid, further maintaining the Q2 0.30% forecast for 10y bunds.

Key Quotes

“In previous cases of QE in the UK and US, we have seen yields start to rise soon after purchases began, partly as a result of inflation expectations reflating.”

“However, we think that this is unlikely to happen at least over the next quarter in the bund market, given that it is investors who have to reduce their bund holdings rather than the central bank merely buying the increased size of the bond market.”

“We reiterate our 0.30% 10y bund forecast for end Q2.”

“We think that the net negative supply will be enough to stop bunds selling off with other global bond markets.”






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Mar 11,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Next weeks FOMC to be USD positive - Westpac



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Franulovich of Westpac, remain bullish for USD, expecting growth differential and the expected drop of patience in next weeks FOMC meeting to boost dollars strength.

Key Quotes

Global forces continue to conspire in the USDs favour, the latest vignettes in recent days playing to the USDs advantage including weaker China activity data, a strong US Feb payrolls, a plunge in German 10yr yields to an eye watering 20bp and renewed weakness in commodity prices (though that may be as much a reflection of USD gains).

A look back at USD price action going into past Fed tightening cycles suggests USD consistently gains further ground into the first hike but thereafter consolidation is the order of the day.

We stick with a bullish outlook as policy and growth differentials between the US on the one side and China, Japan and the Eurozone on the other side continue to break in the USDs favour.

Next weeks FOMC meeting likely to play USD positive with the Fed likely to drop patience from their lexicon and June Fed lift off odds likely to firm further.







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Mar 12,2015
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