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China cuts interest rates – Danske



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Flemming J. Nielsen of Danske Bank, notes that China cutting its interest rate by 25bps is positive for risky assets, particularly emerging markets and commodities.

Key Quotes

“The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) today cut its leading interest rates. The one-year benchmark deposit rate was cut by 25bp to 2.75% and the one-year benchmark lending rate was cut by 40bp to 5.6%. As the lending rates have largely been liberalised, the oneyear depot rate is now the most important of the two benchmark interest rates.”

“The interest rate cut is extremely positive for risk sentiment and risky assets in general in financial markets and it is particularly positive for emerging markets and commodities. Hence, it should help commodity and Emerging Market currencies like the Norwegian krone, the Australian dollar, Canada dollar, Brazilian real, Mexican peso and the South African rand.”

“The implication of today’s interest rate cut is that the Chinese growth manufacturing PMIs and growth have probably bottomed out and should start to improve in Q1 when investment demand and particularly the property market will start to rebound.”

“The growth outlook is definitely more positive for H1 15. However, we do not expect to see a sharp rebound in growth next year as the government will still be focused on managing financial risk and securing sustainable credit growth.”

“Hence, the PBoC will continue to ease only cautiously and we do not expect it to cut rates further. In addition, China remains in a structural slowdown, which will continue to weigh on growth further ahead.”




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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) above expectations (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.3%)



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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Both rates and oil currently pushing CAD – BAML



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that their view for a higher USD/CAD has continued to play out in their favour, with our short-term target at 1.14 for the end of this year.

Key Quotes:

“While much of the Canadian dollar's drop has logically been the result of the decline in oil prices, rate differentials have also arguably played a key role”.

“Our Chart of the Day looks at the daily drivers around USD/CAD since 2013, as explained either by oil or oil in conjunction with rates”.

“While the value of USD/CAD explained by oil has been rising, rate differentials have also played a crucial role in explaining the weakness in Canadian dollar, as they have with many risky currencies”.

“Still, we would argue that the decline in CAD may stall out going forward”.
“USD/CAD is fairly close to levels that it previously approached earlier this year, when WTI was closer to US$100/barrel”.

“In our view, a reversion in oil prices, as well as a relatively robust US growth picture that should ultimately benefit the Canadian economy, will help support the CAD next year”.

“Of course, in the short-term, the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 27 presents substantial event risk for oil, and thus potentially impact USD-CAD”.

“Moreover, deflationary risks that push the Fed into delaying rate hikes could well wind up moving the CAD higher, as the Bank of Canada currently remains locked in its current rate”.

“In the medium-term, however, we still focus on both oil and a solid US outlook, which we do believe will move the Canadian dollar modestly higher, in contrast to many of our USD forecasts”.



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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bitcoin back at USD 350



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The virtual currency extended slide today after closing at a one-week low in the previous session as the prices continue to correct after a sharp rally which saw the virtual currency rising to USD 454.60 levels.

Bitcoin traded 1.31% lower at USD 351.34 at the time of writing, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 355.37. Elsewhere, the BTC/EUR pair is trading 0.94% lower at 283.59 levels. Meanwhile, CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, which calculates the average price of Bitcoin across globe, is down 0.97% at USD 352.67 levels.

Litecoin or LTC/USD has also weakened 1.325 today to trade at USD 3.52 levels.

Bitcoin Technical Levels

Bitcoin has an immediate resistance located at 355.37, above which gains could be extended to 370. Meanwhile, support is seen at 338 and 318 levels.



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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD finding support after dumping a cent



FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is trading at 1.1229, down -0.67% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1328 and low at 1.1190.

The USD/CAD has dumped over a cent, while analysts at TD Securities explained that the pair may start to find support in the low 1.12 area after this morning’s slide below congestion (now resistance) in the mid/upper 1.12 area. “Short-term trend momentum is picking up bearishly, so the market is likely to remain biased to the downside in the short
run at least”.

As with the general beat of the rum, the dollar is being questioned and scrutinized in respect of whether it can sustain a rally in a disinflationary environment around the globe and how slower growth might impact the US economy and the Feds interest rate policy going forward. “A quick move back above 1.1270 would be a positive for the USD but that looks a big ask at this point”, explained the analysts at TD Securities.

USD/CAD noteworthy levels

Current price is 1.1230, with resistance ahead at 1.1241 (Daily Classic S2), 1.1274 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.1283 (Hourly 20 EMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.1226 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.1193 (Daily Classic S3) 1.1176 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.1166 (Monthly Low).



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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bitcoin back at USD 350



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The virtual currency extended slide today after closing at a one-week low in the previous session as the prices continue to correct after a sharp rally which saw the virtual currency rising to USD 454.60 levels.

Bitcoin traded 1.31% lower at USD 351.34 at the time of writing, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 355.37. Elsewhere, the BTC/EUR pair is trading 0.94% lower at 283.59 levels. Meanwhile, CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, which calculates the average price of Bitcoin across globe, is down 0.97% at USD 352.67 levels.

Litecoin or LTC/USD has also weakened 1.325 today to trade at USD 3.52 levels.

Bitcoin Technical Levels

Bitcoin has an immediate resistance located at 355.37, above which gains could be extended to 370. Meanwhile, support is seen at 338 and 318 levels.



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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session: The market left shell-shocked on Draghi



FXStreet (Guatemala) - The US session was scrambling around in a panic on the back of Europes action with Draghi taking the spot light delivering a speech that left markets with a strong indication that we will see further easing which sent the Euro to finish up a shave away from the November lows and over 1.2% down on the US shift and close to 200 pips lower on the week.

GBP/USD took a back seat in the consolidation corner having been bolstered on the UK's domestic data from and strong retail sales surprises in the week in London but the pair finishes up now back into neutral territory down 0.25% on the session with lows at 1.5626.

USD/CAD was scrambling back lost ground towards the end of the NA session and back in for the mid 1.1200s on the back of CPI for the Canadian economy and rising WTI prices. CPI year on year came in for October at 2.4% vs 2.1% expected and 2.0% previous.

EUR/JPY was a big moved and made a huge correction from the 148 handle and through the Nov low at 146.39 on the back of Draghis comments.

AUD/USD found a base on 0.8860 after a steep drift lower post its European markets highs through the 0.87 handle when China cut 1 their year lending rates by 0.4 and the 1 year deposit rates by 0.25 to 2.75% to help bolster the economy.

USD/JPY remained a non-contender and only managed a sideways drift in the US session having given all that it could give from the lows on the 117 handle in Europe. Previous to that, the Yen had strengthened when Japan's finance minister gave the markets his concerns about the rapid depreciation of the currency in Asia trade. Aso said "the pace of the decline in the past week has been too fast". The pair finishes up at 117.80 into the close.




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Nov 22, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

All eyes on the OPEC meeting at Vienna - DB



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the Thursdays OPEC meeting at Vienna will be a closely watched affair with speculations going around that there will be a 1m a day cut in barrels produced.

Key Quotes

There has been no shortage of news-flow around the event recently with prices declining sharply over the last couple months in anticipation that OPEC will not cut production.

In recent weeks it appears that the camp has become split with the likes of Saudi Arabia and other low-cost producers with large FX reserves happy to run down the price to gain market share.

On the other hand the likes of Venezuela and more recently Iran are reported (Bloomberg) as saying that they may propose a 1m a day cut in barrels produced. They are campaigning for higher prices to balance their budget and improve fiscal positions.

We will no doubt hear further statements this week from producers in the run up to the meeting so its something to keep an eye on.





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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

PBoC fires its first salvo in FX wars – Rabobank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Research Team note PBoC entering the FX war fiasco by surprising the markets with a rate cut.

Key Quotes

“Only few weeks after the BoJ shocked the markets with a huge dose of fresh monetary policy stimulus, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut its base 1-year lending rate by 40bps to 5.6% with the 1-year deposit rate trimmed by 25bps to 2.75%. “

“The PBoC also increased flexibility in the banking sector allowing banks to offer deposit rates at up to 20% above the benchmark from the previous cap of 10%. “

“While the central bank insisted that its first interest rate cut since 2012 (following somewhat insufficient targeted easing measures) is “a neutral operation and doesn’t mean any change in monetary policy direction”, it seems that China fired its first salvo in the currency war with the BoJ.”






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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Whats the sentiment around EUR/USD today? Commerzbank and OCBC Bank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is hovering over the 1.2400 handle at the beginning of the week, posting almost no reaction after the positive IFO figures from the German economy.

Key resistance above the 1.2600/14 area is regarded as 1.2740/70, the 23.6% retracement of the entire move lower seen in 2014 and the lows for 2013 and late October high, observed Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.

In addition, Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, commented, With the EZ curve bull flattening further on Friday, expect implicit downside pressure on the EUR-USD to persist On the CFTC front, net leveraged EUR shorts increased further in the latest week and note that these numbers also pre-dated Draghis latest comments and the pair may continue to test towards 1.2350 if 1.2400 is not reclaimed.




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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Crude steadies ahead of OPEC meet, speculators trim bullish bets


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Oil prices at both the sides of the Atlantic trade steady as markets brace-up for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet scheduled this Thursday. Meanwhile, speculators trimmed bullish bets as OPEC members stand, divided over the necessity of reducing the output in order to stabilize the prices.

Brent Crude for January delivery traded 0.37% higher at USD 80.66/barrel, while the WTI Crude for January delivery traded 0.40% higher at USD 76.82/barrel at the time of writing. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data revealed money-managers reduced bullish bets on Crude as OPEC group failed to signal it will act in order to halt the slide in the prices. Money managers reduced net-long positions in WTI Crude Oil by 4.1% in the week ended 18 November. Long positions fell to an 18-month low, while the open interest fell to the lowest level in more than 2 years.

As per CFTC, net longs for WTI fell by 7,439 to 175,051 futures and options combined. Long positions fell 1.3% to 248,217, the lowest since 14 May 2013. Short positions increased 6.1% to 73,166.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

Brent has an immediate resistance at 80.85, above which prices can rise to 81.61 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 79.95 and 79.07 levels.



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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR undermined by dovish speech from ECB President Draghi – BTMU


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that euro remained at weaker levels in the Asian trading session after falling sharply on Friday following a dovish speech from ECB President Draghi before the European Banking Conference.

Key Quotes

"In his speech, President Draghi described in context the significant shift that has taken place in ECB monetary policy since last September and how their new instrument of asset purchases operates."

"The inflation environment was described as “increasingly challenging” highlighting that he is particularly concerned that a too prolonged period of inflation becomes embedded in inflation expectations. Indicators of inflation expectation over the shorter horizon were described as “excessively low” although long-term indictors were on the whole described as still consistent with price stability”."

"He reiterated that “if on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough to achieve this, or further risks to the inflation outlook materialise, we could step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases”."

"The market has interpreted the comments as signalling that there is higher likelihood of the ECB implementing sovereign debt QE although there was no specific reference to it in the speech". As a result the yields on 10-year Italian and Spanish governments both declined by around 10 basis points on Friday, and EUR/USD fell sharply from around 1.2550 to just below the 1.2400-level."

“Overall, the speech was consistent with our view that the ECB will likely continue to ease monetary policy which will remain a weight on the euro in the year ahead. However, the short-term euro sell off following the speech could prove to be somewhat of an overreaction."





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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Ftse trades near 2-month high


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s Ftse index traded flat near a two-month high today as further gains in the index were capped by a bout of profit taking in the mining shares.

The Ftse traded largely unchanged at 6751.00 levels at the time of writing. The index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 57:42. Shares in the insurer Friends life gained 5.12%, while shares in Aviava fell 3.9% on a possible deal to buy rival Friends life for GBP 5.6 billion. Aviva shares tanked as analysts say the deal is relatively more beneficial for the Friends life shareholders.

Meanwhile, Petrofac shares tanked 23.39%, its biggest single day drop ever, after the company lowered its net profit forecast in 2015 to around USD 500 million, which is the lower end of its previous guidance range of USD 580 million to USD 600 million.

The index gains were mainly capped by the losses in mining index, which is down 1.3%, tracking a fall in the major commodity prices. Shares in major miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo American fell 1.7% to 2.1%.

Ftse Technical Levels

The index has an immediate resistance located at 6782, above which gains could be extended to 6800.00 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 6740 and 6714 levels.






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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Singer: ECB easing should have a positive effect on the Czech economy


FXStreet (London) - - Speaking in Vienna, Czech Central Bank governor Miroslav Singer defended the decision to maintain the CZK27 cap, despite the cost of maintaining the level.

Singer stated that the reason for leaving the koruna cap in place until 2016 is to fight the deflation threat from the Eurozone. He added that deflation risk is not yet behind the the Czech economy and that the central bank is pushing towards its 2 percent target.

The Czech central bank governor added that he supports ECB monetary easing, saying that it should have a positive effect on the Czech economy. A weaker euro should benefit countries such as Germany and Austria – major trading partners to the Czech Republic.






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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY remains capped by 118.40


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY resumed the advance Monday after last week’s corrective move was contained by the 117.35 zone.

USD/JPY regained the 118.00 level and climbed to a high of 118.37, stalling roughly at the same level it did the previous trading day. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 118.20, recording a 0.37% gain on the day.

The yen strengthened last week and dragged USD/JPY away from a 7-year peak of 118.97 after Japan’s finance minister expressed his concerns about rapid depreciation of the currency.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As for technical levels, next resistances line up at 118.37 (Nov 21 & 24 highs), 118.97 (2014 high Nov 20) and 119.00 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 117.57 (daily low), 117.35 (Nov 21 low) and 117.00 (psychological level).





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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Speculators reduced their USD longs – Rabobank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Research team highlights the IMM net speculators positioning as at 18th November 2014.

Key Quotes

“Speculators reduced their USD longs a little further last week meaning that net positions are now noticeably off their recent highs. Even so, they are still twice as large as the long positions held in July. “

“EUR shorts increased again. Although they are still below their recent highs, shorts could be promoted further in the next set of data by the dovish tone of ECB President Draghi last Friday. “
“JPY net shorts rose again, though they remains below their October highs. “

“On the back of the dovish November Inflation Report from the BoE, speculators have built up short positions in sterling even further. However, the minutes of the November MPC meeting were a little less dovish than expected and this could weaken the resolve of the GBP bears a little. “

“AUD shorts consolidated at fairly elevated levels, though some support for the AUD could be drawn from Friday’s PBoC rate cut. CAD shorts lessened a touch with the tone remaining consolidative.”

“CHF net shorts held largely steady despite the proximity of the November 30 referendum on SNB gold holdings which could undermine the EUR/CHF ‘floor’.”






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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Nikkei posts modest gains


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Japanese stocks rose in the late afternoon session to end the day moderately higher even though the decline in the Yen paused.

The Nikkei finished the day 56.65 points or 0.33% higher at 17,357.51 levels. The stocks initially came under pressure as investors booked profits as the decline in the Yen appeared to have paused. However, in the late session, the stock reversed trend to end the day higher. Moreover, expectations are high that stocks would continue to rise due to the exchange traded fund buying by the Bank of Japan.

The index was supported by gains in paper producers, mining, and oil and coal producing sectors. Among stocks, Airline Skymark shot up 25.64% on reports of a business alliance with rival JAL. Meanwhile, mobile game developer Marvelous surged 23.74% on the news that the company will launch a smart phone game in December. On the minus side were wholesalers and textile makers, who were pressured by profit-taking.

Nikkei Technical Levels

The index has an immediate resistance at 17,472 levels, above which prices may re-test 17,520 levels. On the flip side, a break below the immediate support at 17,095.50, shall open doors for 16,895.50 on the downside.





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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Optimism likely to prevail on Wall Street today


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The action in the US Index futures indicates the Wall street is likely to start the week on a positive note as the markets remain optimistic after China’s rate cut and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) stimulus talk.

At the time of writing, the DJIA December futures traded up by 0.26%, while the S&P500 December futures gained 0.29%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ futures traded 0.35% higher. Earlier today, most of the Asian stock markets closed higher, while the European equities also extended Friday’s gains.

Investors will watch out for the Markit’s service sector Purchasing Manager Index for November and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. The consensus estimate calls for an increase in the Service PMI to 57.8 from 57.3 in October. Meanwhile, the Treasury is set to announce the result of its auction of 2-year notes.




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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Another interest rate cut from the Bank of Korea on the way? – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst Omkar Godbole, views that post the PBoC rate cut, pressure may build on Bank of Korea to cut rates again.

Key Quotes

“With weak growth prospects along with CPI inflation at 1.2% in October, Korea risks importing deflation if the Yuan weakens along with the Yen. The Bank of Korea has a three‐year 2.5 to 3.5% inflation target band, but annual inflation has stayed in the 1% range since January 2013.”

“The PBoC’s rate cut last week has certainly increased pressure on the central banks in Asia to act.”

“However, Bank of Korea is likely to wait and watch the movement in the JPY/KRW and CNY/KRW pair. So far, both pairs are trading steady.”

“The JPY/KRW is already trading at July 2008 levels. Technically, if the pair fails to rise above 10.00 levels, the Won could extend gains to 9.00 and 8.60 levels.”

“The CNY/KRW pair is stuck around 181.50‐182.00 levels, after rising more than 10% since the beginning of Jan 2014.”

“So far, the CNY/KRW exchange rate has not resulted in sudden and sharp appreciation of Won against the Yuan, despite China announcing a rate cut on Friday.”

“A further rise in the USD/JPY pair along with a rise in the USD/CNY shall make another interest rate cut from the Bank of Korea inevitable.”



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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/MXN drops to lows near 1.1361


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is now picking up pace vs. the US dollar, dragging USD/MXN to challenge session lows in the 13.600 area.

USD/MXN weaker post-data

The pair lost upside momentum after the jobless rate in the Aztec economy fell to 4.78% during October vs. 5.08% previous, and the 1st half-month inflation ticked higher to 0.74% in November from 0.5%. Spot thus continues to consolidate around the key 13.6000 handle, coming down from 2014 peaks near 13.6800.

USD/MXN key levels

The pair is now losing 0.02% at 13.6118 with the next support at 13.5975 (low Nov.21) ahead of 13.5820 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakout of 13.6690 (high Nov.21) would expose 13.6795 (2014 high Nov.4).



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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 4.71% in October from previous 4.75%


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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Weidmann says that ECB should not see QE as a silver bullet


FXStreet (London) - European Central Bank council member Jen Weidman put a stick in the spokes of ECB sovereign debt buying aspirations.

Speaking in Madrid, the Bunesbank president said that there were “high legal hurdles” to full blown ECB quantitative easing. Weidmann said that “there seems to be a conception that there is one silver bullet out there which is buying sovereign debt.” However he said that the focus should instead be on generating economic growth in the Eurozone area.



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Nov 24, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Aussie dollar hits four-year lows on RBA deputy governor comments


FXStreet (London) - The Australian dollar has fallen after Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Philip Lowe suggested that the RBA could be more active in its targeting of the exchange rate

In an address to the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, Lowe said that one of the challenges that lies ahead is to create the environment that encourages the investment in human capital that is ultimately required to sustain the high living standards and high returns to savers that we should be aspiring to.

Lowe added that it is important to recognise that the exchange rate, wages and the return to saving each also play a key role in how the economy is performing at any point in time.

-In terms of the exchange rate, the RBA has been saying for a while now that a lower value of the Australian dollar would be helpful from an overall macroeconomic perspective.

- If the exchange rate is to play its important stabilising role, it needs to go down when the terms of trade and investment are declining, just as it went up when the terms of trade and investment were rising. To date, as we expected, we have seen some adjustment, but if our assessment of the fundamentals is correct we would expect to see more in time.

- In terms of wages, there is sometimes commentary bemoaning their high level in Australia. There are, no doubt, certain areas where wages are very high and working conditions are highly favourable and some adjustment is likely to be required. But it is also useful to recall that over the past two decades or so, aggregate wage outcomes have been consistent with the inflation target and with a trend decline in the unemployment rate.

- While we need to pay close attention to overall labour costs, these observations point to the conclusion that concerns about the overall level of wages in Australia are, to some extent, really concerns about the exchange rate, with the high exchange rate leading to high wages expressed in foreign currency terms. A lower exchange rate would obviously make a difference to these comparisons.

AUD/USD falls to July 2010 lows

The comments by the RBA deputy governor helped push AUD/USD to a four-year low, The pair is currently trading at USD0.8541, down 0.89 percent on the session after hitting lows at 0.8523.

AUD 2-year interest rate swaps are currently pricing at 2.7950 percent, down 0.18 percent after earlier highs at 2.8015.



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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) came in at 1.3%, above expectations (1.2%) in 3Q


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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY gains momentum after US GDP


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY rose from 118.05 to 118.28, reaching the highest price since the Asian session, after the release of better-than-expected economic data in the US.

According to the new estimate, the US economy grew at a rate of 3.9% during the third quarter, that is higher than the previous estimate of 3.5% and above the expected 3.3%. Greenback gained momentum across the board after the report.

USD/JPY away from the lows

Before the economic numbers, the pair was hovering around 118.00, slightly lower for the day, still moving with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, making higher lows and higher highs for the third trading day in a row but holding below last Thursday peak, when it climbed to 118.97 (7-year high).

Currently trades at 118.20, approaching daily highs and moving away from the lows, supported by US GDP data, ahead of Wall Street opening.




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Nov 25, 2014
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