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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP retreats from 1-month high after BoE minutes


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pulled back from fresh 1-month high after the release of BoE meeting minutes, which showed the MPC remained split over the need for an immediate rise in interest rates, with 2 member voting to hike rates.

Overall, minutes were less dovish than expected, giving pound some support. The BoE said there was a risk that any remaining slack might soon be exhausted, causing inflationary pressures to build.

EUR/GBP retreated to a fresh daily low of 0.8005 from a 1-month high of 0.8037 pre-minutes. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8007, a few pips below its opening price.

EUR/GBP levels to watch

As for technical levels, 0.8002 (Nov 14 high) and 0.7954 (Nov 18 & 17 lows) are EUR/GBP support levels, while 0.8037 (Nov 19 high) and 0.8053 (200-day SMA) are immediate resistances.


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.2550


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD moved off daily highs and gave up ground, weighed by cross action and a strong drop in Eurozone construction output.

Eurozone construction declined 1.8% in September from August, and a 1.7% from a year earlier. EUR/USD backed away from daily highs but it continues to clinch above 1.2500 ahead of FOMC minutes to be published at 19:00 GMT. The shared currency hit an hourly low of 1.2523 in recent dealings, and it is currently trading at 1.2538, virtually unchanged on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.2576 (Nov 17 high), 1.2600 (psychological level) and 1.2616 (Oct 31 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.2511 (Nov 19 low), 1.2467 (10-day SMA) and 1.2442 (Nov 18 low).


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD higher, eyes on 1.5690


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling keeps pushing higher on Wednesday, now lifting GBP/USD to the boundaries of 1.5690.

GBP/USD bounces off ytd lows

After hitting multi-month lows in the 1.5590 neighbourhood, the pair sharply rebounded to the current area of 2-day highs near 1.5680 following the hawkish statement from the BoE minutes. Recall that the Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged and some members argued that risks point to an exhaustion of the slack, giving way to inflationary pressures. The market is now betting the hiking cycle in the UK could start in the last months of next year vs. more optimistic expectations from months back around Q4 2014/Q1 2015.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.34% at 1.5684 with the next resistance 1.5737 (high Nov.17) followed by 1.5751 (10-d MA) and finally 1.5769 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5564 (low Sep.6 2013) would aim for 1.5556 (low Sep.4 2013).


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bank of Japan board probably still divided despite 8-1 vote – Danske


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team expects BoJ to be on hold in 2015 as they view the presence of considerable disagreements on the BoJ board.

Key Quotes

“First, we think there is still considerable disagreement on the BoJ board and it will be difficult to get a majority for additional easing.”

“Second, the government’s postponement of the consumption tax hike has also reduced BoJ’s manoeuvring room. With no fiscal headwinds and the support from a substantial weaker yen, the outlook for growth in 2016 is quite strong.”

“Hence, it looks like BoJ will have to start tapering at some stage in 2016. It should be remembered that even without additional easing BoJ's balance sheet will be expanded aggressively in 2015.”

“We continue to see a weaker yen in 2015 on the back of a monetary policy that remains very accommodative, even without additional easing.”


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD moves off 14-month lows – TradeTheNews



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TradeTheNews Team notes that the GBP/USD pair moved off the 14-month lows after the release of less dovish than expected Bank of England (BOE) Minutes.

Key Quotes

“The pair moved from 1.5590 to test above 1.5650 as a result. There had been some speculation on markets that either Ian McCafferty or Martin Weale would climb down from voting for an immediate rise in rates.”

“EUR/USD remained in a corrective form following the stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence yesterday and dealers suspected this would continue for the time being.”

“EUR/CHF currency cross continues to creep lower, the focus is now on any upcoming polls which help markets to put probabilities on a 'Yes' or 'No' vote”


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Little movement in EUR/USD as markets eye us housing numbers – MP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at MarketPulse notes EUR/USD showing little activity today as it trades in the mid 1.25 range.

Key Quotes

“After some volatility during the week, EUR/USD is showing little activity on Wednesday. In the US, we’ll get a look at important housing data, with the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts. The markets are expecting a slight improvement from both indicators.”

“ECB head Mario Draghi and his colleagues are under strong pressure to “do something” to kick-start the weak Eurozone economy. Deep interest rate cuts haven’t had much effect, so the ECB has purchased covered bonds and asset-backed securities.”

“So far, these securities have been from the private sector, and the ECB could decide to expand these purchases to government bonds, known has quantitative easing. However, there is resistance to quantitative easing from national central banks, such as the powerful Bundesbank.”

“If the ECB does move forward with quantitative easing, we could see the wobbly euro lose more ground.”

“EUR/USD tested support at 1.2518 in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade. 1.2518 is a weak support line. 1.2407 is stronger."

“1.2688 is a strong resistance line.”


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD may test 1.2670 levels ahead of the US CPI data – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst Omkar Godbole sees the EUR/USD pair looking at a probable technical correction towards 1.27 levels as the single currency manages to sustain above 1.24 levels since last week.

Key Quotes

“The pair closed 1.2517 resistance yesterday, opening doors for a further upside in the pair.”

“The move was supported by positive Price-RSI divergence on the daily chart.”

“A similar positive divergence is also seen on the weekly chart, although the weekly RSI is yet to rise above 30.00 levels.”

“Hence, the pair is more likely to test the 50 DMA located at 1.2670 ahead of the tomorrow’s US CPI data.”


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.08M above expectations (1.04M) in October


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Will FOMC minutes stray from the beaten path? - MP


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, expects FOMC to make some noise as the market remains overtly bullish on USD.

Key Quotes

“Today, Fed watchers are looking for elaboration on a number of points, especially employment and inflation.”

“The market will be expecting the usual range of opinions to be offered up – global development and inflation concerns.”

“The varying views are likely to be balanced by discussion of removing the “considerable” period language and downplaying oil related softness in headline inflation (the weak energy prices are also helping – think of it as a form or stimulus).”

“The market remains overtly bullish the U.S dollar, but it has sought a strong enough reason to kickstart the dollar’s next leg higher. Will investors get that reason later today?”


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD returns near 1.5700; but not so fast!


FXStreet (San Francisco) - After testing the 1.5700 area and being rejected to 1.5660, the GBP/USD took forces of a good housing data in the US and jumped to test the 1.5700 area again; however, the pair got another hit.

The US building permits rose 4.8% to an annual rate of 1.08M in October; Housing starts decline 2.8% to 1.0M but previous month was largely revised to +7.8%.

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5672, up 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5703 and low at 1.5590. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting overbought hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

GBP/USD sentiment

A hawkish tone from todays BoE minutes catapulted GBP from multi-month lows in the 1.5590/80 band to fresh weekly tops at the 1.5700 handle. However, Credit Suisse looks "for GBPUSD to weaken."

The Swiss bank comments that "market expectations for the first BOE hike have already pushed out into H2 2015. Any further moderation in data momentum and inflation further undermines chances of a hike in 2015."

However, the hourly chart is showing the MA 20-hours crossing the MA 50 line to the upside at 1.5640.

With a successful break above 1.5700, the GBP/USD will find next resistances at 1.5735, high Nov.17, ahead of 1.5745, MA 200-hour. To the downside, supports are at 1.5640, 1.5600, 1.5590 and


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Nov 19, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.8%) in September: Actual (1.8%)


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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 237.43 below forecasts (237.97) in October


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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR soft after the release of disappointing PMIs - Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is weak, down 0.2%, after failing to maintain its post FOMC rally to 1.2600 as the currency came under additional pressure on the release of disappointing Eurozone PMIs, with the flash composite dropping to a 16‐month low of 51.4, disappointing expectations.

Key Quotes

“The details suggest that the pace of economic growth in Europe has slowed further, with the manufacturing PMI at just 50.4 and services at 51.3; France was particularly weak, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 47.6; while Germany’s dropped to 50”

“Since the announcement of ECB asset purchases on October 2nd, the balance sheet has fallen from €2.05trn to €2.03trn, highlighting the impact of loan repayments to the ECB and the hurdle the ECB faces in expanding its balance sheet."

“EURUSD short‐term technicals are mixed — several technical studies are warning of building upside pressure; while others have not shifted from bearish territory.”

“The lack of clarity from technicals warns of a period of range trading. Support comes in at Tuesday’s open of 1.2450; while resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.2600.”

“A break above 1.2600 would open up at test to the 50‐day MA at 1.2663.”



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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US continuing jobless claims hit year 2000 lows


FXStreet (London) - In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291k, a decrease of 2k from the previous week's revised level, according to the US Department of Labor The previous week's level was revised up by 3k from 290k to 293k. The 4-week moving average was 287k, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average.

The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 285k to 285.75k.

The DoL reported there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending November 8, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 8 was 2,330,000, a decrease of 73k from the previous week's revised level.



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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Treasury yields recover after CPI data


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short-end and the long-end of the US treasury market curve recovered losses after the CPI data in the US printed higher than the market expectation. Month-on-month the CPI index came-in higher than the market expectation.

The Two-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations, recovered to 0.521% from the pre-data low of 0.504%. The Ten-year yield recovered to 2.34%, from the pre-data low of 2.313%. Meanwhile, yields at the short –end posted sharp recovery. The yields were pushed higher as the CI in October came-in at 1.7% year-on-year, compared to the market expectation of 1.6%. Month-on-month, the inflation came-in at 0.0%, against the expectation of a 0.1% decline. Meanwhile, core inflation number printed in-line with the expectations.

The higher-than-expected inflation data came-in a day after the Federal Reserve minutes revealed that the policymakers were concerned about falling inflation expectations. Thus, the data released today is likely to reinforce the expectations that the Fed is on track to raise interest rates next year.

In the meantime, the initial jobless claims for the last week printed at 291K, compared to the market expectation of 284K. The previous week’s figure was revised upwards to 293K. The rise in the jobless claims may cap gains in the treasury yields.




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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD tests 1.5675 after US inflation


FXStreet (San Francisco) - The pound extended its rejection of the 1.5700 area against the US Dollar following a better than expected US CPI data; however, the pair bounced off at 1.5675 where it found buying interest that sent it back to daily highs.

The US CPI rose to 1.7% YoY in October, above 1.6% expected; The Ex food and energy inflation rose to 1.8% YoY, above the 1.6% awaited. Jobless claims was up to 291K, well above 285K expected; and even worst, the previous week was revised 3K up to 293K.

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5689, up 0.10% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5710 and low at 1.5632. GBP/USD spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD was lifted by a good UK retail sales data that fueled the pair to recover from 14-month lows to a intraday high of 1.5705.

GBP/USD levels

Above 1.5700, the GBP/USD will find next resistances at 1.5710, 1.5725 and 1.5735. To the downside, supports are at 1.5675, 1.5655 and 1.5630.



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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US October inflation fails to fall from 1.7%, despite weaker crude prices – ING


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING notes that US inflation failed to fall in October, despite sizeable declines in crude oil and US retail gasoline prices.

Key Quotes

“Headline inflation remains 1.7% (0.0%mom) How come? As we suggested in our preview of this figure, the seasonal adjustment used on gasoline at this time of year is particularly severe, and as a result, published CPI energy prices are down only 1.9%mom, with regular unleaded gasoline down only 3.2% apparently, not the 10% or more that we know that pump prices have fallen in the real world.”

“It not be until after the New Year before lower crude prices and lower gasoline prices begin to have a much more marked effect on US inflation. And at current levels of crude oil prices, we would not be surprised to see US inflation falling to about 1.0%YoY in April / May 2015.”



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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US index futures decline on global growth concerns


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The activity in the US index futures indicates that stock markets in the US are likely to open on a weak note after a series of manufacturing data from China to Europe highlighted a slowdown in the activity.

The DJIA futures are trading 83 points lower at 17,573 levels, while the S&P 500 futures are down 10.10 points to trade at 2036.95 levels and the NASDAQ futures have shed 18.55 points to trade at 4205.20 levels.

A higher-than-expected US CPI inflation data along with the rise in the weekly jobless claims did little to support the index futures. The US CPI inflation failed to decline from 1.74% despite the weakness in the crude prices, while the initial jobless claims for the last week came-in at 291K, compared to the forecast of 284K. Meanwhile, Markit flash estimate of US PMI manufacturing is also due for release later today along with the existing home sales data for October.

Earlier today, the Asian markets ended on a weak note, as the soft Chinese manufacturing data curbed the ‘risk-on’ buying in the equities. In Europe, the stock markets declined after the flash PMI survey showed private activity in the Eurozone fell to a 16-month low in November. Elsewhere, the UK retail sales were reported at 0.8% in October, up from a 0.4% decline in September.




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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD consolidating between 1.2500 and 1.2570 – FXStreet

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Matias Salord, Analyst at FXStreet sees the EUR/USD pair moving trendless in a consolidation manner, but holding a bearish tone after the Eurozone and US economic data release.

Key Quotes

“The EUR/USD is moving in a consolidating mode, without a clear trend for the day, but holding a bearish tone after Eurozone and US economic data, but as long as it holds above 1.2500, declines would be limited; a break below could trigger a bearish rally, targeting initially 1.2475 and below here 1.2450.”

“To the upside the euro has been unable to break above 1.2570; it needs a consolidation above to gain strength and break the current trading range.”

“Technical indicators in the 1-hour and 4-hours charts show indicators mixed. The 4-hour chart is at an important support level, that could favor a rebound, but below 1.2500 the scenario could change.”



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Nov 20, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

PBoC cuts interest rates, raises deposit-rate ceiling



The Peoples Bank of China has announced a cut in interest rates effective 22 November. The central bank has cut the 1-year lending rate to 5.6 percent with the 1-year deposit rate cut to 2.75 percent.

The PBoC also raised the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.2 times the benchmark.




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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Dovish Draghi turns EUR/USD technicals lower – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ani Salama, Analyst at FXStreet, notes that EUR/USD fell sharply on Friday, turning short-term outlook into negative after Draghi said the bank will do what it must to raise inflation back to its target of 2%.

Key Quotes

“Technically speaking, EUR/USD short-term perspective has turned bearish, with indicators pointing down below their midlines.”

“However, with the RSI in oversold levels in 1-hour charts, the euro might enjoy a consolidation phase ahead of another leg lower.”

“Next support stands at 1.2400, and a break below would signal the end of the correction and resume the broader bearish trend, with 2014 low at 1.2357, as immediate target.”

“On the other hand, EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.2560 area (38.2% Fibo of 1.2882-1.2357) to ease the bearish pressure.”




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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD finds oxygen at 1.2420



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sharp sell off in the EUR/USD seems to have found some support in the 1.2420 vicinity on Friday.

EUR/USD in multi-day lows

Spot keeps suffering the effects of the dovish appreciations by ECB’s Draghi earlier on in his speech in Frankfurt, falling to the area of 1.2425/20 where it presumably found some support. The pair is thus eroding its weekly gains, trading back to levels last seen on Friday 14th November. Without any data releases left in Euroland and an empty docket in the US economy, the demand for the euro would likely remain subdued at current levels. According to Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank “several technical studies are warning of building upside pressure; while others have not shifted from bearish territory. The lack of clarity from technicals warns of a period of range trading”.

EUR/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is losing 0.87% at 1.2436 with the next support at 1.2400 (psychological handle) ahead of 1.2398 (low Nov.4) and finally 1.2394 (low Nov.11). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2602 (high Nov.19) would aim for 1.2614 (low Oct.23) and then 1.2617 (high Oct.31).




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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Limited offshore yuan response to first PBoC rate cut in 2 years



FXStreet (London) - After the People’s Bank of China announced this morning that it would be cutting interest rates for the first time in two years, the response of offshore yuan trading was relatively benign, swinging to an initial CNH6.1230 on the announcement from the PBoC before whipsawing back up to highs at CNH1.12.99. The offshore yuan is now trading at CNH1.1273, up 0.02 percent on the morning session.

The central bank has cut the 1-year lending rate to 5.6 percent with the 1-year deposit rate cut to 2.75 percent. The PBoC also raised the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.2 times the benchmark. The changes will be effective 22 November.

The move is a shift from the PBoC’s focus on targeted monetary easing and liquidity injections. The announcement comes against a backdrop of a steadily deteriorating outlook for Chinese growth.





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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD lifted by PBoC move



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Australian dollar and other currencies linked to commodities, strengthened and reached fresh daily highs versus the greenback, on the back of China's central bank decision to cut interest rates to lift a slowing economy.

The PBoC has cut the benchmark 1-year lending rate by 40bps to 5.60%, and the 1-year deposit rate by 25bps to 2.75%, and it also raised the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.2 times the benchmark.

AUD welcomed China easing measures and rose more than a full cent after the news. AUD/USD reached a 3-day peak of 0.8722 before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, teh pair is trading at 0.9686, recording a 0.85% gain on Friday.





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Nov 21, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD needs Draghi’s help to rise – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, the markets failed to get a strong push in spite of better than expected US data released yesterday, but today’s Draghi’s remark did for EUR/USD what US data couldn’t.

Key Quotes

“The markets could not decide what to do with the USD yesterday; better than expected CPI data and a great—not just good—Philly Fed survey should have been good news for the big dollar—and it was, briefly before the markets knocked it back again. Even the contrast with the disappointing EZ data earlier in the session could not help EURUSD extend lower.”

“Overnight, EURUSD was hit hard by dovish comments from ECB President Draghi; his remark that the ECB will do what it has to raise inflation and inflation expectations “as fast as possible” may boost expectations of more ECB easing sooner rather than later.”

“Recall that the ECB moves to a 6-week meeting schedule a la Fed in 2015 so that puts the first meeting of the New Year in late January; that “gap” and Draghi’s sense of urgency may serve to boost thoughts of more action being unveiled at the December policy meeting.”

“US yields remain resolutely range-bound, meanwhile, and are providing no directional help for the markets that seems to be slipping into holiday mode.”

“There’s not much on tap in terms of US data today so flows and technicals will dominate. A retest of the early November low around 1.2360 looks likely near-term.”




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Nov 21, 2014
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