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EUR/USD uninspired by Eurozone CPI



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD received a slight boost and reached marginal new highs for the day after preliminary data showed Eurozone consumer inflation grew in line with expectations in August.


Eurozone consumer price index rose 0.3% YoY in August, meeting expectations, while the core index grew 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% forecasted by analysts.


Today's release was attracting much attention ahead of ECB meeting next week, after Draghi signaled further easing measures at Jackson Hole. However, in-line-with expectations data doesn't really shed too much light on ECB's next move and will probably keep the euro under pressure heading into the decision.


The EUR/USD climbed a few pips and hit a high of 1.3194 right after the release, extending a recovery from a low of 1.3159 scored at the beginning of the European session. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3185, virtually unchanged on the day.


EUR/USD technical levels


As for technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.3152 (2014 low Aug 27), 1.3104 (Sep 6 2013 low) and 1.3100 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.3238 (Aug 22 closing price) and the 1.3295/1.3300 area (Aug 22 high/psychological level).







Aug 29, 2014

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EUR/JPY rises briefly above 137.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY spiked to fresh daily highs above 137.00 after the release of in line with expectations Eurozone inflation data.


Eurozone consumer price index rose 0.3% YoY in August, meeting expectations, while the core index grew 0.9% versus an increase of 0.8% forecasted by analysts.


The EUR/JPY rose briefly above the 137 mark and stretched to a high of 137.07 right after the data, only to dip back to the 137.85 area soon after. The pair is currently trading at 136.90, 0.35% above its opening price.


From a broader perspective, the EUR/JPY has moving with a bearish bias since peaking at 143.79 in early March.








Aug 29, 2014

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Economic growth in Euroland hurt by Russia - BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) -Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, underlines the problems for the euro zone economy stemming from the geopolitical situation in Russia-Ukraine.


Key Quotes


"National inflation data yesterday revealed an unchanged annual CPI rate of 0.8% and hence there’s a chance that the euro-zone flash estimate today also comes in unchanged at 0.4%. Some of the other country data declined however (Spain and Italy expected to today) and hence we might still get a modest decline to 0.3%."


"To be honest though, the grim macro story and the comments from Draghi make this less important. With more sanctions also now on the way for Russia, the economic hit to the euro-zone is only going to get worse."


"The latest evidence of that was the German retail sales report this morning. In contrast to the expected unchanged estimate, retail sales plunged 1.4% and clearly consumers as well as businesses in Germany are hurting."


"GfK Consumer Confidence data on Wednesday from Germany revealed the largest drop in economic expectations since the 1980s. So the gravity of situation has gone a bit beyond whether we get a 0.3% or 0.4% print in the flash CPI estimate today."








Aug 29, 2014

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EMU: CPI (Aug.) at 0.3% YoY



Consumer Prices in the euro area rose 0.3% YoY, matching previous estimates and down from July’s 0.4%. Core prices advanced 0.9% over the last twelve months, exceeding the 0.8% forecasted.








Aug 29, 2014

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USD/JPY toying with 104.00



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback seems to have resumed its upside on Friday, now lifting the USD/JPY to the very doorsteps of the critical barrier at 104.00.


USD/JPY looks to regain weekly tops


The pair is trading on a firmer footing and prolonging the bounce off the 103.70 area. The overall weaker tone from the Japanese docket in today’s early hours weighed on the yen, adding to the upside sentiment in the pair. Next of relevance will be the US inflation figures tracked by the PCE along with Private Income/Spending and the final reading of the Reuters/Michigan index for the month of August. Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, commented, “the JPY may continue to garner support pending geopolitical developments into the weekend. As such, the pair may continue to loiter at sub-104 levels in the interim with a fairly solid cushion expected towards 103.00”.


USD/JPY levels to consider


At the moment the pair is up 0.23% at 103.96 and a surpass of 104.16 (high Aug.27) would open the door to 104.49 (high Aug.25) and finally 104.84 (high Jan.23). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 103.66 (low Aug.29) followed by 103.56 (low Aug.28) and then 103.51 (Tenkan Sen).









Aug 29, 2014

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GBP/USD back below 1.6600



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD trades effectively unchanged on the day following another failed attempt to break above the 1.6610 resistance area.


The latest string of US data had little impact on the USD, confining the Cable to extend its consolidation phase below 1.6600. US personal income and spending came slightly below expectations at 0.2% and -0.1% respectively in July, while core PCE was unchanged at 1.5% y/y.


Ahead of the long weekend in the US, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6585 area, flat on the day, but still on track for a mild weekly gain following 7 weeks of losses.


GBP/USD technical levels


As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find immediate supports at 1.6535 (Aug 27 low), 1.6509 (Mar 26 low) and 1.6500 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.6612 (Aug 28 high), 1.6670 (Aug 20 high) and 1.6685 (200-day SMA).









Aug 29, 2014

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EUR/USD apathetic post-US data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency practically stayed put in the wake of today’s US docket, with the EUR/USD keeps hovering over the 1.3180/85 area.


EUR/USD limited by 1.3200


Spot remains confined to the upper 1.3100s despite data releases in the US came in on a softer tone overall. In fact, both Personal Spending and Personal Income disappointed expectations in July, contracting 0.1% and gaining 0.2%, respectively. Consumer prices measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – the Fed’s favourite gauge – remained unchanged at 1.6% on a year to July, while Core PCE rose 1.5% vs. 1.6% previous. All in all, the EUR is closing another dreadful week, trading in levels last seen in early September 2013 ahead of the key ECB meeting due next week.


EUR/USD levels to watch


The pair is now flat at 1.3180 with the next resistance at 1.3222 (high Aug.28) ahead of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) and then 1.3316 (210-d MA). On the downside, a breach of 1.3152 (low Aug.27) would target 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) en route to 1.3089 (low Jul.19 2013).









Aug 29, 2014

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US: PCE (Jul) rose 1.6% YoY



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that the US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.6% YoY during July, matching the previous print. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. The Core reading, which strips the food and energy costs, rose 1.5% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. Personal Income expanded 0.2% on a monthly basis while Personal Spending contracted 0.1%.









Aug 29, 2014

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Wall Street closed: S&P 500, best August performance since 2000



FXStreet (Guatemala) - In the US, stocks picked up on best monthly gains since the start of the year as investors were encouraged by improving developments in the US economy.


Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on the last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month.


The S&P 500 Index scored 3.8 percent this month, the best August performance since 2000. For today, it put 0.3 percent of gains and read 2,003.37 as of 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 18.88 points to read 17,098.45 and the The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.5 percent to read 4,580.27.










Aug 30, 2014

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Chinese economy still in expansionary camp – Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, assessed the recent release in the Chinese economy.


Key Quotes


“China’s official manufacturing PMI released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in August declined to 51.1 (consensus: 51.2, DBM: 51.2) from 51.7 in July broadly in line with expectations. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI released in its final version this morning declined to 50.2 (revised down from 50.3) from 51.7 in July. For both manufacturing PMIs this is the lowest level since May”.


“The details in the NBS manufacturing PMI were relatively weak. New orders declined to 53.2 from 54.2, while export orders declined slightly to 50.0 from 50.8 in July”.


“The finished goods inventory component in the NBS manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 48.1 from 47.6 and hence the new order-inventory-balance deteriorated slightly in August. However, in both manufacturing PMIs the deterioration in the new order-inventory-balance has been modest and the level remains relatively healthy”.


“Today’s NBS manufacturing PMI confirms that the Chinese economy again has lost some momentum and the manufacturing PMI appears to have peaked unless monetary policy and fiscal policy are eased substantially soon”.


“In our view there are three possible explanations for the recent weakness: 1) continued weakness in the property market, 2) the impact from fiscal stimulus has started to wane with infrastructure spending showing signs of slowing in July and 3) the accelerated corruption campaign in recent months could have started to weigh on investment demand”.


“The manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to decline slightly in the coming months. If the manufacturing PMIs move below 50 in the coming months, an interest rate cut can no longer be ruled out, even though the Chinese government has been reluctant to use monetary stimulus and has preferred fiscal stimulus instead”.










Sep 01, 2014

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EMU: Manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 50.7



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The manufacturing gauge of the PMI for the euro area remains in expansionary territory during August, despite coming down to 50.7 vs. 50.8 forecasted and July’s 51.8. The German measure followed suit, down to 51.4 from 52.4.









Sep 01, 2014

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Gold consolidates below $1,290



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold spot started the week on a quiet note after printing a weekly gain and a slight monthly advance in August, although the rise stalled around $1,290 during the European trade.


XAU/USD rose around $5.00 an ounce and reached a daily high just above $1,290 but pulled back afterwards and it is currently trading around $1,288 slightly above its opening price.


Soft economic data around the globe and ongoing geopolitical tensions have kept the metal on demand, although moves have been timid as investors are taking a more cautious stance. Today liquidity will probably remain low as US markets are closed due to the Labor Day holiday.









Sep 01, 2014

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What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is meandering around a narrow range at the beginning of the week, keeping the trade near 1-year lows.


“EUR/USD has stabilised but the downtrend remains firmly intact. We expect EUR/USD to range trade and possibly bounce around the ECB meeting but any bounce should be short-lived. We target EUR/USD to reach 1.30 in 1M and 1.27 in 3M”, observed Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.


Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, commented, “Resistance comes in along the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.3177and the 1.3222 August 28 high as well as at 1.3333/36. Further resistance can be seen along the three month downtrend line at 1.3376. While trading below here, downside pressure should be maintained”.








Sep 01, 2014

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AUD/USD drifting to 0.9340



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now coming down from intraday peaks near 0.9350, taking the AUD/USD to the 0.9340/35 band.


AUD/USD capped by 0.9370


The RBA will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, although market consensus expects the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged at 2.5% and repeat the neutral tone from last meetings. According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, “we think the market preference for carry may remain in force with leveraged net AUD longs in the latest week growing in the latest week. Ahead of the RBA tomorrow, expect the pair to be negatively buoyant within 0.9270-0.9370”.


AUD/USD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is up 0.01% at 0.9340 with the next resistance at 0.9376 (high Aug.6) followed by the psychological level at 0.9400. On the downside, a break below 0.9300 (low Aug.27) would expose 0.9272 (low Aug.26) and then 0.9235 (low Aug.21).









Sep 01, 2014

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EUR rebound not ruled out - Societe Generale



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, contemplates the likelihood of a rebound in the EUR in the near term.


Key Quotes


"The foreign exchange market is doing its absolute best to ignore mounting geo-political tension as the Ukraine crisis deepens. Instead, positioning data (for last Tuesday) point to the two dominant themes - a bearish consensus about the outlook for the Euro and a yield-hungry bias more widely."


"EUR non-commercial short on the CFTC are at their highest level since soon after Mr Draghi's ‘whatever it takes' speech two years ago. Clearly, the market is in danger of disappointment if the ECB meeting on Thursday fails to deliver more than dovish rhetoric and promises of action."


"Yet, the failure to stage any kind of month-end bounce on Friday as the Ukraine crisis deepened, leaves a challenging technical picture. And economic, monetary policy dovergence point to a huge amount of potential EUR/USD downside as this interest rate cycle finally gets going. It's set up to be choppy, and the risk of a Thursday bounce is very high, but irrespective of the consensual nature and the precedent from 2012, we want to be short when the NFP data are released on Friday."









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USD remains bid - Investec



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, observes the firm tone from the greenback.


Key Quotes


"The US Dollar has managed to hold on to recent gains amidst selling pressures at the tail end of last week from month end fixing flows. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia causing unease in the markets combined with better US data have helped the greenback in recent sessions."


"Weaker Chinese PMI Manufacturing overnight only served to keep the US Dollar bid into today's open. The euro, in contrast, has continued to weaken after a dovish speech from ECB President Mario Draghi a week ago at Jackson Hole leaving some investors looking for additional easing this week, although a full blown ABS purchase scheme may not have all the details ironed out in time - we could certainly see the deposit rate lowered further into negative territory which would hurt the euro badly and would almost certainly mean 1.30 in EURUSD becomes a real possibility."









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GBP/USD holds onto gains



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has been one of the main movers in a quiet September kick-off, as investors await key events later this week and with the US out for the Labor Day.


The GBP/USD picked up momentum and managed to break above the 1.6610 resistance area, climbing to a high of 1.6643 before finding resistance. However with the subsequent dip contained by the former resistance area at 1.6610, the Cable was confined to a sideways phase. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6620, up 0.16% on the day.


GBP/USD technical outlook


“The hourly chart presents a technical bullish stance, with indicators heading north above their midlines, and 20 SMA gaining upward slope below current price”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “The 4 hours chart shows also a positive technical tone, yet some steady gains above mentioned 1.6630 level are required to confirm further advances, eyeing then a test of the 1.6670 price zone”.


Bednarik locates next support levels at 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6540, while she sees resistances at 1.6630, 1.6665 and 1.6700.









Sep 01, 2014

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EUR/USD on its way to 1.3100?



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness is now intensifying around the EUR, pushing the EUR/USD to test the lower band of the intraday range near 1.3110.


EUR/USD in multi-month lows


Spot rapidly faded the spike to the area of 1.3140 in early trade, retracing to levels last seen a year ago in the proximity of the psychological support at 1.3100. There are no relevant data releases in the euro region today so traders will concentrate their attention in the US ISM and manufacturing PMI by Markit. Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, commented, “bearish momentum indicators are softening with the RSI having stabilized just below 30.The bearish DMI is also moderating, and we note the formation of two consecutive doji candles highlighting uncertainty”.


EUR/USD relevant levels


The pair is now losing 0.09% at 1.3115 with the next resistance at 1.3196 (high Aug.29) ahead of 1.32222 (high Aug.28) and then 1.3297 (high Aug.22). On the downside, a break below 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) would expose 1.3089 (low Ju.19 2013) and finally 1.3051 (low Jul.16 2013).









Sep 02, 2014

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