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SNB creates shockwaves - Rabobank




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that after more than 3 years, the SNB this week abruptly stopped trying to protect the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor.

Key Quotes:

"The SNB claimed that the overvaluation of the CHF has decreased in the past three years. In contrast, we would argue that protecting the EUR/CHF1.20 floor became too difficult in the face of renewed demand for the CHF as a safe haven asset in addition to the continued weakness of the EUR."

"The news, which was accompanied by a decision to push interest rates further into negative territory, came just one week ahead of an anticipated pledge by the ECB to launch quantitative easing which could further pressure the EUR."

"The SNB’s decision has had far reaching implications, one of which is to accelerate the broad-based downtrend in the EUR. As a consequence we have lowered our forecasts for many EUR crosses."






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USD/CHF attempts to stabilize above 0.8500




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Swiss franc resumed the rise versus the dollar during the American session after a brief correction following yesterday outstanding rally triggered by the SNB.

USD/CHF reached a high of 0.8800 during the European trade but failed to sustain that level and retreated toward the 0.8450 zone in recent dealings. The pair has spent the day zigzagging in a wide range, without a clear direction as investors overcome yesterday’s SNB shock.

At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at the 0.8500 zone, 16% below yesterday’s highs scored above 1.0200 before the SNB decided to remove the EUR/CHF floor.

The unprecedented turmoil unleashed by the Swiss National Bank crushed Swiss stocks, with the nation’s index losing 13% over the last two sessions, and yields on the 10-year government bonds falling below zero for the first time ever.







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When I started with OctaFX for the first time I was recommend by many to use this analysis and news service but I used to make fun that I don’t need to depend on anyone I am good enough and I will manage it myself but only later I found out that with my own trading skills I will only destroy all the investments.

Since that day I got my brain back and started trading following this regularly and I am very happy with the results since my account which was on the verge of losing everything got healthy and now this is the same account that I make 200 – 300$ profits consistently without even risk factor adding too much.

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Brent trades below USD 50/barrel




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent Crude prices fell below USD 50/barrel today after Iraq announced record oil production, thereby increasing concerns of supply glut.

The march futures traded 1.64% lower at USD 49.35/barrel at the time of writing, compared to the previous sessions close at USD 50.17/barrel. Prices fell from the session high of USD 50.34 on concerns of increased supply from Iraq. Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi said on Sunday Iraq pumped 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in December, its highest ever.

Meanwhile, Brent was also hit by expectations of a weak Q4 GDP print in China, due for release tomorrow. The country is expected to report GDP at 7.2% year-on-year, its weakest since the 2008 crisis.

Brent Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen on the hourly charts at 49.27, under which losses could be extended to 48.73 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 50.02 and 50.34 levels.






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Jan 19,2015
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EUR/CHF looks to the ECB – Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Lars Christensen argued that the following next steps by the European Central Bank could prove to be crucial for the cross.

Key Quotes

“The SNB’s surprise removal of the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor has brought volatility back to global FX markets and this is likely to persist for a while, as CHF markets learn about the SNB’s new reaction function”.

“The CHF will now be subject to much less predictable SNB policy moves and we cannot rule out that the SNB will have to do more (rate cuts and/or intervention) to match an upcoming ECB QE move”.

“Indeed, the SNB will have a hard time justifying continued CHF strength, as deflation remains an entrenched issue for the Swiss economy”.

“We stress, however, that the ECB policy will be crucial for EUR/CHF in the near term”.





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Jan 19,2015
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Stronger Dukascopy Bank looks for acquisitions - FXStreet.com mistake



FXStreet (London) - After having passed through the effects of the Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision on Thursday 15 to cease defending the CHF1.200 level and the ensuing high volatility and low liquidity conditions, Dukascopy Bank has reported a 100 percent increase in account applications and looks to acquire brokers in trouble.

FXStreet announcement dated 16 January 2015 according to which Dukascopy Bank would have suffered USD 40 million losses was mistaken. Our news has been corrected here and we apologize for the confusion.

Below is the public announcement of Dukascopy Bank dated 16 January 2015:
Dukascopy Bank

CHF dramatic shift

Dukascopy Group announced that it has safely passed through the CHF dramatic price shift. It was achieved thanks to advanced execution technology, careful risk management policy and reduced leverage on EURCHF till level of 1:10.
The scenario of such shock had been anticipated four months in advance as shown in Dukascopynews published on 3rd of October 2014: "Due to the possibility of a break of the 1.2000 floor in EUR/CHF which may see significant price gaps and cause negative equity on client accounts, Dukascopy Bank is forced to implement a maximum leverage for EURCHF exposures of 1:10 as of 12 October 2014".

Dukascopy well known ECN business model and careful risk management approach proved once again to be reliable and trustworthy.





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BoJ could revise lower the CPI – BTMU



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at BTMU, expects the inflation figures in the Japanese economy to be revised lower by the BoJ in its next meeting.

Key Quotes

“The January monetary policy meeting is one in which we get an update on the semiannual GDP and inflation forecasts from the BOJ”.

“At the meeting on 31st October, the BOJ had a core CPI forecast of 1.7% for FY2015 and 2.1% for FY2016”.

“Given that oil prices have dropped by 40% since that date, it is highly likely that CPI will now be around 0.5ppt lower than what the BOJ had thought”.

“Indeed, assuming the crude oil price remains as it is and given the sales tax increase will drop out of annual CPI readings from April, the chances are reasonably high that core CPI could fall close toward zero percent over the summer months”.

“That will put increasing pressure on the BOJ to do more. This week’s meeting may see (as we stated last week) two lending programs being extended beyond the current deadline of March”.

“At this stage and given what’s happening in terms of the outlook for CPI, an extension of these programs would not be a surprise”.





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Alpari appoints administrators



FXStreet (London) - Richard Heis, Samantha Bewick and Mark Firmin of KPMG LLP were today appointed special administrators to Alpari (UK) Ltd.

Alpari (UK) Ltd applied for insolvency on today following the decision on Thursday by the Swiss National Bank cease to defend the CHF1.200 level against the euro. In a statement issued on Friday, Alpari said that the move “resulted in exceptional volatility and extreme lack of liquidity.

This has resulted in the majority of clients sustaining losses which has exceeded their account equity. Where a client cannot cover this loss, it is passed on to us.”
After a weekend spent in urgent discussions with various parties with a view to selling the company, these efforts were ultimately unsuccessful.

Commenting on the appointment, Richard Heis, partner at KPMG and joint special administrator, said: "Following the announcement by the SNB last week, Alpari (UK) Ltd sustained substantial losses as a result of negative client balances, and was faced with no other choice but to enter into special administration. We have had a number of enquiries from interested parties in relation to the company's business. We will be speaking with these parties and others over the next few days, and hope to secure a deal to preserve the business and jobs as far as possible."

He continued: "The company holds some USD98.5 million of retail client money which has been segregated and we shall be returning this to clients or making other suitable arrangements in accordance with statute and the regulatory framework at the earliest opportunity."





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CHF shorts largest since mid 2013- SG



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale noted that with the US quiet for Martin Luther King Day, a post-SNB, pre-ECB contemplative mood is likely across markets.

Key Quotes:

"CFTC data show us that as of last Tuesday, the speculative end of the FX market was still increasing the size of its euro short while trimming its yen short."

"The US 10-year Treasury short was pared back more aggressively, and for the record, the Swiss franc short position was also increased to its largest size since mid-2013. I'm feeling stupider on that topic by the day."





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Canadian dollar and crosses in technical snapshot - TDS


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at TD Securities gave us a snapshot technical analyses on the Canadian dollar and crosses.

Key Quotes:

"USD/CAD retains a positive technical bias but trend momentum has stalled in the short-term."

"EUR/CAD trades heavier, pressures low end of range."

"AUD/CAD rebound extends into former consolidation range."

"GBP/CAD tracks higher but lacks momentum for a break above key resistance at the moment."

"CAD/JPY tries to pull out of December/January dive."





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EUR/USD could test 1.10 in 12-month view Rabobank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, suggests the value of the European pair could slip to 1.10 in a 12-month horizon.

Key Quotes

By whipping the markets into a frenzy of anticipation ahead of Thursdays policy-meeting, ECB President Draghi has succeeded in squeezing out a huge amount of market impact from the promise of QE and the currency markets are taking the strain.

There is the danger of a sell on the fact reaction which could push the EUR a little higher.

However, Draghi has proved himself in the past to be masterful in directing markets.

The EUR may not be a policy tool of the ECB, but the policy decisions taken since June last year suggest that the central bank is bent on weakening it.

We have revised lower our 12 mth EUR/USD forecast to 1.10.






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Jan 20,2015
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Germany repatriated 120 tonnes of gold in 2014 - Deutsche Bundesbank



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Deutsche Bundesbank said on Monday it had accelerated its bullion repatriation scheme last year, bringing back German gold from Paris and New York.

The German central bank said it “stepped up” its bullion transfers during 2014, bringing 35 tonnes of its gold from Paris and another 85 tonnes from New York. The repatriation scheme is the country’s effort to bring 674 tonnes, or half of Germany’s total stocks, back to Frankfurt by the end of the decade.

“Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," Carl-Ludwig Thiele, member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank said in a statement.





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依旧倾向逢高沽英镑——华侨银行



FXStreet-华侨银行策略师Ng称,依旧倾向逢高沽英镑,下行势能犹存。

尽管欧元/美元反弹有限,但英镑依旧设法走强。

焦点在于明天英央行会议纪要,特别关注通胀描述。

期间,继续建议逢高沽英镑,目标指向1.5035。





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EUR/USD clinging to 1.1600



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency remains in the upper end of today’s range, with EUR/USD hovering over the 1.1600 neighbourhood.

EUR/USD passed the ZEW test

Auspicious results from the ZEW Survey in both Germany and the EMU gave initial support to the EUR, pushing spot to session highs around 1.1610/20. However, the current context of USD strength appears to cap any bullish attempts, relegating the pair to the 1.1600 surroundings. Next of note in the bloc will be the crucial ECB meeting on Thursday, when apparently everything points to an announce by the central bank of a QE programme worth at least €500 billion of sovereign bond purchases.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.16% at 1.1590 and a break below 1.1528 (61.8% of 1.1460-1.1639) would target 1.1460 (11-year low Jan. 16) en route to 1.1445 (low Nov.11 2003) en route to 1.1376 (low Nov.7 2003). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.1649 (high Jan.16) followed by 1.1726 (10-d MA) and finally 1.1792 (high Jan.15).





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AUD/USD back above 0.8200



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar managed to erase intraday losses and climbed back above the 0.8200 level during the European session, to trade nearly flat on the day.

AUD/USD failed to benefit from better-than-expected Chinese economic growth in the final quarter of 2014 as any optimism over China quickly faded after the IMF downgraded its global growth expectations.

AUD/USD weakened and dropped to a low of 0.8159 during the Asian trade but eventually found buyers, took back losses and climbed to a daily high of 0.8217. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8205, virtually unchanged on the day.

ECB upcoming meeting on Thursday is absorbing most of market's attention, keeping investors cautious and sidelined.

AUD/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate resistances for AUD/USD line up at 0.8217 (daily high), 0.8255 (Jan 16 high) and 0.8294 (Jan 15 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8159 (daily low), 0.8132 (Jan 15 low) and 0.8100 (psychological level).





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GBP/JPY hits 1-week highs



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The recovery of the pound after falling sharply during the Asian session and a weak yen amid risk appetite pushed GBP/JPY to the strongest level in a week.

The pair opened the day trading around 177.60 and broke above 178.40, that was an important short term resistance and soared to 179.60, level last seen in January 13. From last week lows the pound has risen almost 400 pips.

GBP/JPY technical outlook

The pair continues to move within a bearish trend on a wider perspective but in the short term is moving with a bullish bias, on a recovery mode. Currently is testing an important resistance around 179.60/65 (Jan 15 high). The key short term support lies around 178.00, where an ascendant trendline originated at January 16 low stands.





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USD/CAD improves towards 1.2000



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is quickly picking up pace on Tuesday, pushing USD/CAD towards the vicinity of the critical 1.2000 barrier.

USD/CAD eyes on US docket

The pair is re-gaining momentum vs. its Canadian counterpart in the first half of the week, looking to retake the 1.2000 handle and beyond. As the USD-strength gathers steam, the next data releases will be Canadian Manufacturing Sales (-0.6% MoM exp. Nov.) followed by the Housing Market index gauged by NAHB (58 exp. Jan), all preceding the more relevant BoC monetary policy meeting due tomorrow.

In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “Intraday charts are neutral but the longer-term charts are bullish and point to a test of 1.22 shortly (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.30/0.94 drop).

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.44% at 1.2000 with the next hurdle at 1.2047 (2015 high Jan.16) followed by 1.2070 (low Apr.24 2009) and then 1.2100 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.1940 (low Jan.20) would aim for 1.1934 (low Jan.19) and finally 1.1922 (Tenkan Sen).





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GBP/USD eases from daily highs



FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD staged a decent comeback from daily lows and recovered more than 100 pips, although it faced resistance at the 100-hour SMA and retreated somewhat.

GBP/USD managed to climb to the 1.5165 zone, posting a daily high during the European session, but lost momentum and pulled back a few pips. At time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.5150, up 0.28% on the day, having bounced from a low of 1.5056.

Cable has had a volatile day despite the absence of economic data, as investors gear up for tomorrow's UK jobs and earnings data and the latest BoE’s meeting minutes.

GBP/USD technical perspective

“Some follow through above 1.5180 should favor more intraday gains towards 1.5220/30 area, whilst if this last gives up, 1.5270 area comes next”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “To the downside, 1.5110 is the immediate support and a break below it once again will likely lead to a retest of 1.5030/50 price zone”.






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GBP/AUD inches closer to 100-DMA



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/AUD pair rose sharply today as the gains in the UK Gilt yields pushed the Pound higher across the board, while the Aussie weakened on concerns of a slowdown in China.

The pair currently trades 0.71% higher at 1.8536, after having recovered from a low of 1.8344 hit earlier today. The AUD/USD pair declined 0.19%, after the Chinese full year 2014 GDP came-in at 7.4%, the slowest in 24 years. Meanwhile, the gains in the UK Gilt yields at the short-end as well as the long-end of the yield curve helped GBP/USD to recovery early losses to trade 0.53% higher at 1.5192 levels. Thus, the GBP/AUD pair is now within a touching distance from the 100-DMA located at 1.8552 levels.

GBP/AUD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.8552 (100-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1.8590 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.8527 (hourly 200-SMA) and 1.8489 (hourly 100-SMA) levels.






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AUD/JPY drops to 96.20



FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY weakened after the Bank of Japan meeting and bottomed during the European session at 96.19, reaching a 2-day low. From 96.20 the pair rebounded and currently is trading slightly above 96.50, almost 50 pips below the price it closed yesterday.

Despite moving off session lows, todays trend continues to point to the downside. Earlier the pair broke a short term ascendant trendline removing bullish momentum.

To the downside below daily lows, the next support level could be located at 96.00, 95.60 (January 7) and 95.20. To the upside, resistance might lie at 96.70, 96.95 and 97.35/40 (January 20 high).






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USD/CAD testing lows around 1.2070



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is losing the grip vs. its main competitors on Wednesday, sending USD/CAD to challenge intraday lows registered overnight in the vicinity of 1.2070.

USD/CAD focus on BoC

In the current context of USD-weakness, CAD traders will look for the result from the Wholesale Sales during November (-0.1% exp.) ahead of the key BoC monetary policy meeting and subsequent press conference by Governor S.Poloz. Market participants will scrutinize the BoC statement in light of the ongoing decline in crude oil prices, as well as the growth and inflation prospects in the domestic economy in a scenario of US solid economic recovery.

Strategists at TD Securities commented, “If the BoC does disappoint very dovish expectations, we look for USDCAD to dip briefly but the underlying message of economic softness will help underpin the broader bull trend in funds; look to fade short-term weakness is USDCAD; we expect the market to press on towards 1.22+ near term”.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is losing 0.28% at 1.2071 with the immediate support at 1.1985 (high Jan.19) followed by 1.1959 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1940 (low Jan.20). On the upside, a surpass of 1.2115 (high Jan.20) would clear the way towards 1.2200 (psychological level) and finally 1.2265 (high Apr.28 2009).






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Gold steadies around USD 1300



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have consolidated around USD 1300 levels as we head into the US session with the second tier US housing data due for release.

The yellow metal currently trades 0.67% higher for the day at USD 1302.50/Oz levels, compared to the previous session’s close at USD 1294.20/Oz levels. The metal climbed above USD 1300 mark for the first time since August 2014 as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce a balance sheet expansion program in the form of sovereign QE. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the Greek vote also supports Gold. An additional support came in the form of Bank of England minutes, which showed two dissenters of the ZIRP switching sides in favor of holding interest rates at a record low.

The metal may extend gains if the US stock markets turn risk averse. Moreover, the major index futures are pointing to a weak opening on Wall Street.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1309.06 (100-WMA), above which gains could be extended to 1323.2 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1300.00 and 1292.1 levels.





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USD/JPY unchanged after mixed US data



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/JPY pair continues to trade near the day’s low, largely uninspired by the release of the mixed housing data in the US.

The pair trades at 117.36, largely unchanged after the data release, and down 1.23% for the day. The data released in the US showed housing starts rose 4.4% month-on-month in December, beating the estimate of a 1.2% rise, while the Building Permits fell declined 1.9%, missing the estimate of a 0.8% rise. The mixed housing data failed to trigger any moves in the US 10-yr Treasury yields, which remain unchanged at 1.795%; down 1.2 basis points for the day. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair failed to respond to the data. However, the Yen may extend gains during the US session, if the stock markets in the US turn risk averse.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 116.91, under which losses could be extended to 116.50 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 117.75 and 118.04 levels.




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GBP/USD steady after US housing data



FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continues to consolidate in a range above 1.5100, having barely moved following the release of mixed US housing data.

On the data front, US housing starts rose 4.4% to 1.089 million in December, beating expectations of 1.040 million, but building permits, a sign of future demand, unexpectedly fell 1.9% in December to 1.032 million.

GBP/USD was unaffected by US data and continues to trade near daily lows. Cable fell as low as 1.5075 earlier during the European session after BoE minutes revealed all 9 MPC members voted to keep rates unchanged. Even though GBP/USD managed to recover from lows, it remained capped by the 1.5135 area.

At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.5110 zone, still 0.20% below its opening price.




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EUR quiet, consolidating ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist, at Scotiabank, shares that EUR is quiet and consolidating today as markets keenly await ECB’s meeting tomorrow, with the focus remaining on the recent low near 1.1450 levels.

Key quotes

“EUR is up a modest 0.2% vs the USD, underperforming most of its peers within the context of broad-based USD weakness ahead of the NA session. The absence of data will leave EUR trading on the broader market tone, with an intensified risk of headline-driven movement ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.”

“EURUSD short-term technicals: bearish—all signals are bearish and hint to further downside as we note the confirmation provided by momentum indicators amid recent declines in spot.”

“Focus remains on the recent low just above 1.1450, below which we look to 1.1213 as the next key long term technical level that represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 2000.”





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