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Credit Agricole: New rules to limit US corporate tax inversions boost USD - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that according to Credit Agricole USD's recent strength is partly due to the new US regulations aimed at limiting corporate tax inversions announced on Monday by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

Key quotes

"The inversions law announced this week aims to prevent US companies from relocating abroad to lower their tax liabilities (the US for instance has the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world at 35%, even though after deductions and other loopholes net tax payments are much lower)."

"The announcement this week reflects a departure from that thinking but more important it also has forex market implications."

"The introduction of the law drove in part some of the recent USD strength, especially against European currencies."

"The law does not impact 'completed' deals but it will impact the possible outflow from 'pending' deals, which are close to USD150bln."

"While some firms will complete the deal given the costs to cancel, we think the law will lead to less cross-border M&A outflows over time."

"The result is higher net FDI flows and a more supportive USD backdrop, especially against GBP, SEK and CHF."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD finds support ahead of 1.2700

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and fell to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session after US GDP for the second quarter was upwardly revised (4.6%from 4.2%) as expected.

EUR/USD dropped and hit a low of 1.2710 where buyers helped to contain the slide ahead of the psychological level and its 22-month low of 1.2696 scored Thursday. EUR/USD however, remains vulnerable and on track to post its eleventh weekly loss in a row amid diverging monetary policies outlooks between US and the Eurozone.

EUR/USD technical perspective

“Short term, the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows price extending below its 20 SMA and momentum heading lower into negative territory, albeit RSI bounces from oversold levels”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart the overall technical stance remains clearly bearish, with a break below 1.2700 required to confirm a new downward movement towards 1.2660 price zone”.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 84.6 in September

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index grew to 84.6 in September, from 82.5 recorded the previous month, according to data released by the Reuters/University of Michigan. Analysts expected an increase to 84.7.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD trades below 1.2700 post US consumer confidence

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro broke below the 1.2700 level versus the US Dollar following the US Michigan consumer sentiment as the EUR/USD completed at a 70-pip drop from 1.2755 to lows around 1.2685.

The US Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 84.6 in Sept; as previously informed. Expectations component was revised down to 75.4 from previously informed at 75.6.

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2703, down 0.40% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2762 and low at 1.2689. EUR/USD spot is in oversold territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

EUR/USD sentiment

"The orderliness of this decline is its most remarkable feature. The magnitude is not that unusual, but the lack of bounces is the outstanding characteristic," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat.

Supports are at 1.2660, 1.2630 and 1.2600. On the upside, resistances are at 1.2710, 1.2730 and 1.2760.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Rupee jumps on S&P's revision of India's outlook up to stable - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities comments on the rupee's reaction to S&P' decision to upgrade India's outlook to stable from negative, while keeping the sovereign rating at BBB-.

Key quotes

"The outlook change reflects S&P’s view that 'India's improved political setting heralds a more conducive environment for reforms, providing a boost to growth prospects and the potential for improved fiscal management'.”

"This statement is particularly significant as the sub-potential growth and wide fiscal deficit were previously citied as India’s major weaknesses and possible causes of downgrades."

"The immediate reaction to the announcement was USDINR falling 0.5% to 61.08."

"1m NDF moved in tandem with spot and is currently exchanged at 61.53, so still nearly half a percentage point below the levels prior to the S&P review."

"This supports our view that the improving macroeconomic outlook will continue to bear positive effects on Indian asset pricing."

"EM FX also seemed to recover on this event today."

"At the same time, we are wary that changing expectations on the Fed’s resumption of monetary tightening could trigger further adjustments in the EM space in the coming months. For these reasons, we prefer RV strategies to trade the INR long leg."

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD bulls ducking for cover once again

FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6266, down -0.32% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6335 and low at 1.6259.

GBP/USD has taken a hit into lower levels that are becoming critical in the advent of the recent decline that had the bulls running for cover where lows at 1.6052 made us wonder if we were back towards 1.58/1.60 territory again. We are lower on a number of counts at the end of this week with essentially the greenback outperforming yet again, with indeed Yellen’s statements of late are being backed up. The US GDP was firstly revised up to 4.6% in the Q2 from previously reported of 4.2% but the final number was in line of expectations. That, however, was highest figure since Q4 2010 and the catalyst for a firmer greenback today. PCE was falling in line at 2.3% up on 1.4% previous and the, although missing expectations slightly, it rose to 84.6 in September up from 82.5 on the previous month. A solid ending to the week for a good performing US economy again.

GBP/USD note worthy levels

With spot trading at 1.6267, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.6275, 1.6282 (Daily Classic S1), 1.6290, 1.6309 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 1.6312 (Daily Classic PP). Support below can be found at 1.6259 (Daily Low), 1.6244 (Daily Classic S2), 1.6214 (Daily Classic S3), 1.6126 (Weekly Classic S1) and 1.6105.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD bulls ducking for cover once again

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD climbed to fresh cycle highs as the greenback was supported by in line with expectations US GDP and consumer sentiment data.

USD/CAD extended gains and hit its highest level since March 26 at 1.1153 before easing a tad. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1145, up 0.33% on the day and recording a 1.64% weekly gain.

USD/CAD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, USD/CAD could find immediate resistance at 1.1170 (Mar 26 high) ahead of the psychological level at 1.1200. On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.1091 (Sept 26 low), 1.1052 (Sept 24 low) and 1.0985 (Sept 23 low).

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD downward pressure seeing no end - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.2570 on Tuesday, as Eurozone inflation data showed the risk of deflation in the Eurozone is still alive.

Key quotes

"The pair has reached extreme oversold readings in the hourly chart and bounced some, hovering around the 1.2600 figure early US session, still quite heavy according to technical readings, as per 20 SMA heading lower well above current price, momentum heading strongly south deep in negative territory, and RSI still at 23."

"In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA capped the upside earlier on the day maintaining a strong bearish slope, while indicators head strongly south in negative territory, giving no signs of a possible upward correction."

"Former low at 1.2660 should now attract sellers if reached, while a break below mentioned low should see the pair extending its decline down to 1.2540/50 price zone."

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Sep 30, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD regains 1.2600 and beyond

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency managed to bounce off sub-1.2600 lows during the European morning, now lifting EUR/USD back to the 1.2615/20 band.

EUR/USD recovers after consumer confidence

Spot is now looking to consolidate the rebound above the 1.2600 handle, boosted by the unexpected drop to 86 in the US Consumer Confidence for the month of September. There are no more data releases in the region today, with the next risk event being tomorrow’s Chinese manufacturing PMI gauged by NHS. (51.2 exp.) ahead of the final figures of the manufacturing PMIs and GDP in the bloc. Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, noted, “all studies warn of strong downside momentum and the only warning on the chart is the RSI which has now fallen firmly into oversold territory. However without a supporting warning signal, EUR is likely to continue its downward trend. The next level of support lies at 1.2500”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is retreating 0.44% at 1.2628 and a break below 1.2561 (low Sep.6 2012) would target 1.2502 (76.4% of 1.2042-1.3995) en route to 1.2493 (low Aug.31). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.2664 (low Sep.29) followed by1.2715 (high Sep.29) and finally 1.2761 (high Sep.26).

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Sep 30, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY reaches new yearly high at 109.84- FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out, USD/JPY hit a fresh yearly high on Tuesday before pulling back slightly.

Key quotes

"The 1 hour chart shows price well above 100 and 200 SMAs both maintaining a shy bullish slope, while indicators eased some from overbought territory."

"In the 4 hours chart indicators also turned lower but hold well above their midlines, showing no actual upward strength, neither signs of a retracement."

"The dominant bullish trend prevails regardless mild positive technical readings, and retracements are still seen as buying opportunities now on approaches to the 109.00 price zone."

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Sep 30, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD major long-term support area of 1.2600/1.2660 under pressure - RBS

Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS observes that following the formation of a H&S pattern in

the first half of the year, EUR/USD has seen a significant selloff.

Key quotes

"It has though started to pressure a key long-term support level of 1.2660, which was previously the risk level of the 2012 inverse H&S."

"This is a very important level and it is required to have a weekly close below to consider it broken."

"If so, the next support will be expected at 1.2290 and 1.2050."

"Otherwise, if the level holds on a weekly close basis, and a reversal pattern formed, this area may see a base."

"Hence it is advisable to keep an eye on the reaction from the test of 1.2600-1.2660 area."

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Sep 30, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD oscillates above 0.8700

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD has resumed the advance and climbed back to the upper side of today’s range at the beginning of the New York session after after a complete pullback of Chinese PMI inspired gains.

AUD/USD retraced its Asian session gains but the setback was contained by 0.8700 and turned back positive, however, it lacked momentum to break free of its daily range. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8745, recording a 0.33% above its opening price.

AUD/USD is rising for first time in four days but remains on track to post a 6.2% loss in September, its worst decline since May of 2013.

AUD/USD technical perspective

“Overall, the pressure remains to the downside, yet a break below 0.8680 is required to confirm a new leg lower”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. Bednarik locates immediate supports at 0.8710, 0.8680 and 0.8635, while resistances are seen at 0.8750, 0.8800 and 0.8840.

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Sep 30, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR bounce not ruled out, but trend remains bearish – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the scenario for the euro remains negative, albeit occasional rebounds should not be ruled out.

Key Quotes

“In the global FX markets, the EUR declined yesterday on the back of a much lower than expected reading for euro-zone core inflation, which fell to 0.7% y/y in September”.

“The decline in core inflation suggests that declining wage increases are adding to the downside pressure on inflation”.

“This is just yet another issue putting pressure on the ECB to do more. EUR/USD ended the day half a figure lower around 1.2630 and according to our short-term financial models, the cross remains in oversold territory, trading 1.1 standard deviation below our model’s fair value estimate of 1.275”.

“However, while the decline in EUR/USD admittedly has materialised much faster than we expected and both valuation and positioning (see IMM Positioning from 29 September) look stretched increasing the likelihood of a rebound, we still expect EUR/USD to continue to trade lower in the coming months”.

“In the near term, we expect a solid US labour market report on Friday to add further support to the USD, while the ECB is expected to keep the door open for QE in connection with its monetary meeting on Thursday”.

“We expect that speculations of additional ECB easing (QE) will remain a theme in market in the coming months – this will weigh further on the EUR”.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Disappointing EMU PMIs push EUR/USD below 1.2600 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the lower than expected Eurozone PMI Manufacturing numbers for September weighed on the EUR/USD which dropped below the 1.2600 level.

Key quotes

"More pressure on the ECB indeed for tomorrow, let’s see if Draghi decides to keep on backing up his words with action."

"In the meantime, the EUR/USD posted a daily low so far of 1.2584, trading now back around the 1.2600 figure."

"The technical picture continues to be clearly bearish according to the 4 hours chart, as indicators managed to correct all of their oversold conditions reached on Tuesday, while price failed to extend beyond the 1.6230 price zone."

"The same chart shows price below a strongly bearish 20 SMA and indicators below their midlines, with both momentum and RSI heading south."

"A daily descendant tend coming from 1.2880 price zone stands around 1.2650, a few pips below mentioned 20 SMA, and recoveries up to that level should be seen as selling opportunities."

"Renewed selling pressure on the other hand, pushing the pair below yesterday’s low of 1.2570, should see the pair extending its decline down to 1.2530 area first, and down to 1.2500/10 as the lowest for the day."

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD holds above year low

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Australian dollar is staging a minor recovery after underperforming during the Asian session and hitting a fresh 8-month low weighed by disappointing Australian data.

AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.8663, just 4 pips away from the year low and climbed back above the 0.87 mark during the European trade. 0.8659 was the January three-and-a-half year low.

However, the subsequent bounce has been capped by the 0.8730 zone, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8715, still 0.34% below its opening price.

AUD/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.8750 (intraday high), 0.8766 (Sept 30 high) and 0.8800 (psychological level). On the other hand, if AUD falls below 0.8659, next supports could be found at 0.8632 (Jul 19 2010 low) and 0.8600 (psychological level).

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

SEB: Selling EUR/USD into fading rallies remains a main theme - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that the SEB sees trend-following tools pointing to a continued drop in EUR/USD, suggesting selling into fading rallies.

Key quotes

"Conditions are severely stretched and buyers' response (lower shadow within an otherwise bearish candle) at a descending parallel is possibly worth some attention."

"A weekly mid-body point and 8day 'Tenkan-Sen' provided resistance in the mid-1.27s should buyers show initiatives over 1.2664."

"Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2570 & 1.2695."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF rallies on intervention rumors

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/CHF spiked to fresh weekly highs during the European session amid rumors of intervention by the Swiss National Bank.

Market chatter the SNB is unofficially buying at 1.2050 has lifted EUR/CHF to 1.2089 from a low of 1.2052. At time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2075, 0.12% above its opening price.

The SNB placed a floor for EUR/CHF at 1.2000 back in September 2011 aimed to prevent further appreciation of the franc as the Eurozone economic crisis intensified.

Meanwhile, USD/CHF advanced to a daily high of 0.9592, stalling a few pips ahead of yesterday’s highs and the 0.9600 level.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD back below 1.2600

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD failed to recover past the 1.2630 area and came under renewed pressure during the European session as investors await a series of US data, including the ADP employment report and the ISM PMI.

A string of mixed manufacturing PMI from the Eurozone failed to help the euro and put EUR/USD back on the defensive. The pair has fallen to a daily low of 1.2584 and keeps the 1.2570/60 support area in sight ahead of US data releases. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2590, recording a 0.32% loss on the day.

However, the cautious tone may prevail ahead of tomorrow European Central Bank decision and Friday's US nonfarm payrolls.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate supports at 1.2560 (Sep 6 2012 low), 1.2500 (psychological level/Sept 5 2012 low) and 1.2493 (Aug 31 2012 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.2630 (intraday high), 1.2663 (Sept 29 low) and 1.2700/01 (psychological level/Sep 30 high).

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD recovery capped at 0.8725

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie is trading down again versus the US Dollar after a brief bounce from yearly lows around 0.8660 and a rejection at 0.8725. However, the AUD/USD is currently performing an early jump following ADP data.

The ADP added 213K new payrolls in September; above expectations and highest since June. US created 629K new private ADP jobs in the Q2. USD reaction hasn't been too big as traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8705, down 0.46% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8751 and low at 0.8663.

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. If the pair extends recovery, it will face next resistances at 0.8725, 0.8750 and 0.8765. On the downside, supports are at 0.8685 and 0.8660.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Demand for the JPY remains subdued – OCBC Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, expects the Japanese currency to keep trading on the defensive vs. the greenback.

Key Quotes

“USD-JPY may continue to knock on the door at 110.00 with a fair degree of containment on the risk aversion front and ahead of the US labor market numbers on Friday”.

“The Tankan numbers came in mixed to mildly supportive (big firms expect to increase CAPEX by a more than expected 8.6% in the current FY) but this failed to grant any traction to the yen”.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD wanders around 1.2600

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to trade erratically around the 1.2600 level, unable to set a short-term direction as investors remain sidelined ahead of the European Central Bank decision Thursday and the US nonfarm payrolls Friday.

With latest recovery attempt capped by 1.2630, EUR/USD has traded within a narrow range, currently at the 1.2605 area, just a few pips below its opening price, ahead of the US ISM manufacturing PMI. Consensus points to a 58.5 reading in September versus 59.0 the previous month.

EUR/USD technical perspective

“In the 4 hours chart the bearish tone prevails, albeit RSI aims higher above 30, supporting current upward correction: critical resistance stands around 1.2650, a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.2880 region, and 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States ISM Prices Paid registered at 59.5 above expectations (57) in September

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Oct 01, 2014

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United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (0.5%) in August

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: ISM Manufacturing PMI drops to 56.6 in September

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August, the Institute for Supply Management informed on Wednesday. Analysts expected less decrease to 58.5.

ISM Prices Paid rose to 59.5 from 58.0 and against forecasts of sliding to 57.0.

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Oct 01, 2014

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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change below forecasts (0.6M) in September 26: Actual (-1.363M)

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Oct 01, 2014

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