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EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.2850

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is keeping the narrow range in the boundaries of the 1.2850 area on Wednesday, leaving behind the mixed results from the German IFO.

EUR/USD down from 1.2900

The correction lower from yesterday’s tops around 1.2900 the figure seems to have found decent support in the 1.2840 neighbourhood today, although the IFO results for the month of September could limit intraday gains. “The target indicated at 1.2880 yesterday was exceeded with a high of 1.2900. While the subsequent drop is expected to extend lower for today, any down-move is not expected to move below the recent low near 1.2816. On the upside, 1.2900 is acting as a very strong resistance now”.

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now up just 0.01% at 1.2849 with the next resistance at 1.2901 (high Sep.23) ahead of 1.2929 (high Sep.19) and then 1.2931 (high Sep.18). On the downside, a break below 1.2843 (low Sep.23) would open the door to 1.2816 (low Sep.22) and finally 1.2800 (psychological level).

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD could slip towards 0.8820/00 – OCBC Ban

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the likeliness of the AUD to decline to the 0.8822/00 area vs. the greenback.

Key Quotes

“With investors still preoccupied with China/global growth concerns, the pair may remain under the weather in the current USD/risk appetite environment and the next visible support is expected towards 0.8820 and then 0.8800 if 0.8900 is not re-taken.

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD remains around 1.6400 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP has been steady, trading between Fibonacci levels recently, due to a lack of market-moving UK economic data.

Key quotes

"The GBP/USD however, remains around 1.6400, a few pips below the 61.8% retracement of this month fall, at 1.6415, level that tested already several times this week."

"The 4 hours chart shows an ascendant trend line coming from 1.6051 containing the downside today around 1.6350."

"Indicators in the same time frame tuned lower still in positive territory, while price develops above its 20 SMA that anyway presents a bearish slope, showing there’s not enough upward strength in the pair at the time being."

"A strong acceleration above 1.6415 is required then to confirm a bullish move, eyeing 1.6460 in the short term, while dips down to 1.6350 will likely be seen as buying opportunities."

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY attempting a consolidation phase? – UOB

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Market Strategist Que Ser Leang at UOB Group, sees the possibility of the pair to commence a consolidation pattern.

Key Quotes

“While we anticipated the short-term USD weakness, the down-move exceeded our 108.45/50 target with a low of 108.26”.

“The subsequent rebound is likely part of a consolidation phase and not the start of the next bullish up-leg. Expect sideway trading today, likely between 108.30 and 109.00”.

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD flat-lining below 1.1100

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback keeps the trade within a very narrow range vs. the Canadian dollar in the equator of the week, relegating the USD/CAD to the 1.1060-80 range.

USD/CAD eyes on 1.1100

The pair is extending the weekly recovery from Monday lows around 1.0930 to current levels in the 1.1070/80 band, although the 1.1100 barrier still remains elusive for USD bulls. Ahead in the day, US New Home Sales (430K exp. in August) and some Fedspeak could spark some volatility in the pair. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “On the charts, a close above 1.1060 yesterday constitutes a positive signal and opens a retest on the low 1.11s, but we believe funds will move to the tune of the broader USD trends on the day, which suggest the pair will trade the 1.1030/1.1100 range”.

USD/CAD key levels

At the moment the pair is flat at 1.1078 with the next hurdle at 1.1084 (high Sep.23) ahead of 1.1100 (high Sep.15) and finally 1.1106 (high Mar.27). On the downside, a break below 1.0994 (Tenkan Sen) would open the door to 1.0986 (low Sep.23) and then 1.0955 (Kijun Sen).

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY remains in range while tries to go beyond 108.80

FXStreet (San Francisco) - With a few exceptions, the USD/JPY has been trading in a 108.50/109.00 range since September 17 and today's trading the pair tested the lower side at 108.50 but it was contained and now it is attempting to recover prices above 108.75.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.75, down 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.93 and low at 108.46. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is strongly bullish.

USD/JPY sentiment

Earlier in the day, the USD/JPY was trading down amid recent Abe’s comments on impact of weak yen for the regional economies. However the range contained the pair. According to Matt Bacon-Hall, the pair "needs a break of 108.45 or 108.80 to get things moving in the short term."

If the pair breaks above 108.80, it will face next resistances at 109.00 and 10920. On the downside, supports are at 108.50, 108.25 and 108.10.

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD needs to break above 1.6415 for further upside – OCBC Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the sterling needs to convincingly surpass 1.6415 in order to facilitate the way towards the upper-1.6900s.

Key Quotes

“Cable meanwhile may remain somewhat detached while attempting to establish a foothold within the 1.6300-1.6400 zone with GBP outperformance also manifesting via the EUR-GBP since the Scottish referendum”.

“In the near term, any ability to pierce and hold above 1.6415 may pave the way to 1.6487”.

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US new home sales expected to rise 5.6% in August - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities remarks that market attention will be focused on the US new home sales data today, following the disappointing existing home sales numbers.

Key quotes

"We look for new home sales to rise 5.6% to 435K in August."

"The rise would offset some of the weakness seen in the prior month."

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GB/USD declines as dollar picks up some pace

FXStreet (London) - GBP/USD has declined through the session as the dollar gains some momentum after earlier consolidation from the dollar.

USD struggling for momentum

USD has been range-bound in recent trading. We heard some hawkish comments from Kansas Fed Esther George yesterday, but as a non-voting FOMC member, her comments failed to create many waves. Instead more attention is likely to be paid to Chicago Fed chairman Charles Evans and new Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester when they speak today.

GBP/USD is currently trading at USD1.6360, declining 0.2 percent on the session after earlier gains to USD1.6415.

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Sep 24, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD key support at 1.6275 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments that GBP/USD's key support is now at 1.6275, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Key quotes

"As commented several times on these daily updates, the weakness Pound may see on dollar strength will be far less important than EUR or JPY one as the BOE is also expected to rise rates sooner than later."

"Technically, the 4 hours chart presents a mild bearish tone, with price below its 20 SMA and indicators heading lower into negative territory."

"Having held for most of these last two weeks above the mentioned Fibonacci level, a clear break below it is required to confirm a new leg down, eyeing then an approach to 1.6220 price zone, where the pair presents multiple intraday highs and lows."

"To the upside, the key resistance stands at 1.6340/50 price zone and approaches to the area may be seen as selling opportunities."

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD remains bearish – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst Imre Speizer at Westpac keeps the bearish outlook on the NZD/USD, now targeting 0.7915.

Key Quotes

“We have reached our year-end target of 0.8000 much earlier than expected but remain bearish”.

“Channel support dating from November 2011 is currently at 0.7915, this being our next downside target”.

“Should that break down, then the implications are dire”.

“However, we’ll refrain from overly pessimistic forecasts for now, given how stretched the US dollar rally is”.

“The dovish shift by the RBNZ has been fully priced into rates markets, so it’s hard to see carry dropping too much further”.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF hits fresh 14-month high above 0.9500

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF extended gains and printed a fresh 14-month high Thursday as the greenback continues to strengthen across the board amid diverging rate outlooks between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

While the Fed is expected to start its rate hiking cycle in 2015, speculations have been growing the Swiss National Bank could even set negative interest rates.

USD/CHF rose for a second day in a row and broke above 0.9500 to hit its highest level since July 2013 at 0.9514 before easing back below 0.9500. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9495, recording a 0.43% gain on the day.

USD/CHF levels to watch

In terms of technical level, immediate resistances are seen at 0.9514 (Sept 25 high), 0.9533 (Jul 15 2013 high) and 0.9600 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 0.9452 (intraday low), 0.9390 (Sept 24 low) and 0.9354 (Sept 23 low).

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Durable Good Orders (Aug) dropped 18.2%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods have decreased 18.2% MoM during August vs. forecasts for a 18% decline and July’s 22.5% gain (revised). Excluding the Transportation sector, orders rose 0.7%, matching estimates and reverting the previous 0.7% drop.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD immune to US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD barely moved and continues to trade near the 1.2700 level following the latest string of US data which came mainly in line with expectations.

US durable goods orders fell 18.2% in August versus an expected drop of 18% and following a 22.6% rise in July. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7% as expected. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose to 293K in the latest week versus 300K of consensus and following 280K registered the previous week.

With data close to forecast, EUR/USD showed virtually no reaction and continues to hover around 1.2720, down 0.46%, having recovered from a fresh cycle low of 1.2696 scored earlier on the day.

EUR/USD technical outlook

“Current slide from 1.2864 high broke through 1.2820 lows and the general downtrend has been renewed, targeting 1.2630, en route to 1.2440”, said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock.com. “Initial intraday resistance is seen at 1.2760, followed by the major hurdle at 1.2820 and crucial on the upside is 1.2900 zone”.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE's Carney: Time for raising rates is getting closer, but no preset course

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries General Insurance Conference in Wales, BoE governor Mark Carney signals that the time of the first interest rate hike is getting closer.

• The economy is normalising.

• There is no pre-set course for interest rate hikes, they are data dependent.

• Once the rises start they will be limited and carried out in a gradual manner.

• The BoE is conscious of risks stemming from a prolonged period of low rates.

• Housing market is posing the biggest risks.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GB/USD jumps to 1.6330 as time for rate increase 'is getting closer'

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The pound is currently trading higher versus the US dollar as the pair is reacting to the upside following Bank Of England's Carney words that said that the time for interest rate to start to rise 'is getting closer.'

Carney also commented that the UK outlook improved and interest rate case has become more balanced. However, the central banker considers that financial market may be mispricing risk.

The GBP/USD is recovering ground after bounced at 1.6275 amid Carney's words and now it is testing the 200-hour MA at 1.6330. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6328, still down 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6344 and low at 1.6275.

GBP/USD sentiment

GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

"The pair lows today bottomed near the 50% of the move up in September at the 1.62867," points out Greg Michalowski from ForexLive. "The low from September 5th was also tested at the 1.62788. This is a good place for the pair to have bottomed."

Michalowski affirms that "the bias is turning around."

Above the 1.6330, next resistances are at 1.6350 and 1.6400. On the downside, 1.6775, 1.6250 and 1.6220 are supports.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE's Carney: Low rates posing risk for housing and financial markets

FXStreet (Łódź) - The BoE governor says that currently inflation is below target, after remaining above it for the last five years.

• Rates are materially lower than in the past and could be fuelling risk on housing and financial markets.

• Changes in interest rates will have an influence on the a highly indebted private sector.

• Addressing insurers Carney draws their attention to capital levels and requirements.

• Rules for hiring insurance officials will be revised, to be able to discipline them in case of misconduct.

• The contribution of UK insurance industry to annual GDP is considerable at £25B.

• It also creates 300,000 high-paying jobs.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE's Carney: Time for rate hikes drawing near

FXStreet (Łódź) - As expected, BoE governor Mark Carney signalled in his speech at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries General Insurance Conference in Wales, that an interest rate hike was drawing near, but failed to give any more details, only adding that the move would be data dependent.

Once the rises start they will be limited and carried out in a gradual manner, the BoE head stressed.

"Headwinds facing the economy are likely to take some time to die down," he pointed out. "Demand in our major export markets remains muted. Public balance sheet repair is ongoing. And a highly indebted private sector is likely to be particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates."

Carney assured however that the BoE is conscious of risks stemming from a prolonged period of low rates, especially for the housing and financial markets.

As far as the UK insurance sector is concerned, the BoE will update regulation in order to be able to discipline insurance executives and actuaries in case of misconduct, such as it had been made possible in the banking sector.

Following the comments GBP/USD climbed through the 1.6300 level to 1.6330.

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Sep 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY extends gains above 109.00

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now resuming its upside vs. the Japanese currency, pushing USD/JPY beyond the 109.00 handle and challenging session highs at the same time.

USD/JPY higher post data, looks to US

The JPY lost further momentum after the inflation figures in the Japanese economy showed results in general in line with market expectations, with the critical National CPI ex-Fresh Food advancing at an annual rate of 3.1%, pointing to some stabilization in the inflation. Ahead in the day, the US GDP annualized is due ahead of the Reuters/Michigan index, being the potential drivers for the pair’s price action throughout the rest of the session. “August CPI numbers were flat to softer than prior expectations and any resultant and heightened expectations for further BOJ initiatives may keep the JPY structurally vulnerable. In the near term however, potential risk aversion may serve to underpin the JPY within a 108.00-109.00 corridor”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.

USD/JPY levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.33% at 109.11 and a breakout of 109.37 (high Sep.25) would expose 109.46 (2014 high Sep.18) and finally 109.57 (high Aug.29 2008). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 108.47 (low Sep.26) ahead of 108.46 (low Sep.24) and then 108.25 (low Sep.23).

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold turns lower but remains on track for weekly gains

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold pulled back on Friday but remained on track for a small weekly gain after 3 weeks of losses.

The yellow metal posted a fresh 2014 low at $1,206.84 on Thursday, but managed to recover ground as the slump in US stocks sent investors looking for safe-havens. However, the recovery attempt stalled at the $1,230 zone at the beginning of the European session. With the metal having retraced completely intraday gains, gold is currently trading at $1,220 an ounce, 0.1% below its opening price.

Gold remains vulnerable near the $1,200 level as the greenback headed for an eleventh week of gains.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB's Coeure optimistic on the next TLTRO take-up

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure assured at the IMF/Bank of Slovenia seminar on Friday that each of the upcoming, consecutive seven rounds of targeted longer-term refinancing operations should see a bigger take-up than the first one.

As soon as the ECB's Eurozone banking sector probe is finalized , the financial institutions will be more disposed to provide credit, Coeure said.

Furthermore, he suggested that nominal rates in the Eurozone would remain at low levels for an extended period of time, real interest rates should decrease.

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD inches down after US GDP

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD inched lower and hit a fresh daily low as the greenback strengthened after the US Q2 gross domestic product was upwardly revised.

The US economy grew at a 4.6% annual pace in the second quarter, matching consensus, up from the 4.2% previously estimated. This reading follows a 2.1% contraction in the previous quarter and is the best since mid 2009.

EUR/USD gave up a few pips and hit a daily low of 1.2714 after the release. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2715, recording a 0.27% loss on the day and headed for a fourth week of losses.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.2697 (Sept 25 low), 1.2690 (Nov 16 2012 low) and 1.2660 (Nov 13 2012 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.2760 (intraday high), 1.2800 (psychological level) and 1.2845 (10-day SMA).

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD clinches to 1.1130 post data

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is now picking up pace against the CAD, lifting the USD/CAD back beyond the 1.1130 level.

USD/CAD lifted on US GDP

The pair is now accelerating the bounce off sub-1.1100 levels and remains poised to challenge earlier session peaks in the 1.1130/40 band following the positive reading from the US GDP, expanding 4.6% on a yearly basis, broadly in line with previous estimates. Further data also showed that inflation gauged by the PCE rose at an annual rate of 2.3%. According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “failure to close above the 1.1125 level (76.4% retracement from the March-July move lower) for a third session in a row today after repeated attempts to break clear of that resistance level over the last three days, does call into question the willingness of the market to drive the price much higher in the short term”.

USD/CAD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.1128 with the next hurdle at 1.1170 (high Mar.26) ahead of the psychological level at 1.1200. On the downside, a break below 1.1053 (low Sep.24) would open the door to 1.1008 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.0986 (low Sep.23).

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD stalled at 0.8800

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The AUD is now surrendering part of the recovery from session lows in the mid-0.8700s, dragging the AUD/USD back to the 0.8770/75 region.

AUD/USD weaker after US docket

The intraday rebound in the AUD was hampered by the results from the US docket, showing that the economy expanded in line with expectations 4.6% over the last twelve months in Q2; in the same line, headline consumer prices tracked by the PCE rose 2.3% YoY and Core prices gained 2.0%. “With global risk appetite levels still soggy, the pair is currently contemplating a break below the 0.8800 region with little of consequence till 0.8660 while 0.8840 may cap in the near term”, noted Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.

AUD/USD key levels

As of writing the pair is losing 0.07% at 0.8781 with the immediate support at 0.8730 (low Feb.4) ahead of 0.8695 (low Jan.31) and then 0.8678 (low Jan.27). On the flip side, a breakout of 0.8885 (high Sep.25) would expose 0.8897 (high Sep.24) and finally 0.8927 (high Sep.23).

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Sep 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Busy week ahead for Australia - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Davis, Vice President, Global Strategist at TD Securities reviews the most important Australian data releases next week.

Key quotes

"The week kicks off with the release of the RBA Credit Aggregates, TD forecasting a lift of 0.4% for August."

"On Wednesday, House Price data for Sep will be released, and should garner more attention given the RBA’s attempts to jawbone house prices - we pencil in +1.5% for Sep."

"Also out on Wed are August Retail Sales, TD forecasts a rise of 0.4% to reflect better consumer optimism."

"Thursday should see the Trade Balance for August clock in a $500m deficit with risks of a better number on upside risks for exports while the volatile Building Approvals for August could decline by 2%."

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Sep 26, 2014

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