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USD/JPY pushes to fresh daily highs

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY has advanced slightly Monday, reaching fresh daily highs at the beginning of the New York session, but still not able to pick up momentum to retest last week’s 6-year highs.

USD/JPY has risen modestly throughout the day, and printed a fresh daily high of 105.47 in recent dealings as the dollar recovers from post-NFP lows against the yen. US nonfarm payrolls showed the US added the fewest jobs in 8 months in August (142K vs 225K exp.), hitting the greenback across the board.

However, the setback of USD/JPY was contained by the 104.65 area and the pair managed to close the week above the 105.00 mark. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 105.40, recording a 0.31% gain on the day.

The calendar is light for the American session, but traders will be watching the Bank of Japan meeting minutes to be published next Asian session.

USD/JPY technical outlook

“The intraday outlook is rather negative, for a slide through 104.70, en route to 103.50”, said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock. “Crucial on the upside is 105.70”.

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Sep 08, 2014

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Market uncertainty grows as poll points to possible Scottish yes vote - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts comment on the possible consequences of a "yes" vote and of a "no" vote in Scotland's independence referendum scheduled for 18 September.

Key quotes

"The Sunday Times YouGov poll over the weekend became the first major poll to show a majority Yes vote in favour of Scottish independence, with a 51-49 margin excluding undecided votes."

"There are still significant uncertainties over the accuracy of polling in this situation that will likely leave significant uncertainty over markets right up through the September 18th referendum."

"Market reactions (cable down 1.5%, 2-5y area rallying 6bps, first BoE hike pushed back from Feb15 to May15) confirm our bias that cable is likely to underperform into the referendum, with a Yes vote likely triggering a further 2-3% fall, with a rally in 2s and steepening out the curve, with 10s more uncertain, and the market pushing back the BoE’s first hike by up to 12 months."

"In the case of a Yes vote, we would expect GBPUSD to trade in a range of 1.5450-1.5722 in the aftermath while Dec15 short sterling still offers value in the case of a Yes vote, while the nearer contracts are likely in the middle of their potential ranges."

"In the case of a No, EURGBP is likely to retrace as low as 0.7950."

"UK markets will now likely trade from poll to poll, with the next major poll from TNS BMRB potentially released Tuesday morning."

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Sep 08, 2014

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GBP/USD stages mild recovery after sharp selloff

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD is staging a mild recovery at the beginning of the American session after a Scottish independence poll sent Cable to its lowest level in over nine months.

For the first time, an poll is giving the lead to the ‘yes’ vote in Scotland independence campaign. YouGov poll showed a majority ‘yes’ vote, with a 51-49 margin excluding undecided votes.

GBP/USD left a huge bearish gap and extended losses to a low of 1.6102, last seen in November, before finding buyers. The pair has managed to recover some ground over the last hours, with the 1.6175 area capping the upside so far. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6165, recording a 0.95% loss on the day.

GBP/USD technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart indicators aim slightly higher in oversold territory, still far from suggesting a stronger upward correction”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Sellers should surge in case of a recovery above 1.6200, in the 1.6220/1.6250 area, while renewed selling pressure below 1.6110 should open doors for a new leg lower towards 1.6070 price zone”.

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Sep 08, 2014

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USD/JPY extending gains above 105.00 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes, USD/JPY is climbing steadily above the 105.00 level on Monday.

Key quotes

"USD/JPY is extending the bounce from its 100 SMA, currently around 105.10 and immediate short term support."

"In the same time frame, indicators head higher above their midlines, lacking momentum at the time being, while the 4 hours chart shows indicators also well into positive territory, but with no strength."

"Above 105.45, January high, the pair will likely retest past week one of 105.70, in route to 106.00."

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Sep 08, 2014

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UK: Annual Industrial Production dips 1.6% in May

FXStreet (Łódź) - Year-over-year UK Industrial Production fell by 1.6% in May, following a 2.0% drop in April, National Statistics informed on Tuesday. This is a more positive result that the forecasted 2.1% decrease. UK Industrial Production rose by 1% between April 2012 and May 2012, in comparison with the 0.4% decline registered between March 2012 and April 2012 and against expectations of a 0.2% drop.

On an annual basis UK Manufacturing Production fell by 1.7% in May, after decreasing 1.5% in April and above expectations of a 1.9% decline. Between April 2012 and May 2012 UK Manufacturing Production rose 1.2%, following a 0.8% drop between March 2012 and April 2012 and exceeding market consensus of 0.1% growth.

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Sep 09, 2014

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GBP/USD 1.6000 A Big Level...Will It Hold? - ForexTrading.TV

FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV wonders whether the GBP/USD 1.6000 level will hold.

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Sep 09, 2014

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Credit Agricole: Recent GBP drop connected with Scottish independence vote - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team comment on Credit Agricole 's observation that since the beginning of July GBP/USD fell to 1.611 from 1.719 and as the drop accelerated last week it is most probably due to the market pricing in risks of Scotland voting 'yes' in the independence referendum.

Key quotes

"Position squaring explains some of the move, as the UK economic data has modestly decelerated in Q3 and the market has cut back some its long GBP holdings. However, nearly half of this move has taken place over the past the week, suggesting that the market has started to price in the risks of a breakup."

"We take a stab at the potential implications of a 'yes' vote on September 18, which in our view are considerable. The biggest risks are the destabilization of the banking system and the potential for a sharp rise in the UK’s debt burden."

"Furthermore, the debt build-up could also weaken the growth prospects for Scotland (and the rest of the UK) but it would not have currency control to lessen the impacts."

"Indeed, the BoE would still dominate Scotland monetary policy."

"Corporate investment and consumer spending is likely to grind to a halt amid economic and regulatory uncertainty."

"All told, the long-term outcome of a possible 'yes' vote is a re-run of the Eurozone crisis – namely the dangers associated with fiscal sovereignty and a shared currency."

"While we stick to our view that Scotland will likely vote 'no,' be prepared for sharp drop in GBP if the Scot’s decide to leave."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Sep 09, 2014

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BoE's Carney: Rate hike by spring 2015 consistent with goal

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a trade union congress in Liverpool BoE governor Mark Carney signals that the first rate hike is drawing nearer.

• The labor market needs time to recuperate before rates rise.

• Real wage growth should resume by the middle of 2015.

• Once the increases start, they will be gradual and limited.

• Inflation remains benign.

• UK GDP expected at 3.5% in 2014 and at 3% next year.

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Sep 09, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE's Carney: Rate hike by spring 2015 consistent with goal

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a trade union congress in Liverpool BoE governor Mark Carney signals that the first rate hike is drawing nearer.

• The labor market needs time to recuperate before rates rise.

• Real wage growth should resume by the middle of 2015.

• Once the increases start, they will be gradual and limited.

• Inflation remains benign.

• UK GDP expected at 3.5% in 2014 and at 3% next year.

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Sep 09, 2014

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ECB's Liikanen: Scale of ABS buys still under discussion

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said on Tuesday that the scale of ECB's ABS and cover bond purchases, announced last week, hasn't been decided yet.

He stressed that the new measures should be implemented with caution and that the central bank should be wary of taking risks.

The ECB policymaker assured that the rate cuts carried out last Thursday were necessary, as recent data showed a slowdown of economic recovery in the Eurozone.

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Sep 09, 2014

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EUR/USD pressures recent highs of 1.2950 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik remarks that EUR/USD is correcting higher on Wednesday showing a mild positive tone in the 4 hours chart.

Key quotes

"Price managed to establish above its 20 SMA, now acting as the base of the latest range around 1.2920, and indicators aiming higher, having erased all of their oversold readings and about to test their midlines."

"The pair seems ready to extend its upward corrective movement, eyeing now the 1.2990 area, last Friday post US NFP high."

"If price manages to continue advancing and settles above 1.3000, the rally can extend up to 1.3050 over the upcoming sessions, without really harming the dominant bearish trend."

"But if 1.2920 gives up, chances of such corrective movement vanish, with the pair exposed then to a retest of recent lows around 1.2859."

"Below this last, an approach to the 1.2800/20 area seems likely in the short term, from where the path is quite clear towards the main bearish target of 1.2740."

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Sep 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD pressures recent highs of 1.2950 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik remarks that EUR/USD is correcting higher on Wednesday showing a mild positive tone in the 4 hours chart.

Key quotes

"Price managed to establish above its 20 SMA, now acting as the base of the latest range around 1.2920, and indicators aiming higher, having erased all of their oversold readings and about to test their midlines."

"The pair seems ready to extend its upward corrective movement, eyeing now the 1.2990 area, last Friday post US NFP high."

"If price manages to continue advancing and settles above 1.3000, the rally can extend up to 1.3050 over the upcoming sessions, without really harming the dominant bearish trend."

"But if 1.2920 gives up, chances of such corrective movement vanish, with the pair exposed then to a retest of recent lows around 1.2859."

"Below this last, an approach to the 1.2800/20 area seems likely in the short term, from where the path is quite clear towards the main bearish target of 1.2740."

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Sep 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD extends the recovery

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dipping to the mid-1.6000s, the buying interest turned up and is now lifting the GBP/USD back to levels beyond 1.6100 the figure.

GBP/USD hurt by Scottish referendum

The news/events/poll-results from the Scottish referendum (September 18th) continue to be the main drivers for the sterling so far, extending the correction lower to sub-1.6060 levels on Wednesday. There are no data releases in the British economy today, although Governor Carney’s speech before Parliament will be the major event. “We have suggested that the $1.60 area for sterling, which houses the 200-week moving average and is a key retracement objective as a reasonable target before the referendum. A "yes" vote would likely spur additional losses. Technical considerations give sterling potential toward $1.5725 as the next target. If the gap created by the September 8 sharply lower opening is a measuring gap (that takes place around halfway through a move), it would project toward $1.5100”, observed analysts at BBH.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.10% at 1.6122 with the next hurdle at 1.6157 (high Sep.9) followed by 1.6200 (psychological level) and then 1.6270 (high Sep.8). On the flip side, a breach of 1.6003 (50% of 1.4814-1.7192) would open the door to 1.5988 (low Nov.14 2013) and finally 1.5879 (low Nov.13).

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Sep 10, 2014

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ECB's Praet: Demand an issue in weak bank lending

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB executive board member and chief economist Peter Praet said on a panel discussion at the Eurofi Financial Forum in Milan, Italy that the weakness in bank lending in the Eurozone was brought about by not only by supply problems but also by demand issues.

"Both demand and supply action is needed in order to improve bank lending," Praet stressed, adding that ECB's asset quality review of Eurozone banks should have a positive impact on credit supply.

Moreover, the ECB policymaker urged Member States to increase efforts to boost work force participation and stimulate productivity. He also highlighted the weak corporate investment in the euro area.

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Sep 10, 2014

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EUR/USD slips below 1.2900 after SNB reports

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has come under renewed pressure sliding back below the 1.2900 level amid reports saying the Swiss National Bank is open to negative interest rates.

SNB’s Moser said in a WSJ interview, the bank is ready to set negative interest rates if needed. Moser added that he couldn’t say whether the SNB would announce this at its coming meeting on Sept. 18.

Following European Central Bank latest easing measures and with EUR/CHF moving dangerously close to the SNB floor of 1.2000, many analysts have been speculating whether the Swiss will take further measures aside of direct intervention to protect the floor.

EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.2896 in recent dealings as EUR/CHF surged above 1.2100 on the headlines. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2899, 0.29% below its opening price, with its 14-month low of 1.2859 scored yesterday in sight.

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Sep 10, 2014

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France's Industrial Output grows in July against forecasts - BNP Paribas

FXStreet (Łódź) - Helene Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas, comments on the French Industrial Production data for July, which grew 0.2% against forecasts of a 0.4% drop.

Key quotes

"Despite its modest size, this increase is rather a good surprise, especially given the deterioration in business confidence in the sector."

"The growth prospects for Q3 remain aligned with the two preceding quarters that is nil growth."

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Sep 10, 2014

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BoE's Carney: Point where rates should rise is moving closer

FXStreet (Łódź) - Testifying before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee on the August BoE inflation report, the central bank's governor Mark Carney says that the MPC is aiming at eliminating spare capacity.

• There is no fixed path for the bank rate, Carney emphasizes.

• Rates to stay "materially below" historical average.

• BoE's Miles says that there is no immediate urgency to start normalizing monetary policy, while Carney says that the point where rates should rise is moving closer.

• New ONS GDP revisions do not suggest less slack, Carney remarks.

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Sep 10, 2014

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BoE's Carney: Independent Scottish central bank would need access to sterling reseves

FXStreet (Łódź) - When asked about the Scottish independence referendum BoE governor Carney suggests that a free flow of people, capital, and goods would be necessary between Scotland and UK if Scots decided to keep the pound.

• "Sterlingization needs credible institutions, deposit insurance."

• The central bank is not necessarily a credible lender of the last resort if it is not a currency issuer, Carney says.

• An independent Scottish central bank could need access to sterling reserves of about 25% of GDP in order to be a credible lender of last resort.

• "Seignorage is not an option in unilateral currency adoption."

• Division of debt and reserves would be a subject to negotiation.

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Sep 10, 2014

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AUD/USD takes a breather near 5-month lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD managed to stabilize and entered into a consolidation phase after a 3-day selloff that led the Aussie to its lowest level in over 5 months.

AUD/USD broke below the 0.9200 level and the 200-day SMA Wednesday and precipitated to a low of 0.9112 at the beginning of the European session, before finding support and settling in a range. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9140, 0.67% below its opening price.

Australian jobs data is scheduled for Thursday’s Asian session. Consensus calls for a 12,000 job gain and jobless rate to drop to 6.3% in August. The neighbor Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on monetary policy, and even though no changes are expected, it could create some turbulence for the Aussie.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, next supports for AUD/USD are seen at 0.9112 (Sept 10 low), 0.9100 (psychological level) and 0.9047 (Mar 24 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9182 (200-day SMA), 0.9200 (psychological level) and 0.9216 (Sept 10 high).

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Sep 10, 2014

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BoE's Carney grilled about possible implications of Scotland becoming independent

FXStreet (Łódź) - As expected, BoE governor Mark Carney and other MPC members who testified on Wednesday before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee on the August BoE inflation report, were mainly asked about the possible consequences of Scotland becoming independent.

The head of the central bank suggested that if the Scots decided to maintain the pound it would be necessary to assure a free flow of people, capital, and goods between Scotland and the UK.

"Once you put borders in place, economic borders tend to build up," he stressed.

Moreover, Carney stated that in order to be able to function as a lender of the last resort, the independent Scottish central bank would need access to sterling reserves of about 25% of GDP. It would receive up to £15bn of UK reserves, which is approximately 12% of GDP.

"BoE would take the responsibility of stabilizing the economy in transition period," the central bank head assured. He also said that a currency union would require ceding some sovereignty and that the Scottish government would have to make budget decisions "consistent with currency arrangements if adopted unilaterally."

Apart from discussing the Scottish independence issue Carney said in his prepared remarks that no fixed path had been established for the bank rate and that it should remain "materially below" historical average for now.

He added however that the point where rates should rise was moving closer, which prompted a EUR/USD spike.

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Sep 10, 2014

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GBP/USD recovers ground but doesn't get too far

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD has managed to recover ground and even posted fresh daily highs after falling to fresh 10-month low amid jitters ahead of the Scottish independence vote.

GBP/USD hit a low of 1.6051 during the European trade, but its has been on recovery mode ever since, recovering more than a full cent and climbing as far as 1.6169 in recent dealings. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6145, up 0.25% on the day.

Even BoE Governor Carney has addressed Scottish independence referendum during Inflation Report Hearing. He said that once borders are put in place, economic borders tend to build up and that central bank could not be a credible lender of last resort if it does not issue currency and went through the difficulties of adopting the pound unilaterally.

GBP/USD technical outlook

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that Cable holds a quite neutral technical stance in short-term charts. A rally above 1.2150 “should favor a continued advance towards 1.6200 area, 23.6% retracement of the latest bearish run”.

Bednarik locates next resistance levels at 1.6205, 1.6240 and 1.6285, while supports are seen at 1.6100, 1.6060 and 1.6020.

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Sep 10, 2014

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USD supported by prospects of hawkish Fed - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank, notes that the Federal Reserve is expected to make a hawkish shift next week, which is supporting the USD.

Key Quotes

"The upcoming September 17th Fed meeting and building expectations that the Fed will make a hawkish shift is supporting a broad strengthening in the USD".

"The Fed's forward guidance (that interest rates will be on hold for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends) is expected to be changed; likely to a line that ties the expected path of interest rates to developments on inflation, employment and financial market conditions".

"This shift would highlight an increasingly hawkish Fed and likely support the USD further, particularly against currencies whose monetary policy is diverging from the U.S., including JPY and EUR".

"For currencies like CAD the impact of a more hawkish Fed is more complicated. Currently, the Fed Funds market is pricing in the first interest rate hike in July 2015; with a second in October 2015 and closing 2016 with rates at 1.75%. As the San Francisco Fed paper suggests this is slightly less aggressive than what the June FOMC SEP suggested, putting increased pressure on these forecasts as well".

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Sep 10, 2014

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High yielders remain under pressure - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts discuss the reasons for the recent drop in the AUD and the NDZ.

Key quotes

"NZD took a beating following the release of a dovish RBNZ statement, one that pushed expectations for the next rate hike further into the future."

"The Kiwi is the worst performer amongst the majors today, as NZD/USD trades at 0.8177."

"The AUD, on the other hand, was flattered by a massive upside surprise in August employment, which printed at 121K vs. market expectations for a 15K reading."

"However, the initial move higher in AUD/USD has retraced in part as the market digested the details of the report — which showed the bulk of the gain was due to part-time employment, but also upon reflection that this report, although it might put to bed speculation of a rate cut by the RBA, still does not bring a rate hike any closer."

"Hence, AUD/USD is trading lower at 0.9130, close to yesterday intraday lows."

"A continued decline in commodity prices adds to downward pressures on these high yielders and reinforces the recent market dynamics we highlighted yesterday, which seem poised to extend the unwinding of carry trades on the likes of AUD and NZD."

"Between the two, the former appears to have the upper hand on the latter, and AUDNZD will likely trade higher into the mid-upper 1.12 area over the next few weeks, in line with our year-end target."

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Sep 11, 2014

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Bank of England addresses Bitcoin questions

FXStreet (London) - In its Quarterly Bulletin, the Bank of England(BoE) has released two papers looking at the emergence of digital currencies such as Bitcoin.

Rather than the debate over the nature of the currencies themselves and their volatile behaviour, paper on “Innovations in payment technologies and the emergence of digital currencies” instead looks at the decentralised nature of the currencies and the “distributed ledger” technology which allows payments to operate without banking intermediaries – including central banks like the BoE.

The second piece on “The economics of digital currencies” looks at the “moneyness” of digital currencies. It argues that while digital currencies could, in theory, serve as money for anybody with an internet-enabled device, at present they serve the roles of money only to a limited extent and only for relatively few people. The BoE paper estimates that as few as 20,000 people in the United Kingdom currently hold any bitcoins, and that as few as 300 transactions may be conducted by those people per day.

The article also argues that the economics of the schemes, as currently designed, pose significant challenges to their widespread adoption:

- At a microeconomic level, a key attraction of some digital currency schemes at present is their low transaction fees. But the incentives embedded in the current design of digital currencies mean that these fees may eventually need to rise significantly, as usage grows.

- At a macroeconomic level, most digital currencies, as currently designed, incorporate a predetermined path towards a fixed eventual supply – a feature which, in a purely hypothetical scenario in which the digital currency were used as the predominant form of money, would likely cause greater volatility in prices and real activity due to the inability of the money supply to vary in response to aggregate demand.

The BoE article concludes that:

Digital currencies do not currently pose a material risk to monetary or financial stability in the United Kingdom, given the small size of such schemes. For instance, it is estimated that there is less than £60 million worth of bitcoins circulating within the UK economy, which represents less than 0.1% of sterling notes and coin and only 0.003% of broad money balances. [While} potential future risks to monetary and financial stability but notes that while conceivable, these risks could only emerge if the size of the schemes were to grow significantly. The Bank continues to monitor digital currencies and the risks they pose to its mission.

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Sep 11, 2014

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USD/JPY can't hold above 107.00 and falls to 106.60

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After reaching fresh highs since September 2008 at 107.15, USD/JPY found selling interest at this area as the pair was unable to maintain the 107.00 figure and it's trading now back around 106.60.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 106.74, down 0.10% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.15 and low at 106.60. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index also is neutral.

USD/JPY sentiment

"Exporter and option related offers are still intact up to 107.20," comments Matt Bacon-Hall from FXBeat. "As someone who has had the misfortune of trading spot USD/JPY for years this is fairly typical."

"Overall the market is bid yet the offers on the way up can be quiet large and frequent."

"More offers lie 107.40-50, whilst bids commence at 106.90 from intra day players," concludes Matt. On the downside, next supports lies at 106.60 ahead of 106.40 and 106.00.

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Sep 11, 2014

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