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GBP/USD breaks support, hits 5-month lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its trip lower and having broken below the 1.6535 support area, it stretched to its lowest level since March.

Even though the GBP/USD attempted to stage a corrective bounce from the 1.6550 zone post-UK PMI data, it was capped by 1.6580 and came under renewed pressure, falling much deeper and turning into the worst performer in the FX market. The Cable broke below several supports and stretched to a low of 1.6516, last seen Mar 26.

At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.6520, down 0.51% on the day. The GBP/USD is retreating after 4 consecutive days of gains, after being rejected from the 1.6645 area yesterday’s European session.

GBP/USD technical levels

Immediate support is now seen at 1.6508 (Mar 26 low) and the 1.6500 psychological level. On the other hand, resistances could be found at 1.6580 (intraday level/200-hour SMA), 1.6612 (Aug 27 & 28 highs) and 1.6645 (Sep 1 high).

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Sep 02, 2014

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XAU/USD eyeing 1 year triangle support again - ForexTrading.TV

FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, points out that XAU/USD is eyeing 1 year triangle support again.

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Sep 02, 2014

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What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is extending its selling mood on Tuesday, putting the key 1.3100 support to the test ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.

“EUR/USD is expected to stabilise around the 1.3105 September 2013 low before reaching the psychological 1.3000 region. On the hourly and daily charts we can see positive divergence which, together with the loss of downside momentum over the past few days, increases the chances of a minor bounce towards the 1.3200 region being seen”, noted Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.

In addition, Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, commented,”We expect EUR/USD to fall near term on policy divergence and portfolio flows. Market speculation of further ECB easing will resurface in coming months on very low CPI and weak growth. Meanwhile, we expect the market to move forward its Fed rate hike expectations. Monetary divergence will continue to support the USD”.

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Sep 02, 2014

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Session Recap: USD extends gains across the board

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Dollar strength has been the theme of the session, with the US currency reaching fresh multi-month highs versus its rivals, and putting the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY on a run toward psychological levels.

The EUR/USD resumed the slide and hit another 1-year low a few pips above 1.3100 after a bounce attempt was capped by the 1.3140 zone. The USD/JPY soared throughout the last sessions, peaking at a high of 104.97 and threatening the 105.00 level.

The GBP/USD is among the worst performers, having pulled back sharply toward its lowest level in 5 months at 1.6516 before finding respite. The GBP has shrugged off solid construction PMI data and seems more focused on the news that the Scottish polling gap is narrowing into the referendum on Sep 18.

Meanwhile stocks are broadly higher in Europe amid expectations the European Central Bank could launch further easing measures Thursday aimed to underpin growth and fight deflation.

Commodities were lower amid broad dollar strength. Gold lost 1.28% to $1,270 an ounce while crude oil dropped 0.73% to $95.25 a barrel.

The US rejoin markets after the long weekend, with ISM manufacturing PMI and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index scheduled.

The cautious tone is increasing as investors await the ECB meeting Thursday and the US nonfarm payrolls report Friday.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Ukraine is back to the headlines – Danske Bank

European stocks advance with ECB in focus

United Kingdom PMI Construction came in at 64, above forecasts (61.4) in August

Gold falls as dollar strength outweighs safe-haven demand

European Monetary Union Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (-1.1%) in July

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Sep 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD sell on rallies – Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Currency Strategist Jane Foley at Rabobank recommends selling the EUR/USD on strength.

Key Quotes

“In recent weeks the market consensus of when the Fed is likely to announce the first rate hike of the cycle has been largely unaltered. The market expects the Fed fund rate to be hiked around the middle of next year – earlier than our estimate of the end of next year”.

“By contrast, expectations regarding the course of ECB policy are in the process of being overhauled”.

“Last Friday’s remarks from ECB President at Jackson Hole have raised the odds of the ECB eventually announced QE. While we expect it is too early to see such a policy change at next week’s meeting, we see some form of intermediate policy action as being possible quite soon; preparations for an ABS purchase program may be complete as early as October”.

“The tone of the ECB committee and its commitment to further policy actions will, of course, be data dependent”.

“We expect EUR/USD to trend towards 1.28 and below medium-term and favour selling EUR/USD on rallies”.

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Sep 02, 2014

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USD and EUR: opposite realities – Societe Generale

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, remarks the differences between the Fed and the ECB policies.

Key Quotes

"The US 1year rate in 5 years is flirting with 3%, the lowest level since last June. It's fallen far further than I thought possible from the peak above 4% this time last year."

"At the same time, the 1y/1y rate is edging back towards the end-July recent peak near 1.2% and if we get strong data this week, we can see that broken. For most of the FX market, it's the shorter-term rate which matters more."

"The Fed has been successful in anchoring expectations about ‘terminal' Fed Funds, but the market is getting on with the job of pricing in a hiking cycle that starts in mid-2015. The dollar is responding and has further to rise."

"This shift in shorter-term US rate expectations contrasts with what is happening in the Euro area, of course, but markets are now in such a state of anticipation about what the ECB might do this Thursday (cut rates, increase bond purchases, unveil a ‘proper' QE programme?) that the risk of disappointment is clear. Mr Draghi's Jackson Hole comments point to increased concern, but the hurdles to stronger action haven't vanished and the ECB remains a slow-moving organisation."

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Sep 02, 2014

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EUR/USD remains heavy - Investec

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, notes the ongoing strength in the USD.

Key Quotes

"USDJPY broke higher after trading through decent resistance around 104.00-20 as investors ready for the post Summer moves, while the Australian Dollar weakened on a widening Current account deficit leading many other US Dollar crosses to follow suit".

"The USDJPY rally may bring fresh cross-Yen buying to the market that will help support the Euro and Pound in the short term but certainly we expect the Euro to remain heavy into Thursday's ECB meeting with the outside chance of a rate cut remaining a possibility".

"The Pound meanwhile will need to get through the next two PMI releases before the market may be tempted to buy some Pounds before Thursday's MPC meeting."

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Sep 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD breaks above 1.0900

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is confirming its momentum vs. its neighbour on Tuesday, lifting the USD/CAD beyond 1.0900 the figure.

USD/CAD eyes on US, CAD data

Markets are slowly returning to normalcy following yesterday’s inactivity due to the Labor Day. Ahead in the day, gauges of the manufacturing sector in both Canada and the US – PMI and ISM – are set to mark the pace of price action while spot is looking to consolidate the recent breakout of the key handle at 1.0900. “Technically, the heavy selling seen early last week still did a fair amount of damage to the broader picture—the weekly chart formed a bearish weekly reversal signal overall last week—but the strength of the bounce off the low Friday suggests no immediate pressure on the low 1.08 area for now”, signaled Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to watch

The pair is now advancing 0.38% at 1.0913 and a break above 1.0921 (10-d MA) would aim for 1.0956 (high Aug.27) and then 1.0998 (high Aug.26). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 1.0857 (low Sep.1) ahead of 1.0810 (low Aug.29) and finally b1.0796 (low Jul.29).

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Sep 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: ISM Manufacturing PMI hits 59 in August

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI grew to 59 in August from 57.1 in July, the Institute for Supply Management informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected a drop to 56.8.

ISM Prices Paid slid to 58 from 59.5, as expected.

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Sep 02, 2014

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Chinese, US data boosting risk sentiment – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Recent releases in the Chinese economy and the US gave extra wings to the risk appetite today.

Key Quotes

“Chinese service PMIs released this morning showed a rebound in sentiment”.

“China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose from 54.2 in July to 54.4 in August and HSBC’s service PMI rose to 54.1 in August from 50.0 in July”.

“The combination of strong US data together with a rebound in Chinese service PMIs has boosted sentiment on Asian bourses and most regional indices trade higher this morning”.

“In addition, risk appetite is supported by speculations that Japan prime minister Abe will soon appoint a policy maker to head the health ministry (which is in charge of the Government Pension Investment Fund, GPIF), who may introduce new pension reforms forcing GPIF to shift away from Japanese government bonds towards more risky assets”.

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Sep 03, 2014

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Russia denies ceasefire deal

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Kremlin has just released a disclaimer that no ceasefire deal has been reached with Ukrainian President Petro, due to the fact that Russia is not a party in the conflict.

The EUR/USD slid immediately to 1.3133 on the news.

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Sep 03, 2014

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Deflationary risks in the euro bloc looming – Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, assessed the last figures from the inflation figures in Euroland and compares them with the Japanese case.

Key Quotes

“Over the past year or so the strong disinflationary trend of the Eurozone has resulted in numerous comparisons over whether the region could be headed towards Japanese style deflation”.

“While the BoJ may currently be able to claim some success in pushing higher inflation expectations, the ECB cannot. ECB President Draghi last week emphasised that there had been a “significant decline at all horizon” in inflation expectations and it was this that drew the pledge to use “all the available instruments needed” to ensure price stability”.

“The BoJ sees a rise in inflation expectations as being pivotal in breaking out of the deflationary loop. On this point, it is clear that the ECB is agreed”.

“Insofar as there is a causal link between CPI inflation and inflation expectations, how low Eurozone CPI inflation falls is likely to have a strong bearing on determining how far the ECB will go in provide fresh policy incentives”.

“A Reuters surveys suggests that economists are of the view that the ECB may have embarked in QE by March next year. Continued weak EZ CPI readings will likely ensure further interim policy announcements”.

“We expect the EUR to remain under pressure, though with further stimulus from the BoJ still possible we would prefer to sell the EUR vs. the USD rather than the JPY”.

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Sep 03, 2014

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EUR/USD up and down on Ukrainian news - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments on today's EUR/USD moves, with risk once on and then off again and then back on due to the contradicting news coming from different sources on the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire deal.

Key quotes

"Early news of a permanent ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia triggering a relief rally among high yielders and pushing EUR/USD up to 1.3550."

"But the news was denied around 30 minutes later, as Putin spokesman denied the cease fire, but a few minutes afterwards it said that Russian President does back the idea of a immediate ceasefire in Ukraine."

"The EUR/USD retraced down to current 1.3140 area, measly 20 pips above pre news levels, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around a bearish 20 SMA and momentum crossing its midline to the upside."

"Chances of a stronger upward move seem limited with all the back and forth in the geopolitical news, and ahead of ECB economic policy decision on Thursday, yet an upward acceleration above mentioned daily high could see price approaching the 1.3190/1.3200 price zone."

"On the other hand, the downside remains protected by the static support at 1.3105, September 2013 monthly low, and it will take a clear break below it to see a bearish extension towards 1.3050/60 price zone.

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Sep 03, 2014

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Gold recovers from 11-week lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold recovered from 11-week lows Wednesday and it is trading nearly flat on the day amid contradictory headlines about an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

The yellow metal saw a quick drop toward a fresh 11-week low near $1,261 as investors dumped the safe-haven in a bout of risk appetite. However, with Moscow downplaying the truce, the price climbed back to opening levels. At time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,267/oz, little changed on the day.

On Tuesday, greenback's strength outweighed any safe-haven appeal and pushed gold prices toward their biggest fall in nearly 3 months.

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Sep 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY clinches to 105.00

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. the Japanese currency on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY now coming down to the 105.00 region from above 105.30.

USD/JPY points to fresh year highs above 105.40

Spot remains bid despite today’s correction, recently boosted by changes in Abe’s cabinet. The pair seems to be taking a breather on its way to test ytd peaks just above the 105.40 level against the backdrop of the USD rally. “The anticipated USD strength is much, much stronger than expected. Upward momentum remains strong and the current rally is expected to extend towards the year-to-date high of 105.40/45; 104.85 is acting as a strong intraday support”, observed Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.

USD/JPY levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.02% at 105.07 and a breakdown of 104.41 (Tenkan Sen) would expose 104.30 (low Sep.2) and finally 104.20 (10-d MA). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 105.31 (high Sep.3) ahead of 105.42 (high Jan.10) and then 105.45 (2014 high Jan.1).

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Sep 03, 2014

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Session Recap: Ukraine's headlines drive markets

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Investors welcomed news of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to cease fire, which lifted risk appetite across markets. However, equities trimmed some of their initial spikes, gold recovered from lows and the euro eased from highs as markets are confused by subsequent downplays and denials from Moscow.

The EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.3156 following the first headlines despite disappointing services PMIs from the region. The GBP/USD recovered from 6-month lows, helped by a strong service PMI reading, but the bounce was halted a few pips shy of the 1.6600 level.

The USD/JPY remained pretty steady around 105.00, while the AUD/USD continued to benefit from a strong GDP reading and hawkish comments from RBA Stevens.

Elsewhere, European equities and US futures remain firm but off highs. Gold bounced of an 11-week low and erased intraday losses to trade near $1,267 an ounce.

During the New York session, watch for US factory orders data and the Fed beige book.

Main headlines in Europe:

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

EUR/USD ignored PMIs, focused geopolitics and rushed above 1.3150

Ukrainian and Russian presidents agree permanent ceasefire

UK: Services PMI rises against expectations in August

Risk appetite surges as Russia and Ukraine agree ceasefire

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.8%, below expectations (0.9%) in July

Russia denies ceasefire deal

USD/RUB lost all the September gains in a second

Gold recovers from 11-week lows

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Sep 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Credit Agricole: Strong US data could keep the recent USD trend in place - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team point out that Credit Agricole believe that the broad-based rally in USD is driven mostly by data surprises and economic divergence.

Key quotes

"US economic data surprises surged in August and the index has retraced nearly 76% of the 2014 move. Moreover, yesterday’s release of the August ISM manufacturing showed the index at a multi-year high."

"In relative terms, the outperformance of US data surprises against the G10 persists."

"This dynamic has led the 2-year rate to increase 14bp over the past three months, recoupling the association between front-end rates and FX."

"We also note the recoupling of the 2-year rate and FX suggests that economic data, rather than Fed rhetoric, should have a greater impact on price action."

"As such, stronger US economic releases this week could keep the recent USD trend in place, especially at the expense of currencies with central banks in easing mode."

"However, mild pullback is likely given market positioning and possible technical exhaustion."

"A possible pivot point for the DXY index is the 83.73 level – a key retracement level from July 2013 high."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Sep 03, 2014

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CAD firms a Little ahead of BoC - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts observe that ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement today the USD/CAD fell from the 40s back to near 1.0900.

Key quotes

"Fundamentally, we are USD bullish and think the CAD may emerge from other side of the BoC statement a little softer."

"But technically, the short-term charts suggest that the intraday peak may be in for USDCAD here already and that funds may pressure support around 1.09 (200-day MA at 1.0901)."

"Below here should see 1.0870 retested."

"Contrasting fundamental/technical drivers underscore our broader view that we may remain in a 1.08/1.10 range until a stronger sense of direction develops. "

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Sep 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Odds of more ECB easing increase - Ilian Yotov

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ilian Yotov, Portfolio Manager at ATFX Currency Management believes that there is more possibility of the ECB announcing monetary policy easing at the meeting on Thursday due to the further decline in Eurozone CPI and the area's growth grinding to a halt in Q2.

Key quotes

"The ECB President Draghi has also been very clear in recent speeches that the door is wide open to easing monetary policy further."

"In fact, the ECB has announced recently that it is looking to hire consultants to advise the central bank on QE strategies."

"With the ECB one step closer to launching a QE program, the divergence in the monetary policies between the ECB and other central banks is becoming bigger and even more visible, which should keep the EUR under pressure."

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Sep 03, 2014

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BoC keeps interest rate unchanged at 1% in September

FXStreet (Łódź) - In line with forecasts, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its September monetary policy meeting. The bank rate remained at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%.

In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation, currently near the 2% target accelerated due to "energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and other sector-specific factors rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals."

Canadian Q2 GDP has strengthened in line with the central bank's predictions, but a sustained expansion needs to be seen "before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring."

Due to the fact that "the outlook for inflation remain roughly balanced, while the risks associated with household imbalances have not diminished" the BoC decided that keeping its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% was an appropriate move this month.

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Sep 03, 2014

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GBP/USD marking time ahead of BoE

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continues to suffer amid fears of Scottish independence as investors await the Bank of England policy decision.

However, in the absence of surprises from the BoE, as widely expected, attention will quickly return to the Scottish referendum. Jitters of a yes vote has kept the pound under pressure this week, having lost roughly 2 cents over the last sessions.

Goldman Sachs has warned a "yes" vote on September 18, while seemingly unlikely, could have severe consequences for both the Scottish economy and the UK overall.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.6439 yesterday’s NY session, last seen February 12, and is currently going through a consolidation phase just above that level. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6458, virtually unchanged on the day.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.6439 (Sep 3 low), 1.6425 (Feb 12 low) and 1.6400 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances line up at 1.6464 (Sep 4 high), 1.6485 (23.6% Fibo of 1.6643-1.6439) and the 1.6496/1.6500 area (Sep 3 high/psychological level).

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Sep 04, 2014

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United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 302K, above forecasts (300K) in August 29

Read more in Forex News

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Sep 04, 2014

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ECB's Draghi: Governing Council decided to buy simple ABS

FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB Governing Council unexpectedly decided to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, and during the subsequent press conference Mario Draghi announces also the start of ABS purchases.

• ABS purchases will facilitate credit flows to the economy, the ECB head explains.

• Details will be announced on October 2.

• The new measures will have a sizable impact on the ECB balance sheet.

• The measures will support forward guidance on key interest rates.

• "If necessary, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate."

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Sep 04, 2014

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EUR/GBP homing in on 0.7900

FXStreet (London) - Following the ECB decision to cut rates to 0.05% from 0.15%, while the BoE held firm at 0.5%, EUR/GBP has declined sharply today, with 0.7900 in focus.

ECB trims, BoE holds

With the BoE holding policy as expected, the main focus of the day fell on the ECB’s decision to trim rates from 0.15% to 0.05% record lows. In the current press conference, Draghi has commented that the ECB has decided to start ABS purchases aimed at facilitating credit flows to the European economy. The measures are set to start on October 2nd, and will have a sizeable effect on the ECB balance sheet. Further, he added that the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate.

EUR/GBP price action

Having traded in a tight range overnight, sitting above the daily pivot point at 0.7983. However, with the ECB rate cut, spot dived dramatically from a morning high at 0.7992, to a low at 0.7913. While near term momentum looks to have steadied the decline, the rest of Draghi’s speech and presser will be watched closely to see if 0.7900 will be tested.

EUR/GBP Levels

Current price is 0.7919, with resistance ahead at 0.7934 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7940 (Daily Classic S3), 0.7946 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.7952 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7952 (Daily Classic S2). To the downside we see next support at 0.7914 (Daily Low), 0.7905 (Monthly Low), 0.7905 (Weekly Low), 0.7892 (YTD Low) and 0.7891 (Annual Low).

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Sep 04, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB's Draghi: No more cuts planned

FXStreet (Łódź) - During the Q&A part of the press conference Draghi informs that the decision to cut rates and buy loans was not unanimous.

• The unexpected decision will not undermine credibility, the ECB head assures.

• "ECB is at the lower bound where technical adjustments will not be possible."

• QE was discussed by the Governing Council today.

•"This time we would buy outright ABS Senior and Mezzanine tranches only with a guarantee."

• The Governing Council discussed several figures on the ABS plan but for now it is difficult to assess.

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Sep 04, 2014

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