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USD/CAD unable to shake negativity

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate has been unable to muster a sustained push Monday capable of eliminating the entirety of its losses after a prolonged rebound that has already risen out of the depths at 1.0319 (daily low).

In these moments, the USD/CAD is unable to shake its negatively, relegated to losses of -0.22%, currently trading at 1.0340. Technically speaking, the USD/CAD remains capped well fortified by short-term supports at 1.0326, ahead of 1.0296, and 1.0269, notes the Danske Research Team.

USD/CAD strategic bias

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CAD is still trading negatively within the normal bearish correction in the ascending channel. The downside move might extend this week especially that the pair is stable below 1.0430 and Linear Regression Indicators tends to be negative. Breaking 1.0315 might clearly extend the downside move in the upcoming period.”

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July 22, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Portuguese politics remain split – Deutsche Bank

FXstreet.com (New York) - The impending situation in Portugal took a different turn this weekend, culminating in new chapter of drama, notes Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.

Key quotes

In Europe, “a major political development of note on Sunday was in Portugal where the major parties failed to agree on a national salvation pact. However the President announced a new solution to the political situation late last night which involves the ruling coalition government remaining in office after the ruling bloc gave the President additional guarantees that they would keep their coalition together to see through the country’s EU program.”

The President ruled out calling a snap general election two years ahead of schedule and said the ruling coalition would shortly table a confidence motion setting out its economic plans until the end of it term in 2015.

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July 22, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD in fresh 5-week highs around 1.3230

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The euro is accelerating its pace now, lifting the EUR/USD to fresh highs in the boundaries of 1.3230, levels last seen in late June.

EUR/USD bolstered by USD weakness

The heavy selling is still hovering over the greenback, testing the key support at 82.00 and posting multi-week lows at the same time in terms of the US Dollar Index. BBH Global Currency Strategy Team suggested, “Even though the greater uncertainty about the timing of Fed tapering remains the strongest driver in FX markets, the news flow out of Europe also supports our near-term dollar consolidation call. We see scope for the euro to stage a break of the $1.3250 level this week. On the other hand, a move down to the $1.3050-80 area would put this view in doubt”.

EUR/USD critical levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.28% at 1.3223 and a break above1.3255 (high Jun.21) would open the door to 1.3261 (76.4% of 1.3417-1.2755) and then 1.3302 (high Jun.20). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3164 (low Jul.23) followed by 1.3115 (low Jul.22) and finally 1.3106 (cloud base).

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July 23, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD extends the correction higher

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After hitting session lows around 0.9230, the Aussie dollar is picking up pace and pushing the AUD/USD to the current area of 0.9260/65.]

AUD/USD trimming losses

The pair is thus paring earlier losses from overnight tops around 0.9290, ahead of key inflation data in Australia due tomorrow. Gareth Berry, FX Strategist at UBS commented, “Our economists think inflationary pressure will be weak enough to trigger a 25bp RBA cut on August 6. Only 17bp of easing is currently priced in, so we expect significant Australian dollar sensitivity to any surprise in either direction”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.19% at 0.9267 with the next hurdle at 0.9286 (high Jul.23) ahead of 0.9292 (high Jul.17) and then 0.9301 (38.2% of 0.9792-0.8998). On the downside, a breach of 0.9187 (MA10d) would open the door to 0.9180 (MA21d) and then 0.9175 (low Jul.22).

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July 23, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: China weighing on AUD – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities noted the performance of AUD post Chinese data overnight.

Key Quotes:

“A miss on the flash HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI contrasted the better than expected PMI’s from German and France overnight, and the reaction in the FX space reflects that divergence with the EUR at the top of the G10 performance ranks and AUD at the bottom”.

“The AUD had a lot to digest in a short period, with a mixed but overall better than expected Australian inflation report initially lifting the currency above 0.9300 before the flash Chinese PMI unwound any positive tone shortly after”.

“The somewhat better inflation report suggests the threat of an RBA rate cut next month has diminished slightly, but the more pressing concern for markets is the state of activity in China”.

“The flash PMI raises fears of a sub-50 print for the official PMI next week, and such an outcome could re-ignite fears of a ‘hard landing”.

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July 24, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY downside held by 98.57 support – UBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Key quotes

Beginning with the USD/JPY, Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74, suggesting a bullish intraday outlook.”

“As for the GBP/USD, upside is held by a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5171.

Finally, “regarding the USD/CHF, with the MACD settled below the zero line, our focus is on further downside, with initial support at 0.9242 ahead of critical 0.9130.Resistance is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9478.”

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July 24, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD in red within the range

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The GBP/USD is posting meager gains at the time of writing, hovering over 1.5355/60 as the GBP rally is showing signs of exhaustion around the key 1.5400 handle.

GBP/USD recovery faltering

Same as its European counterpart, the pound is recovering ground lost in the recent USD rally from mid-June to early July, although the pair seems to lack vigour to surpass 1.5400 the figure so far. In the opinion of Nick Mannion and Paul Robson, Strategists at RBS, “Risks would be more two-way up at 1.54 and turn to downside as spot approaches 1.57. While we’re still concentrating on the policy event risks of early August to provide the next directional signal, talk of sustained recovery in the UK should be mildly GBP supportive. On this, we continue to believe that the scope for UK data to surprise is becoming increasingly limited”.

GBP/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is down 0.06% at 1.5358 with the next support at 1.5315 (low Jul.24) ahead of 1.5289 (MA30d) and finally 1.5258 (low Jul.22). On the flip side, a break above 1.5390 (high Jul.24) would open the door to 1.5393 (high Jul.23) and then 1.5442 (high Jun.26).

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July 24, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY faces strong correction at 98.57 – UBS

FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Key quotes

Beginning with the USD/JPY, “Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74, suggesting a neutral intraday outlook.”

“Upside is held by a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5171.”

Finally, “regarding the USD/CHF, “with the MACD settled below the zero line, our focus is on further downside, with initial support at 0.9323 ahead of 0.9242.Resistance is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9478.”

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July 25, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY collapses to 98.00

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar continues with its decline against the Japanese Yen and after collapsing around 60 pips from 98.60 in the last few minutes, the USD/JPY has fallen to break the 98.20 key level and to test the 98.00 support, lowest since June 27th.

Currently, the USD/JPY is trading at 98.10, 1.20% negative on the day. The short term perspective remains slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is bullish.

Below the 98.00, next supports are 97.60 and 97.20. On the upside, resistances are now at 98.20, 99.00, 99.10 and 99.85.

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July 26, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR stronger as Spain´s negative GDP met with enthusiasm - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that he can’t recall a negative GDP print (GDP in Q2 -0.1%, released yesterday) being met with such enthusiasm as Spain’s yesterday – the data and the reaction to it highlights the current situation in the euro-zone.

Key Quotes

“Optimism is rising but the improvement is relative and economic conditions will still be very weak over the coming quarters.”

“In our view that means the ECB will come under increasing pressure to do more to stimulate demand after the summer break. The ECB press conference tomorrow will possibly be more about highlighting the fact that conditions are improving but the attempt at “forward guidance” has been pretty poor with the euro stronger and short-term yields higher.

“More will be required by the ECB. The only data from the eurozone today will be German and euro-zone unemployment – which will tell very different stories with periphery weakness leaving EZ unemployment at an expected 12.2% in June – a record.”

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July 31, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Fixed income markets are on tendor hooks

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Fixed income markets are on tendor hooks ahead of the FOMC and other central banks meeting this week.

Treasuries are currently subject to speculation to the Fed trimming its bond buying programme this year. They are poised for a third monthly decline before the Fed decision this evening.

The U.S. are scheduled to announce the size of 10 and 30 yr debt auctions due for next week and could start to cut sales by $40b-$100b during the next year and many anticipate reductions as soon as next month. This has spurred a widening of the 2-10yr yields and the market and prices will now be data sensitive this afternoon.

US ADP employment change will be released and we then have US Q2 GDP in focus. What will be interesting is the markets reaction to the new GDP monitoring system that makes up the data. The US Government has invented a new way of calculating the data that now includes R&D spending, art, music, film royalties, books and theatre, and some will argue it is not comparable with the rest of the global nations. Eye sill be keen to these data and the spreads are already as wide as 231 basis points as demand is decreasing from investors who are looking for longer tem maturities.

The U.S. 10 year yield fell 0.01 pct to 2.60 at 6.30 am EST and the 1.75pct note with May maturity rose $1.25 to 92 23/32.

”

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July 31, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF jumps above 0.9325

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - With a stronger dollar following the upbeat GDP figures, the USD/CHF has jumped around 65 pips in minutes from 0.9270 to break above the intra-day highs around 0.9325 and reach fresh highs around 0.9335.

Currently, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9325, 0.30% positive on the day. The short term perspective is slightly bullish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish.

Above 0.9325, next resistances are at 0.9335, 0.9380 and 0.9400. On the downside, 0.9770, 0.9250 and 0.9180 are supports.

”

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July 31, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD rejected from 1.0340

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After hitting session highs near 1.0340 post US data, the upside in the USD/CAD deflated and is now posting fresh lows around 1.0280.

USD/CAD up and down it goes

The USD bull run lifted the pair to the boundaries of 1.0340 on the wake of better than expected Annualized US GDP during the second quarter, although the upside lost vigour in the proximity of 1.0340, dragging the pair to current intraday lows below 1.0280. “We think there is growing scope for a rebound to the high 1.03 area at least near-term (40-day MA at 1.0367). Bullish above there”, suggested analysts at TD Securities.

USD/CAD key levels

The pair is now retreating 0.19% at 1.0287 with the next support at 1.0258 (low Jul.30) ahead of 1.0253 (low Jul.29) and then 1.0248 (76.4% of 1.0137-1.0609). On the upside, a break above 1.0347 (cloud top) would bring 1.0349 (high Jul.13) and finally 1.0355 (low Jul.17).

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July 31, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF offered sub 0.9300

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/CHF attempted a recovery overnight from support zone 0.9260 but has since been rejected just shy of 0.9300.

USD/CHF is holding up at 0.9280 for the time being on what has been a quiet European session so far across the board. . Today on the event side of things we have a little bit of US data starting out wit the Trade Balance (Jun) expected -$43.10B. Then we will see Redbook Index (YoY) and (MoM) (Jul 28). For Switzerland, we will wait for tomorrow and see the outcomes of CPI (MoM) and (YoY) (Jul).

USD/CHF moves below pivot 0.9293

USD/CHF has filed to the topside of its overnight run and has ticked below the pivot 0.9293. The 20d ma is 0.9370, 50 d ma is 0.9393 and the 200 d ma 0.9359. RSI (9) reads 38.02. Supports are ascending from 0.9130, 0.9176, 0.9226, 0.9246 while spot is currently trading at 0.9275. Resistances are 0.9280, 0.9310, 0.9333 and 0.9395

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY correcting lower

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The EUR/JPY is hovering over the area of 130.25/30 on Tuesday, down from session highs in the proximity of 130.70.

EUR/JPY well supported around 129.00

The par is meandering between 129.00 and 133.00 since early July, reflecting the lack of clear direction in the single currency so far. Strategists Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry at UBS remain bullish on the cross, arguing, “The cross advanced after the test of critical support at 129.77. With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for further upside. Resistance is at 133.80”.

EUR/JPY support and resistance levels

The cross is now losing 0.01% at 130.31 and a breach of 129.81 (low Aug.6) would expose 129.38 (cloud top) and finally 129.35 (low Jul.31). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 130.72 (high Aug.6) followed by 130.91 (Tenkan Sen line) and then 1.31.55 (high Aug.5).

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY to smart from dollar weakness - OCBC Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank is expecting no surprises expected out of the BOJ’s Wed-Thu meeting.

Key Quotes

“The USD/JPY may well continue to smart from broad based dollar softness in the near term.”

“The pair is currently contemplating the 98.00 floor with the next support expected at 97.60 before 97.00.”

“In the interim, 99.00 should cap barring further USD positive rhetoric from the Fed.”

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: BOJ preview: Likely to remain on hold - BAML

FXstreet.com (London) - Strategists Masayuki Kichikawa, Shogo Fujita, Shusuke Yamada, Setsuko Yamashita and Shuichi Ohsaki at BofA Merrill Lynch noted the BoJ coming up this week.

Key Quotes:

“The BoJ's next policy meeting is on 7-8 August. We do not expect it to make any changes to its policy framework, such as the base money target, the pace of asset accumulation, or the IOER”.

“The BoJ might need to consider additional easing in three cases: (1) if downside risks increase for the economic growth and inflation outlook; (2) if doubts arise about the effects of its quantitative and qualitative easing, in the form of an unacceptable rise in long-term yields, for example; and (3) if overseas economies falter and the yen appreciates”.

“With no change expected, we look for rates and FX to be range-bound. We favor receiving the belly, like JPY 3y1y, for its good rolldown”.

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism deteriorates to 45.1 in August against forecasts

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sentiment of US consumers dropped to 45.1 in August from 47.1 in July, the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected an improvement to 47.9.

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism deteriorates to 45.1 in August against forecasts

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sentiment of US consumers dropped to 45.1 in August from 47.1 in July, the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected an improvement to 47.9.

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Sterling could test 200 d ma 1.5545 - BBH

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH notes that Sterling traders are cautious of a surprise from Carney.

Key Quote:

“We think caution of a surprise by Carney has prevented sterling from benefiting from the improved economic data and the modest backing up of interest rates”.

“ Barring, then, a significant surprise from Carney, we suspect sterling could trade higher; recover further against the euro, where the ECB is likely to keep rates low for longer (and risk renewed tensions after the summer holidays and German election)”.

“Against the dollar, sterling can test the late July high near $1.5435. A break of that area, which also corresponds to a retracement objective from the June 17 peak near $1.5750 would likely encourage a test on the 200-day moving average seen near $1.5545”.

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD extends gains above 1.3300

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD picked up fresh momentum and extended gains above 1.3300 after one Fed Lockhart reportedly said the Fed could start tapering its bond-buying program at any of 3 remaining FOMC meetings this year.

USD weighed by taper talk

Amid broad USD weakness, EUR/USD managed to break above the 1.3300 level and climbed to a high of 1.3320 in recent dealings as US stocks and commodities tumble. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3310/15 zone, where it records a 0.4% rise on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.3345 (Jul 31 high) followed by 1.3400 (psychological level), while supports could be found at 1.3255 (100-hour SMA) and 1.3230 (Aug 5 low).

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Upside follow through in Sterling – Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - With BoE Inflation report tomorrow coming up, Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst noted GBP/USD charted an outside day to the topside on Friday, and saw some follow through strength yesterday.

Key Quotes:

“Currently we remain unable to rule out a retest of the 1.5432 July high. Loss of 1.5100 is needed to suggest further losses to the 1.5015 May low then 1.4854/32 support zones”.

“Only should 1.5435 be eroded (not favoured) we will have to allow for further upside gains to 1.5551 the 78.6% retracement”.

“Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Upside corrective. Medium term (1-3 months): Longer term we look for losses to 1.4832, then 1.4229, the 2010 low”.

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bounces after short-lived correction

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD staged a short-lived correction from daily highs, sliding toward the 1.3280 area before finding support.

EUR/USD back above 1.3300

However, EUR/USD managed to climb back above the 1.3300 mark most recently as bears lacked determination to drag the pair lower. The EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.3310 zone, where it records a 0.4% gain on the day in a low-volume quiet summer session, with Fed Evans saying that he wouldn't clearly rule out September tapering weighing on the greenback.

EUR/USD technical levels

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD could face immediate resistances at 1.3320 (daily high) and 1.3345 (Jul 31 high) followed by 1.3400 (psychological level), while supports might be found at 1.3255 (100-hour SMA) and 1.3230 (Aug 5 low).

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Aug 6, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bounces after short-lived correction

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD staged a short-lived correction from daily highs, sliding toward the 1.3280 area before finding support.

EUR/USD back above 1.3300

However, EUR/USD managed to climb back above the 1.3300 mark most recently as bears lacked determination to drag the pair lower. The EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.3310 zone, where it records a 0.4% gain on the day in a low-volume quiet summer session, with Fed Evans saying that he wouldn't clearly rule out September tapering weighing on the greenback.

EUR/USD technical levels

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD could face immediate resistances at 1.3320 (daily high) and 1.3345 (Jul 31 high) followed by 1.3400 (psychological level), while supports might be found at 1.3255 (100-hour SMA) and 1.3230 (Aug 5 low).

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Aug 6, 2013

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