SBlack

Below the 13-day average and price support at 122.62/58 can see a retreat back to 122.39, but with a break of 122.22 needed to warn of a top and a deeper retracement lower to 121.52/50.

Our preference: Long positions above 1.067 with targets @ 1.073 & 1.0765 in extension.Alternative scenario: Below 1.067 look for further downside with 1.062 & 1.056 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

We believe the pullbacks should be buying opportunities though, and that’s what we will look for. On the other hand, if we could break above the 125 handle, the market would be free to go much higher. Between here and there, expect a lot of resistance, so having said that we are buyers on pullbacks but will have to be very patient at this point in time. The interest-rate differential should continue to spread between the United States and Japan. This of course should drive the pair higher given enough time.

Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as correction to fall from 1.3993. Such correction could have completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Break of 1.0461 will extend the decline from 1.3993. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage.

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The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Tuesday, but struggled above the 0.70 level. Because of this, we did up turning back around and forming a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, and as a result it looks like there will continue to be bearish pressure on the Australian dollar itself. On the other hand, if we can break above the top of the resistance barrier at the 0.7050 level, short-term buyers may step into the marketplace and push the Aussie higher.

Range trading continues in USD/JPY between 118.58/121.62. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 121.62 will extend the rebound from 116.13 and target 125.27/85 resistance zone. We'd cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal.

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Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.6905 could extend with another rise. Above 0.7095 will target 0.7278 resistance and above. But in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to complete the consolidation.

The USD/JPY pair fell during the day on Monday, as we continue to bounce around the 120 handle. There is a larger triangle or wedge pattern if you will, and as a result we believe that this market will simply continue to go sideways in general. Having said that, we would anticipate that the buyers should return to the marketplace here and the next session or so, and as a result we are short-term buyers on supportive candles off of the short-term charts.

https://charts.mql5.com/8/951/eurusd-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png

Taking out 1.1280 with conviction could trigger an acceleration into a minor top at 1.1295 and a downtrending angle at 1.1319. A failure to hold 1.1237 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart indicates there is room to the downside with the next target the Fib level at 1.1177. The next target under this level is a short-term uptrending angle at 1.1144.

AUDUSD is weighing on the downside. The market has recently failed at its 55 day ma at .7225 and the focus remains on last weeks low at .6940. Below it lies the .6905 recent low and also the .6774 2004 low. Above .7279 (last weeks high) is needed to alleviate downside pressure and re-target the .7448 July 21 high.

Support shows at 120.02 initially, below which can see a move back to trendline support at 119.31/22, where we would look for a fresh hold. Direct capitulation though can see the range resolved lower for the early September low at 118.65, ahead of 118.29/26. Beneath can mark a more important break lower for 117.35, then 116.15.

EURUSD closed out last week on the back foot and has fallen back towards the recent lows at 1.1105/1087, also the rising 55-day average. Support has again been found here, however, our bias stays lower for an eventual break below 1.1087. This should then allow a slide to the mid-August low/78.6% retracement support at 1.1018/03, with potential trendline support showing now at 1.0896.